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Good News Everyone!
We have a 1/37 shot at this.
[T][M] Resistance V - Section 31 - Page 8
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Good News Everyone! We have a 1/37 shot at this. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Assumption 4: ShoCkeyy and rayn aren't scum buddies together. Too much abuse. I don't think it is scum to scum since the frustrations seem legit. Eliminated Combinations: ShoCkeyy Rels raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Xatalos raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy Vivax raynpelikoneet ShoCkeyy raynpelikoneet sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Xatalos raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky raynpelikoneet sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos Vivax sicklucker Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Eliminated Combinations: Half the Sky Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Xatalos raynpelikoneet Half the Sky Vivax raynpelikoneet Half the Sky raynpelikoneet sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos Vivax sicklucker Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
 Eliminated Combinations: Rels Xatalos raynpelikoneet Rels Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Xatalos raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] Vivax raynpelikoneet Artanis[Xp] raynpelikoneet sicklucker Xatalos Vivax raynpelikoneet Xatalos raynpelikoneet sicklucker Vivax raynpelikoneet sicklucker Rels raynpelikoneet sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Xatalos sicklucker Rels Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Xatalos Vivax sicklucker | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Eliminated Combinations: Rels Xatalos sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Rels Xatalos Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Eliminated Combinations: Half the Sky Rels sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Rels Xatalos ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
)Even if I don't narrow it down to a single combination, maybe I can narrow it down far enough where there is a team of four (and eventually five) that would be clean based on the combinations remaining. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Whelp this one cuts the pool in half. On November 02 2015 17:29 Rels wrote: Weird that it took kita 1 hour to answer this question, which was asked to him only a few minutes after his opening post. I think it is more likely a town player would jump on something like this, than a mafia player trying to paint me as suspicious for something so innocent. On November 02 2015 19:17 Rels wrote: LOL you have 4 different names in the database Suggests he is actually looking at database games. + Show Spoiler + On November 02 2015 23:16 Rels wrote: OK this tire me so let's lay out what happened. Timeline. 1. Superbia scumreads Xata for saying "playing scum is a nightmare". 2. Superbia asks Xata if he really thinks it's a nightmare, Xata kinda confirms. 3. Superbia uses this to make Xatalos say something he didn't: that being scum isn't nightmarish Conclusion That is the problem with Superbia's early play; twisting Xatalos' words to something he didn't mean. Now he turned that read around to townread Xatalos, and rayn is claiming it's not suspicous, which might be right. But this word-twisting stuff is scum indicative. Suggests he is looking into superbia's motivations and is bothered by contradictions. On November 03 2015 01:25 Rels wrote: This. Please comment. On November 03 2015 01:24 Rels wrote: Man EVERYBODY was up my ass when I was attacking Superbia; but I do one formal post resuming it, and nobody comments on it. Suggests that he cares about pushing things that he finds suspicious, rather than pumping out content for the sake of looking good. On November 03 2015 18:29 Rels wrote: On the other hand, I have no idea why the fuck kitaman would know anything from my scum play. Where did he say that ? He brings this up several times after the day one events. Seems like honest concern for a player who he already shared town reads about. On November 04 2015 01:29 Rels wrote: Yes of course it's a dumb thing to do. I think you should have not say anything and waited to see what rayn would have done tomorrow though. Seems like a reasonable post from someone suspicious of rayn. On November 04 2015 01:38 Rels wrote: Shockey, I can't see any scum motivation to play the way he does; having odd reads that completely differs from the thread sentiment, and defending them to the point of getting scumread for it. Passes on a very easy scum read to make with Shockeyy. Contrarian views usually point to townie. On November 05 2015 07:17 Rels wrote: Xatalos' average filter length per game Average page / phase as town: 10.19 Average page / phase as mafia: 2.51 This