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Season of the Witch 2 - Page 65

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22063 Posts
September 20 2015 12:53 GMT
#1281
don't

vote

LS

Rayn is mafia in this game boys
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
September 20 2015 12:54 GMT
#1282
So I post this, analyzing angelic protection, soup+mislynch after copclaim, and try to explain to everyone (tt and everyone end up agreeing im right on this...) that it is better for cop to claim and us to have vivax+cop souped... to avoid mylo... because we wont lose any mislynches... basically im playing devil's advocate to see who will agree with this in all honesty because i really dont like my own plan here. I liked TicTock's continued analysis, but i DID NOT like Rels. His was scum motivated, whereas tictock's wasn't. Kind of hard to put it into words, but TicTock corrected me on a minor mistake I made, whereas Rels was trying to push the worst parts of it and only put forward the mylo and bad scenarios. he then parroted the conclusion that i had without even putting forward the good scenarios to see that's where the conclusion would come from. how did he reach said conclusion without having the scenarios where the conclusion would be valid included? he couldnt have. only scum would steal my work like that.


On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.

Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.

Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.

So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.

That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.

So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation.

I 100% disagree with this
we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town
we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night
either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer

first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward
8v2
lynch 7v2
nightkill 6v2
lynch 5v2
nightkill4v2 (mylo)
but if you do your scenario
8v2
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
lynch 4v2
nightkill 3v2
(cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo)

TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia.

What do I propose? No lynch? Nope. Wanna know why? Angelic Protection. We have Geript in the graveyard dictating where protections should be from the masses. We get a good lynch, and a good protect, and we are potentially ahead of where we were before.

Tictock, I don't scumread you at all anymore. Reads change over the course of a game. I am, and have been, deadset on lynching Damdred. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I'm just not feeling town-Damdred.

I also feel he has overly interacted with FecalFeast, and the way they both acted with the Grail was pretty peculiar. I believe you're asking me about LS? Well, his interactions with Rayn have me leaning town on him, but I saw 1 post he made that reminded me of his scum game. I'm not that good at reading him, so I don't want to be like "ermagerd hez tern" and be wrong



So here is the first thing he stole:


On September 20 2015 18:06 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 09:40 Tictock wrote:
On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.

Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.

Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.

So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.

That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.

So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation.

I 100% disagree with this
we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town
we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night
either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer

first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward
8v2
lynch 7v2
nightkill 6v2
lynch 5v2
nightkill4v2 (mylo)
but if you do your scenario
8v2
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
lynch 4v2
nightkill 3v2
(cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo)

TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia.


So looking back at this, I noticed that there are some mistakes/weird stuff happening here.

In your 2nd list you have town mislynching, followed by a soup kill which makes no sense. Only way we get a 2nd claim today is if Inq claims a redcheck which would mean:
8v2
lynch 8v1
soup 6v1
mislynch 5v1
nightkill 4v1
ml 3v1
nk 2v1
LyLo

no soup
8v2
ml 7v2
nk 6v2
ml 5v2
nk 4v2
MyLo

Or the 7/3 situation
7v3
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
ml 4v2
nk 3v2
LyLo

And lastly 7/3 no soup
7v3
ml 6v3
nk 5v3
MyLo (ml 4v3 into nk 3v3)

That last one is scary actually.
Also I now see exactly what you mean BM. Redcheck should definitely be claimed.

It probably should have been claimed already, but if you listened to my lat post about this and held off claiming a redcheck now is the time. Otherwise assuming Damdred is town seems fairly reasonable.

OK I'll resume this post to see if it makes sense. Assuming Shining wasn't mafia, as I'm pretty sure he was town, and assuming we mislynch every day, the three possibilities are:
Red check claimed:
7-3 is now
7-2 mislynch
6-2 after NK
Two mislynches left before losing

Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

It doesn't make sense for the inquisitor to not claim.


