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Dani is a really good Mafia player. In games I've played with her has town, she has crushed it. In this game, she hasn't been right about anything. At EOD2 she kept saying she was considering DYH, but at the same time she ended up on GB - someone she didn't really ever develop a read on. Also for someone who has posted a lot of VCA, and who was here at EOD, it's bizarre she had me as a higher likelihood of Mafia over TT. There might be reasons why she's playing not so well this game. But my view is that the most likely reason is that she's Mafia.
Oh I missed this kus you called her by name.
This is pretty meh tbh, and I'm not sure why you have her higher than me on your list when you seem to have more points on me. Also she corrected herself that she had meant me over you in that post, given that I voted last on DYH and when it didn't matter.
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Internet has been out at home so trying to skim and do stuff while. I have access at work. Hopefully things are fixed when I get home though.
I still think Fidei is probably mafia but it seems Koshi is the only one who sees what I see. Still not impressed with how he is pushing to lynch HtS with nothing more than a fear read though. I thought Koshi was more convincing in that one post about HtS than Fidei has been all game.
My PoE is pretty much Fidei and GB and given we have 2? Mislynches before LyLo I can't really be too concerned with the order thatwe lynch them in.
Besides with limited internet its gunna be hard to sway people regarding my read on Fidei past what I've already posted and. Koshi added.
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On April 27 2016 02:09 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2016 00:52 Tictock wrote: Internet has been out at home so trying to skim and do stuff while. I have access at work. Hopefully things are fixed when I get home though.
I still think Fidei is probably mafia but it seems Koshi is the only one who sees what I see. Still not impressed with how he is pushing to lynch HtS with nothing more than a fear read though. I thought Koshi was more convincing in that one post about HtS than Fidei has been all game.
My PoE is pretty much Fidei and GB and given we have 2? Mislynches before LyLo I can't really be too concerned with the order thatwe lynch them in.
Besides with limited internet its gunna be hard to sway people regarding my read on Fidei past what I've already posted and. Koshi added. Why do you read HTS as town? Why am I Mafia?
HtS has been putting in lots of analysis and has been staying pretty objective in her reads. I don't see her pushing an agenda or looking for easy lynches. Koshi said he hated her null read of FF early on but I felt like it showed her not rushing to conlusions and actually wanting to make an effort to read people carefully and correctly. Just in general I feel her flow of thoughts makes sense and the flow of her reads and posts resonates with me. I should go back over her filter to look at how she played around both EoD, but unless my issue at home gets fixed I'm not able to really filter dive easily.
Honestly I kinda do think you are town GB, but it's a kinda weak gut read. Your vote earlier on Gum felt a little off though, what happened to your read on Koshi?
I've been pondering the NK on LS kus that was not who I expected to be killed. However my best guess is that he was killed either because he was well off everyones radar or possibly the last scum thought they had a blue read on him.
Honestly I'm tempted to be a mule and just vote Fidei even if there is little chance of him getting lynched. I should prob make a better effort than that though... Then again we have tons of time and possibly even another blue role to help find the last scum so I'm not terribly modivated to reread and such.
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On April 27 2016 02:19 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2016 00:52 Tictock wrote: Internet has been out at home so trying to skim and do stuff while. I have access at work. Hopefully things are fixed when I get home though.
I still think Fidei is probably mafia but it seems Koshi is the only one who sees what I see. Still not impressed with how he is pushing to lynch HtS with nothing more than a fear read though. I thought Koshi was more convincing in that one post about HtS than Fidei has been all game.
My PoE is pretty much Fidei and GB and given we have 2? Mislynches before LyLo I can't really be too concerned with the order thatwe lynch them in.
Besides with limited internet its gunna be hard to sway people regarding my read on Fidei past what I've already posted and. Koshi added. TT do you see any way that it is HTS or gumshoe? I literally cannot understand why you and HTS continue to hard TR each other despite both of you being implicated by the EOD2 VCA. Maybe Artanis included Masons and didn't put it in the opening post??
I'm not sure how we are implicated by VCA... Sure it doesn't support either of us being town but that doesn't make us mafia.
I also still think the last mafia was likely on the DYH wagon as I said because mafia is in a rough spot this game and prob felt the need to make a play to gain towncred.
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Ok I stayed at work to read and catchup incase my internet is still down at home.
