EPTYeah i posted this 6 seconds after you posted present.
also wanted to see if you claim a role that A. didn't exist or B. didn't make sense. Was too dead on for a Clara check so i wanted to see.
TL Mafia LXXIII: The Nutcracker - Page 69
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
Yeah i posted this 6 seconds after you posted present. also wanted to see if you claim a role that A. didn't exist or B. didn't make sense. Was too dead on for a Clara check so i wanted to see. | ||
|
Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
| ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
| ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
On December 20 2015 14:13 Tubesock wrote: you going to vote Vivax or what? Wait till my big ass WoT comes out and you see why i am not voting Vivax. I got my own info i am working off in that regards lol. Also because there is a chance you are mafia BSing a present results. So i like to post my case since this is basically Lylynch | ||
|
Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On December 20 2015 14:14 Shapelog wrote: You should of posted it TS on page 66 so i would of gotten the star wars refence. Order 66, ankin death = third movie Haha that would be super baller. I'll go edit a post or something. Oh wait. | ||
|
Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On December 20 2015 14:17 Shapelog wrote: Wait till my big ass WoT comes out and you see why i am not voting Vivax. I got my own info i am working off in that regards lol. Also because there is a chance you are mafia BSing a present results. So i like to post my case since this is basically Lylynch no worries. This is a big deal and we have like 40 hours left. | ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
On December 20 2015 14:19 Tubesock wrote: no worries. This is a big deal and we have like 40 hours left. yeah that is why i am involving math/probability in my case, covering all angles | ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
| ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
| ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
Hes Scum! He visted Kush last night. And yes, i am claiming the blue role of Fritz Stahlbaum, I am a one-time tracker (since mechanics state a role can be one-shot two shot or mutishot). It is funny how i got this piece of info btw. I misunderstood my role haha. I thought i see who Vists the person i was TRACKING not the other way around. You can thank that misunderstanding when TT flips mafia 1st reason why he is scum over unlucky Miller: Probability Math! the greatest weakness of guess who games! Let us obverse the natural and non-natural (human mafia influence.) Natural: lets say the set up of the game was like this: 2-3 blue roles, 3 vt, 2-3 millers, 2-3 wanders, 3 scum. Best chance TT gets miller is 3/13 Chance of visting Kush last night 1/9 Natural chance (random shot basically) of mafia killing kush the same night: 1/9 3 * 1 * 1 = 3 13 * 9 * 9 = 1053 So a natural chance of all that happening is 3/1053 or 1/351 or .28 % Of ever happening! But, I can hear you say (or TT at least) what about human mafia? They are surly not ever going to randomly shot someone! that be unreasonable! and that is true.... But there is way we can roughly calculate the non-natural chance that mafia would shot Kush last night. Patterns. So far 2/3 of the night kills by mafia have been second hand town members. What do i mean by second hand? townies who have lack luster mafia cases and slash or low content. Only Koshi has broken this rule. So we can calcule with this pattern who is mafia target last night: TS: heck no with that Rels case does he fit in. (might be mafia...) Giygas Khan: No, he did that big case on me, and a few smaller, but good scum cases/posts analyzes. Damred: not a single real case past D1, and that wasn't even big. +1 (might be mafia) TT: Doesn't matter, hes mafia, he would be shooting, so subtract one from the bottom. But if we are calling him a miller, then no Kush: Check +1 Koshi: Nope..... Mafia probuly killed him for town cred (more on that later) Lets say mafia already knew they were going to kill him so we will exclude him to give TT the best chance here. Me: Hell no, I been their biggest advocate (again later on) Surkit: Yes, but i think he is mafia along with TT. LS: pretty meh, not enough to be out of this logic : +1 Vobby: checkish +1, if i was scum, might as well lynch him and get cred at this point though. So for the sake of it (and since everyone else is calling him mafia I put him with the mafia team for this) So 3/6 or 1/2 of the people were up to be shot by mafia last night. 3 * 1 * 1 = 3 13 * 9 * 2 = 234 So 3/234 or 1/78 or 1.2 % chance of it happening. 1.2% vs a .28 % for innocent miller to be caught going to a dead person's home. Awful chances of miller aren't they? So if he is mafia it is a 98.8% non natural chance and a 99.72 natural chance that he was visiting for mafia business. Go ahead and fight me if you think he was just visiting Kush for a drink on the night he died. Go ahead, i got math. 2nd reasoning: TT has done nothing that makes sense as mafia. I bet you read that and went "What?" how can you claim someone is mafia when they done nothing that makes sense. I think i told Damred best why when he posted this: On December 18 2015 08:53 Damdred wrote: Let me make it clear why I think Rels is town from that exchange specifically. 