EPTNewbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 81
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darthfoley
United States8004 Posts
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
he knew no one was going to be influenced by his reads, he knew he was very possibly going to get lynched, so he wanted his reads to exonerate his scumteam. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8004 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Of course the other thing to note is that he flip flopped on Jesus between his fabricated reads and his 3-3-3 reads. I can't reread that right now but I would bet it will clearly tell us Jesus's alignment. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I felt that this pointed to JesusIncarnate being town slightly, and his reads on Tumblewood seemed really weird: "looks like this is his first game, or one of his first, went very pro-active early, maybe a bit over-aggressive on the scum calls, but started making more town reads later on. I don't know, comes off as bad town trying too hard, or bad mafia to me, i'm not experienced enough to tell the difference. If I had to give a solid answer, I'd say he's bad town who changed his mind a bit too often in an attempt to get reactions out of people, falling over himself trying to avoid being mis-lynched." ""Vote Jesus unless he posts something to convince me he's town"- Jesus posts nothing to convince anyone he's town, tumble is clean and followed through on what he said, didn't join in any other bandwagoning. This points to town based purely on voting patterns." It really feels like he's making up reasons to townread Tumblewood, but at the same time give himself an out. Like, see in the second quote, "this points to town based purely on voting patterns." He didn't limit the read to just voting patterns for anyone else in his list. Anyway, I haven't read over this much in a while, but here's what I was thinking when I was analyzing his filter yesterday, for what it's worth. Not sure when I'll have time for closer analysis. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5188 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Good ahead and make fun of the person who is going to be a psychologist/Traist who sucks at reading people. Lawl. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
By townread, I meant not scumread. And Ikidomari's first reads post was definitely an attempt to survive, not a bus play, and this isn't debatable. Any other questions, feel free to ask. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5188 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/tpfR4XF.jpg) | ||
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
On February 01 2016 10:15 Trfel wrote: I really feel like Ikidomari would have generally townread his teammates. I mean, of course you believe this. It exonerates you and your townread jesus. | ||
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5188 Posts
PROFESSOR SHAPELOG'S UNDERSTANDING OF THE DISSECTING OF IKIDO FILTER So read progression From Ikido is as follows (and only read progression. Tomorrow will do more about Ikido and filter and "OMG GUYS I FOUND THE 2 OTHER SCUMS OMG OMG OMG" shit) My top 3 for each Scum: Onegu, JesusIncarnate, Tfel Town: PMT, Darth, Alur Keep a close eye on: Shape, Tumble, Kuragari Votes jesus I have a stronger scum read for Trfel than I do for Onegu. So list is Mafia: Jesus(/S2S), Trofl, Onegu Town: PMT, Darth, Alur Eye on: Shapelog, Tumble, Kuragari Leans are: slight Scum/on the border of null and scum, _MexcianAlien, Town, kush, Eden. Weird that most people in the top 3 of everything list has died/been confirmed town (minus me, but i am town so suck it) Prob. a weird fate thing. Now lets talk about the leans on people. Lets run the hypertheocial situation that Eden (I am bringing her up because with Ikido flipping scum, she is my first suspect with being scum with him) is actually scum with ikido. I could totally see a newbie putting there scum partner off the top 3 list, even thought PMT made it on. Also his read on Eden is short so maybe scum pressured to find reasoning to town read his partner? A lot of that though is thinking though the mind of a newbie though, which is a dangerous thing to do. Though, normally, it make sense 9/10 times (to me). Maybe i am just too out of the box though (ever played in bronze/sliver leduge in Sc2 b/4) A course, this also means that Kush could also be in the exactly the same boat. A little less though since his read on kush was a bit better though. Not out of the realm of possibility. Maybe i am just nuts and the above people are town. And Mex, His scum/null lean on Mex was so bad. _MexicanAlien Comes off as a noob at the start. I don't think he's scum, but he's not being very helpful to town, either. I disagree with his reads. Mex did not came off as a noob at the start, instead i think he was pretty darn good. He obv. knows that town needs a plan of action, and was not afraid to adment it. Plus the, idk about him being scum, be he is useless, is also BS. Especially since he scum read jesus for the same thing. JesusIncarnate Very few posts (I know, he still has more than I do) Posts he has made haven't been very constructive at all. He's coming off as extremely arrogant, enough so that it's got to be some sort of act, because there's no way someone's going to say "I am a Mafia Grandmaster", "speak to me with respect, I deserve it, i am above you" unless they're putting it on, and I mean, look at that name. Only constructive information he's given to town is calling out Eden for supposedly falling for a simple strat. My read is that jesus is an unhelpful town, who has annoying posts to read- 'sick meme' 'residentsleeper' Jesus, why are you putting such a big target on your back for someone to attack you? what do you gain? On January 28 2016 15:38 Ikidomari wrote: I should clarify. Order of events is 1. I start writing my first long post 2. darth writes his case against jesus 3. I read darth's case [bold] after [/bold] writing my part on jesus 4. I post 5. I realize I have to vote 6. I vote for my least favorite person in the game so far- Jesus has contributed very little, his attitude annoys me, other players have a case against him too. that last point about other players having a case against him is important to me, I don't want to mis-lynch someone, in the off chance that it's a close vote, and my vote tips the scales. Here's my last point in defense for now. If I was mafia, I'm most afraid of Eden and Darth, and people in the thread know that. If I survive being lynched today, who dies in the night will pretty much confirm whether or not I'm mafia / town, and I'm an easy vote for day 2. Well the red explains the NK on alur i guess. At least we know a little bit more about why Alur died other then being a strong town player. But this is important since we can possible conclude opinions/thoughts in the scum Qt, therefore understanding more about the scum team in general. Since Ikido actually did extactally just that in the end, we can assume that at least 1 other scum member on his