|
On February 08 2016 01:20 disformation wrote:
I think JAT said something about Koshi's vote not being scum indicative.
Meanwhile I wasn't able to find a single read in darthfoley's filter. Like he has a bunch of "I dislike x" and "I like y" but besides being most confident in zyrre being scum he has not a single solid read.
Truth is, I don't have many scum reads. I've found this game particularly hard to scum read given the Palmar --> Zyrre lynch wagon dynamic. All we actually know is that a bunch of people followed my wagon and lynched a noob town who looked scummy, then killed three strong towns. That isn't very alignment indicative of many people until we know or have a better understanding of what Palmar is.
My town reads/people i'm more willing to trust right now are Rels, you and I tentatively lean town on boxerfred. He seems to me to be genuinely frustrated with people who are either trolling or not playing serious (Chez, kush, Moosy). I'm actually starting to TR Kush as well.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 08 2016 00:54 Rels wrote:This post got way bigger than I though, I'm trying my best to organize it. I don't like Koshi at all, he might very well be scum. Here is why: 1D1 the only real thing he did was pushing kush + opposing Palmar's lynch. That's it. No read on anyone else, especially Zyrre. Like, I think this is the only post about Zyrre in his filter: Show nested quote +On February 05 2016 08:10 Koshi wrote:On February 05 2016 08:05 Damdred wrote:
That zyrre post is so bad for so many reasons It actually isn't. I can see him believe that. I can believe it. Then: Show nested quote +On February 06 2016 02:58 Koshi wrote:
Kush comming in and giving a townread on Palmar and rescind a townread on Zyrre is not doing things. Well, he ended up voting Zurre with kush.
2I don't like that he townreads Palmar early using a "secret tell" Palmar apparently only does when he's scum. Where is the fucking tell now ? Then, he scumreads Palmar more and more as votes piles up on him, and votes him, but is still against his lynch. In particular, the last post is super weird in the progression: Show nested quote +On February 04 2016 20:51 Koshi wrote:
Ugh... Palmar is almost certainly not mafia here. I have a pretty good tell for him when he is mafia. It's not this. Show nested quote +On February 04 2016 22:31 Koshi wrote:On February 04 2016 22:28 Rels wrote:On February 04 2016 22:17 justanothertownie wrote:On February 04 2016 22:12 disformation wrote:On February 04 2016 20:20 Palmar wrote:
This game is going to be painful because I'm going to obsess about finding the "superbia" mafia and never give anyone a townread ever.
I feel I should just write off disfo as town, for example, but I don't want to I like this post. Paranoia is a good town trait to have imo. In general yes. But not to a point where you don't trust anybody at all because that's not how you win as town. And Palmar who is probably the most experienced player in this game perfectly knows it. This wasn't the first time he townread a mafia, in fact he always says "there is always that one mafia who slips into my townreads" so this should not be shocking to him. That's true. Palmar, you spent all game lynching scum last game until you died AND you did say that a scum would always slip in your townreads. I have no idea why you feel like "This game is going to be painful"; it doesn't make sense after your amazing reads last game. This I can agree with. Would expect Palmar to be even more cocky tbh. Show nested quote +On February 06 2016 03:30 Koshi wrote:On February 06 2016 03:03 NocturneMage wrote:On February 06 2016 00:46 Koshi wrote:On February 06 2016 00:44 VayneAuthority wrote:
I can also agree with kush and policy moosydoosy for excessive emoticon use AKA the rsoultin law VA bestest buddy. Please vote Kush. This is lazy town Palmar. Kill him D3 if he is alive and still trash. How are you sure that Palmar can't replicate this as scum? And what are your thoughts on marv's point about him not having direction? The reason I ask you this is from what I previously read, marv/JAT, you seemed to be in a lot of conversation at times, together. So I think you are in a best position to evaluate this. I am not sure. If Palmar didn't omgus JAT and then left I wouldn't even consider him as possible mafia. Palmar as town can be shit and 100% afk. I have played more than enough times with Palmar to know this. If we vote Palmar and he flips town we just lost an important player for nothing. And I wouldn't even be surprised if it happened. Pure coin flip lynch and results can be disastrous. But if people want to do it I am not opposing the lynch vocally. Show nested quote +On February 06 2016 03:48 Koshi wrote:VE has been lynched 26 times, Vivax and Palmar have been lynched 24 times. This doesn't proof anything but something funny I saw in database. Just proof that Palmar is also shit as town. Show nested quote +On February 06 2016 04:06 Koshi wrote:
I got indoor soccer at 2100. But it will take a while after I played and I might only be around on phone depending on what we will do.
