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phone post: need to be on a cp to write up a decent case of some sort and properly look at filters
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phone post: 15:39 here. should be back at home in about 2 hours.
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phone post: ah yes said afternoon yesterday but i was only able to get out of bed at 1300 and have a few rl things to take vare of b4 mafia
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still phone: noose is a good pointer. i want to strangle my renter/landlord.
my sleep schedule is super messed up and i end up sleeping for 10-13 hours quite often cause i cant get out of bed.
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In case you are wondering: am at home, writing on a post.
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Day 1
Kushm4sta (7): Fidei86, Damdred, LS, Shining, Rels, HTS, Palm LightningStrike (4): disformation, kushm4sta, DoYouHas, Trfel Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy, Onegu
Day 2
Half the Sky (9): NocturneMage, DoYouHas, Fecalfeast, Rels, Trfel, Fidei86, Palmar, The Shining, LightningStrike DoYouHas (1): disformation NocturneMage (1): Half the Sky
Day 3
Fecalfeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformation Trfel (3): NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, Rels LightningStrike (1): Fidei86 Fidei86 (1): LightningStrike Disinformation (1): DoYouHas
Day 4
Rels (3): DoYouHas, NocturneMage, The Shining DoYouHas (2): disformation, LightningStrike NocturneMage (2): Fidei86, Rels
Recap of vote reasoning: The Shining on kush:
On December 03 2015 07:52 The Shining wrote: Yeah I don't really like the way kush and DYH got onto the LS wagon. And what disfo just said about everyone voting LS. It took off really quickly. Damdred hasn't come back either and LS is pretty much his wagon.
Ugh.
On December 03 2015 07:57 The Shining wrote: Fuck it. I'm down. Shenanny onto kush. Let's do it.
LS voted kush for survival. NAI.
DoYouHas on LS:
On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote: Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS
I already explained my reasoning for my LS vote, find it somewhere in my filter. TS vote seems town, but can come from mafia if both wagons are town. LS NAI. Mentioned that I am not fond of DYH reason like 3 billion times by now.
TS on HtS:
On December 06 2015 05:36 The Shining wrote: Hi. I'm playing catch up. I clicked HtS filter though and the lack of follow-ups on anything since this wagon started feels like she's the right vote, along with NMs case and the point I put out against her. It's sensible she's just not trying to defend herself for fear of giving away her scumteam. Going to vote her then continue reading. I am not sure what point he put out against her. Can someone point that out to me? Because this might be an attempt to veil he is only voting her cause NM.
LS on HtS:
On December 06 2015 03:17 LightningStrike wrote:I just got home: Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 02:36 NocturneMage wrote:On December 06 2015 01:47 LightningStrike wrote:On December 06 2015 01:44 NocturneMage wrote: LS, if someone's end of cycle activity was questionable you absolutely should have questioned them on it. that is a pretty critical thing to start off on. ignoring hts or ANYONE on that criteria doesn't make you look good at all. She haven't really been around this Day Phase so ofc I can't.Plus I think she was gone shortly after too as I was too going somewhere so :\ If she doesn't respond, she doesn't respond. The fact is, you didn't question her at all. (if you did, where is the post?) I mean even Trfel said he had whatever questions for her and he laid them out. I was waiting for HTS to show up again honestly but I guess this will have to do for her when she feels better. HTS if you see this and can respond: What was going on in your mind during EoD because I know it was chaotic esp for me because I really thought I was going to get lynched there? After basically null reading her all day. Waits until very late to vote.
NM on HtS: Comes in saying she is probably mafia. Talks to her like she might be either alignment. Comes back to vote her. Says he wants to write a case on HtS without using meta, never does.
DYH on HtS: Has the first case on her N1. Only does vote her after NM does so.
disformation on DYH: was discussed already. If you still have questions, ask while I am still around.
The Shining on FF: solid progression here, nothing to complain about imo.
NocturneMage on Trfel: solid progression here, nothing to complain about imo.
DYH on me:
On December 09 2015 07:55 DoYouHas wrote: Screw it, I'm going to trust my initial instinct.
