EPTOn November 02 2015 09:10 Blazinghand wrote:
it might make most sense to post them all right b4 EoN
it might make most sense to post them all right b4 EoN
Yep, that's what I'm planning on doing.
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 16
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Chromatically
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Yep, that's what I'm planning on doing. | ||
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Why I am assuming Hopeless is mafia Hopeless is not playing this game at all, voted on the town in a town-mafia wagon on D3, does not have a particularly townie filter, and, due to the fact that he is not playing the game, will lose the game for town in LYLO/final three by not knowing who to vote. I think if Hopeless is town, town has lost this game already because there is no way Hopeless does not get lynched at all this game AND finds the last mafia in final three. In addition, from my perspective if Hopeless was town, that means that at least one mafia was on Onegu D3 (since me and Vivax are the only other people on the GB wagon). If one mafia was on Onegu, then why would Vivax push GB so hard if they were bussing? That leads me to believe that, in a world where Hopeless is town, that TWO mafia were probably on Onegu. I don't see any way that this is possible because I don't think that BH or gumshoe can be mafia. So, for a lot of reasons, Hopeless has to be the lynch tomorrow. In the rest of this post, I'm assuming that Hopeless is mafia. Vote Count Stuff On October 30 2015 07:02 Rels wrote: Day 3 Final Vote Count Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritoky GlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu So, assuming that Hopeless is mafia, there are two options for the D3 votes: bus or no bus. If the last mafia was on GB, then it's Vivax (or me). I think it's pretty unlikely that the last mafia was on Onegu. 4-3 LYLO is an extremely tough prospect (if even one town is wrong, the game is over), and I have to think that mafia would want to put us there if at all possible. I explained earlier that I think everyone on the Onegu wagon had decent enough reason to switch over to GB (BH was saying that both were mafia, gumshoe was voting GB earlier, ritoky was on GB hard), but they didn't switch. Mafia could have put us in 4-3 LYLO with minimal suspicion on themselves, but they chose not to for some reason? Plus, everyone on that wagon was being read as strongly town already, so there was no need to bus for town cred. But, in the case the last mafia was on Onegu, who is the most likely bus? Consider that if Hopeless is mafia, he came in and threw a vote down on the town wagon. If mafia was planning to bus D3, they would have told Hopeless to vote Onegu and get cred from it. The fact that Hopeless didn't do this means that either a) Hopeless is paying literally 0 attention to scum qt (possible I guess) or b) the bus on Onegu was completely unplanned. The only person who's vote was unplanned was, of course, ritoky. In addition, BH and gumshoe were going after Onegu for a while before D3. I have an extremely hard time believing that they were doing some sort of crazy long-term bus play on their whole team. So IF mafia was on Onegu, I think it has to be ritoky. I don't think that it's totally unreasonable that ritoky busses Onegu. He knows Onegu is going down at some point, so he wants to ride the game out on town cred. Maybe they thought that 4-3 LYLO wouldn't be that bad for town since Onegu and Hopeless were probably getting lynched next regardless, and ritoky just wanted the most town cred for final three. That's the tinfoil scenario I'm entertaining now, but I don't see it as particularly likely. Straight reads BH: I think BH is never mafia in this game. He's been legitimately going after Onegu and Hopeless the whole game. D1 shenannies onto Onegu were actually a real possibility, he pushed Onegu D2, he planned shenannies onto Hopeless D2, pushed the lynch through on D3. He even said that there were two scum up for lynch in Onegu and GB, but chose to push Onegu and stay on him the whole time. It's possible the shennanies were all not going to happen and Onegu was a planned bus and everything, but I think it's extremely unlikely. Plus, he's posting a lot of sensible analysis and scumhunting. He's been on the exact same page as me for most of the game (he says exactly what I'm thinking a lot). gumshoe: I also don't think there's any way gumshoe is mafia. He's been super active, posting lots of analysis, pushing his reads (which he feels strongly about). Right after yamato was lynched, he started pushing Onegu and Hopeless and hasn't stopped. He's been actively working against the GB lynch, which I see absolutely no reason for mafia to do (they could say they don't support it, but going that in depth on a defense is totally unnecessary). He voted Onegu early on in D3, switched to GB a bit, but then chose to switch back to Onegu. Why do this at all if you're mafia? As mafia, he would have either chose to bus Onegu and stuck there (and told Hopeless to vote there too), or to act really uncertain about the lynch and have his vote land on GB. I don't see any reason for mafia gumshoe to flop around like he did, before bussing his partner. In addition, he's way more active than his previous mafia games. ritoky: ritoky I think is the most viable alternative to Vivax as mafia, mostly because I think he's the only mildly realistic bus on Onegu. However, I think his play has been town overall. He's been posting his thought process a lot and it seems like town thinking about the game, he's had a relaxed, town tone the whole game, and he's