I am not against a Palmar lynch in theory. But I strongly suggest not lynching him. Show nested quote +On February 06 2016 04:12 Koshi wrote:
Fuck I need to go........ I disagree with this lynch 100% There is all this progression from "100% town" to "if he's town it's a bad lynch" to "I'm not really against Palmar's lynch but I think we should wait" to finally ... "I disagree with the lynch 100%". IT MAKES NO SENSE, especially 6 minutes after saying "I am not against a Palmar lynch in theory".
3Finally, I dislike all the random questions / opinions that is in his filter, and that doesn't serve any purpose / does not lead to anything. Examples: Show nested quote +On February 05 2016 02:14 Koshi wrote:
Also darthfoley might be buddying me because that defense was actually really bad. Show nested quote +On February 05 2016 02:54 Koshi wrote:
I actually don't think JAT is mafia this game. I feel dirty. Show nested quote +On February 05 2016 03:04 Koshi wrote:
Damdred his posts have been really bad. Holy mozes. Show nested quote +On February 05 2016 20:22 Koshi wrote:On February 05 2016 20:02 Rels wrote:On February 05 2016 19:57 marvellosity wrote:On February 05 2016 14:53 ritoky wrote:On February 05 2016 14:50 Damdred wrote:
Surprised you and nm didn't catch it playing the game.
moosey scum team is va, oneg and koshi.
Ehats wrong with that team if you're talking about how he dumbtelled 3 mafia @ the end instead of 4 in a 17 person game, that's kinda meh in terms of dumb tells. i saw Rels mention it on the last page, and I thought the same as this post here - it's kinda meh in terms of dumbtells. But maybe the way it happens makes it more believable/genuine. Don't really know what to think exactly It's part meta too. I can very clearly see this coming from Moosy. In one game I've played with him, he was town!roleblocker but didn't know he could stop scum KP because he didn't read the OP. In addition, Moosy is super serious as scum; he could replicate his "silly" town meta pretty easily, but I don't think he would think of this dumbtell. It doesn't even feel like a forced dumbtell: he played a game until there were only 3 names left. It could have go unnoticed very easily. I didn't notice it. Do you have a scumgame of his? I only remember 1 town game. It was horrid. Show nested quote +On February 06 2016 04:07 Koshi wrote:On February 06 2016 04:05 boxerfred wrote:
also i reviewed that va/nm thing and I come to the conclusion that my original thought (one of them being mafia) is bullshit. there's no indicator for that and I obviously followed disformation who had this thought first. funny enough, he had it from ritoky who's originally a scumread of mine so wow I should read more details. This post looks bad. But w.e Where is the follow up ? Especially in Moosy's and BF's case, where he shows he has suspicions but don't talk about them anymore.
Also darthfoley might be buddying me because that defense was actually really bad.
referencing this comment
@Koshi I appreciate your compliment. I hope I will continue to impress later, when I have time to actually analyze interactions in a meaningful way. Put me in, coach.
Does that actually look like a real attempt at buddying? I thought it was clearly tongue in cheek. The only person you could actually say i'm buddying is Palmar. Not Koshi off of one dumb sentence. But this interaction rubbed me the wrong way because he never came back to either point (me buddying him, or why my defense was bad). Koshi has been fine throwing out these "your post is terrible" reads but has rarely, as Rels mentioned, followed up on anything.
I can't read Chez, Moosy or Onegu to save my life, so meh. I'm also suspicious of marv a bit, because I get a scummy vibe looking back to his filter regarding the 3kp N1, and how he reacted...