##Vote: Disformation
Shining, get on this wagon. "Hey look let me throw away my vote and ask ppl currently voting my scumpartner to switch to that!"
LS on Fide86: Well, he posted his case on Fidei86. Still threw his vote away.
disformation on FF: was already discussed.
DoYouHas on Rels:
On December 11 2015 13:57 DoYouHas wrote: Look at night kills:
Damdred- Read as townie by majority of players, killed when he has few scumreads or pushes going. Palmar- Difficult lynch, killed before he starts really solving the game Trfel- Essentially confirmed town, no reads going into the day
The common thread for every kill has been someone who would be difficult to lynch but could also come at the game with a new perspective. This implies that scum is less threatened by the current sentiment of the thread and more worried about an unknown element coming in and screwing things up.
The person that fits this mentality the best atm is Rels. There is the added benefit that Trfel was also one of the most likely among us to suspect and push Rels.
It is a bit WIFOM, but adding the fact that disfo hammered ff to the fact that Shining is still with us, my money is on Rels flipping scum over disfo.
##Vote: Rels "Hey I found some wifom on one of the guys trying to lynch me all game."
NM on Rels:
On December 12 2015 07:40 NocturneMage wrote: and trying to pick back up on Rels' filter as well.
I'm honestly grappling here. There is nothing right now that is screaming mafia about DYH. I really feel the case being made against him is 50/50 at best. I tried lining all shit up, I tried isolating his case against hts, like I said time and again there's an equal possibility he could have pushed the Dani lynch on his own. there are certain elements of her play that could have allowed him to do this.
my other hesistancy is that the points being made is that ff is the one making the points and dyh never got to him for all I could tell. like I thought and thought, I mean I could honestly see this go either way. ff can spout off whatever.
scum have a general generic tendency to fall off but this, dyh just seems like someone who is damned busy to play.
the only thing that jumps at me is voting disformation in the event that disformation is town but that's unflipped association.
On December 12 2015 07:55 NocturneMage wrote: I'm going to go ahead and give final reads then if I'm getting lynched.
I am thinking Shining is town. My gut is saying that DYH is town. I broke the guy's filter sideways. Rels' case against him is 50/50 at best.
disformation is probably playing suboptimal as fuck but my caution on him is that I can't follow his train of thought easily.
Rels is scaring me. I don't understand this overexplanation shit, and I'm starting to fear the push on what I think is a 50/50 case.
And I am agreed with Fidei.....I fucking hate LS's play.
If you sleep on him and if LS is mafia I am going to lose my fucking shit in the postgame.
"That guy is totally 50/50. let us lynch him!"
The Shining on Rels:
On December 12 2015 06:16 The Shining wrote: Actually Rels tried to get people onto Trfel at :59 and voted him after FF got the lead. With a hasty rushed "Let's go Trfel"
After saying let's lynch DYH, he showed up 30 mins before deadline. He also said Trfel, FF and I all did the same thing. But he chose Trfel to push.
After being willing to sheep me on Disfo today but now he's back to sheeping Disfo on DYH.
Says voting FF is a possibility but pure yolo. But dude voted Trfel.
He also made a post before that one saying FF could be scum and if that's the case, likely partner is DYH. TMI? This was before FF was the lynch. But he voted Trfel over FF, while thinking FF could be scum. If FF could be scum, why did he vote Trfel? And why call it a yolo move if he thought he could be scum?
Trfel also voted Rels before he went on FF. Trfel is dead now. And I think I'm seeing what Trfel saw in Rels filter. I'm pretty sure I'm voting Rels. Fair enough.
So even if you don't believe DYH bussed HtS like this. Look at his other votes.
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Oh forgot to look at LS on DYH day 4. one second.
