EPT
They both look believable as I thought Vivax was pretty scummy all game and never did jack shit and Shape had looked rally townie in my opinion. So hard to chose from those 2 :oTL Mafia LXXIII: The Nutcracker - Page 70
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
They both look believable as I thought Vivax was pretty scummy all game and never did jack shit and Shape had looked rally townie in my opinion. So hard to chose from those 2 :o | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
Damm damdred "parmar" has fucked over my roles | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
On December 20 2015 18:28 GiygaS wrote: Fuck it, im not gonna sleep right now anyway. Let's assume you are telling the truth in your claim that you saw TT go to Kush's last night. There are multiple reasons this could happen: - TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective) - TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) - TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate) - TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely not even going to bother) - TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI) Note that these most likely won't add up to 1 since we're ignoring/fubbing a bunch of things. This is incredibly shady math and I hate myself for doing it, but it's better than the one above so I'll make the sacrifice. Let's say there were 2-3 blue roles in the game. Save you, that means there's 1-2 left. We'll add an additional multiplier based on the specific blue role he had to get (1/4 since we'll ignore tracker). We'll also assume that if he is blue he purposefully visited kush. P(TT is blue) = 0.03125 - 0.0625 Now we know there are 3 mafia. Then the chance mafia chose him to use kp is 1/3. (Assuming the mafia wanted to kill kush) P(TT is mafia) = 0.125 With our assumption of 1-2 Blue, and 3 mafia. There are 3-4 greens left. Additionally apply odds of him getting chocolate (we'll say 1/4 again) and of him visiting kush (1/9). P(TT is chocolate) = 0.01042 - 0.01389 We'll say there were 2-3 gifts handed out in general (out of the 13 players). For our purposes, the gifts that apply here are rolecheck, watcher, and visiting the person who gets nightkilled (this one is important). For the first two, odds are 1/9 he would visit kush. For the third, odds of him visiting kush would be 100%. P(TT got a non-gun gift and used it on kush) = 0.02686 - 0.040293 Sum range: 0.19353 - 0.241683 "Actual" probability (just much closer) of each: - TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective) 12.9% - 32.3% - TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) 51.7% - 64.6% - TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate) 4.3% - 7.2% - TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely he wouldn't shoot vivax. Not even going to bother) ~0% - TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI) 11.1% - 20.8% Again, these are very rough, but closer. Sleep time. Yeah this is roughly correct. What i get for doing a subject that i hate at 2:00 am But do you not, math wizard, have to instead factoring now out of people left (X/8), have to factor the chances of him getting wander or blue role from X/13 because that is how many roles there are? For the gifts though. Do you not have to add the probability of him getting the gift in the first place (which at best is 3/13)?I know they can be given to other players, but let said they weren't. Heck, do you not have to factor the chance of him getting wanderer from set-up (again 3/13 bast case) and * it against the chance he visted kush (1/9)? If not then that is my mistake. But it makes sense, (at least in my mind) to multiple the chance he got wanderer * the chance he visted kush. Also supposedly the Role-check was used by TS. so two presents if he didn't lie. And let say TS is correct and that maybe, just maybe, vivax is town rb. then their is a 1/13 to a 2/13 chance (since i am blue) of him from set-up and time the muti. of 1/4 like you said. comes down to a 1.92% - 3.84% chance once you add the chance of even getting the blue role from start. You know what, i am just going to redo my math for all the points you pointed out except with the x/13 chance of getting it blah blah blah factored in. gettting chocolate: 3/13 (chance he got it) * 1/10 (chance he visted kush last night) = 2.30% Gifts: So 1/13 chance of getting a present. then X/7 chance it is present. TT got gift of gun: Let just say he did have gun and shot kush (even though that would be crazy) 1/13 (of getting present) * 1/7(getting present of gun) * 100 to convert it to percent so 1.09% TT got other two gifts(watcher and stuff): 1/13 * 2/7 = 2.08% TT got gift of garlic (or the one that lets you vist night kill): 1.09% (And i know who he visted with a "gift" so) So for me with factoring the 3/13 in got: Blue chance: 1.92% -3.84% Getting chocolate: 2.30% Got the two gifts: 2.08% Mafia chance stolen from you: "- TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) 51.7% - 64.6%" Other possibility: 20% roughly so roughly 80/100 percent is here. And this is just raw probability. I think i can find the last 20% Blue chance: 1.92%-3.84% Getting chocolate: 2.30% Got the two gifts: 2.08% Mafia : 71.7% - 84.6 % (20% can only go one place )  But hey, might be wrong with using the initial X/13 role getting logic. But to me, it doesn't make sense using X/8 for role prob. since it doesn't change from the X/13chance.Also you mess up. 1/10 chance instead of 1/9 for who could be targeted last night. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