On February 07 2016 08:07 marvellosity wrote:
So who made the worst shot of all time?
On February 07 2016 08:10 marvellosity wrote:
Ok just read roles it could have been mafia. Super sad if we don't have a vigi in a 17 player game
##vote palmar
Never came up with anything
On February 07 2016 08:24 marvellosity wrote:
If town caused one of those kills town should really collectively concede for being terrible, so let's pray it was the mafia role
Idk three posts about the same single event with no conclusions drawn or scenarios talked about. This just looks over the top from town for me. Plus, marv really just read the roles? I'm really not a fan. If Marv is mafia, he won't even look that bad if Palmar flips town, because he and others will frame it as "we had to because XYZ!" and i'm not really sure he's done much outside of try to hang Palmar by his balls lol
|
well that's dumb. you should probably do that
|
I hope Palmar flips mafia because if he flips town we're back to square 1 and lose a very good townie. I'm fine voting for him if that's what gives us the most potential information
|
Marv's Palmar progression
+ Show Spoiler +On February 04 2016 22:34 marvellosity wrote:
jat: i don't have a particular opinion on Palmar On February 04 2016 23:00 marvellosity wrote:
oh Palmar gave a longer/prettier answer. well boo On February 05 2016 20:01 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2016 18:57 justanothertownie wrote:
Ah, misunderstood your post Koshi. Carry on.
Would have to check the meta part of NMs Palmar case but regardless I still agree with the conclusion. Maybe we should just try to lynch that lazy jackass today. Very tempting. ##unvote
##Vote Palmar*holds out hand* On February 06 2016 02:35 marvellosity wrote:okay, quick post before I go. Thoughts on the lynch: Palmar - my vote is on him, and he's a decent lynch. Actually I think his absence today is kinda non-admissable, i think as either alignment he'd show up if he could. Not totally sure though. My main issue with Palmar is that he has quite a few posts but none of them are really pushing anything forward or finding mafia. Ironically if his filter was half the size I'd be more inclined to think he was town. If he comes in later while i'm out and makes a case on me, lynch him. Just lynch him. He knows I am town (or should at least feel i am) and would never want to lynch me today, he'd only be doing it to destabilise whatever influence I have on town. And yes he'd do it even after I wrote this. He may come back and look town, which is nice. I'd also note it's not beyond mafia Palmar to afk and hope for the best when he's mafia, even if i do rather think he'd come and try do stuff. Zyrre - I wrote stuff already. But really I just want people to do this. I will make it easy. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/503437-star-wars-the-mafia-awaken?user=Zyrrehttp://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/422313-newbie-mini-mafia-xlv?user=ZyrreHis filter from this game, and his towngame in the newbie. Just read the first page of the newbie game. Just do it.. I find it very, very hard to believe these 2 filters are from the same alignment. The filters are just *so* *different*. I'm not even going to do any explanation. If you can't see it, stab yourself in the face for being terrible. For him to be town I'd have to believe he's just SOOOOO overawed by this game (I do not believe this for a moment, not to this extent). I think I trust jat. tbh if I didn't think I was coming back at all before deadline I'd place my vote on Zyrre right now. But I will leave it on Palmar for now and change it later as necessary. On February 06 2016 07:09 marvellosity wrote:
I can't escape the socialising so I've not read anything. So many palmar votes and not so on Zyrre. I'm gonna vote Zyrre, he's my top % play.
Palmer could well still be mafia but the votecount made me a little nervous and I really think Zyrre is mafia. Maybe palmar can have another day?
unvote
##vote Zyrre
I'm not going to be able to read ppls replies to this really so just do what you think is best. This is what I think is best for now and that's all I have control over.
I agree that Marv was not invested in the Palmar lynch and was quite wishy washy for someone who apparently has the hard reads on him.
"I think his absence is non-admissible... but it could come from either alignment... not totally sure though... oh yea btw if he comes back while i'm gone and says im scum, DONT LISTEN TO HIM (even though I just said his play could come from either alignment") If his lack of play could come from either alignment, it's false to say it's non-admissible.