game: 11 pages in almost a phase OK I think it's pretty clear. p: Makes a decent effort post that enhances the credibility of a player who he probably would want to oppose from a scum standpoint at this point in the game, unless they are buddies. + Show Spoiler + On November 06 2015 18:57 Rels wrote: You have any post from them saying that ? Cause I had the same feeling, but from HTS: She justified this by saying "there's plenty to suggest Xatalos/rayn are town". She explained that for rayn, but when I made my filter length analysis on Xata she posted this: To which I answer: Since then, she doesn't do any analysis on Xata, but somehow he's so confirmed town that you have to be the scum if the mission fail. Actually, let me check her read progression. Null / will review Looking town Not the towniest but town Town but not town enough to be on her team No issue with Xata's explanations on the choice of the team Xatalos being third towniest at 7/10 Pretty sure Xata is not scum fooling us Xata is confirmed town so SL will be obvious scum if the mission fail Somehow Xata went from "I think he's town" to "he's so conf town SL will be scum if the missions fails". Especially, she said an easy way to confirm Xata would be to make a meta analysis on how shallow his reads are; she didn't do it, but Xata is somehow confirmed town in her mind. Suggests he is reading and analyzing stuff On November 06 2015 06:44 Rels wrote: Like I'm thinking about this game all the time, trying to solve it. I just love that feeling of thinking about something new that make sense  lol seems genuine. Maybe I fall for things like these too easy :p On November 06 2015 18:13 Rels wrote: Suuuuper interesting! With such a close vote, we'll have a lot of infos depending on how the team does. Let's see. If the team pass there are two solutions: - it's a clean team; then there have to be 2 mafias in Shockey / kita / Superbia. Maybe 3, but it's possible one mafia went for the towncred instead if he thought the team would pass even if he voted no; since in this case, he's not on the team, it would be HTS or Arta. Given how HTS posted about her opinions on the vote, I don't see her voting "yes" in that situation when she had the perfect opportunity to vote "no" to a clean team. So if one mafia voted "yes" to a clean team, it would be Arta. - there is 1 (or more) scum in the team but he didn't make the mission failed: unlikely. The goal of the game is to win three missions for both team; exchanging town cred for 1 failure out of 3 doesn't seem to be worth it. It that happens, I think it makes Artanis town, since the plan would be to make Arta pick the same team + himself, fail the mission, and put the blame on him. So if the team passes the mission, then fails the next with SL / rayn / Xata / Arta, it probably means Arta's alignment will be determinent to solving the game; it's either Arta being mafia going for the towncred; or Arta being town on which mafia are trying to put the blame. Figuring this out in this case will be crucial. If the team passes the mission, then passes the next with SL / rayn / Xata / Arta, there are all town and the game is won. That would be cool. (= If the team fails: There is one confirmed mafia in Xata / rayn / SL, maybe 2. There has to be at least 2 mafias in Xata / rayn / SL / HTS / Arta, probably 3 since, as said above, the towncred lost by voting a failure team is more than compensated by the 1 win out of 3 needed. That doesn't apply if one scum thought the team would pass even if he voted "no" though. That's where I'm at. Not going further until tomorrow. Suggests genuine excitement with an attempt to solve things. On November 12 2015 02:43 Rels wrote: I'm too lazy to do any reread right now since we could also have won already p: Heh I was thinking the same thing. Other random tidbits -Frequently changes his reads at different points of the game, which suggests he is considering new information, rather than sticking to tunnels -Picks a battle with rayn early on who is widely viewed as town. Has the opportunity to tunnel rayn, yet considers the alternative at most spots. -Posts are mostly logical without baseless assumptions He does buddy me a ton this game, but I sure am a sucker for buddying. XD Eliminated Combinations: ShoCkeyy Rels sicklucker Rels Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Rels Artanis[Xp] sicklucker Rels Xatalos Vivax Rels Vivax sicklucker Combinations Remaining: ShoCkeyy Xatalos Vivax ShoCkeyy Vivax sicklucker Half the Sky Xatalos Vivax Half the Sky Vivax sicklucker Artanis[Xp] Xatalos Vivax Artanis[Xp] Vivax sicklucker Based on this assumption, it would mean that Vivax is mafia. I'll need to re-read the thread tomorrow from that perspective to make sure I haven't slipped up anywhere and to see if it leads to any other relationships. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 12 2015 19:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Also also I really don't want Kita on any teams after the 'narrowing down' thing he did included both confirming himself as town with no reasoning as well as confirming rels as town for things he can easily do as scum. Wait, so you expect me to consider the scenarios where I could be mafia? How does that help me figure things out in the slightest? Are you considering the scum team to be Artanis/X/Y? Of course not. And of all the things that I have said this game, THAT is the reason you don't want me on any teams? You explain that Vivax is more likely town than me because of the relationship with Xata, yet never once bring up the topic of myself and Xata. In what way does that make sense? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 12 2015 21:28 sicklucker wrote: like im so mad at myself for not remember day 1 votes and being sucked into this false world. will you ever forgive me On November 09 2015 05:24 sicklucker wrote: your scum so idk why im talking to you anyway its so obvious this game.. Four days ago I pointed out the day one voters and this was your response. Why is it relevant now, but not before? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 00:44 sicklucker wrote: kita like what are you doing in this game seriously. Your not even trying to be town or do any townie thing. you did a useless excercise to give you combinations you could have winged on your own lol stop it. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 00:49 ShoCkeyy wrote: I just don't like the voting patterns. I'm basing my team off voting patterns and obv mission flips. Why do the voting patterns lead you to include Artanis? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 12 2015 21:31 Rels wrote: Yeah that's what I think too. But I can't forget that HTS "thought" Artanis had to pick a team before we knew if the Xatalos' team succeeded; and instead of being like "FUCK IT WE RE WAITING" like everybody else, she was like "OH MAYBE WE SHOULD SEND THE SAME TEAM + 1 BEFORE KNOWING THE TEAM 1 RESULT". Going back to this, if HTS is scum then it means she knows the team is going to fail. Does it really make sense for her to jump the gun and suggest the team that is about to fail? It's not like she is going to secretly trick us all into accepting the team before the fail is revealed. The only argument here is that she wanted it to look as if she didn't know the mission result already. However, I'd say it suggests that maybe she got a bit too excited there thinking the game might be won if the team had passed and wanted to come up with a plan for the next mission a bit too soon. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 01:00 ShoCkeyy wrote: ##Nominate ShoCkeyy, Vivax, HtS, Sicklucker oops. I strongly disagree that Vivax is town. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 00:47 Half the Sky wrote: And then I want to shoot myself after! TSA!!! SHE'S GOT A GUN. TAKE HER OUT. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 01:03 kitaman27 wrote: I strongly disagree that Vivax is town. Would you consider Rels or myself to replace Vivax? We have matching voting records so what separates us here in your mind? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 00:38 Half the Sky wrote: I'm on mobile - Kita if you are town, please reference Rels' SOTW 2 and Drams mafia filters so you don't get fooled here? He's good at LOOKING town when he ISN'T town. Ok. Is there anything specific that I should be looking at that relates to this game? To quote Xatalos, your explanation is a bit vague. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 01:23 Rels wrote: No it's not the same thing. In that particular instance: you proposed to send mission 2 before knowing the result of mission 1. Mission 1 failed. So it's possible you wanted the same infiltrated team to be sent two times before we could realize it. lol we'd have to be pretty slow to fall for that wouldn't we? There is a full 48 hour period between the two. You're saying that her plan was to hope nobody noticed the team failed or.....? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 01:28 kitaman27 wrote: lol we'd have to be pretty slow to fall for that wouldn't we? There is a full 48 hour period between the two. You're saying that her plan was to hope nobody noticed the team failed or.....? This has to be the most sketchy thing you've said all game Rels. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 13 2015 01:32 Rels wrote: Do you realize this quote comes from a time where she thought the nomination of the next team would happen before the result of the first team ? But I agree it doesn't make sense actually since the voting still would have taken place after the result. It still wouldn't matter because of the results before the vote, but yeah I guess you acknowledged that. | ||
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