Voting Gum because he is incessently using timestamps to prove shit, and used the term "brah"
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Oh yay, my internet is back up at home!
Means I wont have to head into work early just to check in and post. However you all should be aware that I am not able to be around for EoD today. I have to leave for me 2nd job almost 2 hours before.
So my last post wasn't legit, I was half just being snarky and half fishing for reactions. I actually thought the whole argument between Gum and GB looks really Town on Town to me and the way HtS came into it did not look at all like Mafia trying to fence sit it looked like she was really trying to read what was going on when mafia would be just fine with town fighting each other like that.
Thus I'm im left with my scum read on Fidei, who I'll be voting unless there was anything interesting that came up from my kinda silly reaction test.
Wow ok basically nothing has happened since I made that post, and I think Gum was the only person who reacted to it.
On April 27 2016 06:29 gumshoe wrote: I'm sorry, I got a bit zealous, I do that when I feel scum is right I front of me( in the other game I was sure 2 people were scum together,and tried to make things try to fit as such, this has less to do with my alignment and more with my flaws )
Gb is scum I'm sure of that, but yeah I got a bit carried away and fucked up / : on top of thinking gb is scum, I want him to be scum and that is a poor mindset I admit and one I'll try to avoid going forward.
I'll look at hts tic and fedie a filters again in case there's something world consuming in there, but I'm pretty confident about gb, but I'll admit could just be mah confirmation bias flaring.
Also no one should ever be lynched for using the word brah, it's a lovely word.
My initial thought is why are you so apologetic in this post Gum? Seems kinda odd to apologize for pushing who you think is scum unless they just flipped town.
Though I saw this post...
On April 27 2016 04:46 gumshoe wrote: ah fuck, yeah theres a big jump T_T my bad only the gloat post counts.
sorry for the mistake gb ) : you still scum
So maybe it was more related to that.
Yea I see nothing from Fidei today that changes my mind. Koshi did more to push HtS today than Fidei has (even though he keeps saying HtS is his choice of lynch), and his reasoning felt a lot more believable... well "believable" maybe isn't the right word, Organic?
Here you go, for comparison. + Show Spoiler [Fidei's] +Dani is a really good Mafia player. In games I've played with her has town, she has crushed it. In this game, she hasn't been right about anything. At EOD2 she kept saying she was considering DYH, but at the same time she ended up on GB - someone she didn't really ever develop a read on. Also for someone who has posted a lot of VCA, and who was here at EOD, it's bizarre she had me as a higher likelihood of Mafia over TT. There might be reasons why she's playing not so well this game. But my view is that the most likely reason is that she's Mafia. + Show Spoiler [Koshi's] +On April 26 2016 18:01 Koshi wrote:Reasons why I am now voting HTS: 1) To raise awareness that also HTS could be mafia. 2) Because she wrote 5 lines on why FF was null early in the game that made me puke. 3) Because she wrote this to defend DYH, which made 0 sense because that wasn't even anything DYH did: Show nested quote +Koshi - read Shapelog's filter and tell me that DYH's conclusion on him isn't reasonable. He has ZERO concrete reads. Talking about himself doesn't make him scum but the argument that Shape isn't doing or saying anything alignment related with his posts is pretty spot on. I was hoping I'd have seen some clarification after I AFKed but not much in the way of that either. 4) Because I can
All I really see from Fidei is him saying how town he is for voting DYH and not hopping on any other wagons. Which as both Koshi and I have been pointing out looks kinda weird when you look at his filter kus he twice states he is going to filter DYH and really comes up with nothing from them. He didn't really push any of his other scumreads (I don't even recall what happened to his read on Gum, Fidei solo voted Gum D1).
Like I could legit see DYH in mafia QT going "Sorry dude I can't really be bothered and LS is actually pushing me enough I could be lynched, you should bus me early for the cred and hopefully stay off the radar for a few days at least" might even explain why LS was the NK...
At the very least everyone should give his filter a once over while putting aside the fact that he voted 2nd on DYH (at least just for a moment) and see for yourselves if Koshi and I are just talking out our asses or not.
##Vote F-word-dude
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Another thing to note about Fidei is that he has done jack all today but defend himself. He's just stuck with his PoE list, and I still don't get why he wants to lynch HtS over me who has far more points about in his filter.
I mean I get things come up and whatnot he has been around this phase but it's getting closer and closer to deadline with no real effort to push his scumreads or refine his PoE list.
