EPTDark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 45
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Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote: hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two. although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? Her role in the lynch was jumping on the shenanigans wagon that Shining initiated. Plenty of people did the same thing and it happened fast. So it can't really be indicative of anything on its own. I think I'm seeing what Kush saw and then some. Gathering my thoughts. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I think that the two games look extremely similar to me, thus I think that it makes Damdred likely mafia. I realize that this is subjective and would like to hear what others have to say. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 03 2015 06:38 Damdred wrote: Here's a quote making Damdred's reasons to scumread LightningStrike a little more clear. In this quote, Damdred seems to describe the biggest part of his LightningStrike scumread being that LightningStrike has zero scum reads, which is exactly what he said not to do in a previous game as town.Honestly Palmar I feel pretty strongly about LS I know its a bit of work, but just do me this favor and look at him its 2 pages of filter if that. He has 0 scum reads, he town reads people for little reason showing no fear of me or you who he generally has a great deal of respect/fear for our scum games. Has absolutely no scum reads, has no positions in the thread. Just see if i'm right/wrong and tell me and then if you think i'm so dead wrong we can talk about maybe lynching kush/onegu | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
2. HtS spreads around quite a bit of suspicion but does not actually push anyone or really take the lead on anything. - She scumleans me, plants her vote, and then does nothing to see me lynched. According to #555 I was actually more of a null read and her suspicion and vote were to get me to post more. There is no follow through here, either pressure wise or lynchwise. - She scumleans kush, points out some stuff that she doesn't like, and then does nothing about it until shenanigans. 3. In spite of all her RL issues she has been plenty active, she is just not really doing anything except engaging Trfel and playing the middle ground. 4. Her play towards LS is highly suspicious. The way I understand it, HtS knows LS better than most. She was reading him critically before any of us and moved him towards null/scum first. She seems unwilling to lynch LS... until Damdred and Palmar take the lead. Then she provides a weak additional reason to not like LS (#627) and switches votes. Does she feel the need to justify her switch beyond just agreeing with Damdred and Palmar? Here is the important part. Right after LS re-enters the thread super emotional, HtS starts positioning for a townflip and distancing herself from responsibility for the lynch. LS is someone she knows better than most. She immediately starts doubting the wagon after he reenters the thread. Her response is, "quick! LS, prove to me you are town!" and "crap, I can't get a good enough sense of his meta in 20 minutes to derail this thing!". With the level of doubt she displayed on the wagon she was helping push she should have been among the first to push onto another candidate. Whether that is me or kush, which would make sense for her, or even just Moosy. Any of those plays makes sense for HtS. Instead, she sits on wagon she doesn't like for 30 minutes and only switches when somebody else will get the blame for starting a counterwagon, incidentally, onto another townie. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On December 03 2015 13:48 Trfel wrote: Does anyone have any thoughts at all about the previous game quote I brought up about Damdred and LightningStrike? I think that the two games look extremely similar to me, thus I think that it makes Damdred likely mafia. I realize that this is subjective and would like to hear what others have to say. I will take a look at it tomorrow, but that kind of read is one of my least favorite. Meta works because it is generalized trends in play. Different circumstances, games, and context often makes similar looking quotes do not mean the same thing for alignment. Even if the games seem similar. Gnight folks. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Half the Sky's reasons for pushing LightningStrike really stuck out to me as well as Damdred's, because they were reasons that don't necessarily apply to LightningStrike. Once I catch up with the thread I'll take a look at Half the Sky's play towards End of Day with regards to LightningStrike (probably tomorrow), but if that's true, then Half the Sky looks really bad. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 03 2015 14:56 DoYouHas wrote: Yeah, I agree. I played in both games and I know the circumstances and context, and I think they're very similar. I'd like to have Damdred explain why they're different, or at least why something changed, and I'd like to make sure he doesn't get out of answering this one.I will take a look at it tomorrow, but that kind of read is one of my least favorite. Meta works because it is generalized trends in play. Different circumstances, games, and context often makes similar looking quotes do not mean the same thing for alignment. Even if the games seem similar. Gnight folks. At least this time, the reason why it is scummy is extremely obvious, even if it isn't the best reason. My other reasons are better but I can't explain them easily  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
