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Okay so all things considered that last 10 minutes were pure bull.
On January 04 2016 07:48 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 07:15 Kmatt wrote:
Well. That was an interesting turn of events.
While I haven't given up my claim against GB (possibly even stronger now), Shining definitely got me thinking about the voting patterns. I had my suspicions about Shapelog but was hoping for the GB reveal to give me the info I needed.
I'm leaving for a while, and will probably spend most of the night phase working this out. And that's to say nothing of a potential NK. I didn't directly answer your question before but I didn't forget about you. Show nested quote +On January 03 2016 11:18 Kmatt wrote:
Don't know if anyone else just noticed but TheCow has been replaced by The Shining. I had my theories on Cow, but since his "character" has been replaced more or less I'd like our "new" friend to weigh in on some current events. Obviously he should read the thread when appropriate, but for when he's finished:
1) Seeing the previous days' discussion in the context current death toll, who or what do you think the biggest factor in Scott's mislynch was?
2) Similarly, why do you think the mafia went for Irish on the first night? (technically if we have both a doctor and vigilante in this game then that might not have been the case but for the sake of argument I'll assume Irish's death was the mafia's doing) Did any of his reads stand out to you or did any arguments he put out seem to be catching on with the thread?
3) Could you weigh in on my GB case? Obviously my opinion on the matter is plain to see, so I'd like to see some other people bounce ideas off of it. Do you think I over-reacted or overlooked anything in my wall of text?
Granted, anyone is invited to answer these, but since I didn't get to see much from Cow before he left, I'd like a bit more insight from his replacement. Irish flipped town and I have a pretty solid TR on NM, who are the first 2 votes on Scott. Irish also pushed this lynch pretty hard. I believe the lynch was a case of town adamantly pushing the town ML and scum having to do zero work on it. I wouldn't be surprised if there was only one scum on the Scott wagon and the rest were off-wagon. Like kush/noon. If i choose to believe GB is town, that leaves me with mderg/Fidei/Giygas as one of the scum on the Scott wagon. Kush can you explain to me how you went from voting Fidei WITH Onegu D1 to voting Onegu WITH Fidei D2? I also really hate outlier votes and have caught scum that way, because scum wouldn't want to all be on the wagon if its a mislynch, like Scotts wagon. So I'm immediately suspicious of Kmatt and Shapelog. But I found a few townie brownies in your filter and Shape is apparently being replaced or modkilled so I won't get too much into that until next day phase, assuming I live. I'll probably go read Fidei and mderg and giygas tonight. 2) I won't go too much into this, since I don't know the setup. If we have a doctor, he could've been a medic dodge. If we don't, it could've been for his strong presence in thread and being TR by many. It couldve been for his reads. It could've been the possibility of him revisiting his wrong reads. There are too many possibilities and since I don't know the setup, and neither does scum according to the OP, its really hard to figure out the motive behind that shot. 3) honestly, I skimmed it and it was a bit hard to follow. A bit too much narrative for my taste, instead of concrete reasoning for why GBs actions and posts made him scum. And I really thought I was onto something with the lack of friction RE: the GB lynch so I let that take over my actions. I can go revisit it if you'd like but I don't remember seeing anything that was distinctly "damn he's right GB is scummy" instead of "well I've seen bad town GB do bad stuff before". I will admit, though, that might just be bias from playing with a bad town GB before XD also, what exactly were you thinking about the voting patterns?
I'll admit I might have been having a bit of fun with my write-up. Still, there's one point I'd like to have explained by anyone at this point. I could tag most any of his quoted posts as being anti-town, but my biggest issue (which I'm honestly surprised that it seems to be overlooked) is right here:
On December 31 2015 04:10 GlowingBear wrote:
I've wrote it before. I've played with scott before and he is capable of doing that as town. I'm not lynching him over people I'm fairly confident are scum, simple as that.
(For context, he was voting on me day1)
On December 31 2015 06:48 GlowingBear wrote:Then I'm voting you Scott, sorry, but I have a stronger townread on him than you
Now what in the hell was this.
