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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
Also can you elaborate more on your read on LS. One of those four is not mafia and three of them are. This is actually really important right now because i am getting back to the "LS is scum" train and then i have no fucking clue which of those three is town (except James is not). | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 18 2015 03:10 Damdred wrote: Though lynching me here might not be a horrid decision...i won't be able to play full time till sunday On September 18 2015 03:52 Damdred wrote: Actually id like to say a couple of things about ls, for the record IM at 65/35% that he's town at this point so I sorta don't want to vote him even if he is the counter wagon to me. The big thing that makes me doubt him is the way he's handling the situation with me saying id be ok with deadline voting ls and never doing so btw. The problem is that he is totally leaving context out of what he's saying in that I never called him scum but he was heavily hinting he could be martyr and my comment followed after rayns comment about pressuring him near start of the game. I find it a pretty crappy reason overall, and I'm effectively a lurker this game so I'm a bit surprised that he doesn't have a stronger scum read at this juncture. However one of the first things he does that make me go wow this is probably town ls is when he shows that vs meta to show how I go after him as scum. While its worth noting totally different concept and doesn't look the same at all I don't think I can see scum ls trying to call me out and help a lynch on me when I could ub afk and nail him to the wall. Plus he's been a bit more active then he normally would and seems pretty honest at this juncture. I think he has a decent shot at being town here so I really don't want to vote him. I'll read some more give more impressions. On September 18 2015 04:02 Damdred wrote: No clue poopyfeast. Your filter is sorta devoid of a lot of things that I would normally town or scum read you on. Your only real pushes or reads seem to be me+grail for yourself. And tour push seems to be the one who jumps on it while saying that I could be town or scum. So would be towards the bottom of null On September 18 2015 04:06 Damdred wrote: Honestly sand is someone who I could lynch today just because of the hard town read on me without any real reason to be town read. can you link me to your case so I can read it and give thoughts Here is a set of posts Damdred made when there was a big wagon on him and basically LS was the only counter-wagon. At some time before these posts Rels has made a case on Dandel. The thing is this kinda play makes no sense as mafia because you are basically trying to get lynched here if you are mafia. Damdred has obviously not read the case on Dandel before he makes his last post. That makes me almost definitely sure he has no team (who would tell him in scum QT that there is a case on Dandel he can save himself voting for). Instead of wanting to lynch LS Damdred stands behind his read on him. Now this could make sense if Damdred was mafia with LS, but then again, why doesn't he just vote for Dandel and "save them both"? It makes literally no sense Damdred is mafia here. The vote switch to Dandel becomes way more interesting given this fact, and even the push on Damdred becomes interesting here because every other person (me, geript, HtS) who are actually good at reading LS (sorry Damdred, but your tracking record on people who you are supposed to be good at reading at hasn't been.... quite good lately) thinks LS is mafia. I again think LS is the best lynch here. ##unvote ##DeadlineVote LightningStrike To add to the case on him, i have asked multiple times for him to play. He refuses to. Here is the kicker; If you are the exorcist, in case LS is town, there is literally 0% chance Damdred is mafia. So if this is the unfortunate case, you should be shooting James 100% of the time. If LS flips mafia and you don't have a shot, good. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 20 2015 09:19 Tictock wrote: Gosh looks like another really slow day. Damdred is the only person who hasn't posted since this phase started, which makes me wonder if he's waiting to see if anyone claims a check on him. Assuming all 3 dead thus far are town then that's a 3/10 chance the Inq is dead or about a 70% chance that he is still alive with a green check on Damdred. Give or take some certainty if the Inq is like minded to myself or Fidei and holding a redcheck. So ~70% chance Damdred is town despite him being one of the more scum read people this game. Is that enough to consider him confirmed town like rayn suggests? I'd kinda like to hear Damdred's opinions on the game before fleshing out my own thoughts on him more... I think at best I can consider him null right now. ugfh.... iam again caught to this post. this post is so fucking terrible. 3/10 chance that the cop is dead. really tictock? REALLY? omfg... | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
Damdred and Fidei have both been completely absent today, which makes it hard especially when Damdred has been heavily contested all game. Fidei I think at least has a decent excuse for putting more focus on his other game, but I'm thinking this makes him a solid check. [QUOTE] Why does this guy think Damdred can be scum but Fidei has a lower chance of being scum when; 1) BOTH of them are in two games 2) James has been posting in the other game, Damdred has not............. ..,................ . . .. ..... . .what? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
Except that it is the same post i made but with 100x more words. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