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Ah b4 that: Remember FF <> DYH interactions? No? Have at thee:
On December 10 2015 03:14 disformation wrote:So back to work: FF has a 5 page filter and the last page of that is kinda useless imo. Trying to look at his interactions and sfuff: A study of the social behaviour and interactions of a wild FecalfeastDerived from this studies I hope to establish how a wild Fecalfeast goes about in selecting his mating partners, by observing behaviour patterns. Upon arriving at the scene FF can be seen to be very engaging and conversing with Trfel, LightningStrike and Damdred. He seems especially interested in Trfel's filter and starts to dig around in that, with his sharp claws (i hope sharp claws are metal enough). Note that he randomly soft defends me on some very minor point here: Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 09:16 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 01 2015 16:42 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2015 08:49 disformation wrote:On December 01 2015 08:44 Trfel wrote: Hm, LightningStrike hasn't posted at all yet. Very suspicious, I would have expected him to be really excited for this game since he hasn't played in a while.
Disformation, why are you only bringing up Damdred's post now, and not right when he posted it? Tired as hell.  When I first read it I was like kinda amused by the hero thing, triggering my immediate reaction (the first post). Then I read it again and thought that it was a kinda unusual thing for Damdred to post and remembered that I was criticized for a very similar thing (over constructed first post shortly after the start of the game) in my first game here. So I asked him the same question I was asked. The advise itself is probably valid though.  Wait a second, disformation... You've only rolled town on TL, correct? So if you were town and someone questioned you for a "constructed" post, then why would you ask someone else about this? What did you hope to get out of your question? Based on Damdred's answers, do you have a conclusion now? Not a bad point on disform at face value but if disform wasn't sure of his play before and has since learned that constructed posts are scummy, what's the problem calling out something he has learned to be generally scummy? But does he do so because he already is my partner, wishes to buddy me or simply wants something minor to talk about? Evidence not conclusive at this point.
Notice how he approaches Trfel, when Trfel seems to be kinda frustrated and "out of it". Like our Fecalfeast here is trying to say "Everything is alright, I'm going to read your posts and we are going to be best buddies forever!".
After throwing out some suspicions in the direction of NM he then starts with his fallout comments and attempts to withdraw himself from the rest of the pack.
After that he shifts his suspicions towards Fidei86 and Trfel, away from NM. Does push a bit on Fidei, but only very softly.
Finally mentions DYH: Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote: I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote: Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote: Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote: What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote: hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 10:55 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 05 2015 10:29 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote: I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote: Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote: Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote: What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote: hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? I'm clearly not playing this game right because I actually really, really like what disformation says here. But I didn't care that much when he first said it  Basically, DoYouHas (in the middle of Day 1 ish) stated that he was going to take a look at the people in the "middle" (because he felt that the most active/vocal people were town). Fair enough. He looked at Fidei86, Half the Sky, LightningStrike, and disformation, and didn't get anything out of it. I'm not sure if this means he didn't get any scumreads out of this or if he didn't get any reads at all from this, if I can catch DoYouHas sometime I'd like to ask this. From this, two things happened. First, he came up with a townread on disformation (because he was sheeping the wagon of his townreads, and mentioned disformation). Second, he got a scumread and case on Half the Sky Night 1, despite not getting much scummy (presumably) from her filter earlier. Hm, I guess this makes sense. Maybe I need to look more closely but let's assume there's no shenanigans tomorrow and HTS flips red. What does that make you think of DYH? But shifts away from DYH fast back onto NM: Show nested quote +On December 05 2015 11:07 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 05 2015 11:01 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:55 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 05 2015 10:29 Trfel wrote:On December 05 2015 10:06 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 04 2015 10:51 disformation wrote:Too make my argument a bit more readable: - scum is hiding in the middleground
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 08:30 DoYouHas wrote:I don't like a lot about Trfel right now. I don't like that he made a mountain out of a molehill with Damdred and did a snap OMGUS. I don't like how he is sliding between sheeping Palmar and Rels. I don't like how he is complaining that Damdred won't work with him, which should not matter unless his read did a 180 and he is confident Damdred is town, and I really don't like this: Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote: I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. A strong scumread on me with no explanation, even when pressed. Maybe he just doesn't have a good explanation at this point. Side note, he complains that Damdred won't work with him but refuses to work with Damdred when he gets pressed on his reasoning for attacking me. The conciliatory nature of some of Trfels posts gave me pause since he was so bullheaded with his scumgame last time but I would definitely put him top of my list at the moment. I get the town feels from a lot of the movers and shakers this game which makes me think that scum are hiding in the middle ground, so that is where I'm going to look next. P.S. I wasn't trying excuse a lack of posting. I was pointing out that there are large stretches of time where I cannot post. People seemed to be jumping on the wagon simply because I was afk.
