On February 04 2016 00:06 Superbia wrote:Tictock I'm going to make a final effort here in case you're town.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:SL it must be really comfy in Super's pocket.
I can't believe you don't see how he has no interest in figuering out scum today and you buy his "I have auto tonight" excuse. It's a great excuse to hind behind as scum, but it's the wrong fucking attitude as town when we can win today by finding and lynching scum. Instead of trying he just is bouncing between me and TS without trying to find reasons why we are town or scum.
Rereading today, focusing on Super's posts and modivations.
This was his position right at the start of the day.
On February 02 2016 08:14 Superbia wrote:
Honestly it doesn't really matter that much. The reason I didn't want anyone to talk is because palmar was discussing our number of lynches and others were as well. I was hoping mafia would fuck up and they did.
Me being alive gives us a 2nd lynch.
We lynch today and I get a shot if we miss.
Does it really make sense that mafia would not realize Super's role or the number of shots they needed last night because there was no discussion?
His tone is all wrong too. He's way to mild mannered and uninvested for someone who just "fooled mafia" into letting him live.
All right. The problem here is that you see my motivation as mafia-aligned regardless of what's behind it. Imagine this, you're the town vigi with a shot in 3v1, do you look for the 1 scum? Honestly consider it yourself. You have two kills as town, and you have 3 to pick from. Isn't it easier to just find a ride-or-die town and kill the other two? I really don't understand how you're still not getting this if you're town. The scenario is different from my POV because I have power that changes the math.
I win if I find a single town.The thing is, it does make sense that mafia didn't figure it out, because I didn't get killed. Moreover, this also slightly leans towards a world where the last mafia is either with cake, didn't shoot, or couldn't shoot. This last part doesn't really matter though, except that a stack on palmar is unlikely.
I'm going to be brutally honest here, and no offense, but I don't think both you and the shining are particularly great at logic, judging from your general responses to my logic and the fact I have had to explain the amount of lynches in a variety of scenarios multiple times. Part of the reason why I'm pretty sure the mafia is between you two. I think SL would probably have figured it out and I would've been dead during the night.
I think my tone has been the same throughout the game. I was going to be the judge during this mylo and let you guys fight so I could figure out who the confirmed town was (was already heavily leaning towards SL tbh). My outlook changed the moment the two of you decided that I was the all of a sudden mafia and I could no longer play the judge role.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 02 2016 08:41 Superbia wrote:
Right. The town between you two will need to realize that the only way we have a chance to lose this game is if we sleep or lynch me. But whatever, we'll get there tomorrow.
This post is also odd, why does he think we lose if we sleep?
If he is town he should realize a sleep puts us in 2v1 tomorrow as long as he holds his shot. Only event of a town loss if we sleep is if Super is mafia.
Thus only a scum!Super should be thinking that town losses if we sleep.
Again, I have no idea how you're misreading my posts this hard every time.
For me we have a great chance to win because I can kill 2/3. If we sleep we lose that opportunity. So we go from 2/3 chance to 1/3. So yeah, town's chances go from almost certainly winning to decent chance of losing. Greatly reinforced by the fact that if the mafia is you, you'll more than likely be able to convince the shining that sicklucker is mafia, and if the shining is mafia, god knows where your logic will lead the game. So yes, I'd shoot every time (until SL came up with his plan).
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 02 2016 08:44 Superbia wrote:On February 02 2016 08:42 The Shining wrote:
Super no shooting makes sense too if he has kp anyway. Use his kp, no shoot, push me as the missing kp because he knew I was being rbd
Except that if you are scum I literally give town another lynch for no reason. (5v2 -> 4v2/4v1, very likely 4v1) Oh yeah, and I also get rid of the big question mark in the progress (and very, very likely reduce the scum count to 1). Yeah, no.
This post actually makes no sense, Super is actually talking as though he DID have 2 KP to consider. If he was town I'd expect him to only explain why he shot Cake, this actually reads "well if i left you alive I gave town another lynch which is stupid, also I did kill a question mark who turned out to be scum"
Okay. Let me explain why a no-shot is always the incorrect play as mafia, and why I would never do it if I were mafia.
