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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On January 08 2016 00:12 nooniansoong wrote: why do you assume town will let this game get to lylo? Not a fan of Onegu pushing this point at all. That's the third time I recall him doing this. Doesn't mean he's town this game, nor does pushing that point make him any more town. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On January 08 2016 00:26 Palmar wrote: ows is a green check, pay attention pls (1) GF hasn't flipped (2) Damdred and at least one other person wanted more reads from me (3) several debating OWS doesn't hurt to tell others where my head is pay attention pls | ||
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Onegu
United States9695 Posts
On January 08 2016 00:12 nooniansoong wrote: why do you assume town will let this game get to lylo? I dont. Where does it say I assume that. I am not doing anything until lylo. If lylo happens I will solve the games for you. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On January 07 2016 06:21 ExO_ wrote: I think Onegu is scum. His fake claim bullshit on day 2 has let him slide by like Damdred. Only unlike Damdred he hasn't done anything since then. His filter is 4 pages long, and he has 1 post on the 4th page. He's not doing anything. On day 3 he switched off of Slam and went to GB (this is true of OO and SL as well). If I work with the assumption that Onegu is scum it leads me to the following scum team: Onegu Shining Slam Kush Day 3 Kush parks his vote on Slam and never moves it at all. Shining votes for GB, and Onegu moves from Slam to GB. GB never throws his vote on slam (inexplicably). This gets GB lynched, and protects slam for another day. I think slam is a scum with a role, and I think we should lynch him today. ##Vote Alakaslam On January 07 2016 07:05 Damdred wrote: That's interesting why do you spend so much time talking about how onegu must be scum but decide that slam has to be scum because of something that isn't true. When GB ended up being lynched I tried to shennanigan onto slam but the true counter wagon during the day was palmar. You saying slam wad the other wagon is wrong. And when slam had a large amount of votes before we moved to GB palmar was still the counter wagon. so yeah On January 07 2016 07:23 ExO_ wrote: ...I was one of the people moving to Slam during that time, don't you remember? I wanted to lynch Palmar but it never really got enough steam. And then when the movement to Slam started, Palmar almost switched (or at least implied he did) but ultimately decided to stay on GB> What is untrue about what I'm saying? I actually agree with ExO_ here. What he is saying makes complete sense. Onegu's filter could be NAI if he's a player who doesn't post much (don't recall him saying that much as town in the game that finished), but Onegu very well could be mafia for what he pulled on Tictock. I made a mention before that he could have tried to draw a cop counterclaim so I can sort of see how it'd make sense. In addition, Onegu's posts about being confirmed town and making calls in lylo just rubbed me the wrong way considering how GB flipped; it was the same argument I was using for Palmar. GB was expendable, and refused to vote for Alakaslam. I think Noon/Kush had other read-based reasons (Alakaslam wasn't caring about the game) to vote him in the first place and I'm pretty sure Shining is town tbh, but the play made sense to me when he could have drawn out the cop claim (cop was still alive at the time). Now my only issue with ExO is that he's using ALL these arguments to argue that all of these people are scum, but I think between this and his voting analysis on GB's agenda, I think this former part makes him more guilty of confirmation bias rather than making him mafia. Also part tone, like he comes off to me as someone who really believes what he's saying even if he might be off target. There's a stubbornness, IDGAF attitude that I see in him. I think ExO is town. | ||
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
On January 07 2016 05:44 ExO_ wrote: Im playing around with the daily votes and colors right now to see if I can find any trends. So far this is what I've noticed: GB on day 1 voted for townies: (ticktock, Vivax, Holyflare). The only possible bus he could've done would be on NESS (Nocture Mage now) if NM turns out to be scum. If not this means GB didn't bus a single time on day 1. On day 2 GB was on ticktock like everyone else, Day 3 he was on Palmar, and OWS. Looking at this data, I tend to think GB wasn't bussing at all this game. I guess its quite possible he would bus on Day 3 but I don't think so. If Palmar is town and OWS is town then I think it indicates that NM is probably town as well. Since I think Palmar is town and OWS is basically cleared by SL, I tend to think GB never once voted for his scum teammates. Your logic this: 5/6 of GB's scumreads turned out to be town. Therefore, the last scumread is also town. I'd say it makes it more likely for the last scumread to be scum, since scum usually throws in at least some busing especially as the game goes on. So what we have here is bad and possibly opportunistic reasoning. Another interesting tidbits are where noonian songs votes have