- Was reading the middleground ppl (Fid,HtS,LS,disfo), but haven't got anything out of it
+ Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote: Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
- "Got no scumreads" (really?) "so i am sheeping town" "btw disfo totally town now"
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote: Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote: What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
Wat? I have pointed this problem out, Rels has pointed this out, but nothing happens. can you flesh out why you think this progression is scummy any further? I'm looking at this filter and while it's a little short on portion size it's looking pretty well explained. Not to mention the fact that if HTS flips red here the fact remains that he brought her up as a potential target before NM + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote: hts is a sleazeball as mafia, I love her to death, but I'll pretty much know immediately if she's mafia because I obviously know her in real life and if she's out of bounds with her personality, she is almost certainly mafia. obviously if I think she's mafia, I will case her in a way that doesn't require you to know her in real life. unless her dota friends want to argue they have some feels on her from external behaviour. rels, fidei? I'm looking at you two.
although seeing doyouhas' post, if hts got someone lynched who was scumreading her, that is a major red flag in my book. that is routine mafia play for her. dani as mafia will absolutely push the lynches of the people who want her dead. so dyh, what was her role in the lynch? I'm clearly not playing this game right because I actually really, really like what disformation says here. But I didn't care that much when he first said it  Basically, DoYouHas (in the middle of Day 1 ish) stated that he was going to take a look at the people in the "middle" (because he felt that the most active/vocal people were town). Fair enough. He looked at Fidei86, Half the Sky, LightningStrike, and disformation, and didn't get anything out of it. I'm not sure if this means he didn't get any scumreads out of this or if he didn't get any reads at all from this, if I can catch DoYouHas sometime I'd like to ask this. From this, two things happened. First, he came up with a townread on disformation (because he was sheeping the wagon of his townreads, and mentioned disformation). Second, he got a scumread and case on Half the Sky Night 1, despite not getting much scummy (presumably) from her filter earlier. Hm, I guess this makes sense. Maybe I need to look more closely but let's assume there's no shenanigans tomorrow and HTS flips red. What does that make you think of DYH? I'm fairly suspicious of DoYouHas. I'm not really sure what implications a Half the Sky scum flip would have on DoYouHas. Do you have any thoughts about NocturneMage or anyone else that you want to talk about? DYH brought up HTS as possibler scum before NM and NM referenced DYH in his post calling HTS scummy. I think NM's entrance set a bit of a scummy tone initially but his recent postings have been pointed and he seems to be following a logical thought progression. He's obviously very confident in his HTS read which is why I'm sheeped all over that. I think NM is towny though I'm pretty allergic to deep reading right now. also he has 5 pages after replacing in night 1, is NM known to be a high effort scum?
Later he sheeps NM... (wasn't that a scum lean just now? Show nested quote +On December 08 2015 12:29 Fecalfeast wrote: shamelessly sheeping NM while i get my new SSD all up and running
##vote trfel
consider me a gullible extra vote bot for now i guess
So unlikely partners: Trfel - very waffly about that one. NM - feels more like he was trying to find reasons to scum read him... until suddenly sheeping him. The Shining - agrees with a list post of The Shining and laters gives him an easy town read. So possible partners: Me - Overall awkward interactions and that one strange thing where he soft defended me. Rels - Basically only two very very short mentions of him in his filter and no interactions. DYH - Only talks about him when pressed multiple times, seems to consider him for a moment, then deflects off onto NM. No interactions.