On September 19 2015 14:44 Tictock wrote:
Vote Count: ~24hrs before EoD
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet
The Shining (1): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (1): Rels
Damdred (5): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky

Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (1): geript




EoDVote Count
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
The Shining (0): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
Damdred (2): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky, Vivax
Bill Murray (0): Vivax

Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (0): geript, Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike





EoDVote Count: Cleaned up with colors!
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
Damdred (2): Bill Murray, Vivax


Holy Grail Vote
geript (7): raynpelikoneet, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
Vivax (4): Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (1): Fecalfeast

Ok this doesn't really tell us a whole lot, or at least I dont see much information from this, but maybe someone who is better with VCA stuff cna read more into it than I, also now we have a couple of VCs for D1 to look at.

The runaway train that grew on Dandel probably has all the mafia on it. Rayn has been pretty clearly town, Vivax is unCC'd and I'm leaning town on BM, so that's where I'm going to put my focus.

Damdred, LS and FF and an outside chance of Fidei are the people I'm thinking are most likely scum. I'm not really sure if I'm still scum reading Fidei, but I'm gunna leave him on the scummier side of null for now untill I get a chance to reread him. I know that he's playing in multiple games at once so that split of his focus might be affecting my read on him.


And then stealing tictocks

On September 19 2015 19:22 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2015 14:44 Tictock wrote:
Vote Count: ~24hrs before EoD
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet
The Shining (1): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (1): Rels
Damdred (5): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky

Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (1): geript




EoDVote Count
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
The Shining (0): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
Damdred (2): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky, Vivax
Bill Murray (0): Vivax

Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (0): geript, Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike





EoDVote Count: Cleaned up with colors!
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
Damdred (2): Bill Murray, Vivax


Holy Grail Vote
geript (7): raynpelikoneet, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
Vivax (4): Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (1): Fecalfeast

Ok this doesn't really tell us a whole lot, or at least I dont see much information from this, but maybe someone who is better with VCA stuff cna read more into it than I, also now we have a couple of VCs for D1 to look at.

The runaway train that grew on Dandel probably has all the mafia on it. Rayn has been pretty clearly town, Vivax is unCC'd and I'm leaning town on BM, so that's where I'm going to put my focus.

Damdred, LS and FF and an outside chance of Fidei are the people I'm thinking are most likely scum. I'm not really sure if I'm still scum reading Fidei, but I'm gunna leave him on the scummier side of null for now untill I get a chance to reread him. I know that he's playing in multiple games at once so that split of his focus might be affecting my read on him.

Pretty cool (=
I prefer a colored vote count with switches though. Here it is:

EoDVote Count
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
The Shining (0): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
Damdred (2): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky, Vivax
Bill Murray (0): Vivax

Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (0): geript, Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike

Not much to say with that big of a wagon. Dandel voting for LS at the end is weird; why did he not fucking shot LS.
I disagree with BM outside the main wagon being town indicative. Maybe if he was here at EOD and had reasons to do so, it would mean something; but the reason he's not on the main wagon is that he was not here.


University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:55 GMT
#1283
On September 20 2015 21:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If he gets counter-claimed the pope dies with vivax anyways.
There is literally no downside for making the claim. But good enough, at least we know geript's role 100%.

geript could be pope too if LS is mafia
please explain how you know geript is 100% wraith
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:56 GMT
#1284
Fuck you vivax.
Literally we end up in a SAME FUCKING SITUATION EVEN IF LS IS TOWN!!!!!!
1) LS is mafia. We lynch mafia and have 1 person to soap (vivax).
2) LS is town - the exorcist can shoot mafia, we have 1 person to soap (vivax)

It is still 2 dead town 1 dead mafia.
Stop being terrible. Not to even mention [/b]CLAIMING WONT SAVE YOU YOU DUMBASS!!!"!!"!!!! AND YOU MADE THE ONLY CLAIM, LS, THAT IS THE BEST THING FOR MAFIA.[/b]

You should have played the game properly if you are town.
table for two on a tv tray
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:57 GMT
#1285
BM funny how you stopped saying my vote plan was bad since rayn precised it was his plan
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:57 GMT
#1286
On September 20 2015 21:55 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If he gets counter-claimed the pope dies with vivax anyways.
There is literally no downside for making the claim. But good enough, at least we know geript's role 100%.