2/13 * 100 = 15.38% Then the 1/2 chance he is killing (1/1 IMO if he is the child) so 50% Knew they were going to kill Kush 100% You know what.... I am not the one who needs to do math when only sleeping for 4 hours. Just wanted to bring up the X/13 chance vs X/8 chance | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
Right now offering vivax up as tribute to carry the game is a real play I would think about playing. Its not 100% but I want tube to answer me why he checked vivax over say the more contested people in the thread? For example onegu myself or even gig would offer much more information than vivax who was basically lock scum after his eod. And the Tt matter I think we lynch vivax and then we lynch Tt I'll read Tt filter and then give a better opinion. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
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GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
On December 21 2015 00:02 Damdred wrote: The dangerous thing here is tube I think. Right now offering vivax up as tribute to carry the game is a real play I would think about playing. Its not 100% but I want tube to answer me why he checked vivax over say the more contested people in the thread? For example onegu myself or even gig would offer much more information than vivax who was basically lock scum after his eod. And the Tt matter I think we lynch vivax and then we lynch Tt I'll read Tt filter and then give a better opinion. Yeah that was my same thought process when i saw his present post. That is why it is fun to think about, because if he is mafia that would mean he just gave Vivax a 50/50 when everyone just came into today ready to vote him. You know TS all game has been saying "Well if you can't be reading his post, your scum?" Like he didn't want me to post my edit for my 1st WoT when the quotes broke. This is prob. NAI though at the moment. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
On December 21 2015 00:04 GiygaS wrote: Shape look up the monty hall problem Is that the one with the doors and about you have a better chance if you pick door number two or switching doors or something? | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
Like reading his filter there's an obvious moment that he's scum reading kush still. So could be town still. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
Then compare the chances it is 1/999,999 that your door you pick is right vs 1/2 that the other door is right. That one right? | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
On December 21 2015 00:13 Shapelog wrote: Like the one where you pick one door out of the million and all but the one you pick and one are opened to reveal nothing? Then compare the chances it is 1/999,999 that your door you pick is right vs 1/2 that the other door is right. That one right? OH OH OH OH OH OH OH OH I GET IT KNOW. BECAUSE YOU KNOW THAT X/13 CAN NOT BE RIGHT BECAUSE ALL THE PEOPLE WHO DIED ARE TOWN. AND THAT X/8 IS CORRECT. THAT IS WHY YOU USED X/8!!!!!!!! OH MY GOD I AM LEARNING! Still like 51-60% that he is mafia compare to Vivaxs 50/50 lol. | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
IDK, I consider. I just think the Vobby lynch is too temping. | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
Find out in the next exciting episode of Mafia Ball Z! | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
On December 21 2015 00:20 Damdred wrote: If he's detective and visiting his scum read who died what's the point of outing himself again? So if his second day person is alive that he check, we know more info. But i guess i can understand this argument. IDK i feel like mafia played a jester mafia this game. Or a very in active mafia. | ||
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GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
On December 21 2015 00:25 GiygaS wrote: I also did put in the chance of actually getting the gift in my calculation so you didn't have to. I'm also applying modifiers in my own head (this doesn't affect the percentages) based on how scummy they're acting. The second part of your post is saying that he's too town to be town when that really doesn't make sense. What was your first reasoning that TT was Town? was it a scum/town read or the way he was posting? I guess what i am getting at is he is trying to look town to the town. Koshi as town tried to be in active and everyone scum read him because of it (except you) Same thing happen to TT. Koshi post more content, insta-town read. Same happened mostly to TT. I just think with the track he is doing it as mafia to gain cred. IT makes sense to me, with all my tinfoil and booze. Oh well i guess vobby is just going to get lynch by yall. Like i am 70% certain i am not changing votes today | ||
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Shapelog
United States5185 Posts
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