On December 10 2015 03:31 disformation wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2015 03:26 NocturneMage wrote: disformation, can you analyse the interactions from both sides? You suspect Rels and DYH, so now do it from those two players sides. Sure thing. Will be doing FF really quick. All of DYH's mentions/interactions with FF in the following spoiler. As a bonus I threw all mentions/interactions with Onegu in it, too. So this is another huge one! open with care! + Show Spoiler +On December 04 2015 09:13 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:07 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote: I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for? Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing. @Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less. It could be as simple as Damdred is a solid town player, and was read as town by the majority of the players. He clearly had influence as evidenced by the LS wagon. That is enough to make him a good kill. His reads are worth more now that we know for sure he was town, and should be considered carefully, but there is plenty to make him a good nightkill beyond his reads. (Sorry, I know you wanted FF to answer) On December 06 2015 07:04 DoYouHas wrote: My PoE right now looks like this:
Town: Rels, Shining, LS(I am still on board with the EoD VT claim) Townlean: Disfo, Palmar, Fid (need to look into him more) Unfiltered: NM, FF Suspicious but incomplete: Trfel Scum: HTS
"FF? Who? Nah, didn't even look at him."
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Like of course would DYH want Rels gone. Rels and I are the only ones pushing him and I am just not good enough to get him lynched alone. -.-
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On December 15 2015 03:42 disformation wrote: Like of course would DYH want Rels gone. Rels and I are the only ones pushing him and I am just not good enough to get him lynched alone. -.-
And wtf is it with him randomly voting me and trying to get the shining off FF the day before?
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On December 15 2015 03:48 NocturneMage wrote: like you are just summarising.
What about that segment makes DYH scummy.
And the day 3 votes. What is DYH's motive to vote off the main wagons and why does it make him more scummy than you who needed the cred?
was there a disconnect with his reads? Like you really are not explaining well.
His read on me do 180° flips all the game. Like have you read Rels/mine cases on him even once?
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And he does not only vote off wagon, he tries to get ppl to shennany onto me, one of the two ppl pushing him all game and tries to get ppl off his partner anyway. He doesn't need to bus FF, cause he already has got tons of cred from the hts lynch.
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And who does vote D4, of a wifom post? Rels. The other guy pushing him all game.
He wants to clearly get rid of us, so nobody pushes him lylo/mylo/whateverlo.
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To recap DYH read progression on me:
On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote: Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
On December 03 2015 07:56 DoYouHas wrote: What do you want from me Rels? I don't have good scumreads after dropping trfel. I sheep the wagon of 3 of my townreads in Damdred, disfo, and Palmar. It is what it is.
On December 06 2015 07:04 DoYouHas wrote: My PoE right now looks like this:
Town: Rels, Shining, LS(I am still on board with the EoD VT claim) Townlean: Disfo, Palmar, Fid (need to look into him more) Unfiltered: NM, FF Suspicious but incomplete: Trfel Scum: HTS
On December 07 2015 08:00 DoYouHas wrote: Looking at HtS's filter I have a couple of thoughts.
1. I am very wrong about Trfel, he is town. 2. Disfo may not be the townie that I thought he was. There are a few things that look off to me between him and HtS. 3. The NM bus theory of Trfel may not be far-fetched. HtS was soft defending moosy.
Will elaborate assuming I live. Pretty good bet.
On December 07 2015 09:20 DoYouHas wrote:So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make. Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler +On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote:Hey everyone. A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed - Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough. Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why: Show nested quote +Second, why would does this make me mafia in any way? Like, why does the fact that LightningStrike posted that he wouldn't be here at the start of the game have any bearing on my alignment? When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up. Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously. disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game. So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation. Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence. Moving to Palmar/Shining... 1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler +On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote: I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads.
Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere.
Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case. 2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo 3. Trfel, Disfo, LS Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy) HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote:I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible. Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 03:13 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:06 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 03:04 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:01 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 02:58 Trfel wrote:On December 02 2015 23:07 Half the Sky wrote: Alright, I just woke up, and I am not feeling any better. I'm headed to a doctor's appointment in an hour, but I am hoping to get back in thread barring anything serious.