1) Mafia as a whole have a great sense of wanting to keep good apperances in thread. This comes from muddying pushing somewhat easy lunches avoiding hot topics. Most of this comes from not wanting to disturb waters and draw attention. On December 18 2015 09:20 Shapelog wrote: 1. So your saying "typically, mafia is more quiet then town and meh pushs easy targets." Ok, that makes sense. But how does that factor in. Can't Anyone decide not to follow the mafia's golden rule? How does that really make sense? just because 75% of people follow a logic makes the 25% all the more deadly. Idk, maybe it is because when i gotten mafia/scum in RL mafia games i play exactly the same. 1st off my biggest issue with this and TT is that it is hard for him to "Trend waters" as Damred claim mafia should do. Is that that is Exactly why everyone scum read TT at the beginning! Just like koshi, if he doesn't live up to his "town play" he is auto scum in people eyes. So he has to do these big reads and cases. Hes got to put up the show, to be believe as town. And that's it. It is like something known as security theater, it is not actual security, it is just a show of security like behavior and actions that makes everyone feel safe. That is what he is doing here. Lets go threw the list: Rik case: So TT enters the game after much inactiveness, (maybe planned) and comes in and has a magically same theory i had about Rik. About his hard ass town read on me. Everyone wrote it off as tinfoil basically, except him. Tell me, why in the world would mafia come into the game, see people are questioning he's side, and instead of posting a bunch of stuff and posting. He just jumps on this. He could easily saw my theory and jump on. You can how this actually HELPS a mafia. Let me run it again, nearing end of D1, before wagons really from. TT sees votes on him, realizes that no one paid attention to his Rik post for the most part, and is discussing lynching him. Makes a relative rushed post, and gets into a conversation with Riks. Everyone points out his post is rushed, so he does something unexcepting, he votes for Giyga Khan. At that point, he wasn't even really talked about in the terms of being scum. Well then people scum read him for wasting his vote. I can image at this point he was desperate. He knew the two wagons were town and town. Damred (who maybe is his partner) does shenanigans and he has to vote one or the other to avoid sus. about him voting GiygaS Khan. And hammers GB because "well i am sus. might as well do something more sus. so i look town". Then to give him more cred, he goes off me going hard onto Rik. then kills Rik. Koshi Vote: pretty self explaining. Knew he would be town and that a fellow team mate had a gun. Maybe onegu is with him lol. Kush kill: So here we are. The info that got me writing this WoT in the first place. But why would the person kill the person he just scum reads? Duh for the cred. On December 17 2015 08:46 kushm4sta wrote: So that's got to look good for me right? A townie saved me. It is different then from when Kush said he was more townie because Rik die. Remember how everyone thought this was a WIFOM move by mafia to cast sus. on me and kush? And everyone told Kush it was NAI? Kush didn't scum read Rik, in fact, he sided with rik. Compare this too: On December 20 2015 06:01 Tictock wrote: So Shape posted this, which I think is rather good. His conclusion is rahter mixed, prob town but with scummy posts? Looking at Kush's vote D2. Is pretty poor reasoning. And that's a pretty long maybe list for all the townreading he was doing earlier on... Kush might well be Mafia here. Then Kush dies. The night TT calls him scum, magically he visits the place with at best a 1.2% chance roughly as a miller? And the night before, digs up my read on kush which practically said "This guy is town, but he does have a few scummys posts" which clearly implies that they aren't big enough to make me think he was mafia. Then pulls up irrelevant D2 garage filter from Kushs filter to call him scum. Why would he do this as mafia? Because that has been his entire plan from the beginning! And it work so good to, I mean if it wasn't for my stupid mistake i would of not even have knew. But everything makes sense now. But it is time to drive home the "mafia is being obvious mafia to try to seem town" claim. 3rd reason: His trouble, dumbtell posts. On December 19 2015 08:14 Tictock wrote: Yea kus I'm fucking mafia here bussing all my teammates. You are the fucking king of Nonsense Koshi. And why the hell are you only talking in terms of Teams when we haven't lynched mafia yet? Gah, it's like you want me to tunnel you. Idk about Damdred (I don't think really he went hard after damdred tbh, more like "his play makes no sense! again") about about Vivax. Tell me why the hell mafia at this point shouldn't get rid of him if he is scum? Because he is a team mate? It is way to hard to defend his crap. It seems too good that mafia would just let one of their own get lynch without some plan. And guess what, the other two TT and ???? are doing just that, to get cred. Mafia will have too at this point either come out and lie about a role or just let him get lynch. But if Vivax is town (which according to TS could be a 50/50 right now bewteen mafia and town RB) then it is easy winnings right now. Keeping vivax alive as possible has been mafia key goal. No one except LS i think even glace at my post D2 when i keep bringing up Vobby. Why not keep town Vivax alive as long as possible. I still think he is scum, but honestly a coinflip right now (if what TS is saying is true, which for all i know could be mafia trying to influence voting) At our last lynch is super fucking dicey Dead Koshi post: On December 20 2015 11:56 Tictock wrote: This 100%. I know I would have shot Vobb... Vivax if I had had the chance. Even after that looking into Kush's poor reasoning vote onto Rels. This pretty much clears Damdred too based on his D1 vote, I don't think mafia would try to start shenannies when it's town v town like that. I think Vivax is the obvious lynch today. However the day is still young and I think Koshi has a really strong chance at being mafia with Vivax. So ##Vote: Koshi This is prob. NAI but