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On April 28 2016 00:45 Fidei86 wrote: Well I didn't get up early because I'm lazy. And I've been at work all day. But I'm kicking off early to get home and start looking seriously through filters.
Also HTS you were here during the votes. This is ludicrous. You know me. You think as the last scum I bussed my last buddy to go solo? And that I did it when it was absolutely not necessary? Or that my call for 'consolidating' was actually a call to move off DYH? Yeah, if I'm alive at the end you absolutely have to look again at everyone. But voting me now over people who didn't vote scum last round on a last minute shenanigan? Come on.
Why are you trying to convince her you are town, when she is your prime scumread?
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On April 28 2016 02:18 Tumblewood wrote: I don't like fidei's response to being pushed this is a shitty reason and very easy to refute, but he's responding from a ground of "nah you guys are so silly I'm confirmed town" then again, I'd expect him to prioritize his survival a lot more if he were last scum hmmm not seeing anyone more convincing though
Aren't those the same thing? Trying to argue that he is confirmed town IS playing for survival...
In regards to your post before this one, what exactly is my comfort zone?
And yea Shape is kinda just floating this game, not sure that is AI if he's been having RL issues. Will revist him if Fidei flips green I suppose kus while it's unlikely he's mafia having been pushed/voted by both SL and DYH I suppose it's possible.
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On April 28 2016 02:57 Fidei86 wrote: -_-
You know, for all the people voting me, I don't see anyone really considering anyone else (apart from gumshoe and GB against each other). When I flip town you're all going to have to rethink things. As far as I can see you're all just meandering towards my lynch. You're wasting time and this is exactly what mafia wants.
This is not true. HtS was on GB till recently. Koshi, while seemingly taken with my read/case on you was definitly looking into HtS at one point.
I even held off my vote because I was considering GB even though my gut read on him has been town. Well ok having my internet out was part of this as well.
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On April 28 2016 03:35 Fidei86 wrote:Alright. I'm going to switch off reading Dani's filter. I think her actions at EOD1 are sufficient to keep her safe for today, and I have a bunch more filters to get through before EOD. My working to get to this point is as follows: DAY 1HTS's top scum read is LS all day. She consistently pushes him and consistently reads him as scum. She does not drop this read through EOD. At 22:44 BST she makes the following post: Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 06:44 Half the Sky wrote: 19/40
I'm back, skimmed the thread, and reading filters. I'm seeing the contrarian (non-meta) reasons for townreads on LS to be coming down to a suicidal push on me, the meta reasons for reading him town are out the window unless you've forgotten Cell Mafia so quickly so any emotion he is displaying he's already proven he can fake that as mafia. So I am completely disregarding that.
LS would still be my top active lynch. Definitely wouldn't lynch Koshi or Damdred and I need to re-read Tictock, the push on Tumbleweed seemed weird.
For the inactives, just skimming filters, sicklucker is by far the top lynch for me in that category. Double checking gumshoe from the beginning atm, but if people aren't lynching LS, then I'd lynch sicklucker for consolidation. Note that she pings SL and says she is reconsidering gumshoe. At 23:02 BST she switches voting to SL. At that stage, she takes sicklucker to FOUR votes, with the next nearest wagon being FF on TWO. However, with town super spread out, it might well have appeared to HTS that SL was done for, and she wanted the town credit. Call it a bus of opportunity. At 23:19 BST she makes the following post, which is as far as I can see basically the only 'read' she makes of FF: Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 07:19 Half the Sky wrote:22/40 On April 22 2016 07:14 Fecalfeast wrote: I'd really prefer to play later in the game where it's easier to make reads. I've posted reads when I had them. Now THIS is a remnant of the Dark Tournament (mafia) Fecalfeast. >_< Finally at 23:23 BST she makes the following post, switching to FF: Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 07:23 Half the Sky wrote: 24/40
I switched to FF. My head is spinning right now. From a read flow perspective, it makes no sense for her to jump off her second top scum read (SL). HOWEVER, at this stage Damdred had voted SL at 23:09 BST, taking FF to THREE votes (and SL to three as well), and then gumshoe voted FF (with a detour at SL) at 23:16 BST taking SL to four and FF to three. HTS thus moved OFF a scum wagon that was behind and ON TO a town wagon that was already ahead. It is possible that she was looking to fortify SL's safety, I grant you. I also have a number of suspicions about Dani's play, mostly revolving around her having very few sustained pushes, asking lots of questions and not really doing anything with the information, voting FF basically out of the blue on EOD1 and GB again with not much explaining on EOD2. But I think I probably have a lot of fear / confirmation bias in my read of her. And I'd rather spend my time going through other filters than trying to reason out in my head why scum Dani votes EOD as she did.