Yesterday it's 4v1v1, 4v2, or 5v1 (GB could have been mafia, now confirmed to be false). Agreed?
Now let's paint this in where I'm mafia, because my 2nd kp would change the math and we can make some assumptions because copcake flipped mafia due to my shot.
If I'm mafia, it's 4v1v1 or 5v1, unless I KP my partner (hint: nope).
So, if I am to no shoot, the following can happen:
1. It's 5v1, and there is no KP from mafia.
2. The Shining is mafia and there is no KP.
3. Other mafia holds their shot and there is no KP.
4. Mafia goes on my CPR target (very, very unlikely).
So, there's a actually pretty good chance that there is no KP. What does this mean?
We go to the following scenario:
3v1v1 OR 4v1.
What happens then? We sleep and I have to shoot the shining to prove myself. So let's examine the worlds then.
In a 4v1 it can only get reduced to a 3v1 or a 2v1 at best. AND town gets a the shining flip for free. Great reduces my chances if I'm mafia. (This would also be the likely world because I CPRed copcake, and a scum is likely to flip).
In a 3v1v1 I literally give the other mafia another chance to KP me during the night. So I basically turn the game into a coinflip. Yeah. No.
So yes, if I am mafia then no-shooting something I would never do.
Now let's fill in the world where you are mafia:
A. With copcake.
- You have no choice, you only have 1 KP. Rels could've been on both of you as opposed mafia as a bonus. However, I think that Rels may have been aligned with copcake. Can't remember why I think this though. I think this world is logically viable, but gut says Rels was with copcake so that means you couldn't have been with copcake. Next.
B. Not with copcake.
- I honestly think you accidentally stacked with copcake on Palmar here, or copcake no-shot (very unlikely world tbh). I don't think you held your shot because of the way you were pushing me pre-flip and the way you are fine with hard defending the shining, even though it looks like KP was missing on paper, and he was roleblocked (due to TMI).
Like I said before, I don't think your logic has been strong, so I don't think you would've understood the consequences of no-shooting versus shooting if you were mafia. The fact that you were already ready to defend The Shining makes me believe that there was no no-shoot from you, unless it's ultimate WIFOM and you were planning to let SL and myself to d the grunt work.
Now let's fill in the world where the shining is mafia:
A. With copcake.
- Copcake delivers the singular KP that they share. I feel like this can logically be a world because of the way copcake has played this game. I.e. she could've been with everyone bar Glowingbear (and myself). However, like I've said before, I feel like rels was with copcake so the shining couldn't have been.
B. Without copcake.
- Copcake delivered KP. TS couldn't deliver KP. It's a pretty straightforward world, but one that can be ridden out with the "mafia held their shot" WIFOM.
Sicklucker is mafia:
- Town loses the game.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 02 2016 08:46 Superbia wrote:On February 02 2016 08:43 The Shining wrote:On February 02 2016 08:41 Superbia wrote:
Right. The town between you two will need to realize that the only way we have a chance to lose this game is if we sleep or lynch me. But whatever, we'll get there tomorrow.
There is 1 scum left. If we sleep, there would be 1 NK if you don't shoot and 3 left tomorrow with 1 scum. How is that a loss?
No. If we sleep I literally die because I'm confirmed town tomorrow (due to the fact that the game is not over). AND we lose a lynch (I can't shoot anymore). Best case scenario is that scum does not realize this (derp, but kind of likely since they didn't realize the extra lynch), SL dies (likely), and my shot means that we get a shot at a draw.
So Super doesn't want to sleep because he might die, which would actually put us in 2v1 tomorrow with a 1/3 chance of lynching scum over the 1/4 today.
However! The ironic thing here is that that situation should literally be Super's PoV today, he needs to pick the mafia between the 3 of us to win. Yet he has constantly refused to do anything towards that end. He just wants to leave it at either me or TS with his shot to end the game.