team did so also. This is know as associative behavior (much like associate's scum reads), while i doubt Ikido had much to do with his teams plays (due to his very submissive behavior) we can assume that this thought process was either: Given to him by a scum team mate and therefore was that members logic for lynch. Meaning that the scum team as at least one experienced player. Which means we should look at experience players that changed votes last min, or just voted for a off wagon all together. I feel this one is most likely the case, as Ikido submissiveness would of gone along with a more experience player. Or, Was rubbed off on a another, submissive, newbie scum mate, meaning we should look at people who have voted off the beaten path, changed their votes last minute or for lack luster reasons, and is also a newbie. A course this is difficult since jesus( a newbie) did not vote. (this is very unlikely considering how the noobies left, tumbledore, jesus/S2S, and PMT, MA, are very far from submissive.) I will look into this tomorrow. If you guys want to do it so be it, but i know more for what to look for. More and more talk about what Ikido would do as scum. Even further elaboration on why he and darth/eden can not be a scum team. Will include in my behavior annalist post tomorrow. On January 29 2016 00:57 Ikidomari wrote: Let's take this a step further then. In the hypothetical situation where I'm mafia: either Eden or Darth aren't my Teammates, I've been caught as obvious scum. My best play to help my team at this point is to put a strong townie under suspicion. I "fall" for your obvious WIFOM, and either A) You believe my response and drop suspicion on me, or B) "you got me", and you now suspect a good town to be mafia. Don't tell me how WIFOM works, then expect me to immediately fall for it jesus. I made a bad play in my first ever game, but I'm not a moron. As to why I responded, Either I ignore the post, other people read your "if you don't respond to this you're scum", and conclude that I am, indeed scum If I do reply you pull this WIFOM shit on me, and I at least have a chance to retort it. If I'm still alive come tomorrow I'm going to be riding you hard MA becomes a scum lean/ person for Ikido now. (he did not live up to pushing MA) On January 29 2016 01:00 Ikidomari wrote: I was hoping to be the first one to call you out on Seeming certain there's a doctor in the game, when we don't know that, but I got pissed off at mexican's post and missed my chance, still. Maybe you mistyped or your english is bad, or this is bait to get a stupid mafia to respond and say "Hey how do you know there's a doctor", instantly redflagging them. I don't really have time before sleep to put together a proper defence, and the vote is in 5 hours, so I guess I'll go to bed and wake up to find out if I'm still in the game or not. I hope you change your mind, but town or mafia, logically speaking I'm a good day 1 kill. Good luck. Kind of gives credit to Kura for a town bait play. Suggests that most of Ikido's watch for list is actually towns that he is trying to find scum/town reasons to discredit or credit That list is Me, Tumble, and Kura. (A course we can not say that no one on this list is auto- town. no, in fact, this list should really be a key factor point at looking into the mind of Ikido.) After this nothing major changes in his reads. Says Noon/Kush is prob more townie to him. And that he agrees with every single case on Jesus. TLDR: + Show Spoiler + Further points in the morning | ||
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Shapelog
United States5188 Posts
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
yup all his town reads are turning up to be town. so all his scumreads are probably scum. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8004 Posts
On February 01 2016 10:43 nooniansoong wrote: @shape. yup all his town reads are turning up to be town. so all his scumreads are probably scum. that includes you lol | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 01 2016 10:28 nooniansoong wrote: Filter length and desire to survive versus intentionally being bussed as part of a plan are very different things. I have shown why at least initially, Ikidomari was NOT planning on being bussed, and was attempting to survive.and trfel he wasn't trying that hard to survive, he had a 2 page filter. Again, if you'd like to DISCUSS, that is more than welcome. If you'd like to say that I am wrong just because you feel like it, I don't care to discuss with you. | ||
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
On February 01 2016 10:47 Trfel wrote: Filter length and desire to survive versus intentionally being bussed as part of a plan are very different things. I have shown why at least initially, Ikidomari was NOT planning on being bussed, and was attempting to survive. Again, if you'd like to DISCUSS, that is more than welcome. If you'd like to say that I am wrong just because you feel like it, I don't care to discuss with you. We aren't talking about being bussed. we are talking about bussing. Just because he wasn't planning on being bussed doesn't mean he didn't bus himself. He was acutely aware that there was a great possibility of him being lynched both d1 and d2. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 01 2016 10:49 nooniansoong wrote: Okay, that actually makes some sense. Thank you.We aren't talking about being bussed. we are talking about bussing. Just because he wasn't planning on being bussed doesn't mean he didn't bus himself. He was acutely aware that there was a great possibility of him being lynched both d1 and d2. I guess I'm a bit biased because I know that I'm town and that Onegu was town, so I know that at least 2/3 of his scumreads were town. But that's not something that you know. At least this is better than the "you are scum because you can't possibly think this" after I share all my reasons for thinking this, and you don't say anything about my reasons. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
And how adamant Eden and Ikidomari are that they can't be scum together? | ||
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
On February 01 2016 10:55 Trfel wrote: Okay, that actually makes some sense. Thank you. I guess I'm a bit biased because I know that I'm town and that Onegu was town, so I know that at least 2/3 of his scumreads were town. But that's not something that you know. At least this is better than the "you are scum because you can't possibly think this" after I share all my reasons for thinking this, and you don't say anything about my reasons. I did look at your reasons, and I said they made no sense, and I said why. I didn't present them in a way that asked for a response from you, because I'm not trying to figure you out. I've already done that. I don't want a defense from you. It's actually easier to look townie when you are defending yourself, as shown by ikido. From my perspective, the only thing you defending yourself is going to do is possibly convince the other players that you're town. | ||
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