LS is mafia. He is most likely being lynched on D2 because of rayn is pushing him. LS has said he will claim (which is true about 100% of the time either alignmetn). Mafia team (whoever that is who has any fucking brain) tells him; "Hey LS, see, geript was this role here. You need to say that he visited you and you got his role, because it will give out another townie and we can then soup two people if someone claims, or hell, maybe someone even believes you over the other guy who cc's you". What does LS do? It's not like he has to come up with this himself. He has a fucking team who can tell him what to do. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 22 2015 02:43 Half the Sky wrote: Yeah I tried to break it down. The ONE point where I agree with him is why geript would visit LS and then that's what made me go back through LS's filter and I found something in LS's filter that makes him look really bad. He brought up something about geript RNGing who he'd visit so I just posed a question to LS now on it. The first half of Tictock's post was questioning the timing of LS's claim and doing it with little pressure. The problem with that sentiment is that LS as town is KNOWN for pulling that shit and known for losing his head as town under slight pressure. It has wrecked town before. That is what I tried to break down. The point is not if he is fakeclaiming as town. Because if he is town he is 100% not fakeclaiming. If he is mafai, however, that is the ONLY claim he is going to make (because it is based on geript's role whose role mafia knows 100%). Again, the problem with Tictock's post is that he is saying the exact same thing i did before. Just with more words. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 18 2015 01:55 Tictock wrote: Ok so checking back on LS. I felt like the way LS defending himself early was decent, and most of the arguments against him were based in meta which he provided counter-examples to. My issue when reading his filter though is that it is almost all him defending and answering questions. LS has very few reads, and only really pushes Damdred. Maybe I missed some posts but all I got from his filter was that LS is scumreading Damdred > geript, and that he thinks Rayn is town, and likes BM. The werid thing about his reads that Rels was pointing out is how he says this about geript before pushing Damdred. then When pressured to read me LS only comes up with null like he has all game, and besides this post I can't find anytime that he's trying to read anyone else. But LS ignored Rel's case about Dandel when he was around earlier. It also seems pretty clear LS has no interest in the grail vote. Votes for rayn without bothering to consider anything about the grail (or that rayn is voting for geript to have it). Posts this But then has no opinion about the grail when I asked him. All in all I'm not liking what I see. Rayn is probably right here. On September 18 2015 02:13 Tictock wrote: Ehh I honestly can't be bothered to make a case for myself getting the grail. Rels has a solid read on me this game though. I might be fine giving it to FF, but at some level he's doing the same thing Damdred did. However FF is at least showing he gives a few shits about this game. I'm not doing a good job managing me time, I think I'll have to cast my votes during my meal break at work. On September 18 2015 04:47 Tictock wrote: ##deadline vote Dande lon not only that his last "real post" is a case on LS... | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
rofl. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 22 2015 03:12 Half the Sky wrote: Well he should mainly because it's his primary scumread and others were also against him, enough support for a train... That's my point. He knows he is going to be at work by the EoD. He makes a big case on LS, yet he doesn't vote for him? It doesn't make any sense. Then, on D2, he makes numbers analysis. He calls Damdred 70% town because there is 3/10 chance the cop is dead. He puts apparently all his effort at the time to that thing, except we know dandel and geript FOR SURE are not the cop, so the correct number for cop being dead is in fact 1/8....... Like if you do number analysis i would except you to AT LEAST put effort to that. Then, he says, if me mislynch here bla and bla happens and then and then we are in lylo. But apparently he misses the fact that if we mislynch here there is probably gonna be a shot by a townie, which is incredibly likely to hit mafia. Again, if you do number analysis i would except you to AT LEAST put effort to that. And that's all he has "put effort into" on D2, except for copying what i said on LS-.- | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 21 2015 23:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: Rels has a townread on him. but he cannot lay out a single reason why he has a town read on him. He has meta points, he doesn't clarify them. He has also bad points that actually make more sense from scum than town perspective (see the middle of the quote below. Here is what he actually does say about him. None of this makes any sense because if Rels thinks TT is town, Rels should be arguing why he is town. It helps the town in PoE. I think it is more likely he doesn't actually have any reasons to think TT is town, because the reasons he has laid out are not really reasons... | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 22 2015 00:55 Tictock wrote: Eh I think they are both town, so not really worth mentioning. rofl. this gem. please explain. yes it's worth mentioning, if it isn't you would not call them interesting. so please do elaborate. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
On September 22 2015 03:51 Tictock wrote: I explained that I didn't leave myself proper time to play out that EoD as. I wanted. Also explained why I consolidated with the rest of town in my first post today. I'll prob ninja vote today too kus this is my only break before eod i think. no, you don't get to do this shit again when you haven't done anything this day phase. 1) Why did you not vote for LS while making a big case on him? 2) Why don't you put any thought into your number analysis or even check if you are correct? 3) Why do you 100% parrot me on LS and write 1000 words about it instead of sayign "i agree with rayn LS is the best lynch here"? 4) Why are you not scumhunting instead on (2) and (3) and not even doing that properly? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43266 Posts
I can somehow understand your response to (1). But you are either terribly wrong or mafia. | ||
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