He also says that if he thought he wasn't going to come back before the deadline, he would vote for Zyrre, but that he's keeping his vote on Palmar and change it later if necessary. Except that a few paragraphs earlier he specifically told everyone not to drink the Palmar Kool-Aid and keep your vote on him.
He then jumps on the "VC is making me nervous train at #1319" (I had commented on it at #1308) and switches to Zyrre. This progression/line of reasoning throughout is suspicious to me and i'm scum reading marv
Get Zyrre ML D1 is easy, while knowing it will leave Palmar in an almost impossible hole to fight out of D2 given the rapid vote swing, guaranteeing another mislynch.
|
Sure, we can lynch Palmar and if he flips mafia I'll rescind my suspicion 
|
Okay, and he didn't case you
|
Meh why would mafia!Palmar play such a weak mafia game? He seems like a player who could be quite directive with the Town conversation as mafia D1. He's basically asking to get lynched. It just seems too lynch-baity, even if we kinda have to do it.
|
On February 08 2016 04:27 nooniansoong wrote:Show nested quote +On February 08 2016 04:23 marvellosity wrote:
I also said objectively I thought Zyrre had the highest chance to flip mafia even while leaving my vote on palmar
Everything I've done makes sense because it comes from a town perspective so it's easy for me to explain I'm curious why you didn't leave your vote on the player you thought has the highest chance of flipping scum.
Yes, exactly. Town is generally about the percentages game, and you (marv) are good enough to play objectively.
"Objectively I did the thing that was sub-optimal from Town pov and that makes me town"
|
|
|
Especially if Palmar is town
|
On February 09 2016 01:07 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2016 08:18 disformation wrote:
Zyrre (8): darthfoley, nooniansoong, Chezinu, boxerfred, marvellosity, Damdred, Koshi, justanothertownie, Palmar
Palmar (7): marvellosity, justanothertownie, VayneAuthority, NocturneMage, Rels, disformation, Zyrre, ritoky, boxerfred, Damdred
justanothertownie (1): Palmar, Onegu
VayneAuthority (1):MoosyDoosy
nooniansoong (0): Koshi, marvellosity, justanothertownie, Rels, boxerfred
NocturneMage (0),disformation disformation
ritoky (0): boxerfred, Chezinu,
Onegu (0):, nooniansoong
Disformation (0): Chezinu,Chezinu
MoosyDoosy (0): nooniansoong Okay. Was looking at these a bit more. Palmar wagonAs I said before: scum very probably doesn't want to be all stuck on the same train. So especially if palmar is town there should be at least 1 scummer on palmar. UNLESS it is really MD+Onegu +2 ppl on the Zyrre train which is possible. The three ppl voting Palmar that are not conf. from my pov are: NM, Rels and VA. NM: I wouldn't put it past him to make a case on Palmar D1 and try to get him lynched as scum. That is also an incredibly scary tinfoil. On the other hand I really am not able to legit scum read him. So I think he is town (for now). Rels: not having looked too close at Rels, yet. Should probably do this, since his scum game is pretty good. But on the other hand he has done nothing that screams town to me either. Actually he scum read both of zyrre and palmar and I am not 100% sure why he decided to prefer a palmar lynch. Though skimming his filter his approach to the game looks rather town. VA: his vote is nice and early, but he seemed very not invested into this. Only mention of zyrre is that the zyrre lynch seems too easy. So yeah this vote does not look great. Especially if Palmar is town. Zyrre wagontown lean on darthfoley. TR on marv. if koshi is scum probably not for this vote. cause jat and marv said so. leaves me with the trio of nooniansoong, Chezinu, boxerfred. No good read on any of those three tbh. Hope we have some investigation roles for those tbh. But I can easily see 2 scummers in there, especially if Palmar is scum. Whoever replaces in for Onegu has some huge town rainbows to plant into the thread.
Actually @ rels: what made you vote palmar over zyrre?