GB Believes me to be scum
GB Asserts that Scott is town
GB Declares that he would not lynch Scott over a stronger scumread (me)
GB Drops his vote on a scumread(me) to intentionally vote Scott who he believed to be town, not because he believed Scott was scum, but because Scott was going to vote Onegu, who GB claimed he had a stronger townread on.
Nevermind that Onegu had 0 votes to Scott's leading 4 at the time of the post. At least the other people on Scott's wagon claimed he was scum. GB doesn't even pretend to believe that.
And we all know how that ended. That entire logic train leading to the vote switch was entirely anti-town.
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On January 04 2016 08:58 nooniansoong wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 08:49 The Shining wrote:On January 04 2016 08:19 Kmatt wrote:Okay so all things considered that last 10 minutes were pure bull. On January 04 2016 07:48 The Shining wrote:On January 04 2016 07:15 Kmatt wrote:
Well. That was an interesting turn of events.
While I haven't given up my claim against GB (possibly even stronger now), Shining definitely got me thinking about the voting patterns. I had my suspicions about Shapelog but was hoping for the GB reveal to give me the info I needed.
I'm leaving for a while, and will probably spend most of the night phase working this out. And that's to say nothing of a potential NK. I didn't directly answer your question before but I didn't forget about you. On January 03 2016 11:18 Kmatt wrote:
Don't know if anyone else just noticed but TheCow has been replaced by The Shining. I had my theories on Cow, but since his "character" has been replaced more or less I'd like our "new" friend to weigh in on some current events. Obviously he should read the thread when appropriate, but for when he's finished:
1) Seeing the previous days' discussion in the context current death toll, who or what do you think the biggest factor in Scott's mislynch was?
2) Similarly, why do you think the mafia went for Irish on the first night? (technically if we have both a doctor and vigilante in this game then that might not have been the case but for the sake of argument I'll assume Irish's death was the mafia's doing) Did any of his reads stand out to you or did any arguments he put out seem to be catching on with the thread?
3) Could you weigh in on my GB case? Obviously my opinion on the matter is plain to see, so I'd like to see some other people bounce ideas off of it. Do you think I over-reacted or overlooked anything in my wall of text?
Granted, anyone is invited to answer these, but since I didn't get to see much from Cow before he left, I'd like a bit more insight from his replacement. Irish flipped town and I have a pretty solid TR on NM, who are the first 2 votes on Scott. Irish also pushed this lynch pretty hard. I believe the lynch was a case of town adamantly pushing the town ML and scum having to do zero work on it. I wouldn't be surprised if there was only one scum on the Scott wagon and the rest were off-wagon. Like kush/noon. If i choose to believe GB is town, that leaves me with mderg/Fidei/Giygas as one of the scum on the Scott wagon. Kush can you explain to me how you went from voting Fidei WITH Onegu D1 to voting Onegu WITH Fidei D2? I also really hate outlier votes and have caught scum that way, because scum wouldn't want to all be on the wagon if its a mislynch, like Scotts wagon. So I'm immediately suspicious of Kmatt and Shapelog. But I found a few townie brownies in your filter and Shape is apparently being replaced or modkilled so I won't get too much into that until next day phase, assuming I live. I'll probably go read Fidei and mderg and giygas tonight. 2) I won't go too much into this, since I don't know the setup. If we have a doctor, he could've been a medic dodge. If we don't, it could've been for his strong presence in thread and being TR by many. It couldve been for his reads. It could've been the possibility of him revisiting his wrong reads. There are too many possibilities and since I don't know the setup, and neither does scum according to the OP, its really hard to figure out the motive behind that shot. 3) honestly, I skimmed it and it was a bit hard to follow. A bit too much narrative for my taste, instead of concrete reasoning for why GBs actions and posts made him scum. And I really thought I was onto something with the lack of friction RE: the GB lynch so I let that take over my actions. I can go revisit it if you'd like but I don't remember seeing anything that was distinctly "damn he's right GB is scummy" instead of "well I've seen bad town GB do bad stuff before". I will admit, though, that might just be bias from playing with a bad town GB before XD also, what exactly were you thinking about the voting patterns? I'll admit I might have been having a bit of fun with my write-up. Still, there's one point I'd like to have explained by anyone at this point. I could tag most any of his quoted posts as being anti-town, but my biggest issue (which I'm honestly surprised that it seems to be overlooked) is right here: On December 31 2015 04:10 GlowingBear wrote:
I've wrote it before. I've played with scott before and he is capable of doing that as town. I'm not lynching him over people I'm fairly confident are scum, simple as that. (For context, he was voting on me day1) On December 31 2015 06:48 GlowingBear wrote:On December 31 2015 06:47 scott31337 wrote:
Im voting with Onegu instead Then I'm voting you Scott, sorry, but I have a stronger townread on him than you Now what in the hell was this. GB Believes me to be scum GB Asserts that Scott is town GB Declares that he would not lynch Scott over a stronger scumread (me) GB Drops his vote on a scumread(me) to intentionally vote Scott who he believed to be town, not because he believed Scott was scum, but because Scott was going to vote Onegu, who GB claimed he had a stronger townread on. Nevermind that Onegu had 0 votes to Scott's leading 4 at the time of the post. At least the other people on Scott's wagon claimed he was scum. GB doesn't even pretend to believe that. And we all know how that ended. That entire logic train leading to the vote switch was entirely anti-town. Well Shining has learned that he shouldn't lead lynch shenannies. This, plus the D1 lynch on a blue Kush lol. I'm saying this because I agree with this and feel I could've very well fucked up. I actually just mentioned this in one of my last posts. GBs vote looks rrally bad. But Scott was already in the lead for lynch so why would GB make himself look this bad by adding onto it and contradicting his own read? I do need clarification on one thing, though. I thought he was saying his townread on FID was stronger than his TR on Scott. Not his TR on Onegu > Scott. GB confirm/deny? Regardless it's not good logic for voting someone you said you wouldn't vote... I'm not saying it makes him town, but GB voting scott because he had more of a TR on fidei than scott seems like it makes sense to me.
Why the hell would he voting anyone who isn't a scumread? You can have the dumbest scumread in the world but at least it makes sense to vote for scum. He voted to lynch his own townread.
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I'm tunneling a bit here so I'm gonna brush up all my reads and report before the night ends if no one has questions for me.
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And by "a bit" I mean it's all I've done since the start of night one.
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You know I had my suspicions that Cow/Shining was blue but damn detective? We really needed that for the last days.
I was pretty skeptical about his sudden post and GiygaS' vote switch when GB was on the table but if Shining really was a blue, then the only scenario where GiygaS fits in as scum would be if they had planned to vote switch two off of GB (or one from another wagon to put it at 4-5) at the last minute and Shining did half the work for them. I'm willing to put away that crackpot theory for the time being, which leaves us with...
Shapelog/FecalFeast: Shape was dubious at best before, but a lot of my grievances with him was his sudden disappearance. Now that we know about the surgery and FF's activity so far I'll peg him as town.
GiygaS: While that voteswitch was sketchy, Shining did have a point, and he clearly wasn't trying to trick anyone. Outside of my crackpot theory I've not a lot of reason reason to suspect him. Slight town.
NocturneMage: My safest townread second only to Cow/Shining. I'll give his filter the once-over since there's been a lot out of him to be sure, but so far I have no complaints against him. Town.
Fidei: I don't like how inactive he's been, but that's been the case for three townies so far (Scott, Onegu, and TheCow were all afk early on and they've all flipped town). However, if he doesn't come in with some solid scumreads today I'm gonna have a problem here. Slight scum.
GlowingBear: I don't really buy or even get that explanation for the Scott vote and there's been a lot of anti-town posting
coming from him. Especially considering how few players are left, I can't really see a scenario where he's not scum. Unless someone can show me solid evidence that there's a better shot in someone else I'm keeping my vote right here.