It's REALLY important to find scum today, but Super just keeps using his shot as an excuse to do nothing. The fact the he continues to do nothing to push TS or myself as mafia while claiming he doesn't want to sleep is a HUGE contradiction.
No. I pick the TOWN between the 3 of you to win. I've explained this before. Sleeping without SL's plan is superbad because it literally loses us a lynch while confirming me town and I get to leave behind a 1-lynch legacy. Versus getting 2 lynches. Yeah. I think I've explained this enough already.
tl;dr: 2 lynches > 1 lynch.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 02 2016 09:39 Superbia wrote:
1. Because if SL (and myself) are town I can literally kill you both. 1- lynch, 2-cpr.
2. I have specifically said that WE NEVER SLEEP HERE.
3. I literally do not really give a shit which of you two are mafia because I can shoot the other if we miss. I just have to ensure SL is town but I'm pretty sure.
Just again, very adiment about not sleeping but he isn't thinking about winning today.
How does it make sense that town!Super is more focused on the win tonight than on winning today by lynching scum? I don't know how to point this out more clearly.
Again, I COMBINE THE TWO. I get BOTH the lynch AND the shot. I'm not focused on the shot. I'm focused on both.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 02 2016 11:15 Superbia wrote:On February 02 2016 11:08 The Shining wrote:
TTs ability is also 2 shot. Damdred me. He can't do it again.
I also already explained why scumSuper would no shoot last night as well. Knows I'm rb. Has 2 kp so only uses one, puts the missing one blame on me.
IF IM MAFIA I DONT NO-SHOOT. ITS FUCKING HORRIBLE BECAUSE IF YOURE THE OTHER MAFIA TOWN GAINS ANOTHER LYNCH.
This is a retarted way to reply. If Super is mafia obv Shining is not, sorry but Caps don't hide the fact that you are not responding to this in a way that makes sense.
I've explained above why I would never no-shoot as mafia and have shown with logic how it gains town a free flip on the shining (and copcake/GB) while not costing you a lynch. Great play as mafia. 5/7.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 02 2016 21:26 Superbia wrote:
Okay. You understand that for me the optimal way to go about this day is find 1 town instead of the mafia, right? (if I'm town)
This is a technicality, sure the easy way for a Town!Super to pull off the win, but it doesn't mean that he shouldn't try to find scum today so that he doesn't need to rely on his shot. I really REALLY think it's scummy that Super's so focused on this play that involves winning tonight not lynching scum today.
No it doesn't. I find the town to ride or die with because it allows me to focus my efforts. I could focus on either of you but logically you both fit as mafia in the world. Stop hammering this shit home, it is really, really obnoxious.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 02 2016 22:40 Superbia wrote:
Honestly I feel like I've been supertownie even without the whole dreamflower thing.
There's a good reason Palmar hard read me town while he has been able to scum-read me halfway through d1 in the past. Look at my past games.
I really dislike this post. First line reads "Yea I should be townread for the Dreamflower thing" and then he's just useing the fact that Palmar townread him as proof that he's town.
I don't see why mafia can't claim they are going to pick dreamflower and then pick something else later, it's actually a decent move to get easy towncred. Act like your going for a role that is suicide if mafia, then back down when someone suggests something else. I pointed out I had suspicions about this claim right off btw, it doesn't convince me anymore now.
Also if we wanna throw in dead players reads...
+ Show Spoiler +On January 20 2016 02:23 Damdred wrote:
Super why the postering on dreamflowet and then backing out?
(Didn't go looking for that one, happened to spot it while I went looking for...)
On January 25 2016 05:12 Damdred wrote:
Yeah I already read shinning filter.
He's probably 90% town, decent activity and prodding questions. I wouldn't ever lynch him
Out of context. Pretty sure damdred's reponse was a reaction test because at that point in time I was still adamant about picking it. The only reason I let dreamflower go was because of the hilariously ingenious application of forcing a scummy player to pick it. I was pretty adamant about picking it because I loved the role and I'm pretty confident in shooting scum (100% hit rate when the shot went through btw. Also could still be 3/4 correct targets).
