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On September 18 2015 20:04 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2015 20:02 ritoky wrote:
there's not voting on moosy for town cred and voting on some rando -> ceph probably capable of this as mafia
then there's joining the other main wagon and pushing your partner -> not sure if capable of this do you think wile was ever likely to get lynched there? there was a lot of pushback against it. if you think your scumbuddy isn't going to get lynched, pushing/voting him (especially when you have zero thread sway) is v good strat.
i agree with you that it is a very good strat. and was wile getting lynched? hm...probably not with a decent # of people town shielding him there, but it wasn't completely outside of the realm of shennanies.
i don't know enough about cephiro to know if he is capable of that shit though is the thing. most people as mafia don't have the balls to make a high risk play like that. there aren't many people who play mafia who will do shit like i do where i ninja vote and basically claim mafia or where palmar calls for his team to shoot him in the night for cred. most people won't risk pushing a shennanie onto a partner 2 hrs from deadline d1 when there's easy alternatives. i am assuming ceph is most people cuz i know nothing about him otherwise.
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I am also wary of people pushing the cephiro lynch a bit simply cuz to me he is the only viable LHF lynch (with wile being mafia, and me and scott being confirmed) out of the remaining group of players. Not to say he is a bad player, but he hasn't played here in forever, he is low activity, and I feel many people can find excuses to read him mafia.
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On September 18 2015 20:11 marvellosity wrote:
think of him as a highly intelligent vet who likes making plays as either alignment and has been playing 4+ years.
evidence for the above: TL Mafia database.
Maybe I will go look into his previous games to try and inform myself more when I wake up later.
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On September 18 2015 20:17 marvellosity wrote:
we can lynch jat instead if you like
*braces self*
meh, if someone is mafia then someone is mafia.
that game we mislynched you d2 as town while you were hard-defending the other LHF (Onegu)... LHF is often just LHF because they are scum
to be fair, I was miller with a cop red check on me. i was fucked beyond belief, but yeah my reads were dumpster that game.
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On September 18 2015 20:23 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2015 20:21 ritoky wrote:On September 18 2015 20:17 marvellosity wrote:
we can lynch jat instead if you like
*braces self*
meh, if someone is mafia then someone is mafia.
that game we mislynched you d2 as town while you were hard-defending the other LHF (Onegu)... LHF is often just LHF because they are scum to be fair, I was miller with a cop red check on me. i was fucked beyond belief, but yeah my reads were dumpster that game. you weren't checked that game if i remember? anyway my point wasn't about the quality of your reads or anything, more the nature of LHF.
pretty sure koshi was the cop who red checked me n1? might not be remembering it right.
eh, we'll see i guess. guy has like 72 hours or more to actually post relevant shit to get a read from since this day is basically autopilot and then me or koshi is probably dying in the night. for now i am just gonna stick to my read until i go look at a past mafia game of his and see if there's reason not to.
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On September 18 2015 20:24 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On September 18 2015 20:21 ritoky wrote:On September 18 2015 20:17 marvellosity wrote:
we can lynch jat instead if you like
*braces self*
meh, if someone is mafia then someone is mafia.
that game we mislynched you d2 as town while you were hard-defending the other LHF (Onegu)... LHF is often just LHF because they are scum to be fair, I was miller with a cop red check on me. i was fucked beyond belief, but yeah my reads were dumpster that game. Your most important task is to figure out damdred because I am not able to lynch his scummy ass without you.
yeah, i'll do it later today if my baby is capable of sleeping for an hour without coughing and whatnot. but will 100% do it before EoN.
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On September 19 2015 03:56 Cephiro wrote:
Not planning on getting modkilled, nor do I plan on getting lynched or NK'ed. In the unfortunate case that happens, I won't be flipping red anyway.
##vote Wile E. Coyote
Still do think marv is a good lynch, but not in a hurry to do anything about it since we have "confirmed" scum to kill. I guess I'll post my thoughts on it during the night or later in the daycycle, depending on when I feel like it. (Or unless you people have a specific reason you'd want it any earlier, given that it's not currently very relevant.)
Doubt mafia wants to kill me with my current level of activity, would make sense for them to keep me around to try and push a mislynch on me later.
Someone was also asking about my scum play, whoever that was: I can do pretty much anything as scum (and town too). Bussing is more like a rule, with not bussing being the exception for me. At least when it comes to games where there are at least 3 mafia members. So while I won't mind if you read me favourably based on my voting and actions at the end of D1, you shouldn't think it has to make me town.
On September 17 2015 06:03 Cephiro wrote:
I have better things to do than explaining why I'm leaning town on Onegu at this point. I'd prefer him not lynched today, it doesn't look like it's going to happen that easily either. Instead of focusing on why I think onegu is town, you should be focusing on figuring out who you want to consolidate the lynch on.