Scum.
I have to run out so I can't finish my bit on mderg and kush.
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On January 05 2016 08:42 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2016 08:19 Kmatt wrote:Okay so all things considered that last 10 minutes were pure bull. On January 04 2016 07:48 The Shining wrote:On January 04 2016 07:15 Kmatt wrote:
Well. That was an interesting turn of events.
While I haven't given up my claim against GB (possibly even stronger now), Shining definitely got me thinking about the voting patterns. I had my suspicions about Shapelog but was hoping for the GB reveal to give me the info I needed.
I'm leaving for a while, and will probably spend most of the night phase working this out. And that's to say nothing of a potential NK. I didn't directly answer your question before but I didn't forget about you. On January 03 2016 11:18 Kmatt wrote:
Don't know if anyone else just noticed but TheCow has been replaced by The Shining. I had my theories on Cow, but since his "character" has been replaced more or less I'd like our "new" friend to weigh in on some current events. Obviously he should read the thread when appropriate, but for when he's finished:
1) Seeing the previous days' discussion in the context current death toll, who or what do you think the biggest factor in Scott's mislynch was?
2) Similarly, why do you think the mafia went for Irish on the first night? (technically if we have both a doctor and vigilante in this game then that might not have been the case but for the sake of argument I'll assume Irish's death was the mafia's doing) Did any of his reads stand out to you or did any arguments he put out seem to be catching on with the thread?
3) Could you weigh in on my GB case? Obviously my opinion on the matter is plain to see, so I'd like to see some other people bounce ideas off of it. Do you think I over-reacted or overlooked anything in my wall of text?
Granted, anyone is invited to answer these, but since I didn't get to see much from Cow before he left, I'd like a bit more insight from his replacement. Irish flipped town and I have a pretty solid TR on NM, who are the first 2 votes on Scott. Irish also pushed this lynch pretty hard. I believe the lynch was a case of town adamantly pushing the town ML and scum having to do zero work on it. I wouldn't be surprised if there was only one scum on the Scott wagon and the rest were off-wagon. Like kush/noon. If i choose to believe GB is town, that leaves me with mderg/Fidei/Giygas as one of the scum on the Scott wagon. Kush can you explain to me how you went from voting Fidei WITH Onegu D1 to voting Onegu WITH Fidei D2? I also really hate outlier votes and have caught scum that way, because scum wouldn't want to all be on the wagon if its a mislynch, like Scotts wagon. So I'm immediately suspicious of Kmatt and Shapelog. But I found a few townie brownies in your filter and Shape is apparently being replaced or modkilled so I won't get too much into that until next day phase, assuming I live. I'll probably go read Fidei and mderg and giygas tonight. 2) I won't go too much into this, since I don't know the setup. If we have a doctor, he could've been a medic dodge. If we don't, it could've been for his strong presence in thread and being TR by many. It couldve been for his reads. It could've been the possibility of him revisiting his wrong reads. There are too many possibilities and since I don't know the setup, and neither does scum according to the OP, its really hard to figure out the motive behind that shot. 3) honestly, I skimmed it and it was a bit hard to follow. A bit too much narrative for my taste, instead of concrete reasoning for why GBs actions and posts made him scum. And I really thought I was onto something with the lack of friction RE: the GB lynch so I let that take over my actions. I can go revisit it if you'd like but I don't remember seeing anything that was distinctly "damn he's right GB is scummy" instead of "well I've seen bad town GB do bad stuff before". I will admit, though, that might just be bias from playing with a bad town GB before XD also, what exactly were you thinking about the voting patterns? I'll admit I might have been having a bit of fun with my write-up. Still, there's one point I'd like to have explained by anyone at this point. I could tag most any of his quoted posts as being anti-town, but my biggest issue (which I'm honestly surprised that it seems to be overlooked) is right here: On December 31 2015 04:10 GlowingBear wrote:
I've wrote it before. I've played with scott before and he is capable of doing that as town. I'm not lynching him over people I'm fairly confident are scum, simple as that. (For context, he was voting on me day1) On December 31 2015 06:48 GlowingBear wrote:On December 31 2015 06:47 scott31337 wrote:
