|
damdred
If there is a dark horse mafia from my earlier list post int he townie section, it's probably damdred.
There's plenty of reasons to believe damdred is town. He's taking a leadership role in town now, he has actually got a fairly long filter by his standards (I want to point out that I have a long one for my standards too...), and I can easily see why he'd make the counterclaim to tt's gunsmith claim as town. In fact it's more likely that he does it as town because if he is mafia he would know that onegu and tt are both town (remember, I don't think there's a chance onegu/damdred are both mafia) and thus he shouldn't care too much if town turns on onegu and lynches tt.
Actually as I write that it's probably the best towncase I've made on damdred for a while.
The biggest problem I have with damdred is this one:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/KGcD6uk.png)
This image shows damdred's mentions of me. This is what I noticed last night which prompted me to ask him. Notice that literally none of those talk about any kind of read on my alignment. It's just going along with thread sentiment to call palmar mafia like all the good townies.
He did try to explain his read on me yesterday when I asked him but still.
To summarize: Damdred is probably town, I just wrote a pretty strong case for him being town based on the claim mechanics, and he is actively trying to do things today. There do exist some concerns though so he's not a terrible cop check if the cop survives for a while longer (it's probably better to check scummy people tonight etc). Just make sure he stays with the game and keeps saying the right things.
|
OO
I literally just opened his filter for the first time in the game. Every single game I play, the people I ignore end up being mafia and I never read their filters because they're so boring, this guy has quite a few things mafia do in his filter:
His read on damdred flip flopped relatively conveniently on day 2, yet after "poking through damdred's filter" he somehow missed the very important point that damdred claimed a role that wasn't cc'd (except by ticktock, who at the time was consensus mafia).
On December 30 2015 13:24 ObviousOne wrote:does anyone know/remember if palmar has a history of bussing? cause from his filter after reading kush i'm getting the feeling it could be a double-bus where they scum read eachother but neither really does anything about it. palmar vs artanis thing had no reason to be so drawn out, if palmar had the power to kill artanis why wouldn't he just ignore artanis all night if he was going to shoot artanis anyway? this one actually made me laugh though: Show nested quote +On December 30 2015 03:55 Palmar wrote:
Stop calling me mafia rayn you might die and the retards might sheep you post death after which rayn dies tinfoil hat me says the night actions are a way to assist in getting palmar lynched historically i have a bad time trying to decide whether or not palmar is scum, right now i can see reasons to think he's at worst null unless he's mafia together with kush specifically so association case someday maybe so yeah an entirely noncommittal town or scum-with-kush read but really i have no fucking clue honestly
This post is sort of really bad. First off he makes a weird associative read about kush and I being double busing, and then proceeds to write an entire post essentially defending me, and somehow tries to associate kush flipping mafia with me certainly having to be one. It's really bad, and what if kush does indeed flip mafia? Is he going to go "well I guess palmar must be mafia too then?". It feels like a setup while trying not to antagonize me.
Also, he changed his mind about it later!
On January 02 2016 23:58 ObviousOne wrote:
sleep deprived mafia team based on not very much effort but it's up to date, i'll try to do better when i come back
ows
vivax
one of sl or slam
one of noon or palmar
maybe gb
could prob eliminate one more name if i was caffeinated enough but i doubt it.
thought about comparing this list to the dead guys filters from n1 maybe when i wake up tonight. from memory palmar was suspect but the rest i dont remember off the top of my empty skull
Apparently now only one of me and Kush can be mafia, because reasons.
OO is very, very likely to be mafia. I sort of expected ending up staying on GB after doing this, but pending poking around his filter I might just want to lynch OO.
|
I need to actually do things for a while, I'll try to get through all the players before tonight.
|
i'd like to know what's convenient about having to find a new strong town read when the rest of them are dead
any why you take issue with my opinion that there is more likely only one mafia (if any) between the two of palmar and noon based on your interactions
|
Damdred was not being scumread by anyone, the fact you didn't read that he had claimed, which should be a major impact on your read on him, suggests you didn't really read at all.