I fully realise I have a shittonne to catch up on - if anyone has any questions for me, or anything specific they want me to weigh on, please prompt me and I'll do so when I return. First of all, really sorry that you aren't feeling well. Hope you can recover soon. Why did you vote for DoYouHas instead of kushm4sta? Why didn't you include LightningStrike in the lynch list? Now that he's (at least mostly, I think?) answered your questions, what do you think about him? Why did your read on me (Trfel) change? read her filter if you want to see her progression on me + Show Spoiler + And where did you get that conclusion from? On December 02 2015 04:38 Half the Sky wrote:On December 02 2015 04:24 LightningStrike wrote:Okay I here now and Tfrel I did answer HTS just not directly quoted. On December 02 2015 04:15 Half the Sky wrote: Looking at 346/349 -
LS, I'm not referring to meta. Let's make sure I'm not misunderstanding you here.
I'm not talking about Palmar's tone in general. I'm talking about his case. If you read the context differently, then tell me how you interpreted that.
You are saying that he's town because his tone is serious and from 349 it's based on meta. Okay fine, but regardless of meta, why would Palmar's case NOT be serious? What I'm trying to say here is that you are townreading him for a poor reason. I didn't say it wasn't serious? Anyways the way he argued Shining like I said had a serious tone plus like said he did a very similar thing to me in Metal Mini when I was fighting him and felt frustrated with him. It took me a bit of arguing to get him to townread me in that game because I was still a newbie lol.... So it a little both but more towards personal experience with him. Argh, no. I am saying that you said his tone is serious. In any case, you want to say you are giving a personal read towards him. Alright, I still think this is a bad read because like I said before Palmar really can't be done off one read, but now that I've fleshed it out I don't think you are mafia for this. Still need to read the rest of your filter in conjunction with Trfel/Damdred when I return though. Yeah.... "I don't think you are mafia for this" means that Half the Sky is not scum reading you for one specific thing in your filter. As in, she could be scum reading you for the entire rest of your filter. And that's not a townread on that one thing either. Does anyone know if LightningStrike is generally this self-conscious as town with regards to other people's townreads on him? To make a big jump like this and try to assume everything is a townread? Because this is making me doubt my earlier town lean on him. The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred. DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush. Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from. Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread: Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will. Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter. Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it) Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in... 4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo - Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia. However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting. - I think the cross between these two methods is a pretty good reason to scumread Disfo. Please look into it yourselves. ##Vote: Disformation
On December 08 2015 14:17 DoYouHas wrote: Soooooo, my reason for townreading Trfel apparently is bad. It is association based on his interactions with HtS. I've been looking at his last scum game. If I was playing, I would never have picked up on anything odd between him and Breshke. So confused...
This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true. ##Unvote
My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum.
On December 09 2015 07:55 DoYouHas wrote: Screw it, I'm going to trust my initial instinct.
##Vote: Disformation
Shining, get on this wagon.
On December 10 2015 13:18 DoYouHas wrote: It has been a long ass day. I'm going to come back and actually read this tomorrow with non-exhausted eyes.
##Vote: Disfo
See you all tomorrow.
(after that he voted Rels over me...)
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On December 15 2015 03:58 NocturneMage wrote: Rels case for the 1000th time was 50/50 case at best. I had been telling Rels that all game.
It wasn't a scummy case (now we know obviously) but I isolated independent reasoning for his case on Dani and you cannot positively exclude the possibility that he could have come up with the case on HTS from town. You also cannot say its probable for him to bus the roleblocker over what you did (vanilla for equiv) and lining that up with the stances you took on Dani that's where the problem comes in.
Even if you take out the busser theory things, the case should have enough good points to make you see that he is scum.
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On December 15 2015 03:58 NocturneMage wrote: Rels case for the 1000th time was 50/50 case at best. I had been telling Rels that all game.
It wasn't a scummy case (now we know obviously) but I isolated independent reasoning for his case on Dani and you cannot positively exclude the possibility that he could have come up with the case on HTS from town. You also cannot say its probable for him to bus the roleblocker over what you did (vanilla for equiv) and lining that up with the stances you took on Dani that's where the problem comes in.