been very interested in finding mafia. On D3, he ends up hard defending Onegu, and I feel like mafia wouldn't hard defend Onegu as much as he did (he comments multiple times on it, so he would look terrible when Onegu flips) when they would be able to see that Onegu is going down at some point this game. Then, he yolo switches onto Onegu, which could theoretically be a bus so he can ride the game out on town cred as explained above. However, I think the thought process for his switch, shown in his posts before he switches, makes sense from a town perspective. In addition, he switched to Onegu D1 with BH, which seems like a super unnecessary risk to take as mafia because I think the D1 shenannies had a decent chance to actually happen. He was tinfoiling a lot earlier about who is mafia with GB, which just seems weird to do when you know GB is town. In Onegu's filter, he pushes ritoky a mild amount, disagreed with my read on him, and blatantly says things like "ritoky moving to Onegu D1 should not get him a townread", which makes me feel like they are not as likely of partners. This could just be wrong and Onegu was calling out his partner a lot (he never pushed to lynch ritoky), but I feel like it isn't. If his team is ritoky/Hopeless, that would mean that he was calling out his whole team for a while which I just feel like is unlikely. The night actions are mildly incriminating for ritoky (rayn was suspecting ritoky for a while and Xatalos was the most convinced that ritoky could be mafia), but that could just be WIFOM. Overall, I think it's possible that ritoky is the last mafia, but pretty unlikely. I think he's the only one that could have bussed Onegu in my opinion, but I don't see any reason to believe that Onegu was a bus. I think ritoky has been pretty town this whole game in his play and willingness to figure out the game. Vivax: Vivax is definitely the most likely mafia at this point. The biggest point against him is the association with Onegu. He's made very little comment on Onegu/Hopeless, and certainly hasn't pushed them for lynch. On D3, when Onegu is up for lynch, Vivax never gives a real read on him despite the fact that he's a main wagon. He ends up on the GB (town) wagon, and he is pretty strongly pushing it (told Xatalos to get on the GB wagon) despite the fact that he doesn't have a townread on Onegu (in fact he says that "Onegu isn't a bad lynch"). Onegu gives literally no read on Vivax in his entire filter. He just says that he'll "trust yamato's read" early on. I thought his reasons for scumreading gumshoe didn't make much sense and were based on essentially one post. His read progression on GB was a little strange. N1 he has a huge scumread on GB, but when D2 rolls around he downgrades it to kind of a mild suspicion because of something BH posted, and switches to yamato. On D3 he says GB is 100% mafia for meta reasons, which I would think he should have already seen earlier? This could mean that Vivax, as mafia, doesn't care enough about the lynch between two towns (yamato/GB) to fight the lynch on D2, but pushes the GB lynch when Onegu (mafia) is up as the wagon. I also didn't like his read progression on me. He accused me early in D1 (which I think was fair), but when my play picked up N1 and D2 his read didn't change and he still said that I had low thread interaction despite the fact that I had been discussing with a lot of people (maybe I'm being biased here?). I also thought it was weird that he was "freaked out" by my persistence on GB over yamato when it should have been clear why. He could have just been trying to make me look worse and keep me as a mislynch. A lot of it is also PoE. I think that everyone else has posted a lot of town thought processes, and Vivax hasn't done that as much for me. Some points in favor of him being town: - It seems a little weird for mafia to really try and save Onegu when he was going to be lynched at some point. - He answered the question I asked to Onegu, which I feel like mafia wouldn't do because it would feel like too much association to them? - I like that he picked ritoky as his person to push, because I would be having the same thought in his position as town. However, I think he has done more sketchy things than anyone else in the game and I would bet on him being the last mafia at this point. Overall: I think BH and gumshoe are very town, both from play and from the fact that they are highly unlikely to be mafia with Onegu. I think Hopeless needs to be lynched next, he should be mafia. I don't think that town can win if Hopeless is town. I think ritoky has played townier than Vivax this game, so I think Vivax is most likely the last mafia. The fact that Vivax tried to save Onegu seems weird to me, so I'm paranoid that ritoky decided to go full yolo and bus Onegu unplanned, but I don't think there's a good reason to believe that Onegu was bussed instead of mafia simply voting on GB. Right now, I think I'm at 90% Hopeless + Vivax and 10% Hopeless + ritoky. I'm definitely not done evaluating, though, and the good news is we should have a lot of time to figure it out. | ||
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##Vote: Hopeless1der | ||
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This'll be really disappointing if Hopeless is somehow town because I think there's literally no way we can avoid lynching him here. | ||