I don't understand why any of this leads you to a townread or "keeps her safe". You keep saying the EoD stuff here could be a bus then go "eh I have a fear read"
Sounds more like you are giving up kus you can't find a convincing argument...
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On April 28 2016 04:05 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 07:06 Tictock wrote:On April 22 2016 07:03 sicklucker wrote: oh votings today I thought it was tormorow? why am I being lynched I gotta ask I think at this point the onus is on you to tell us why we shouldn't lynch you. As in, you really haven't done much at all this game. Ticktock, if you are here, I really think you have to explain this post and your vote D1. At this point, we were 24 minutes before lynch. At that stage, voting was highly contested between FF and SL. Three minutes later, Damdred switched his vote taking it to three on SL and three on FF. SL hammered at 23:16. You were in the thread. You saw a highly contested lynch, and nobody else was going to move to TW. Yet you didn't move.
Felt like it was stupid for SL to go "why are you lynching me?" rather than doing something, so I was telling him he should probably do something.
Not that I expect you to believe me, but I was thinking about swapping to SL but when everyone started to shift to FF (who I didn't want to lynch) I decided to just stay put on Tumble.
I think this was the post I made when that was my thinking.
On April 22 2016 07:14 Tictock wrote:Is it bad that I'm tempted to just leave my vote on Tumble in case he's scum and I'm on track to having a perfect voting record this game? + Show Spoiler +That is pretty bad huh? + Show Spoiler +Honestly I'm just not sure who I'd preffer to lynch... + Show Spoiler +SL's sudden return could him just trying to shake off the lynch if he's scum here though... but for some reason I'm inclined to believe him
Which you are free to WIFOM as me having TMI calling out exactly what SL was doing, and to further that WIFOM I give you this post I made N1
On April 22 2016 23:54 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 07:35 sicklucker wrote: ballz wont be able to catch up till later tonight. go raptors! Fairly dissapointed there was no follow through on this. Means SL basically just showed up as a wagon formed up on him, complained he didn't have time kus of another game, then fucked off as soon as the lynch was over. I was going to call-out GB for saying Damdred was a hypocrit but he seems to have realized that was quite an exxageration. Haven't really had a chance to relook at EoD yet, and there is a chance I wont be able to till after daypost. I bet there was at least one scum on FF, at most there was two, but more than likely scum were all spread out in the voting.
On April 28 2016 04:09 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 06:38 Tictock wrote:On April 22 2016 06:16 Damdred wrote: Idk I kinda just want to lynch sl
He thinks koshi is town and voted him anyway total throw away vote.
Hasn't really done anything.
His ls read is strange to a point so are a few others.
But I'm having a hard time finding someone I want to lynch in the actives I feel like I'm having more of an issue finding people I solidly think are town this game. Koshi feels like town Koshi, but he's kinda attacked half the game and his LS read was bull. HtS and Fidei are probably my strongest townreads based on tone, activity, and drive to solve the game. You (Damdred) strike me as town for starting off trying to generate discussion and trying to lead town now when votes are all over. Shape feels a little better to me having reread the game. I thought the way he approached a few of his reads felt towny, though tbf I think I'm largely going on something I noticed about his read on me so I take it with a grain of salt. GB and FF are floating in a "I think they are town... maybe" space for me. Which leaves me: 2. sicklucker 7. DoYouHas 8. Tumblewood 11. LightningStrike 12. gumshoe With regards to my post above, I also refer to the above post, where TT basically town reads FF and scum reads SL. But he does not vote to save his town read over one of his scum reads. And he posted on at least two occasions (before and after) how bad the lynch was. This is very suspicious to me. I shall continue reading your filter. I think my response to your other post covers this one too.
Though saying I had a real town read on FF is overstating things, he was off my list of D1 lynches for sure though.
Actually thanks for quoting this one, means I had decent reads D1 with the 2 flipped scum in my lynch pool. + Show Spoiler +For more WIFOM I am known to bus as scum. Too bad I was wrong on Tumble and LS, and more than likely was wrong on Gum as well.