Only part 2 of my case on DYH is the HtS bus thing. All the other things point to him as being scum for other reason. My conclusion: You didn't even read it.
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On December 15 2015 04:10 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2015 03:37 disformation wrote:Day 1 Kushm4sta (7): Fidei86, Damdred, LS, Shining, Rels, HTS, PalmLightningStrike (4): disformation, kushm4sta, DoYouHas, TrfelNot Voting (2): MoosyDoosy, OneguDay 2 Half the Sky (9): NocturneMage, DoYouHas, Fecalfeast, Rels, Trfel, Fidei86, Palmar, The Shining, LightningStrike DoYouHas (1): disformationNocturneMage (1): Half the SkyDay 3 Fecalfeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformationTrfel (3): NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, RelsLightningStrike (1): Fidei86Fidei86 (1): LightningStrike Disinformation (1): DoYouHas Day 4 Rels (3): DoYouHas, NocturneMage, The Shining DoYouHas (2): disformation, LightningStrike NocturneMage (2): Fidei86, Rels
Recap of vote reasoning: The Shining on kush: On December 03 2015 07:52 The Shining wrote: Yeah I don't really like the way kush and DYH got onto the LS wagon. And what disfo just said about everyone voting LS. It took off really quickly. Damdred hasn't come back either and LS is pretty much his wagon.
Ugh. On December 03 2015 07:57 The Shining wrote: Fuck it. I'm down. Shenanny onto kush. Let's do it. LS voted kush for survival. NAI. DoYouHas on LS: On December 03 2015 07:36 DoYouHas wrote: Welp, if you don't have good scumreads, sheep the wagon of your townreads.
##Vote: LS I already explained my reasoning for my LS vote, find it somewhere in my filter. TS vote seems town, but can come from mafia if both wagons are town. LS NAI. Mentioned that I am not fond of DYH reason like 3 billion times by now.
TS on HtS: On December 06 2015 05:36 The Shining wrote: Hi. I'm playing catch up. I clicked HtS filter though and the lack of follow-ups on anything since this wagon started feels like she's the right vote, along with NMs case and the point I put out against her. It's sensible she's just not trying to defend herself for fear of giving away her scumteam. Going to vote her then continue reading. I am not sure what point he put out against her. Can someone point that out to me? Because this might be an attempt to veil he is only voting her cause NM. LS on HtS: On December 06 2015 03:17 LightningStrike wrote:I just got home: On December 06 2015 02:36 NocturneMage wrote:On December 06 2015 01:47 LightningStrike wrote:On December 06 2015 01:44 NocturneMage wrote: LS, if someone's end of cycle activity was questionable you absolutely should have questioned them on it. that is a pretty critical thing to start off on. ignoring hts or ANYONE on that criteria doesn't make you look good at all. She haven't really been around this Day Phase so ofc I can't.Plus I think she was gone shortly after too as I was too going somewhere so :\ If she doesn't respond, she doesn't respond. The fact is, you didn't question her at all. (if you did, where is the post?) I mean even Trfel said he had whatever questions for her and he laid them out. I was waiting for HTS to show up again honestly but I guess this will have to do for her when she feels better. HTS if you see this and can respond: What was going on in your mind during EoD because I know it was chaotic esp for me because I really thought I was going to get lynched there? After basically null reading her all day. Waits until very late to vote. NM on HtS: Comes in saying she is probably mafia. Talks to her like she might be either alignment. Comes back to vote her. Says he wants to write a case on HtS without using meta, never does. DYH on HtS: Has the first case on her N1. Only does vote her after NM does so. disformation on DYH: was discussed already. If you still have questions, ask while I am still around.
The Shining on FF: solid progression here, nothing to complain about imo. NocturneMage on Trfel: solid progression here, nothing to complain about imo. DYH on me: On December 09 2015 07:55 DoYouHas wrote: Screw it, I'm going to trust my initial instinct.
##Vote: Disformation
Shining, get on this wagon. "Hey look let me throw away my vote and ask ppl currently voting my scumpartner to switch to that!" LS on Fide86: Well, he posted his case on Fidei86. Still threw his vote away. disformation on FF: was already discussed.