been Day 1: Briefly Voting for Palmar, ends on Slam Day 2: Votes Self Day 3: Votes Slam Kush has for the most part only been voting for Slam. Like non-stop. Call it confirmation bias, but I think this is scum indicative. Day 1 he's safely on neither wagon, day 2 he votes self (which btw I didn't think was allowed and I didn't even notice). Day 3 again voting for Slam. In the event that Slam flips scum (which I think he will) Kush can say he pushed slam, while at the same time he's stayed way out of the spotlight, voting wise). That's all I got for now, will come back into the thread if I notice anything noteworthy To paraphrase: Voting for alakaslam d1 and d3 is scummy because 1. I can say I pushed scum 2. I stay out of the spotlight. re 1: I can't say i push scum because my scum meta is to bus and that is well known. re 2: Wouldn't voting for TT be staying out of the spotlight? I'd say voting for alakaslam rather than going with the popular wagon puts me more in the spotlight. Additionally, I argued hard d3 to not lynch Palmar or GB. That's not out of the spotlight. | ||
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
On January 08 2016 00:26 Palmar wrote: ows is a green check, pay attention pls Assuming there is a GF, there is a 25% chance that a red will give a green check. I agree we should go for other mafia first. But I think there's a good chance he's scum. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On January 08 2016 00:37 nooniansoong wrote: Your logic this: 5/6 of GB's scumreads turned out to be town. Therefore, the last scumread is also town. I'd say it makes it more likely for the last scumread to be scum, since scum usually throws in at least some busing especially as the game goes on. So what we have here is bad and possibly opportunistic reasoning. To paraphrase: Voting for alakaslam d1 and d3 is scummy because 1. I can say I pushed scum 2. I stay out of the spotlight. re 1: I can't say i push scum because my scum meta is to bus and that is well known. re 2: Wouldn't voting for TT be staying out of the spotlight? I'd say voting for alakaslam rather than going with the popular wagon puts me more in the spotlight. Additionally, I argued hard d3 to not lynch Palmar or GB. That's not out of the spotlight. I dunno. Call me nitpicky, but I can go either way on the first part. I get Noon's argument here, and I realise that 6th vote is my slot so I get if you think I'm biased here. At the same time, I think Palmar is also mafia, but I can see where that perspective is affected depending on your townread (I think?) on him. Personally I just think ExO is wrong, what exactly is striking you as opportunistic? He's using a lot of conditional words (like "if" and "probably"), just saying. Second part, Day 1 vote, I wasn't around, but the leading wagons (Rels/Tictock) were both town right? Isolated wagons are generally bad offhand but I think it's better though to recall the reasoning for his voting Slam Day 1, and whether that was organic or not or if it was abrupt and really how hard he pushed it compared to his reads on the wagons. Day 2 vote is NAI, the lynch on Tictock was autopilot. Day 3 if I'm reading his phrasing correctly I think the "staying out of the spotlight" refers to the Day 1 and 2 votes and not the Day 3 votes. | ||
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
I think I'm changing my mind on Exo. Because I think you, nm, are town, and it woudn't make sense for Exo to town you like that. You are one of scum's biggest mislynch targets. | ||
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ObiWanShinobi
United States8089 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
I had a little extra time, so I thought I'd make this post a bit interesting. Decided I'd "borrow" a theme I've seen used by others for the hell of it  | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
I like that read. Both can go back to lock town. Which makes the game harder because I want to town read nm also. ows off the table today but possible scum still hrm. Then got the group of oo, palmar, ritoky, kush, slam. The way we are voting is a bit nerve racking with everyone piling up but I can't really contest slam I've seen him just leave like this as town and scum which makes this suck even more. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Final Jeopardy: Starring Ritoky So the category is Night Kills and before I ask the question, I want to present to ritoky a few "exhibits" of information that I found in his filter and in the thread. Exhibit 1: Night 2 Reads - Ritoky (post 3245) + Show Spoiler [Post 3245] + On January 02 2016 11:41 ritoky wrote: what you think of this? town 100%: ritoky coag town 99%: exo_ town 96%: koshi town 95%: holyflare vivax: vivax slightly town pile: obi OO moosy shining no clue and probably not gonna get one: kush mafia list in no order: 1 of: gb or ness/NM palmar slam 1 of: onegu or damdred 1 of: sl or trfel if i am wrong in here (particularly on 1 between onegu/damdred is where i could easily be wrong) then it's probably moosy or kush? Exhibit 2: Day post Day 3 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/500627-outlaw-mini-mafia?page=169#3361 Exhibit 3: Explanation for Nightkill (conversation on page 169, quotes spoilered below) + Show Spoiler [Day 3 Conversation] + On January 03 2016 08:10 Damdred wrote: Like break it down for me you have already said you can't have me in lylo because you will lymch me. But you shoot moosey when a few are telling you he could be town men. So why moosey over me and why not hold the shot to give us an extra lymch you were worried about. On January 03 2016 08:11 ritoky wrote: because i read you town, and i figured if 1 of you and onegu is mafia or both are mafia, then i am getting roleblocked and i know it. if both of you are town they are gonna let my bullet through so i started working on other people to shoot. and between myself and hf i arrived at moosy and slam. i sent about 9 pms to the mods....i really wish i had shot slam now. On January 03 2016 08:13 Damdred wrote: But of you think I'm town why not listen to my read because you should know I'm good at reading moosey. God that read about him not missing the vote as scum blah On January 03 2016 08:13 Damdred wrote: But of you think I'm town why not listen to my read because you should know I'm good at reading moosey. God that read about him not missing the vote as scum blah On January 03 2016 08:15 ritoky wrote: because i was realllllly sure hf was town and i had a lot of faith that he isn't this wrong as town so i trusted his reads the most Exhibit 4: MoosyDoosy Night 2 I have read in between the time ritoky made his list post and the day post for anything Moosy may have posted to examine a town motivation for shooting Moosy or something that might have changed his mind. The only thing I found was this (spoilered.) + Show Spoiler [Posts 3289, 3290] + On January 02 2016 18:53 MoosyDoosy wrote: loool thnx and ur scum <333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 On January 02 2016 18:58 MoosyDoosy wrote: Koshi is town ^^ these are notes for myself when I read through my filter btw On January 02 2016 19:05 MoosyDoosy wrote: honestly it's just about 99.99% sure that i'm town but ok. Exhibit 5: Night 2 Reads - Holyflare (spoilered) This is how Holyflare was trying to direct the kill. + Show Spoiler + On January 02 2016 09:01 Holyflare wrote: They're both probably town there's nothing to work out. Shoot slam please. On January 02 2016 11:21 Holyflare wrote: Slam/GB/Moosy are all good shot targets So here are my questions. (1) You had a slight town read on Moosy and I posted I think most if not all the content on him between the time of your list post and the day post. What changed regarding Moosy to the point you shot him? (2) When Damdred asked you why you shot Moosy, you resorted to your reads between yourself (Exhibit 1) and Holyflare (Exhibit 5). Except that you townread MoosyDoosy, even if slightly. Why would you shoot a townread? (3) When Damdred asked you why you shot Moosy, you said you trusted Holyflare's reads (Exhibits 3 and 5). I tried to cover all pushes and direction by Holyflare from the time Tictock died to the day post. He mentioned Moosy ONCE. He pushed Alakaslam comparatively disporportionately (Exhibit 5). So how did you work out that Holyflare wanted Moosy over Slam dead? This is what you said. On January 03 2016 08:11 ritoky wrote: because i read you town, and i figured if 1 of you and onegu is mafia or both are mafia, then i am getting roleblocked and i know it. if both of you are town they are gonna let my bullet through so i started working on other people to shoot. and between myself and hf i arrived at moosy and slam. i sent about 9 pms to the mods....i really wish i had shot slam now. And as stated in #2, you townread Moosy. (4) MoosyDoosy's content (Exhibit 4) was either reads or trolling, which is reflective of his general play as town after Day 1, it is known he is not a fan of playing day 1. Do you disagree with this. I look forward to your answers. You are free to wager any amount of money you please. Any currency is accepted. For your sheer amusement you can go ahead and play the Jeopardy music: | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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Damdred
15669 Posts
On January 08 2016 02:13 NocturneMage wrote: Damdred you say know ritoky well right? I do think I can read him relatively well, usually when he's town though I'm super sold early with no tin foil. And I generally know when he's scum. I just have gut feels he's scum this game and trying to figure it out. | ||
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nooniansoong
1538 Posts
On January 08 2016 02:07 Damdred wrote: Exo v Shining looks town vs town as I read it. So yeah both of them going bro fuck you for misunderstanding and getting emo looks town. I like that read. Both can go back to lock town. Which makes the game harder because I want to town read nm also. ows off the table today but possible scum still hrm. Then got the group of oo, palmar, ritoky, kush, slam. The way we are voting is a bit nerve racking with everyone piling up but I can't really contest slam I've seen him just leave like this as town and scum which makes this suck even more. Why is onegu clear? | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
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Damdred
15669 Posts
I don't think scum onegu goes 1 v 1 at that point. | ||
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