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On April 28 2016 05:30 Fidei86 wrote: Fuck it.
I am the Jailkeeper. I saved Damdred N1 (I got roleblocked) and Tumble N2. I saved Damdred right at the end of N1 - I was on HTS before that, because I figured she's strong town and a natural N1), but at the end I thought Damdred was a) more towny, b) more universally read as townie and therefore c) most likely to be the shot.
I was fucking raging after Damdred flipped. I sent Artanis like three PMs yelling.
I did not want to claim because we desperately need a save to get another mislynch and avoid 3v1 LYLO.
The reason I've played like this is in large part because I thought that my killing DYH was SO TOWNIE that I might be the shot N3. And I really wanted to survive long enough to save TW. Obviously me drawing attention to myself worked too well.
I am claiming now to give town enough time to find a new lynch. I think it should be TT.
Can you please all now start thinking about the game rather than just waiving through this fucking mislynch on me.
Humm, I'm not sure what to make of the bolded here.
This would only apply to your play N2.
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On April 28 2016 05:36 Fidei86 wrote: There is no need to do that now when we still have AT LEAST two more nights and a mafia roleblocker.
I am blue, but if I WASN'T then the CCs should come the day before LYLO, so town can lynch the competing claims.
No there is no chance of there being another blue if you are in fact the JK, so if there is another blue they 100% should claim now.
No way do we have Vig + JK + ??? for town in a 13p setup.
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On April 28 2016 05:45 Fidei86 wrote: Mafia kills are factional. So I cannot block them. I'm basically a nerfed medic (targets are RBed as well).
There could absolutely be another blue.
Nope.
Idk I'm not terribly convinced by this claim, and it bugs me that Fidei suggests that another blue should wait to claim in LyLo when that's like the worst time to have a claim war.
Now I've got 10 min left to think about things...
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On April 28 2016 05:54 Half the Sky wrote: 28/40
Tictock, Fidei is rubbish at setup speculation, that I know from his gameplay in NSM18, so him not factoring in claim wars/claim analysis well here is not alignment indicative.
He's not the lynch regardless. Did you have thoughts on GB?
I thought he looked pretty towny in that argument vs Gum.
Idk I'm kinda tempted to Yolo vote Shape, main reason why he seems to be town in my mind is because both of the other scum voted for him but that's pretty weak.
Then again GB giving up on his gum read and posting this doesn't inspire confidence in my TR on him
On April 28 2016 04:21 GlowingBear wrote: 29
I must say, although as weird as it sounds, that I'm starting to believe TT is the last Mafia.
Does anyone understand why?
I assume the why is because I've been pushing Fidei so hard who I guess has to be blue (I think everyone posted since his claim?)
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Bah idk, on the one hand GB is a good lynch for suddenly going "Hey I think TT is scum, do you know why?" and I'd also be pretty happy to mess up his record as scum.
On the other hand I really can't say with and confidence that I believe Shape to be town.
...
So I guess I'll vote GB.
If you all lynch me we should still have plenty of time to work this out so no worries.
All for me, I'm out till well after deadline.
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Dam, that sucks.
I'm mildly satisfied that my gut read on him was right though...
If it turns out town only had a Vig this game and Fidie is getting away with a fakeclaim I'm gunna be upset, but I'll worry about that postgame.
For now I guess I'll take things back to square one kus my PoE has apparently been shit.
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On April 29 2016 07:29 Hapahauli wrote: Fidei86 (Jailkeeper) has died.
Good I can put that tinfoil to rest.
I haven't really read HtS's case on me yet, but she made good choices picking out my strongest scum games.
Pretty sure I post just to post as either alignment though... I mean if that's what you wanna call it when I make posts like this one.
(if this weren't a post restricted game I might well just stop and post now, but...)
Without reading filters Shape seems like the obv choice from my PoV, but I should do you all justice and actually read HtS's filter (Hell just the fact that she's been making nonstop WoT type posts might be something to note, kus god does it make me not wanna read her filter) and recheck Gum.
I could tinfoil Koshi, but honestly he might deserve the win if he is mafia here. The buddying has been spot on if mafia.
All for now, I'll do things when I feel like it.
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Actually I will say this in my defense.
I've been way too wrong to be mafia this game, especially when I have almost always bussed teammates who played like DYH and SL did this game.
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