Im voting with Onegu instead Then I'm voting you Scott, sorry, but I have a stronger townread on him than you Now what in the hell was this. GB Believes me to be scum GB Asserts that Scott is town GB Declares that he would not lynch Scott over a stronger scumread (me) GB Drops his vote on a scumread(me) to intentionally vote Scott who he believed to be town, not because he believed Scott was scum, but because Scott was going to vote Onegu, who GB claimed he had a stronger townread on. Nevermind that Onegu had 0 votes to Scott's leading 4 at the time of the post. At least the other people on Scott's wagon claimed he was scum. GB doesn't even pretend to believe that. And we all know how that ended. That entire logic train leading to the vote switch was entirely anti-town. Just skimming through Kmatt's filter and this post really stands out to me. This is just a fucking bizarre argument to me. At the time when GB voted he was the only voter on you, and there were 4 on scott and three on me. It was EOD and there was a pretty heavily contested lynch. It would be MUCH scummier for GB to have AFK'd through the day and just taken the lynch on Onegu or me (both town). Instead, he consolidated onto Scott, who he thought was more scummy than me. I don't understand the confusion? Isn't that super towny?
He never said Scott was scummy though, just that Onegu was more towny. Choosing between who he saw as one scum (me) and two towns (Scott and Onegu) he points his gun away from me to aim at Scott.
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On January 05 2016 12:13 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2016 07:52 Kmatt wrote:
You know I had my suspicions that Cow/Shining was blue but damn detective? We really needed that for the last days.
I was pretty skeptical about his sudden post and GiygaS' vote switch when GB was on the table but if Shining really was a blue, then the only scenario where GiygaS fits in as scum would be if they had planned to vote switch two off of GB (or one from another wagon to put it at 4-5) at the last minute and Shining did half the work for them. I'm willing to put away that crackpot theory for the time being, which leaves us with...
Shapelog/FecalFeast: Shape was dubious at best before, but a lot of my grievances with him was his sudden disappearance. Now that we know about the surgery and FF's activity so far I'll peg him as town.
GiygaS: While that voteswitch was sketchy, Shining did have a point, and he clearly wasn't trying to trick anyone. Outside of my crackpot theory I've not a lot of reason reason to suspect him. Slight town.
NocturneMage: My safest townread second only to Cow/Shining. I'll give his filter the once-over since there's been a lot out of him to be sure, but so far I have no complaints against him. Town.
Fidei: I don't like how inactive he's been, but that's been the case for three townies so far (Scott, Onegu, and TheCow were all afk early on and they've all flipped town). However, if he doesn't come in with some solid scumreads today I'm gonna have a problem here. Slight scum.
GlowingBear: I don't really buy or even get that explanation for the Scott vote and there's been a lot of anti-town posting
coming from him. Especially considering how few players are left, I can't really see a scenario where he's not scum. Unless someone can show me solid evidence that there's a better shot in someone else I'm keeping my vote right here.
Scum.
I have to run out so I can't finish my bit on mderg and kush. Why did you think the cow was blue?
The way he was questioning me when I had a wagon going even though I was already voted on led me to believe that he was considering Vig shotting me. Obviously we know that's not the case, but it could have been that he scanned me night one. That would explain why he didn't bother questioning me much after that initial quizzing.
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On January 06 2016 02:22 GlowingBear wrote:
Kmatt, Giygas, can you give your opinions on every other players in the game please?
Funny you ask that since I did that in #1032.
On January 05 2016 07:52 Kmatt wrote:
You know I had my suspicions that Cow/Shining was blue but damn detective? We really needed that for the last days.
I was pretty skeptical about his sudden post and GiygaS' vote switch when GB was on the table but if Shining really was a blue, then the only scenario where GiygaS fits in as scum would be if they had planned to vote switch two off of GB (or one from another wagon to put it at 4-5) at the last minute and Shining did half the work for them. I'm willing to put away that crackpot theory for the time being, which leaves us with...
