I'm a VT
[M][N] Unoriginal Name Mini Mafia - Page 4
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
I'm a VT | ||
darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
I'll provide my reads currently Confirmed town: slOosh (named VT and no one can counterclaim), GiygaS (cop) ~100% confirmed town in my mind: GGTemplar. As I posted earlier, GGTemp was on the boxerfred wagon from the beginning, and I can't see a mafia strat including bussing your RB from almost the beginning of day 1. I'm less certain (but would bet) that Koshi is playing a good town game. However, I've rightly caught a lot of flak for being wishy washy on my voting habits; Koshi voted for four people during the day phase (Nooniansong, VA, Tubesock, Boxerfred). While unlikely, is it impossible for him to be on Tubesock, realize it won't go through, and switch to Boxerfred because the town cred for being on the correct lynch wagon vastly outweighs the benefit of having a suspiciously inactive mafia around that could eventually be tied back to you, even if it's the RB? Boxerfred in his kill post even said he realized he couldn't be active. I think smart mafia may be able to use that to their advantage in their QT thing. May i'm getting too tin-foil hatty here, or perhaps i'm sherlock holmes. This would basically confirm town Tubesock though, unless we somehow had two correct lynch wagons going on D1. Regarding VA, I just want to point this post out near the beginning of the game from Koshi. 3) VA is a master of pushing mafia agenda. If Sloosh isn't mafia the agenda is very intact. What I mean is: his options are still completely open to do w.e the fuck he wants to reach his wincon and help his team win. If VA is either a smart town or good mafia, it makes sense why he would target me coming out N1 with a hard read on me. I've clearly been wishy washy on votes, misread posts, and haven't really led town discussion on anything, which signals weak first game town that can easily be made into a *ding ding ding, darth checks off all the mafia bells.* I understand why his case is compelling, except I haven't "feigned ignorance" like he says I have. I fully accept that I haven't been a strong town, but I haven't relied on the newbie crutch at all imo. If you guys end up lynching me, take good look at him when I come back green. I've gone through mderg's filter and I think he is probably town at this point; I don't think it would make sense to get off the Boxerfred wagon at that point in the day if he were trying to claim town cred for a correct lynch. While his filter is shorter than most, I don't see anything incriminating him currently. With the setup confirmed A, I think Tubesock is a potential frame target, however the EoD vote was so scattered that I could see mafia team including Tubesock deciding to not frame Tubesock to green. Given how his wagon kind of collapsed near the end of the day, there seemed to be some consensus that Tubesock was acting more townie. Personally i'm not very sold on the WIFOM "lynch me!" because isn't that exactly what you would do to come off as a town, willing to die for the good of the order? Noonian - I'm not sure what I think of Noonian at this point. While it doesn't make much sense for a mafia to defend someone who is likely to be lynched in the next day or two, it could also maybe(?) establish town creds when I flip green. Noon hasn't really given any reads besides his mderg+Eden hail mary, so that gives me some scum vibes. Scott - I don't want to beat a dead horse, but Scott's number 1-7 thing is pretty questionable. His excuse that he hadn't updated it when he posted it is also kind of silly: GGTemp being the same as me at 5.5, even though he advocated hard for boxerfred, and I didn't? I don't know why, if he's been reading the thread like he says he has, you would only have a "light" town read on GGTemp. I also don't think his case against mderg has any legs to stand on, leaving him with little substance even though he's posted a fair amount. He's my #2 lynch behind Tubesock. Eden - I think he's been especially strong since EoD1, making me fairly confident he's town. His discussion of mafia teams/lynch strategy make a lot of sense if you agree that either (but not both) me or Tubesock are mafia-- and most of you do. I realize this is the dreaded wall of text, but I haven't been able to post for a while | ||
darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On January 12 2016 11:50 Eden1892 wrote: That's great and all, but at the end of the day, you're not explaining why it is that Tubesock's posting, which was essentially unchanged between your unvote and your subsequent vote, no longer was townie enough for you. You've just gone in after being called on it and basically said some things that, if true, were already true of Tubesock before you unvoted. Like if you felt his reads weren't substantive enough, that's fine, but you either decided that they were substantive enough when you unvoted him (as that was the reason you voted him initially), or you unvoted him despite them not being substantive enough. Either way there's a glaring discrepancy that your explanation fails to satisfy. At the time I unvoted I did