On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote: Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to?
I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other?
I'm referring to nearly everyone.
DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people.
The lack of interference makes it feels town v town. When town is going against another town, like say Palmar and I D1, if both participants are town, scum has no motivation to really weigh in or break it up. Instead they can sit around and see who comes off looking worse from the interaction and choose to try and get them lynched.
In this case, you've been suspecting NM for the longest. You cased him and the MD slot before, you still hold suspicion, he's going back at you and responding to you in a way that feels towny to me and trying to explain his thought processes. Scum won't get involved until or unless another town, like myself for instance, weighs in on it and picks a side. Then scum tries to pick that side as well and bury the other. It's not great analysis but I've used it to benefit my reads before, so I know it can be handy when applied hand in hand with logical reads.
On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote: Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to?
I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other?
I'm referring to nearly everyone.
DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people.
The lack of interference makes it feels town v town. When town is going against another town, like say Palmar and I D1, if both participants are town, scum has no motivation to really weigh in or break it up. Instead they can sit around and see who comes off looking worse from the interaction and choose to try and get them lynched.
In this case, you've been suspecting NM for the longest. You cased him and the MD slot before, you still hold suspicion, he's going back at you and responding to you in a way that feels towny to me and trying to explain his thought processes. Scum won't get involved until or unless another town, like myself for instance, weighs in on it and picks a side. Then scum tries to pick that side as well and bury the other. It's not great analysis but I've used it to benefit my reads before, so I know it can be handy when applied hand in hand with logical reads.
Hm....
I don't think I agree you, but I'd prefer not to agree to disagree just yet, because I'm not good at this stuff.
Let's imagine for a moment that you know that I'm town for sure, and you know that NocturneMage is mafia for sure. Why is mafia super interested in burying me and defending NocturneMage right now, when the lynch was on Half the Sky? I would expect mafia to also be interested in keeping their options open, such that if NocturneMage looks good they can bury me tomorrow, when there's a lynch that isn't Half the Sky, or they can bus if it's necessary.
So I'd expect mafia to take stances, but not really push the stances that much. And most everyone has taken stances on the issue, most townreading NocturneMage and scumreading me. So I don't agree with your analysis?
On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote: Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to?
I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other?
I'm referring to nearly everyone.
DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people.
The lack of interference makes it feels town v town. When town is going against another town, like say Palmar and I D1, if both participants are town, scum has no motivation to really weigh in or break it up. Instead they can sit around and see who comes off looking worse from the interaction and choose to try and get them lynched.
In this case, you've been suspecting NM for the longest. You cased him and the MD slot before, you still hold suspicion, he's going back at you and responding to you in a way that feels towny to me and trying to explain his thought processes. Scum won't get involved until or unless another town, like myself for instance, weighs in on it and picks a side. Then scum tries to pick that side as well and bury the other. It's not great analysis but I've used it to benefit my reads before, so I know it can be handy when applied hand in hand with logical reads.
Hm....
I don't think I agree you, but I'd prefer not to agree to disagree just yet, because I'm not good at this stuff.
Let's imagine for a moment that you know that I'm town for sure, and you know that NocturneMage is mafia for sure. Why is mafia super interested in burying me and defending NocturneMage right now, when the lynch was on Half the Sky? I would expect mafia to also be interested in keeping their options open, such that if NocturneMage looks good they can bury me tomorrow, when there's a lynch that isn't Half the Sky, or they can bus if it's necessary.
So I'd expect mafia to take stances, but not really push the stances that much. And most everyone has taken stances on the issue, most townreading NocturneMage and scumreading me. So I don't agree with your analysis?
Heading out for the evening (at least, what's left of it), but to elaborate a bit... (when I say that, I'm guessing everyone groans?)
I don't feel the need to try and get a huge scumread on NocturneMage and convince everyone just yet, because there's enough time to the deadline. I do think I'll try to get a case out before End of Night, but I don't think it's urgent yet. I would prefer to wait for now, to gather information and keep checking things to see if my reads are correct. Note to self, I'm saving something which I think is very interesting but this isn't the time to share it.
I don't see why the mafia team would feel any more urgency than I do to make a move. Assuming that this is town vs mafia (and thus NocturneMage is mafia), mafia is already a bit on top, so the only time they'd need to move would be in reaction to me. And I haven't really done that much, yet.