geript could be pope too if LS is mafia
please explain how you know geript is 100% wraith

it doesn't matter we are gonna massclaim anyways when there is 1 mafia left.
It doesn't matter which one geript was.
table for two on a tv tray
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
September 20 2015 12:57 GMT
#1287
On September 20 2015 21:41 Vivax wrote:
And rayn keeps bringing this cop argument when he should realize as well that the cop claim is only worth it if he got off at least two checks. Or me and the cop get souped the next night for just one witch.

Rayn puts it as if Damdred's alignment was relevant but he doesn't really care while he keeps using that excuse to not do anything about Dam and push the easy lynch LS.

So rayn is mafia too, which also explains BM's odd behaviour towards rayn on D1.

Just not sure who between FF/Damdred is the most likely third. FF gave me a weird impression during the course of the game but if Dam is town then I don't know why he's (not) playing like that.

vivax that wouldnt be that bad
we are gonna hit mylo if we have odd number kills
losing you + cop for 1 red is actually worth it that way it doesnt end up 3 town 1 maf potentially (3 town is worse than 2 in that scenario)

On September 20 2015 21:46 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:44 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:40 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:
BM he actually has a point because i kinda find it really hard to believe you have a strong town read on me based on early game (i had basically said geript is town, LS is mafia, cop check should be directed because of reasons).

And then you... just what? forget one of these things and use it against him when it should be a reason to TOWNread him (as you are basically townreading me for the same thing)?

who is "him" here? Rels? Vivax?
who has a point? Rels? Vivax?
use what against who? i dont see how using logic A for player A means logic A works for player b
you're being illogical

I make a plan.
Rels agrees with it.

You townread me.
You scumread him FOR agreeing with me.

You are using "sheeping rayn" against him.

And I AM BEING ILLOGICAL?

no im scumreading him for stealing peoples posts and plagiarizing them

The ONLY time when this is scummy is if I disform the original post to get my team an advantage
so show me where I did that
or show me where the original plan was bad
otherwise your reasonning is super bad

you did that with my post
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
September 20 2015 12:58 GMT
#1288
GERIPT FYI I WISH YOU WERE ALIVE AT THIS POINT TO HELP ME DEAL WITH RAYN YOU KNOW I SPEAKING THE TRUTH ABOUT YOU GERIPT
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22063 Posts
September 20 2015 12:58 GMT
#1289
On September 20 2015 21:55 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If he gets counter-claimed the pope dies with vivax anyways.
There is literally no downside for making the claim. But good enough, at least we know geript's role 100%.

geript could be pope too if LS is mafia
please explain how you know geript is 100% wraith


I think it has already been said somewhere that LS is exposing himself to the risk of a double CC if he says he's the pope AND he has been visited by the wraith (which would make sense if it was geript cause he was suspicious of LS I suppose)
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
September 20 2015 12:59 GMT
#1290
God LS I make a good case on someone and you come in with this?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:59 GMT
#1291
On September 20 2015 21:58 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:55 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If he gets counter-claimed the pope dies with vivax anyways.
There is literally no downside for making the claim. But good enough, at least we know geript's role 100%.

geript could be pope too if LS is mafia
please explain how you know geript is 100% wraith


I think it has already been said somewhere that LS is exposing himself to the risk of a double CC if he says he's the pope AND he has been visited by the wraith (which would make sense if it was geript cause he was suspicious of LS I suppose)

DOUBLE CC IS TERRIBLE BECAUSE WE FUCKING LOST THREE PEOPLE AT NIGHT.

Fuck why do i end up playing this setup with dumb people. I really hope i was mafia....
table for two on a tv tray
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:59 GMT
#1292
On September 20 2015 21:57 Bill Murray wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:41 Vivax wrote:
And rayn keeps bringing this cop argument when he should realize as well that the cop claim is only worth it if he got off at least two checks. Or me and the cop get souped the next night for just one witch.