believe Tubesock's defense against GiygaS. However, as the day progressed I realized how easy I am to manipulate because most arguments seem more credible to me than they really are. I started to get this feeling because Rayne kept grilling Tubesock over it regarding details I hadn't thought of. I then voted on VA because I was suspicious of his inactivity and thought it was a safe bet. But because I trusted Rayne the most, I took his advice and looked through his D1 posts from other games. I saw his point and decided that I wouldn't vote VA EoD1, leaving me to either go back to Tubesock, or randomly vote for people I didn't have strong suspicions of: GiygaS, Boxerfred, slOosh or Koshi. I didn't find any of those people more suspicious than Tubesock, so I voted Tubesock. Even though Tubesock had 3 votes when I got back on the wagon, votes were spread thinly so I didn't want to screw up with some shot in the dark against someone else. | ||
darthfoley
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darthfoley
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darthfoley
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On January 13 2016 18:20 Eden1892 wrote: soooooo 100% town: sloosh, giygas, ggtemplar pretty town: me, mderg shrug: noonian lynch: tubesock, scott koshi is ?????? you say probably a good townie game but then spend the rest of the paragraph talking about how he's mafia... va is "smart town or good mafia" who we should look at This is pretty uninspiring for me. Obvious town reads are obvious, made only slightly spicy by somehow not town reading Koshi as strongly as some other town reads. Obvious lynches are obvious. The thing that would actually help us solve this game is sorting out the trio of darthfoley, Vayne and kush. darth gives us very little about this -- his read on Vayne seems to imply that he thinks Vayne is mafia (see "when I flip green look at this guy"), but he starts off by saying "If VA were smart town or good mafia," his behavior makes sense. So all I learn from this is that darth doesn't think VA is dumb town. Great I guess, but not really helping. It's also strange to me that darth combines a very conceding treatment of VA's arguments (stuff like "I understand I haven't been a great townie" and the like), but then still thinks we should suspect VA. If VA's arguments are reasonable enough to force a concessive "I understand I haven't been a great townie" type of reaction, then why would VA be suspicious for giving such an argument? Shocking, I know, but this seems like a mafia reaction to me. Acknowledge your opponent has a point, but still try to paint your opponent as suspicious for making it. Not liking it. And then there's just not a lot said about Noonian either way, looks like a light scumread but darth isn't initiating a lot of conversation with Noonian to sort out his read. Especially given how Noonian should be near the top of his suspects list given his reads and the game state information we have, I'm -- surprise -- suspicious of darth here too. Regarding VA, I'm not sure what you think is wrong with pointing out VA's options. I literally just said why you should still be suspicious regarding VA: He is a smart player. That intelligence can easily make a mafia case out of a weaker town, because a lot of his points are true. That's my whole point! You act like as a town, I have to argue against points that are obviously true (I flip flopped on some votes, I followed people's lead, etc). VA being mafia and my acknowledgement that some of his argument is supported by fact, are not mutually exclusive events. My acknowledgement of SOME of his argument also does not mean that I am mafia. I think it should be clear to you why, at this point. If you were mafia, and you knew that your name had come up multiple times in the previous vote phase for inactivity, AND people said they were voting for you if you didn't get more active in the next day phase, who would you target? You obviously wouldn't target more or less confirmed town, or some of the more ambiguous people. You have a newer player, who was wishy washy on votes, followed people's leads, and "feigned ignorance" of game mechanics right at your fingers tips. Why wouldn't you go after him first? The reason I said this could be smart town or smart mafia play, is that it makes sense from both perspectives. From VA town, I look like mistake riddled mafia; from VA mafia, I look like the perfect target to lynch. You might still think that i'm scum, but don't feign ignorance as if my defense makes no sense. | ||
darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On January 14 2016 09:01 Eden1892 wrote: One of these days you'll listen to me right away buddy. I got faith in you. Mafia was largely unsuspected n1. Explains ray dying and explains framing vt. Kush definite mafia IMO. Darthfoley fits that profile too y'know... I wonder if anyone else does. Scottkmatt probs. but that's just a crapshoot lynch right now. (Then again so was boxerfred) Yes, I think it's clear mafia was probably unsuspected N1 given Tubesock's green flip. Let's look at the D1 VCA: On January 11 2016 07:35 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Final Vote Count boxerfred (3): GGTeMpLaR, slOosh, Koshi Tubesock (2): GiygaS, darthfoley GiygaS (2): Tubesock, Eden1892 nooniansoong (2): raynpelikoneet, mderg VayneAuthority (1): nooniansoong slOosh (1): VayneAuthority Koshi (1): boxerfred Not voted (1): Kmatt Did not receive votes: Rayn (dead VT), darthfoley, mderg, GGTemplar, Eden, Kmatt Seems like you fit the profile too... I had two people scum read me iirc: mderg and GGTemplar. That's more suspicion than you had D1, right? I don't even think you can really include those who only got 1 vote in the "suspicious enough to not risk framing a townie N1" pile, because VA, Koshi and slOosh weren't in danger at all late in D1. Even the noonian 2 vote wagon wasn't considered that serious at the time. The voting was all over the place, so while your read is right, it's pretty obvious and doesn't provide much insight whatsoever. Cop could've checked basically anyone given how spread out the voting was. | ||
darthfoley
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darthfoley
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(Consensus-- this is also me thinking out loud) Town pile: GiygaS, slOosh, GGTemplar, Eden, Koshi, mderg Perceived scum pile: me, VA, noonian, scott I think Eden's defense of Tubesock solidly puts him in the town pile, two are confirmed town, and GGTemplar and Koshi have been town through and through. Out of the town pile, the only person I am not pretty confident about is mderg. While the other players have "signature" town reads/votes/defense, I don't think mderg has had one yet. He's definitely not my lynch target though. Regarding the other four names, even if we mislynch one or two times, we have a big enough town pile right now that it isn't game breaking. Personally, my naughty list is as follows: scott, Noonian, VA, I still have no idea where scott stands on anything. His filter is a load of questions that don't really ask anything. His beautiful analysis of the game has resulted in a couple of posts with one-liners that don't clarify anything or challenge anyone. Scott has used the argument of VA, except that VA actually delivered a well thought out and concise argument on why he thought I was scum. Scott hasn't done anything remotely worthy of analysis imo. Your conf town which upsets me, that you have nothing behind it but "I'd lynch him instead" - I'll flip VT. I don't spam the fucking thread like the others do, I observe, post my thoughts, and go with it - You should find another. Did you even read what I said? What's the mafia motivation? To lynch our red-check? Did you even read the game? I've obs'ed games for almost two years. Scott hasn't posted any real thoughts or gone with any of them. I can get into Noonian/VA in another post, but I'm taking Koshi's advice about only posting about one person. | ||
darthfoley
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darthfoley
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On January 15 2016 15:07 GiygaS wrote: darth can you give me what exactly is your current position on VA I'm 50/50 on VA. Part of me thinks that he's potentially luckily evaded cop checks for 2 nights, and has simultaneously flown under the radar with by far the shortest filter. His only real contribution/read on his filter is his case against me. It's not that it's shallow or weak, but that was almost 4 days ago (real time) at this point, which gives me pause. Since, his only posts have been arguments for killing red checked Tubesock, and a very weird comment about Eden post Tubesock green flip. I don't think you can draw alignment much out of the arguments re Tubesock though; most of us agreed it was the safe bet to do. On January 14 2016 08:03 VayneAuthority wrote: and with that flip I now agree with koshi that eden is incredibly suspicous It is kind of out of left field, and he never expands on it so I don't know where he's going with this, or if he still believes it. Getting clarification on this important imo. On the other hand, I feel like scum VA would've been more active in trying to funnel discussion one way or another by this point in the game. After all, it's D3 and we have a dwindling number of scum suspects left in the game (including him). | ||
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darthfoley
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##Vote: Scott31337 | ||
darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
Regarding the other four names, even if we mislynch one or two times, we have a big enough town pile right now that it isn't game breaking. Personally, my naughty list is as follows: scott, Noonian, VA, I still have no idea where scott stands on anything. His filter is a load of questions that don't really ask anything. His beautiful analysis of the game has resulted in a couple of posts with one-liners that don't clarify anything or challenge anyone. Scott has used the argument of VA, except that VA actually delivered a well thought out and concise argument on why he thought I was scum. Scott hasn't done anything remotely worthy of analysis imo. Scott hasn't posted any real thoughts or gone with any of them. | ||
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