You are of course essentially correct that there can be at most one mafia between me and kush, but why the change in heart when you previously basically said you felt it was a double bus scenario (indicating that there's not one mafia between us, but two).
|
Those early posts about damdred were made while catching up with the game, posting while behind, iirc
The longer a double bus goes on the less likely it is to be one especially in this game where it's potentially a near-perfect game. Ofc I would call it a double bus when I felt you were both scummy in my mind
|
On January 04 2016 19:46 ObviousOne wrote:
Those early posts about damdred were made while catching up with the game, posting while behind, iirc
The longer a double bus goes on the less likely it is to be one especially in this game where it's potentially a near-perfect game. Ofc I would call it a double bus when I felt you were both scummy in my mind
This one is specifically not true, in fact your entire post was DEFENDING me instead of showing how I was scummy. The only caveat you left is that somehow it could be a double bus, without specifically talking about how or why I could be mafia.
|
On January 04 2016 19:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 19:46 ObviousOne wrote:
Those early posts about damdred were made while catching up with the game, posting while behind, iirc
The longer a double bus goes on the less likely it is to be one especially in this game where it's potentially a near-perfect game. Ofc I would call it a double bus when I felt you were both scummy in my mind This one is specifically not true, in fact your entire post was DEFENDING me instead of showing how I was scummy. The only caveat you left is that somehow it could be a double bus, without specifically talking about how or why I could be mafia.
i didnt talk about how or why you could be mafia because up to this point the only real evidence i really have that you could be mafia is how poorly the night kills reflect on you, and i think you'd agree that's not concrete on its own.
it's a downside of playing by how things feel instead of citing specific evidence. its not like i have a history of people looking to me as a town leader or having stunning analysis. im sure that makes people hate reading or playing with me.
|
again, that conflicts with your earlier statement.
you said
"I felt you were both scummy"
and now you said
"I didn't talk about how or why you could be mafia because at this point the only real evidence I really have that you could be mafia is how poorly the night kills reflect on you"
Those statements cannot exist together.
|
and stop bashing yourself, you're a fine player who actually tries shit.
It's literally the easiest job in the world to be likable in tl mafia you have to do two things
a) don't be a complete dick
b) at least try to do something
both of which you do fine enough.
Let's assume for a second you're not mafia, who do you think we should lynch today and why. Also, what do you think of the people I've written about so far?
|
Vote Count - Day 3
Palmar (5): Coagulation, NocturneMage, GlowingBear, ExO_, Trfel
Alakaslam (3): ritoky, nooniansoong, sicklucker
Onegu (2): Alakaslam, NocturneMage, ObiWanShinobi
NocturneMage (1): Damdred, sicklucker
GlowingBear (1): Palmar
Trfel (0): ObiWanShinobi
ritoky (0): sicklucker
Not Voting (3): Onegu, ObviousOne, The Shining
At this time, Palmar is slated to be lynched.
Day 3 end in on Monday, Jan 04 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00).
The voting thread is here.
Only votes there will be counted.
|
On January 04 2016 20:18 Palmar wrote:
and stop bashing yourself, you're a fine player who actually tries shit.
It's literally the easiest job in the world to be likable in tl mafia you have to do two things
a) don't be a complete dick
b) at least try to do something
both of which you do fine enough.
Let's assume for a second you're not mafia, who do you think we should lynch today and why. Also, what do you think of the people I've written about so far?
kush feels very diplomatic and rigid and i obviously agree he could be scum. the post you quoted where he explains his questioning exo's scumread of you has a tone of being apprehensive about explaining it which is out of character for his robotic analytical approach this game.
exo scumreading you in that scenario could be a way to get you to explain how you reached your conclusion but actually now that i'm looking at that period of the game it feels a similar to his reaction to the mason claim -- very hot headed and needlessly aggressive.
could you look at exo? i've been townreading him for his doggedness towards rsoul/coag and have ignored him since, but it's probably time to look more closely and your point brings up what may be a pattern that could be out of the norm for his town behavior.
the last two games i've played with sl he's had what i could describe as a sort of shifting gears into business mode that has happened within the first day or two of the game. the first one he saved me from a mislynch and the game was won handily (student mini) and the second he again took much more personal responsibility for the direction of the game (haunted mini), which while his activity this game is quite high i don't get the same sense of taking the reigns this game that i did in those two. it's not a concrete thing but i could see him potentially being scum in this game but again nothing concrete.
the posts regarding nocturnemage are kinda curious
On January 03 2016 17:31 sicklucker wrote:
oh ness was replaced by that fucker
sort of implies he knows nocturnemage
On January 04 2016 02:00 sicklucker wrote:
But I never played with nocturne before so dandred I wanna give him a chance he seems to be trying...
