EPTI might make a mini case on Vivax just to remind everyone why he really should be the lynch today.
I've been fine giving you posts Shape, but apparently that's a scummy thing when I do it so screw you.
TL Mafia LXXIII: The Nutcracker - Page 9
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I might make a mini case on Vivax just to remind everyone why he really should be the lynch today. I've been fine giving you posts Shape, but apparently that's a scummy thing when I do it so screw you. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Had a power outage in my area so power was off for the whole block for about 12 hours. Useing a little time at work to catchup but I got word that everything is back on at home so I'll be at it in about 30 min with more detailed posts. I've realized I was being niave about several things at the start of day but I'm still not sure that I want to conclude Shape is fakeclaiming here even if it's more likely than me being a 2nd wanderer. Just seems highly unlikely especially since there have been no other claims. I know who I want to lynch tomorrow, and I was working on a case, but lost some of it when the power went out. I'll get back to work on that when I get home, may not get it done till day though. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
For me it's these 3 people. Gigas: Slowly but surely this guy has been changing my mind since D1. He's been active despite posting excuses to not be and while he hasn't made a great deal of reads he's been careful about the reads he does have. It was his responses to Shapes case that really have me convinced he is town though. He pointed out the errors in Shapes math and was generally against the case, and even though he eventually changed his mind and now thinks I am scum he was not willing to lynch me over Vivax. Onegu (aka Sukrit): So obviously town, I really felt this D1 granted he's slacked off a bit since then I still think this is true. It's not exactly easy to read Onegu, but when he is town he generally does w/e the hell he wants until it is MyLo/LyLo and then he tries to bring his A game. His vote D2 on Koshi falls into the "doing what he wants" which is quite often poking at Koshi for reactions, but I think you can already see his reactions picking up again now that we are in LyLo. There's another reason why Onegu is lock town for me, but I'll get to that later. LS: Weakest of my townreads atm. His overall attitude has been carefree and relaxed. He voted for me rather quickly yesterday, but then what town doesn't put faith in an unCC'd blue claim like that? There are weaker reasons such as Meta to read LS as town here, but it's both his tone and lack of pushing a solid agenda that have me convinced. Never lynch these 3 people imo. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Tube made the claim that he got a candy and from it was able to rolecheck someone, for whatever reason he picked Vivax, and got the result that Vivax is RB. It's been brought up a few times, but this claim is literally the easiest thing to do as scum since he would already know Vivax's role. Still the question then becomes, why bother claiming then rather than simply pushing Vivax? If Tube were scum here and wanted to make a fakeclaim wouldn't he have chosen a differn't target to try and push scum onto and secure the win? Why prolong the game by outing a teammate rather than make a fakeclaim about a towny and try to get the mislynch? So initial conclusion about Tube: Possible scum, but unlikely. Shape has been a solid townread of mine all game. He is also the only person to have claimed blue, however his claim is that I visited Kush N2. Since I got a VT role PM there can only be 2 possibilities about Shape. 1) He is scum fakeclaiming 2) He is town, and the tracker and I either got screwed over by being one of multiple wanderers or possibly somehow was forced to visit the KP target by a candy. Given that he is unCC'd and that I've been pretty convinced Shape is town all game #2 was the initial conclusion I came to. Now that I've done my own checking about setup I see that this is the far less likely option and I was a fool to believe it so easily. So Shape is probably mafia. Damdred was another person I was townreading at the start of this cycle, but I'm now convinced that I've been even more naive about him than shape. I was giving him way too much credit for the D1 shenannie onto Vivax, it seems like something that scum would never bother to do, but then that also makes it a nice and easy thing as scum to look more towny. Besides if you look at Damdred's D2 you will notice he hardly even bothers to mention Vivax even though he is very wishy washy about the lynch on Rels. Damdred has been pretty hit and miss all game, but his play suddenly gets a lot more involved as soon as Shape makes his claim and is pushing me. Damdred is almost certainly mafia here. He is the one I've been making a case on and is my preferred lynch tomorrow. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I'm sure I'm never getting night killed this game, but I still thought I should share my reads before Daypost just in case. I'll be trying to pickup the pieces of my old case on Damdred, but might take the opportunity to reread and double check things a little before posting it (so don't expect it right after Daypost, sometime tonight though for sure). I look forward to a day full of people voting me, and possibly largely ignoring most of what I have to say. After all.. Tis the season! Happy Holidays everyone! | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I was thinking about the candy and setup stuff a lot yesterday. Given that we only know of 2 candies being claimed I'm starting to wonder how many were held by the townies who got mislynched or NK'd at the start of the game. The extra KP for mafia N2 might not have been the only present they got, and it's also quite possible that town lost a fair few extra actions being carried by GB, Rit, Rels, Koshi, or Kush. This is ofc assuming that the candy is lost on death not RNG'd back into the game. I think we'd know if the latter were the case though. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 07:45 Damdred wrote: TT answer this question You never used any candy this game correct. I never got any candy, nor am I a role, nor was I gifted any night actions. As far as I am aware I am VT. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 07:47 Damdred wrote: Tt is scum I applaud the effort though Your certanty about me will only make me stronger! | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 07:52 Damdred wrote: Then why do you keep trying to put the idea out there someone used a candy on you when it's a lie. Because I don't know if it's possible to do that or not? I have no idea how they work besides what is posted in the OP. What makes you so sure you do know how the candies work? | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 07:49 Shapelog wrote: TT and Onegu Because TT didn't even talked about The Dumbtell i been talking about all game. For both days. He usually has been jumping on my stuff and this was before i got drunk. Weird isn't it he doesn't jump on this? This one: I said last night that i thought this was a dumbtell and neither Onegu or TT commented on it. And why would you as scum? someone who is everywhere on everyones list and even says "its is prob. Tinfoil", easy to slide under the Radar. I don't have a clue what you mean here. Who is dumbtelling? Why does either me or Onegu commenting about about this mean anything? | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 07:56 Damdred wrote: Because I asked hts and she told me Ah benefits of Scum QT I see. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
So now there is a confirmed blue in Gig, Shape claiming 1 shot tracker, and 2 candies having been opened. We also know Scum had a RB. Humm, gunna check some stuff about setup. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 08:10 LightningStrike wrote: oh it was giy. Well guys I got mafia here: Parity Cop here and here was my checks: Damdred-Koshi: Same Alignment. Koshi- Tictock: Different Alignment. Tictock you can now post baby seals  ##Vote: Tictock ![[image loading]](http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02667/polarbear_2667188b.jpg) NO! F my Life. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 08:19 Damdred wrote: Hey Tt I got a question for you. I might answer. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Nobody in their right mind tracks me N2 ^.^ Got so lucky. Btw Shape I didn't copy you on the Rit tinfoil, we each got there on our own. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 08:33 LightningStrike wrote: Wrong animal dude  It's baby seals not polarbears Not for me, besides... This was all that's left of the seal | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Good to know that even as I'm going down I can make plays to help my team ^.^ Still ofc I understand that it was going to be a long couple of cycles over the Holiday which is why I started thinking about conceding before we lynched Vivax. GG everyone. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 14:04 ritoky wrote: yeah we had a similar situation in the last game as mafia that you guys had, and me and palmar both advocated shooting palmar for credit, which led to our team winning. also read the obs qt cuz idk how anyone alive didn't know LS was blue since like...forever ago. Blue hunting is not something I'm very good at obv >.< Still, feel pretty good about how far we got. Only my 2nd game as scum ever too! And while I don't blame Vivax, I do wish he had put a little more effort into at least participating in Scum QT, we coulda made D3 a lot harder for town by playing off each other. As it was I saw no way around bussing him, which is why I tried to setup that possibility so early on. Pretty sure if it hadn't been for the checks I could have pushed Damdred pretty hard based on his play D2 and the way he ignored Vivax and voted for his townread Rels. Actually I still can't believe you guys lynched Rels there, lol I was sure you all would shenannie back to Vivax. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On December 23 2015 14:11 ritoky wrote: why me over koshi btw? cuz i was just more right at the time? More fun WIFOM to spout out ^.^ Also yea Koshi was more all over the place and was even a possible mislynch. Not sure out kills N2 were the best tbh, but we were kinda still going for WIFOM onto Damdred. I also think it was silly for me to not try and claim the shot on Kush, I even set myself up to claim with that Kush read EoN, but I felt like there was no way town!Me would have shot Kush over Vivax. I prob coulda claimed that I opened a candy and it fizzeled though or w/e it would have done had it been the candy to make me visit the NK. Meh, I just wasn't into the idea of trying for a bunch of candy claims, but especially for being in 5/3 D3 I should try to make those plays. | ||
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