First, I didn't read all of Half the Sky's filter, but when I was reading through the thread I didn't think that her play around End of Day was anywhere near as bad as DoYouHas describes. Her read progression on LightningStrike there feels really natural and I actually like it a lot. I'd say that 8 minutes until End of Day is the point where I'd really expect her to start looking for another wagon, and although she doesn't do so, 8 minutes isn't a lot of time and she's sick. I'm guessing that a lot of that time was spent reading the thread trying to figure out what's happening, as the post rate was quite high at the time. I have not looked at the general trends in Half the Sky's filter recently, however when I last looked I didn't see too much wrong that couldn't be easily explained by the cold. And like I said, Half the Sky's read progression on LightningStrike felt towny to me. I still think that DoYouHas is a town lean, though I'm not 100% sure. Vote count analysis also suggests that LightningStrike is town, so I'll stop worrying about that for a while anyway. Haven't checked his filter yet, but The Shining feels like he is town. Fidei86 as well, not entirely sure why about Fidei86. He does a ton of things that to me don't seem interested in actually lynching scum but lynching bad, but he's so open about it that it feels genuine. Everyone else says he's an easy read and he is town, so I'll trust that for now. I'd like to see what Half the Sky says about NocturneMage's posts so far. To me, NocturneMage's posts towards Half the Sky look quite scummy, however having never been married (lol youngest player on TL) I don't think I'm able to judge some of the context behind those statements. Fecalfeast feels towny, and this matches my early Onegu first post read. The Fecalfeast read is much stronger, naturally  The callout of NocturneMage is really good, he's raised a bunch of good points, and he's actually reasonable and willing to work with people.I'm really confident on NocturneMage being mafia, and I think that Damdred is also decently likely to be mafia. Feels like Rels may mafia, though I haven't looked at Rels yet and some of his stuff seems really towny. Though, I just remembered his reaction to my case on MoosyDoosy and then he completely forgot about it. If he was really that excited about it (as he seemed to be), he completely dropped it. I can see it from town, but it's a bit suspicious. Furthermore, there's some really stupid unflipped association, but even when I'm really confident unflipped association is still unflipped association There's a very good chance that at least one mafia got through my search, I have been giving townreads fairly easily. But I need to go to bed, I'll look later. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
Damdy LS Shining Me I don't really trust many other people. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 03 2015 08:22 LightningStrike wrote: Good night Rels. When you come back give thoughts about the game after you went to sleep please? (= | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 03 2015 08:51 Trfel wrote: Does anyone actually enjoy playing with me any more? Because if not, there's really no reason for me to play. I'd rather not waste my time trying to reread all of that End of Day stuff. LOL WTF bro you're like the main moving force this game. Relax, I enjoy playing with you. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 03 2015 09:46 Trfel wrote: Rels: When did you see Damdred's post about the game setup? As in, how long did you spend writing your first post? And, had you read/analyzed the game setup before you read Damdred's post? Off for a while. I don't know. I don't know. Reading and thinking about the setup was the first thing I did when BH posted the day post. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 03 2015 10:57 NocturneMage wrote: yo, at work, on mobile, finishing work late tonight, need to go to bed right after though and I have seminars all damn day tomorrow. I've not read dick all or followed the game for d1 quite yet, but I'm VT and I'm ready to fuck up some dirty dirty scummers. reading from end of cycle, I'm pretty suspicious of trfel again (I say again because he was scum the last game) but that's mainly because of how he played last game. of course he'd push moosydoosy, he's unreadable as fuck as either alignment. same desperation emotions when no one is listening to him. unless he does this as town. cool story bro, try harder because I'm not scum. Wow. I'm not used to that tone coming from NM. Seems way more casual than the usual analytical tone. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote: hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two. although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? She has posted quite a bit already. Do you have a read on her ? | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 03 2015 14:24 Trfel wrote: Here's a quote making Damdred's reasons to scumread LightningStrike a little more clear. In this quote, Damdred seems to describe the biggest part of his LightningStrike scumread being that LightningStrike has zero scum reads, which is exactly what he said not to do in a previous game as town. This is really incriminating. And this is in continuation of Damdred not scumreading people for logical reasons, when he usually is the guy who stops pushes when they are not based on logical reasons. First it was the scumread on you based on something illogcal; now this. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On December 03 2015 15:45 Trfel wrote: I'm really confident on NocturneMage being mafia, and I think that Damdred is also decently likely to be mafia. Feels like Rels may mafia, though I haven't looked at Rels yet and some of his stuff seems really towny. Though, I just remembered his reaction to my case on MoosyDoosy and then he completely forgot about it. If he was really that excited about it (as he seemed to be), he completely dropped it. I can see it from town, but it's a bit suspicious. Furthermore, there's some really stupid unflipped association, but even when I'm really confident unflipped association is still unflipped association True. I didn't post it, but I thought it was actually NAI due to this game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/494452-student-mafia-xv In that game, Moosy just stopped doing anything in D2 and let town lynch him, even taunting us in the process. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