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 02 2016 23:02 Superbia wrote:On February 02 2016 23:01 sicklucker wrote:
Like do you shoot? do you hold it? you need a plan b
We'll go into the night with me confirmed town and we can discuss my shot. I'll likely shoot because I have 0 confidence in the town to make the right decision tbh.
This is a bad answer. If town he should realize that if we sleep and he shoots wrong it's game. If he thinks he's got better reads than the rest of us why isn't he sharing them and trying to convince us to lynch that person today? Only reason he'd shoot if we sleep is if he is scum.
I shoot because I have 0 confidence in the town between you and the shining to make the correct play. I can honestly see you guys just lynching SL in final 3 after these shenanigans.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 03 2016 06:32 Superbia wrote:
Also it literally boggles my mind that you're defending someone in MYLO.
On February 03 2016 06:32 Superbia wrote:
That is so un-towny.
Yea, explaining my TR on someone is un-towny. This is total BS.
Super should get lynched for this alone. Claiming that me discussing why I think someone is town in 3v1 is mafia motivated.
You know what I mean with this. Town should be super suspicious. YOU should be super suspicious. Your logic has been invalid and skewed (in the direction of me being Mafia), as I've pointed out before. Your evaluation on the shining is ???. I don't even know. You say you have a town-read on him but you said the same about me when you flipped your read on me ("Superbia is the same as he was last game we played in"). The real fact is that the shining should be your #1 suspect, or at least A suspect. But that's not what I'm getting out of your gameplay at all. Moreover, you're not even bothered by his absence or lack of contribution during this MYLO. Mind. Boggling.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 03 2016 06:40 Superbia wrote:
There is no possible scenario in which you are town. Town is never this convinced in mylo. You've put up a charade of "hmm maybe I should take a look at SL" but it's just a facade. If you were town you would be looking at everybody.
You came in today with a plan. Your post before the night reflected this. The fact that Palmar died over me in the night reflected this.
Explain how Palmar being killed explains anything? If I am scum I never let Super live to possibly shoot me. 2v1 is better for me as scum than the current situation with Super having a shot tonight. Hell anyone of Me/SL/TS as scum would have a high priority to shoot you Super, yet you are still here.
I don't think you were logical enough to realize this (shooting me == optimal play). No personal offense meant. I've had to explain this logic multiple times already, and you're still either not getting it, or ignoring it. Moreover, I've explained the KP world in which you're mafia above.
The fact that you had a huge case on me pre-flip suggests that you were planning on going on me the following day. This suggests that I'm living and that the shining could possibly be confirmed town going into the night (hence the world where you stacked with copcake being the logic one). Moreover, thinking about it, even if you did see the logic, if you expected 3kp in the night we would end up in a 2v1 anyway.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:On February 03 2016 07:16 Superbia wrote:
Reading game filter. Did he flip his read at some point just to go back to it later?
This never panned out. I don't think Super ever did this.
I glanced over your filter but I couldn't really find anything substantial either way. The fact that the game was like 3/4 years ago and one of your first games (I believe), kind of invalidates any filter-logic.
On February 03 2016 15:24 Tictock wrote:I think I'm done here, kinda feel like I'm hitting on the same points over and over (also only a couple more pages to go).
I think it's really clear from Super's posting today that he is only focused on winning tonight, not in correctly lynching mafia today. The only reason why he would be discounting winning today is if he is mafia, this excuse of "having auto" is the most BS reasoning I've ever heard.
This is my last effort to show you guys why we should be lynching Super.
If I'm wrong, convince me of it. If I'm mafia, lynch me for it.
You are hitting the same points over and over, and it's annoying. I think it's clear from my posts that I'm winning, but as town. Whatever. I think I've refuted all your points with this post, and I expect to hear something fresh before EoD.
I'm not crazy about the option to sleep myself since I think scum!Super just wins then, but if that's my only choice besides lynching Shining hoping that I've been wrong on him all game... I think it's what I prefer.
EPT