Shapelog/FecalFeast: Shape was dubious at best before, but a lot of my grievances with him was his sudden disappearance. Now that we know about the surgery and FF's activity so far I'll peg him as town.
GiygaS: While that voteswitch was sketchy, Shining did have a point, and he clearly wasn't trying to trick anyone. Outside of my crackpot theory I've not a lot of reason reason to suspect him. Slight town.
NocturneMage: My safest townread second only to Cow/Shining. I'll give his filter the once-over since there's been a lot out of him to be sure, but so far I have no complaints against him. Town.
Fidei: I don't like how inactive he's been, but that's been the case for three townies so far (Scott, Onegu, and TheCow were all afk early on and they've all flipped town). However, if he doesn't come in with some solid scumreads today I'm gonna have a problem here. Slight scum.
GlowingBear: I don't really buy or even get that explanation for the Scott vote and there's been a lot of anti-town posting
coming from him. Especially considering how few players are left, I can't really see a scenario where he's not scum. Unless someone can show me solid evidence that there's a better shot in someone else I'm keeping my vote right here.
Scum.
I have to run out so I can't finish my bit on mderg and kush.
As for those last two:
mderg: I do find it odd that there seem to be no original thoughts in his filter. While I agree with the notion that being conversational-styled isn't inherently scummy, I haven't seen any posts where he says "Hey look I think X is scum and here's why". He does say that he has too many townreads, but at this stage in the game there should be ample arguments to be made. He does ask a lot of questions, but they never lead to a conclusion. To me, a real townie would be using those answers and information to build a case. I've seen nothing really helpful out of him, and by PoE, I'm gonna have to call scum here unless shown otherwise. Scum.
Noon/Kush: His posts seem a little more genuine but I'm not sold on him being town yet. I've got two better reads so far, and Fidei is still in the air for me. I'll call Null for now. I know I should be explaining a bit more here but for some reason I draw a blank on him. I'll try and revisit later today to come up with a better answer on him.
With that said I'm gonna have to pick up my torch on my best read.
##vote GlowingBear
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On January 06 2016 04:21 Fecalfeast wrote:
kmatt did I read somewhere that this is your first game?
Correct. I played the SC2 Mafia custom to learn the rules but this is my first actual game.
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He switched to Onegu because Shining was convinced something was wrong with the voting patterns. He could have been part of a last-minute shenanigans plot but since Shining was blue that seems too coincidental.
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While I can't pin the vote switch yesterday as being inherently scummy, the fact that GiygaS skirted by for so long with so little contribution to the thread is troubling. I've only got about 20 minutes before I head out for the rest of this day phase (curse you Wednesday morning shifts) so if anyone has anything to run by me I need to hear it and now. If my math is right another mislynch today and we're six kinds of screwed. Not that I doubt my reads but I want to be as sure as possible since I can't respond to any shenanigans.
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Kind of the same feeling here. I think more of my claim to him isn't so much being maliciously scummy, but just not very good town play. We've already had two mislynches for lazy/questionable town play, so I'd feel much better going against an actively scummy target this time.
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What's wrong with my post?
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Ah well nothing more for me here.
Good luck boys don't much this up.
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That obs QT.
So convinced I was scum yet so in denial of it. Unfortunately I won't be able to pull my newb card anymore but definitely looking forward to next game.
Also props to DYH, solid advice.
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On January 07 2016 21:28 nooniansoong wrote:
Kmart I made a bad assumption that first game player couldn't make that megacase. I guess I wasn't accounting for the coach effect?
Nm yeah.. I stopped looking at his posts critically because of two reasons. I assumed that only town had his type of analytical content. Although now that I think back it was more like high caliber nitpicking. Also his last scumgame sucked and His play this game was an astonomical jump, which made him being scum less likely in my mind.
reee etc.
I actually made the great wall by myself. The content of posts was all written by me, DYH was giving tips on things like when to be active and following up posts.
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EPT