Finally finished my NocturneMage case. It's after 5 AM and I'm extremely tired. Probably for the best, the case is over the post size limit. I'll probably have to make a new version because the current version sucks. Here's how I started it, hopefully this gives a general idea for why I'm scumreading NocturneMage.
I've been struggling with this ever since I finished the case, but in the end I do think that NocturneMage is mafia. This case is very poorly written and badly formatted (it's after 5 am, I'm really, really tired), but I hope it sort of gets the point across. These are basically the biggest reasons why I'm scumreading NocturneMage.
1. Talking to scumreads like they are town/lecturing scumreads on proper town play (this read can be good when applied correctly, though applying it correctly is harder. It's the amount and circumstances where NocturneMage does this that makes it important) 2. Reads change without explanation and without reason (even some of the more important reads), sort of feels like NocturneMage is finding reasons to be suspicious of people instead of trying to solve the game 3. Mindset changes several times throughout the game, and it seems that the best explanation is that NocturneMage is mafia (the most recent/obvious example of this is that NocturneMage spent a large amount of effort getting people to lynch Half the Sky and seemed really excited about it, but then didn't care when she flipped mafia)
I'm not completely sure about this read. The case is primarily a ton of small reasons instead of a few really good ones, and from past experience I'm not so accurate when I scumread people for a ton of small reasons. But looking at NocturneMage's last town game, it feels like he is mafia here because last game, his play was really good and I don't notice the same things. Note that the small reasons are still mafia indicative reasons, it's just that there are more holes that mean that they could come from town more easily than better reasons.
So. I have time now. Will read EoD and what happened so far and put out some thoughts on that. Hope I'll also get around to look at the reasons/timings of the votes on HtS, to see who the bus drivers where.
I'm not at home and I won't really be doing things until tomorrow. I just want to get it out there that without further reviewing my reads, I would vote for Fidei or trfel tomorrow. I actually think Fidei should be the primary lynch candidate.
On December 07 2015 04:07 Palmar wrote: I'm not at home and I won't really be doing things until tomorrow. I just want to get it out there that without further reviewing my reads, I would vote for Fidei or trfel tomorrow. I actually think Fidei should be the primary lynch candidate.
tldr on trfel: had a super hard time reading him last game (where he was scum!trfel), not going a lot better this game. Will look at geripts pointers on last game and look at his filter this game again. Which will take a while since trfel seems to love huge posts. That being said I think his cases/arguments feel more evolving and less stagnant than the ones scum!trfel did last game.
need to double check his 2. and 3. points on NM, am not a big fan of the 1. point (talking to scum reads like they are town). I think someone scumread town!disformation last game for the same reason, so I do not think this is a good metric for scum hunting. :p
On December 07 2015 05:26 disformation wrote: tldr on trfel: had a super hard time reading him last game (where he was scum!trfel), not going a lot better this game. Will look at geripts pointers on last game and look at his filter this game again. Which will take a while since trfel seems to love huge posts. That being said I think his cases/arguments feel more evolving and less stagnant than the ones scum!trfel did last game.
need to double check his 2. and 3. points on NM, am not a big fan of the 1. point (talking to scum reads like they are town). I think someone scumread town!disformation last game for the same reason, so I do not think this is a good metric for scum hunting. :p
sry for double post, but I did look at trfel's 2nd and 3rd points on NM.
2. Can you show me examples? Because I was reading through his filter and felt like the main points where kinda consistent. Granted in the beginning he was throwing out scum reads like candy, despite not having caught up to the thread, but after that it stabilizes a bit. Yeah, the reads are not explained that much in detail, but he has a few lines for each read and they don't look forced to me or anything. 3. True, from what HtS told me about them meeting IRL I would have expected more gloating. =p Got more examples for that?
I kinda can agree that NM's filter seems to lack a direction outside of the push on HtS, but he is interacting a bunch with a lot of people, so that is a townie brownie. Still think he is more likely to be town.
okay looking at geript's pointers on trfel, from last game.
1) stagnant, not evolving reads as said in the last post, this feels better this game.
2) focus on things that sound good but don't make the cased person mafia need to recheck for this, though has trfel done any consolidated cases recently? Kinda off for Trfel generally?
EPT