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On November 03 2015 07:12 Blazinghand wrote: Hmm, I hadn't approached it from that second perspective. I don't think it's a good idea to dig into that necessarily. I think in general though whether vivax is scum OR town, it's was fairly clear ritoky was unlynchable. Gumshoe and I both look good for lynching 1G over GB. Ritoky, though, he jumped over at the last minute and made a difference; he was pretty much unlynchable. Vivax pushing on him, hard, and failing to convince ANYONE showed that pretty much no matter what Ritoky wouldn't get lynched. If Vivax is scum, he probably realized he didn't have a good way of breaking off the attack, but killing Ritoky is a good idea because Ritoky is unlynchable anyways. If Vivax is town, similar logic applies; whoever is scum with H1 probably did some thinking and decided that Ritoky wasn't lynchable and needed to be shot. "Would scum Vivax shoot the guy he's pushing, to make himself look better, because it's not something scum would do?" is probably the classic example of WIFOM and shouldn't be thought about TOO much except to make sure that it really is WIFOM. So Chrom, what do you think of my toneread of Vivax? Take a look at his posts right after the Onegu flip, and how he's angry rather than pleased. Do you agree? I mean, I would have said that ritoky was the most lynchable out of the three of you for the kind of stuff I talk about in that big post. I don't see you/gumshoe pushing Onegu/Hopeless for days and not telling Hopeless to get in on that action, whereas I thought it was possible that ritoky just bussed on impulse at the last second. But I agree that it's probably not too useful to overanalyze it. I'm not sure what I think of it. I don't feel like mafia Vivax would have been "angry" at you for lynching mafia (as mafia, I don't really feel angry at townies for lynching my partners), but I could see him as mafia getting salty about Onegu getting barely lynched over GB for what he thinks are not good reasons (mafia get mad about being lynched for bad reasons). Maybe he was just annoyed at you for not being on his lynch for bad reasons though. I'm not convinced that it's too alignment-indicative. Wouldn't mafia be careful to not show their emotions in the thread if they were mad after a mafia lynch? The stranger part about it, I think, is that it seems like Vivax really wanted GB over Onegu but didn't really have an opinion on Onegu. | ||
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gumshoe actually pushed Onegu and Hopeless D1 (like, a lot), essentially from his first few posts, and he's the first to say that he would be down switching to Onegu "to spare slam and rayn", not something I see mafia ever saying. This post was super town too, consider that it describes exactly what he's done this game: On October 22 2015 08:59 gumshoe wrote: No,simply that you should acknowledge that your bad at reading my alignment when im actually playing / : similar to how I'm actually shit at catching mafia in general. Historically all my big cases that I've dumped a ton of passion and love in to have been ugly busts. I'm taking a more dispassionate stance this game and though I will certainly provide reads free of charge I rather not be pushed incessantly to do so and become enamored with my own garbage. I'm kinda tired of being the proto pants on head townie, whose only use is to prove his townie alignment via his imaginative stupidity. I'm playing to win this time : P so when and if I have good reads, you'll hearem(may very well just sheep /  . For now I think chrome is scum based off what I said before, but that might change if the situation calls for it.Bh is probally town (i liked the answers he gave and read his filter a bit more), Ritoky is town, your a meanie and everyone else except chrome is not particularly notable. BH's vote switch onto Onegu didn't seem as likely to go through as I remember it being (it started from 9 on Slam/0 on Onegu, and ended at 7 Slam/3 Onegu). But, it would be super risky to do as mafia because not many people had expressed a desire to not lynch Onegu (basically everyone except rayn and marv were possible switchers onto Onegu), so BH really had no way of knowing how many people would switch with him. And, BH had a scumread on both me and Onegu at the time. As mafia, it would be much safer to push shenannies on me first if he's just doing it to look active than risk actually killing his partner. Vivax doesn't seem anywhere near as townie as people thought he was on D1, I'm not sure why everyone gave him that town read. When everyone is expressing whether or not they want to switch to Onegu (me, marv, Xatalos all explicitly say that we don't want to), Vivax only says this, without committing to a stance on it. On October 24 2015 05:49 Vivax wrote: what are theae onegu hipster votea Already said that Hopeless' D1 just feels like he's going around asking a bunch of useless questions to look active. Awkward interaction for bonus points: On October 23 2015 05:57 Hopeless1der wrote: Are you trying to get spite lynched? I may not be the most suited to make threats, but if you continue to play up the bravado without contributing I will fully support lynching you. I guess I don't really need to convince anyone with this post but I thought I'd say what I found anyway. Going to keep reading through the game over the next few days. | ||
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On October 23 2015 11:59 GlowingBear wrote: ... ~ Could lynch harder: Onegu (I can never read him and I hated that he said he would sheep me - gives me deja vu from last game where he was mafia against me - him being more invested in this game is usually a bad sign) Hopeless1der (useless - feels like his play in Avogadro's Mini Mafia) Vivax (I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updated ... This was pretty funny too. Whoopsies sorry GB! | ||
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