DoYouHas on Rels: On December 11 2015 13:57 DoYouHas wrote: Look at night kills:
Damdred- Read as townie by majority of players, killed when he has few scumreads or pushes going. Palmar- Difficult lynch, killed before he starts really solving the game Trfel- Essentially confirmed town, no reads going into the day
The common thread for every kill has been someone who would be difficult to lynch but could also come at the game with a new perspective. This implies that scum is less threatened by the current sentiment of the thread and more worried about an unknown element coming in and screwing things up.
The person that fits this mentality the best atm is Rels. There is the added benefit that Trfel was also one of the most likely among us to suspect and push Rels.
It is a bit WIFOM, but adding the fact that disfo hammered ff to the fact that Shining is still with us, my money is on Rels flipping scum over disfo.
##Vote: Rels "Hey I found some wifom on one of the guys trying to lynch me all game." NM on Rels: On December 12 2015 07:40 NocturneMage wrote: and trying to pick back up on Rels' filter as well.
I'm honestly grappling here. There is nothing right now that is screaming mafia about DYH. I really feel the case being made against him is 50/50 at best. I tried lining all shit up, I tried isolating his case against hts, like I said time and again there's an equal possibility he could have pushed the Dani lynch on his own. there are certain elements of her play that could have allowed him to do this.
my other hesistancy is that the points being made is that ff is the one making the points and dyh never got to him for all I could tell. like I thought and thought, I mean I could honestly see this go either way. ff can spout off whatever.
scum have a general generic tendency to fall off but this, dyh just seems like someone who is damned busy to play.
the only thing that jumps at me is voting disformation in the event that disformation is town but that's unflipped association. On December 12 2015 07:55 NocturneMage wrote: I'm going to go ahead and give final reads then if I'm getting lynched.
I am thinking Shining is town. My gut is saying that DYH is town. I broke the guy's filter sideways. Rels' case against him is 50/50 at best.
disformation is probably playing suboptimal as fuck but my caution on him is that I can't follow his train of thought easily.
Rels is scaring me. I don't understand this overexplanation shit, and I'm starting to fear the push on what I think is a 50/50 case.
And I am agreed with Fidei.....I fucking hate LS's play.
If you sleep on him and if LS is mafia I am going to lose my fucking shit in the postgame.
"That guy is totally 50/50. let us lynch him!" The Shining on Rels: On December 12 2015 06:16 The Shining wrote: Actually Rels tried to get people onto Trfel at :59 and voted him after FF got the lead. With a hasty rushed "Let's go Trfel"
After saying let's lynch DYH, he showed up 30 mins before deadline. He also said Trfel, FF and I all did the same thing. But he chose Trfel to push.
After being willing to sheep me on Disfo today but now he's back to sheeping Disfo on DYH.
Says voting FF is a possibility but pure yolo. But dude voted Trfel.
He also made a post before that one saying FF could be scum and if that's the case, likely partner is DYH. TMI? This was before FF was the lynch. But he voted Trfel over FF, while thinking FF could be scum. If FF could be scum, why did he vote Trfel? And why call it a yolo move if he thought he could be scum?
Trfel also voted Rels before he went on FF. Trfel is dead now. And I think I'm seeing what Trfel saw in Rels filter. I'm pretty sure I'm voting Rels. Fair enough.
So even if you don't believe DYH bussed HtS like this. Look at his other votes. lol I love how sometimes you talk to me like I'm confirmed town and try to convince me you're town and other times, you make posts like these trying to find mafia motivation behind everything I do. The point I put out regarding HtS, since you asked, was her weird way of shifting the Kush lynch blame onto me. "Shining, done." Like she knew it was going to be a mislynch and wanted to shift blame on me if she was under suspicion for it. I found it very strange, especially for someone who hadn't given me a truly solid townread or town vibes.
The HtS thing makes sense, carry on.
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Any other questions/comments?
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*sigh* You ppl at least going to lynch DYH after me flipping VT?
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