This game shouldn't be too hard if Palmar flips scum. Most likely 3 or maybe even all 4 mafia out of
darthfoley, koshi, kush, Chez, boxerfred, and marv. I realized i was being kinda stupid scum reading marv earlier, so we have (most likely) a 2/4 or 3/4 chance of lynching mafia between the other four if Palmar flips scum-- i'm not including myself because i'm just a good-to-do X Wing pilot.
I'm going to go through their filters later tonight hopefully, but I haven't liked Koshis posts for much of the game. I have a lot of work today, so it may have to wait until night.
|
On February 09 2016 07:14 NocturneMage wrote:darthfoley, regardless of Palmar's flip, solo voters are always poor. When and if you should get the chance, please comment on MoosyDoosy, who solo voted, and if you have any thoughts on my post. Thanks. Show nested quote +On February 09 2016 03:02 NocturneMage wrote:
at disformation
between the two solo voters, MoosyDoosy is more likely mafia than Onegu. it isn't super likely a scumteam would have 2/4 off wagon, even so look at other attributes.
onegu there is absolutely zero indicative information either way.
MoosyDoosy could be scum because:
(1) repeated question dodging/not giving reads when requested (at least 3 occasions I've counted) - has bailed on me twice when questions have been asked directly of him, once day 1 and once early day 2
(2) reasons for scumreading/not trusting ritoky day 1 in context were extremely murky, vague and evasive
(3) even if Rels verified that MD's meta read on him was correct, he also townread me a bit too easily.
namely that I was town for being illogical/convoluted, whereas disformation and Rels scumread me for the exact same thing.
pretty sure now that read was contrived.
(4) Day 2 he stated that Rels' activity dropped off when the opposite was true - he was pushing Koshi. Instead of giving a read on Rels, Moosy gave another evasive answer (post 1854)
(5) bottom of page 95, I pressed him for a read on Rels AGAIN. He gave another deflective answer AGAIN. (post 1898) Nothing after that after I had to go to bed.
his "dumbtelling" is very easy to fake as mafia, and it's been a known fact since Fullmetal.
I would use other criteria (less fake-able) to ensure he's town if he somehow is.
I will expand on these points with quotes when I'm back on a laptop if I need to but references should be obvious. Onegu is completely null, but the above there is some information to go off of, and it's sure not townie IMO. For point (4) to see it clearer, you have to read what Rels was doing, but that's the gist of that point.
quoting this so it'll be in my filter. I'll get to this when I can.
|
|
|
the suspense is killing me
|
well i'll be damned. Lynching Godfather D2
|
On February 09 2016 08:05 Rels wrote:
This posts after deadline from both players and observers are super bad tbh
why do you say this?
|
I was just wondering which posts you were referring to
|
On February 07 2016 03:15 boxerfred wrote:
So, here's my situation: I'm gonna be the D2/D3 lynch.
Basically, if Palmar flips scum, I'm fucked since I said he's town. If he flips town, I'm fucked since "HOW COULD YOU KNOW THAT BOXERFRED HOW COULD YOU BE SO SURE".
Here are my mistakes for post-game: letting myself rage hard at people like Moosy, Chez and nooniansong and their styles of posting. If I consider to play some more mafia games, I should learn to deal with that.
I think the vig shot is still better on nooniansong by the way.
I don't understand the point of this post at all. This comes across as quite scummy to me, especially coupled with the fact that the last few pages of your filter is basically nothing. This is basically a huge OMGISUCK post on N1... so forced. I think you've played up your anger towards Moosy to allow yourself to play "tilted"
On February 08 2016 02:36 boxerfred wrote:
if I had to locate scum outside of chez/onegu/md, I'd say it's nooniansong/marv. Tbh I have no idea about Palmar but I think he should be the lynch so we can freely analyze votes from D1.
Are these still your potential scum reads?
|
On February 09 2016 11:44 LightningStrike wrote:
So darth can I have your reads please?
Yea i'll be back around midnight!
|
On February 09 2016 11:44 LightningStrike wrote:
So darth can I have your reads please?
town reads:
marv
Rels
NM
scum reads:
Koshi
boxerfred
Chezinu
Need to reread kush, VA, Moosy and you/Onegu is a big ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