Can we kill slam plzpl mister dandred mister?
but this post says he hasn't. i find this weird.
his issue with noct knowing the setup of the game is kind of silly since he himself didn't read the OP in the game we were in haunted mini, so it's a stupid point to fuss about when he himself is underinformed. if sl should have any issues with noct i would imagine it would be more with how noct is pushing your lynch but without taking any of the responsibility for it which i imagine you'd have a problem with.
onegu thoughts are already in my filter
|
On January 04 2016 20:49 ObviousOne wrote:the posts regarding nocturnemage are kinda curious Show nested quote +On January 03 2016 17:31 sicklucker wrote:
oh ness was replaced by that fucker sort of implies he knows nocturnemage Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 02:00 sicklucker wrote:
But I never played with nocturne before so dandred I wanna give him a chance he seems to be trying...
Can we kill slam plzpl mister dandred mister? but this post says he hasn't. i find this weird. his issue with noct knowing the setup of the game is kind of silly since he himself didn't read the OP in the game we were in haunted mini, so it's a stupid point to fuss about when he himself is underinformed. if sl should have any issues with noct i would imagine it would be more with how noct is pushing your lynch but without taking any of the responsibility for it which i imagine you'd have a problem with.
onegu thoughts are already in my filter
You find it weird that so calls nm a fucker even though he's never played with him.
Why is that scummy?
Looks like oo is spreading suspicion based on non existent reasoning.
|
Nooniansoong's post about solving the game through townreads and process-of-elimination kind of made sense when looking through his filter.
I think I mostly trust Damdred, but I'm not really sure I trust ritoky; it's a random tinfoil hat theory that I haven't had time to check yet.
It's way too darn early 
|
Im positive we vote slam and not palmar today.
|
Theres like guaranteed 2 mafia voting palmar. (yes it is time for association reads) While slam is unlyncable apparently for no reason. Now I dont expect mafia to all vote together to make it easy but his wagon is so scummy. And getting people to vote slam has been a chore.
Now pretty much always when mafia become a high percentage of the players renaming . (33% of players left are mafia) It becomes really hard to fucking lynch mafia and theres resistance to lynches that are so fucking obvious
|
On January 04 2016 21:48 Trfel wrote:Nooniansoong's post about solving the game through townreads and process-of-elimination kind of made sense when looking through his filter. I think I mostly trust Damdred, but I'm not really sure I trust ritoky; it's a random tinfoil hat theory that I haven't had time to check yet. It's way too darn early
Do you have no opinion on my contributions?
|
Exo
Exo is aggressive and impatient, which are generally townie traits. Back when interacting with him on day 1 he seemed genuinely annoyed because he didn't believe me.
For the most part, traits like these are townie traits. Also, while I have sort of stopped reading Exo's posts since day 1 (I simply assumed my initial read was correct and ignored him for the most part after that). But the point stands, he is mad at people who are not trying to win the game:
On December 28 2015 02:23 ExO_ wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote Coagulation
If you can't be arsed to read the thread, answer any questions, or add to the game at all why the fuck are you here. Please go fuck off
Note that this is AFTER coag/rsoultin are unccd masons.
Add in what I wrote here:
On December 28 2015 18:50 Palmar wrote:
Exo is probably town. Also, I've read about 10 posts in the thread now and checked a few filter lengths. I'm glad rayn is playing and HF has a shorter than expected filter. But I haven't really read anything from either of them yet.
The reason I'm giving exo a maybe townread is his tinfoil hat theory regarding the mason claims. Most players who construct convoluted conspiracy theories, end up being townies. (If Exo is mafia, he would already know whether or not one or more of the mason claimers are mafia, so creating a theory becomes both more difficult, and it would make him worry about appearing to have extra information).
Which is also about his reaction to the mason claim, and I think it's relatively safe bet that exo is town.
Notice how in the vote on coag above, think about if exo is mafia:
If exo is mafia, he knows coag/rsoultin are at least two townies, and probably the masons, is he smart enough as mafia to get angry at someone telling the truth and then vote against what would be the reasonable approach? I don't remember playing with Exo as mafia, but it's a relatively complicated mafia play.
I am pretty much ok with taking Exo off the table completely.
|
also regarding kush, I just really hope he's town because I'd love for this new kush to be a thing where he's actually not a complete dickhead in games. Hell even if he is mafia, it's still a vast improvement. I like this new guy.
|
palmar dont be a tard vote slam now the tiebreaker can matter...
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
