So I post this, analyzing angelic protection, soup+mislynch after copclaim, and try to explain to everyone (tt and everyone end up agreeing im right on this...) that it is better for cop to claim and us to have vivax+cop souped... to avoid mylo... because we wont lose any mislynches... basically im playing devil's advocate to see who will agree with this in all honesty because i really dont like my own plan here. I liked TicTock's continued analysis, but i DID NOT like Rels. His was scum motivated, whereas tictock's wasn't. Kind of hard to put it into words, but TicTock corrected me on a minor mistake I made, whereas Rels was trying to push the worst parts of it and only put forward the mylo and bad scenarios. he then parroted the conclusion that i had without even putting forward the good scenarios to see that's where the conclusion would come from. how did he reach said conclusion without having the scenarios where the conclusion would be valid included? he couldnt have. only scum would steal my work like that.
On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.
Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.
Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.
So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.
That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.
So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation. I 100% disagree with this we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward 8v2 lynch 7v2 nightkill 6v2 lynch 5v2 nightkill4v2 (mylo) but if you do your scenario 8v2 lynch 7v2 soup 5v2 lynch 4v2 nightkill 3v2 (cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo) TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia. What do I propose? No lynch? Nope. Wanna know why? Angelic Protection. We have Geript in the graveyard dictating where protections should be from the masses. We get a good lynch, and a good protect, and we are potentially ahead of where we were before. Tictock, I don't scumread you at all anymore. Reads change over the course of a game. I am, and have been, deadset on lynching Damdred. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I'm just not feeling town-Damdred. I also feel he has overly interacted with FecalFeast, and the way they both acted with the Grail was pretty peculiar. I believe you're asking me about LS? Well, his interactions with Rayn have me leaning town on him, but I saw 1 post he made that reminded me of his scum game. I'm not that good at reading him, so I don't want to be like "ermagerd hez tern" and be wrong
So here is the first thing he stole:
On September 20 2015 18:06 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2015 09:40 Tictock wrote:On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.
Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.
Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.
So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.
That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.
So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation. I 100% disagree with this we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward 8v2 lynch 7v2 nightkill 6v2 lynch 5v2 nightkill4v2 (mylo) but if you do your scenario 8v2 lynch 7v2 soup 5v2 lynch 4v2 nightkill 3v2 (cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo) TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia. So looking back at this, I noticed that there are some mistakes/weird stuff happening here. In your 2nd list you have town mislynching, followed by a soup kill which makes no sense. Only way we get a 2nd claim today is if Inq claims a redcheck which would mean: 8v2 lynch 8v1 soup 6v1 mislynch 5v1 nightkill 4v1 ml 3v1 nk 2v1 LyLo no soup 8v2 ml 7v2 nk 6v2 ml 5v2 nk 4v2 MyLo Or the 7/3 situation 7v3 lynch 7v2 soup 5v2 ml 4v2 nk 3v2 LyLo And lastly 7/3 no soup 7v3 ml 6v3 nk 5v3 MyLo (ml 4v3 into nk 3v3) That last one is scary actually. Also I now see exactly what you mean BM. Redcheck should definitely be claimed. It probably should have been claimed already, but if you listened to my lat post about this and held off claiming a redcheck now is the time. Otherwise assuming Damdred is town seems fairly reasonable. OK I'll resume this post to see if it makes sense. Assuming Shining wasn't mafia, as I'm pretty sure he was town, and assuming we mislynch every day, the three possibilities are: Red check claimed: 7-3 is now 7-2 mislynch 6-2 after NK Two mislynches left before losing Red check not claimed: 7-3 is now 6-3 mislynch 5-3 after NK One mislynch left before losing Green check not claimed: 7-3 is now 6-3 mislynch 5-3 after NK One mislyng before losing It doesn't make sense for the inquisitor to not claim.
On September 19 2015 14:44 Tictock wrote:
Vote Count: ~24hrs before EoD
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet
The Shining (1): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (1): Rels
Damdred (5): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky
Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (1): geript
EoDVote Count
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
The Shining (0): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
Damdred (2): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky, Vivax
Bill Murray (0): Vivax
Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (0): geript, Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike
EoDVote Count: Cleaned up with colors!
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
Damdred (2): Bill Murray, Vivax
Holy Grail Vote
geript (7): raynpelikoneet, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
Vivax (4): Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (1): Fecalfeast
Ok this doesn't really tell us a whole lot, or at least I dont see much information from this, but maybe someone who is better with VCA stuff cna read more into it than I, also now we have a couple of VCs for D1 to look at.
The runaway train that grew on Dandel probably has all the mafia on it. Rayn has been pretty clearly town, Vivax is unCC'd and I'm leaning town on BM, so that's where I'm going to put my focus.
Damdred, LS and FF and an outside chance of Fidei are the people I'm thinking are most likely scum. I'm not really sure if I'm still scum reading Fidei, but I'm gunna leave him on the scummier side of null for now untill I get a chance to reread him. I know that he's playing in multiple games at once so that split of his focus might be affecting my read on him.
And then stealing tictocks
On September 19 2015 19:22 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2015 14:44 Tictock wrote:
Vote Count: ~24hrs before EoD
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet
The Shining (1): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (1): Rels
Damdred (5): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky
Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (1): geript
EoDVote Count
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
The Shining (0): Rels, Dandel Ion
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
Damdred (2): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky, Vivax
Bill Murray (0): Vivax
Holy Grail Vote
geript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
TicTock (1): Rels
raynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the Sky
Vivax (0): geript, Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike
EoDVote Count: Cleaned up with colors!
Dandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geript
LightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion
Damdred (2): Bill Murray, Vivax
Holy Grail Vote
geript (7): raynpelikoneet, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel Ion
Vivax (4): Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike
Fecalfeast (1): Fecalfeast
Ok this doesn't really tell us a whole lot, or at least I dont see much information from this, but maybe someone who is better with VCA stuff cna read more into it than I, also now we have a couple of VCs for D1 to look at.
The runaway train that grew on Dandel probably has all the mafia on it. Rayn has been pretty clearly town, Vivax is unCC'd and I'm leaning town on BM, so that's where I'm going to put my focus.
Damdred, LS and FF and an outside chance of Fidei are the people I'm thinking are most likely scum. I'm not really sure if I'm still scum reading Fidei, but I'm gunna leave him on the scummier side of null for now untill I get a chance to reread him. I know that he's playing in multiple games at once so that split of his focus might be affecting my read on him.
Pretty cool (= I prefer a colored vote count with switches though. Here it is: EoDVote CountLightningStrike (2): raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky, geript, raynpelikoneet, Dandel IonThe Shining (0): Rels, Dandel IonDandel Ion (9): Rels, Damdred, Tictock, Half the Sky, Fidei86, The Shining, Fecalfeast, LightningStrike, geriptDamdred (2): raynpelikoneet, LightningStrike, Fecalfeast, Bill Murray, The Shining, Half the Sky, Vivax Bill Murray (0): VivaxHoly Grail Votegeript (2): raynpelikoneet, geript, Bill Murray, geript, Damdred, The Shining, Rels, Dandel IonTicTock (1): Relsraynpelikoneet (1): LightningStrike Fecalfeast (3): Fecalfeast, The Shining, Half the SkyVivax (0): geript, Half the Sky, Vivax, Fidei86, LightningStrike Not much to say with that big of a wagon. Dandel voting for LS at the end is weird; why did he not fucking shot LS. I disagree with BM outside the main wagon being town indicative. Maybe if he was here at EOD and had reasons to do so, it would mean something; but the reason he's not on the main wagon is that he was not here.
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EPT