is worth mentioning. Easy knowing that koshi is dieing to post this after day to basically be town. How does mafia forget who they are killing? Excellently, that is why he is mafia. Sees my post about vig and gun, Somehow misses the who conversation with LS about asking someone to claim up to who shot koshi (or maybe kush and TT had gun lol, no wait makes no sense) Skips Night flips and posts a koshi lynch. Because it seems townie. But this is his biggest dumbtell all game for the "obivous mafia being town" plan. Hell lets ponder if a town killed koshi last night. By his skimmyness alone, to not even look at who died. seems like a normal scum move. Wait....He HAD TO READ THE DAY CYCLE POST BECAUSE HE KNEW KUSH DIED! HOW IN THE HELL DID HE MISS KOSHI? Maybe skimming through to see if his night kill got healed! And you know what is funny? I FUCKING BROUGHT IT, SO DID EVERYONE ELSE! MAFIA TOO OBVIOUS? NO THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE. I mean give me your 1st reason that you ever thought of in this game that TT was town? Was it a town read? scum case? No, it was because it was posting like a mad man trying to get everyone to say "thats our boy" and it fucking work! Damm...... Conclusion: Which one do you feel more comfortable with? A almost 99% gaurtreed scum or a 50/50 scum? Pure probulbilty says that TT only has a 1.2 % of rolling town at this point. Vivax still has 50%! at this point. My money is on the 99% scum God i was so lucky ##Vote: TicTock I can not believe you betrayed me tinfoil buddy  you even killed the new member.Also if TS is mafia he fucked you over baldly because of a present call. Also Thanking my dumbness and my misunderstanding of the role lol. | ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
Sooo if anyone is on, ask questions or marvel in my probability.Honestly thank my dumbass for misunderstanding my role tbh. Like Tictock here is best lynch....99% basically vs TS present info that gives a 50/50 lynch for Vobby. Which one would you pick knowing there is no more mistakes. No more mislynchs.... Put your faith into the light, and lynch the swine! I made my case Comrades. Now we wait until next day, to where i can see three wagons. Mine, TT, and Vobby's. You know which on i be on. Also I am special, i am only Blue role that has reveal lol. Think koshius meation something about this lol. | ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
 Lets raise a pint for the lass !I should get drunk more often this game. Also i like to point out, he is the only player giving out posts. To me. So he practically fucked himself trying to look town. Hell the donation got me scared that TT might be mafia a long time ago. Really fucking hope we have a doc tonight. Would be amazing if Vobby is town rb and rb the KP from mafia lol | ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
3 * 1 * 9 =27 13 * 9 * 9 =1053 27/1053 or 1/39 or a 2.56 % that TT is still mafia lol. Like TT is the most unlucky miller if he is one lol. No way in hell that at BEST chance of being town is 2.56% vs 97.44% he isnt getting lynch today. Like anyone who doesn't lynch him is either dumb or mafia | ||
|
Shapelog
United States5184 Posts
| ||
|
GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
| ||
|
GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
- TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective) - TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) - TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate) - TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely not even going to bother) - TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI) Note that these most likely won't add up to 1 since we're ignoring/fubbing a bunch of things. This is incredibly shady math and I hate myself for doing it, but it's better than the one above so I'll make the sacrifice. Let's say there were 2-3 blue roles in the game. Save you, that means there's 1-2 left. We'll add an additional multiplier based on the specific blue role he had to get (1/4 since we'll ignore tracker). We'll also assume that if he is blue he purposefully visited kush. P(TT is blue) = 0.03125 - 0.0625 Now we know there are 3 mafia. Then the chance mafia chose him to use kp is 1/3. (Assuming the mafia wanted to kill kush) P(TT is mafia) = 0.125 With our assumption of 1-2 Blue, and 3 mafia. There are 3-4 greens left. Additionally apply odds of him getting chocolate (we'll say 1/4 again) and of him visiting kush (1/9). P(TT is chocolate) = 0.01042 - 0.01389 We'll say there were 2-3 gifts handed out in general (out of the 13 players). For our purposes, the gifts that apply here are rolecheck, watcher, and visiting the person who gets nightkilled (this one is important). For the first two, odds are 1/9 he would visit kush. For the third, odds of him visiting kush would be 100%. P(TT got a non-gun gift and used it on kush) = 0.02686 - 0.040293 Sum range: 0.19353 - 0.241683 "Actual" probability (just much closer) of each: - TT is blue (Doubt there's two trackers, and it cant be doc or jailer so either rb, or detective) 12.9% - 32.3% - TT is mafia (i.e. he used KP) 51.7% - 64.6% - TT is wanderer (i.e. Chocolate) 4.3% - 7.2% - TT got a gift of gun and used it on kush (NAI, very unlikely he wouldn't shoot vivax. Not even going to bother) ~0% - TT got a non gun gift and used it on kush (NAI) 11.1% - 20.8% Again, these are very rough, but closer. Sleep time. | ||
|
GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
| ||
|
GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
| ||
|
GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
| ||
|
Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
I'm going to keep my vote on Vivax. I don't like the too town to be town argument. But as far as the rest, it will have to wait on his response. | ||
| ||