Rayn puts it as if Damdred's alignment was relevant but he doesn't really care while he keeps using that excuse to not do anything about Dam and push the easy lynch LS.

So rayn is mafia too, which also explains BM's odd behaviour towards rayn on D1.

Just not sure who between FF/Damdred is the most likely third. FF gave me a weird impression during the course of the game but if Dam is town then I don't know why he's (not) playing like that.

vivax that wouldnt be that bad
we are gonna hit mylo if we have odd number kills
losing you + cop for 1 red is actually worth it that way it doesnt end up 3 town 1 maf potentially (3 town is worse than 2 in that scenario)

Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:46 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:44 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:40 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:
BM he actually has a point because i kinda find it really hard to believe you have a strong town read on me based on early game (i had basically said geript is town, LS is mafia, cop check should be directed because of reasons).

And then you... just what? forget one of these things and use it against him when it should be a reason to TOWNread him (as you are basically townreading me for the same thing)?

who is "him" here? Rels? Vivax?
who has a point? Rels? Vivax?
use what against who? i dont see how using logic A for player A means logic A works for player b
you're being illogical

I make a plan.
Rels agrees with it.

You townread me.
You scumread him FOR agreeing with me.

You are using "sheeping rayn" against him.

And I AM BEING ILLOGICAL?

no im scumreading him for stealing peoples posts and plagiarizing them

The ONLY time when this is scummy is if I disform the original post to get my team an advantage
so show me where I did that
or show me where the original plan was bad
otherwise your reasonning is super bad

you did that with my post

how I am fucking turning your idea into a mafia advantage if I have he SAME CONCLUSIONS AS YOU
and you didn't do it for the other two things: votecounts and check plan
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:59 GMT
#1293
Also geript checks me as a wraith about 99 times out of 100.
true story.
table for two on a tv tray
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
September 20 2015 13:00 GMT
#1294
Pope is a worthless role anyways, especially if LS is the pope

Furthermore, if what he's claiming is true, and the WW is dead ...

WW strategy is right out because Dandelion was the Grandler and WW strategy only worked with an alive Pope or Grandler
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
September 20 2015 13:01 GMT
#1295
On September 20 2015 21:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:58 Vivax wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:55 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If he gets counter-claimed the pope dies with vivax anyways.
There is literally no downside for making the claim. But good enough, at least we know geript's role 100%.

geript could be pope too if LS is mafia
please explain how you know geript is 100% wraith


I think it has already been said somewhere that LS is exposing himself to the risk of a double CC if he says he's the pope AND he has been visited by the wraith (which would make sense if it was geript cause he was suspicious of LS I suppose)

DOUBLE CC IS TERRIBLE BECAUSE WE FUCKING LOST THREE PEOPLE AT NIGHT.

Fuck why do i end up playing this setup with dumb people. I really hope i was mafia....

I agree that Vivax is playing subpar this game
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 13:01 GMT
#1296
OK BM claim I am mafia for stealing people's idea and posting them
As I said, the only time it is scum indicative is if I disform ideas to get my team an advantage
And he couldn't prove that
he is mafia
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
September 20 2015 13:01 GMT
#1297
On September 20 2015 21:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Also geript checks me as a wraith about 99 times out of 100.
true story.

No offense but he would rather go to me since he was suspicious of me over you or his role is actually RNG and he visted me instead of you because of RNG idk I don't even know but I don't think's RNG he would visted me on purpose.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 13:02 GMT
#1298
On September 20 2015 21:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Also geript checks me as a wraith about 99 times out of 100.
true story.

OK that is fucking true
##DeadlineVote LightningStrike
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22063 Posts
September 20 2015 13:03 GMT
#1299
I know that LS' claim is awful. Any claim is awful.

But why does rayn acknowledge this in this case and not in the case of an hypotheitcal inquisitor outing Damdred?
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 13:03 GMT
#1300
LS + BM mafia checks out with BM being the last guy saying he thought LS was scum
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