1. Agreeing to a setup idea that is benefit to scum; without being the first to propose it Talking about this post: On December 01 2015 08:27 Damdred wrote: Firstly for the roles, nobody should talk about this besides an opinion going forward, if you are a named towny you should claim asap, it narrows down the pool that we lynch from and also gives us more to work with. however if you are the Vet do not claim unless absolutely necessary. If you are shot claim if you aren't shut the hell up. After you use your power claim straight away your findings if you are one shot obviously do not pussy foot away and give mafia the ability to cause town to second guess you. As such thank you for your time in reading this. On December 01 2015 08:32 DoYouHas wrote: I second the immediate claim by a boxer if we have one. boxer claiming is (was =X ) bad for town 50% of the time, so this post pushes a scum advantage. Furthermore, he's agreeing with Damdred on that, not taking responsability for the idea. 2. His Trfel's read makes no sense Already explained here: On December 01 2015 22:22 Rels wrote: I don't like that progression from DoYouHas. "Trfel you might be scum." 2 posts later: Damdred: "Trfel is most likely town." 1 post later: "Trfel you're crazy." So Trfel is considered town here. It doesn't add up. ##Vote DoYouHas 3. A total apathy towards the lynch Here are the two posts DYH made after coming back to EOD: On December 03 2015 07:01 DoYouHas wrote: Catching up now. I can't see any scum motivation behind Trfel's hard defending of me. It doesn't even look like positioning for my flip is even really a possibility here. I was going after him, voted him, thread sentiment is against me. I'm an easy EASY person for scum trfel to keep the heat on. That he ran the other direction when there is no reason to as mafia is major town points in my book. Unvoting. On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote: Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads. ##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote: What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is. DYH just didn't care about the lynch. The third post was only made after I tried to get people to vote him. Furthermore, disfo bought a really good point about sheeping his "townreads": On December 03 2015 08:15 disformation wrote: Wanted to switch to DYH, but decided to go into his filter and make a post... I kinda want to restate that post, because I think he would be a good lynch so: His reason for voting LS: Last mention of me in his filter: So I am kinda asking myself where he got that magical TR on me from... Taking a break now. Conclusion If we have a vig, you know who to shoot. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
I don't have a strong scumread on Palmar. There is no slip to be found in his filter. But I know Palmar is a strong scum player, so it's super unlikely to find a slip in there. Here is why I'm suspicious of him: 1. His reads followed the thread sentiment D1 D1, Palmar started by tunneling Shining on something true but small. This is NAI. But after that, Palmar's posts about people were boring. Just boring. Examples: On December 02 2015 05:04 Palmar wrote: So I misread DYH and his post is not as atrocious as I thought it was while phonereading today. Still bad, still a good default lynch. I'm not actually putting a ton of effort into this game but I don't want to lynch into this list: Trfel, Fidei, HTS, disformation. Maybe Rels belongs there too. This is in no way a "these people are town" list, just a "I have seen something that makes me not want to lynch them right now". Damdred is being a bit weird but I'm not gonna call him mafia yet. Also, Kush and Onegu are useless baddies who will be useless throughout the game. Flipping a coin and lynching one of them is a good play OK to lynch the guy with the most votes ATM. All active players are given a pass for today. OK to lynch on of the two uesless. On December 02 2015 06:11 Palmar wrote: This is a shitty read, but it might actually be brilliant. Shining said he'd leave yesterday when arguing with me, yet he kept coming back to the thread. If he is mafia he has already realized I'm an obnoxious bastard who pushes shit without mercy. He created an excuse for himself to leave the thread and then didn't use it. That drive to make me understand that I'm being dumb as shit is actually kinda townie. When I think about it I definitely don't want to lynch Shining today. On December 02 2015 06:20 Palmar wrote: Does anyone know how to make moosy not be terrible? On December 03 2015 01:13 Palmar wrote: Also, I'm warming up to the idea of lynching Fidei, he kinda deserves it. On December 03 2015 04:09 Palmar wrote: I like how you didn't even finish your sentence on me. Nevertheless, I'm going to vote moosy. Trfel's idea prompted me to read his filter. His filter is absolute trash. On December 03 2015 04:10 Palmar wrote: It's seriously demotivating to have so many deadweight players who don't play to win this game (kush, moosy, onegu). On December 03 2015 04:13 Palmar wrote: Also the reason I might lynch you james is because you sound like a fucking machine all the time. On December 03 2015 04:15 Palmar wrote: Kush didn't do anything, he just said a bunch of words that might as well have been generated in a random read generator. All of this is boring with minimal scumhunt. And this culminates in ... 2. Palmar was apathetic towards the lynch; when he is proud of his D1 capacities Palmar is proud of his D1 reads: On December 01 2015 09:53 Palmar wrote: Don't lie to town though, talking to me is a great way to getting us somewhere, I am actually pretty reasonable and I take pride in my day 1 play, so if you actually do the thing where you don't look like mafia I'm not going to want to kill you. However at the moment you have such massive holes in your story that I can't ignore it. But after stopping his Shining push, his reads were boring. At EOD, he was super apathetic and sheeped Trfel into Moosy, then Damdred into LS, then followed the thread sentiment to kush: On December 03 2015 04:09 Palmar wrote: I like how you didn't even finish your sentence on me. Nevertheless, I'm going to vote moosy. Trfel's idea prompted me to read his filter. His filter is absolute trash. On December 03 2015 07:51 Palmar wrote: I know this?? That's exactly why, I know that currently I don't have a lot of good ideas, and damdred's idea looks like a decent one so I'm just gonna roll with that. He also left the thread 1 hour before deadline to come back 10 minutes for it for no good reason, when it always is the crucial moment to decide a good lynch: On December 03 2015 07:07 Palmar wrote: I'm going to watch tv for half an hour or so. I think I'm just gonna roll with Damdred. I have no good reason to call LS town so fuck it. Conclusion Good cop check / vig shot. | ||
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