I didn't give reasoning for saying I think one of Koshi/you are town either, same with Moosy, but you don't seem to be care about that at all. Just forget nitpicking for now and focus on the relevant stuff.
If you want reasons for my townreads, I'll give them later when they're relevant as I said I'd do with my opinion on marv (unless you all actually end up lynching me, which would be quite sad.)
can you stop stalling and promising shit, but not delivering and just post your reads?
there's only 10 people alive, 3 are confirmed town, 1 is confirmed mafia, and you don't have to read yourself. 6 isn't a monumental task worthy of stalling as much as you are.
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On September 19 2015 05:33 Cephiro wrote:
We lynch Wile, simple as that. Also I'd prefer to stay as a mislynch target for now, so I'm going to stay that way.
You know I want to get marv lynched (tomorrow), that's more than enough for now. You'll get the reasoning in due time. I don't see why I should be around talking about irrelevant stuff meanwhile. First we deal with the matter at hand, and then we move onto the next thing on schedule. I've seen flailing about instead of going for the obvious thing that should be done more than I care to remember.
because i have a high likelihood of dying in the night and won't be here when it is convenient for you. plus people who promise shit and don't deliver tend to be mafia. there's 0 way wile doesn't get lynched today so dunno what you're on about. the guy literally claimed mafia. just fucking post reads i can't read your mind.
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yeah i am being completely worthless, but y'know weekend + sick kid + #confirmedlyfe
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i started reading damdred's filter, first thing i notice: damdred and jat are probably never mafia together.
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also cephiro probably never with marv etiher.
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if damdred is mafia, he is mafia with palmar or geript.
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hold on i gotta get my thoughts together on damdred, then i'll hit up marv and jat after.
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This game is probably the game I am most unsure about damdred's alignment since the first game I played with him. The reason being that as I read his filter it reads exactly like a game a while back that I read him scum all day 1, then suddenly I looked at his filter N1 and I realized holy shit this guy is a PR. Which is essentially the read I had on him this game. I thought he was the other blue in the game (assuming this is M13 standard w/ 2 blues). Since he probably isn't blue I am gonna put him at 65/35 mafia. Maybe even 70/30. Which is weak for me cuz usually I read him like 98/2 as an alignment.
Why is he mafia you might ask? Well let's go on a path of discovery:
Tone:
Prior to me pointing it out to him during the game, Damdred was typing in the passive voice and in a very appeasing manner. He is more apt to curry favor with strong players in the game as mafia or in the very least not act as a roadblock to the stronger players. In a sense, he is more pliable. As well as he has a trigger phrase for me when he is mafia, he used it twice. Usually he uses it more, so it might be coincidence or he may have finally figured it out and is trying to level it.
Read progression:
2 reads matter to me here: 1) wile 2) onegu
Both are first mentioned here:
On September 15 2015 12:17 Damdred wrote:
I have 4 people I want to lynch into right now.
onegu
waffle
jat
willie
are the people I want to lynch into. 2 would be policy (oneg, waffle) out of those two I would go with waffle though.
Jat and wil, wile wins out his last few posts have just hit my scum radar hard. His long list post says a lot without a good amount of actual solid conclusions and his posts on geript just feel off to a point. Its like pushing scum on someone and trying to dig up.
like his last post just look at it just seems odd if he thinks geripts scum why would he care if he cares? Doesn't make any sense and just looks like scum trying to help slow push a wagon.
This read post is also worth noting because this is not usually where Damdred starts as town. This list is basically the 3 afk/LHF at this point in the game + JAT. Those reads also were almost directly a reflection of the thread sentiment at the time the reads were given. This is not usually the type of starting point for town Damdred; he is more apt to have at least 1 read very different to thread sentiment (usually on me LOL) and he tends to let afks/LHF have chances to post at least a bit or he prods them to post before putting them in a lynch list.
Now where do they go?
On September 15 2015 14:26 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2015 14:11 Wile E. Coyote wrote:
Whats odd about me pointing out geript saying scummy/anti village things. Stick to meta reads fello This is a classic example of you trying to discredit someone. You don't tackle the argument at all but attack the person instead. And geript you are being an idiot, the game in question you kept trying to interact and wait on me to give reads and it never came really. Here in rife with things to talk about but you fail to talk at all. I just don't get it, on one hand I can see town geript being stupid like palmar. But I don't see town geript not caring enough to do anything else. Bah.
Oh yeah, push that scum on wile baby, you're doing good.
On September 15 2015 14:26 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2015 14:13 Onegu wrote:On September 15 2015 14:04 Damdred wrote:
Oneg I sort of like you so far idk if I should trust myself.
And it is annoying that geript isn't interacting with me at all You trying to pocket me? It might be working. My pocket is big enough for you to sleep eat and vote in.
wat?
On September 16 2015 02:06 Damdred wrote:
I'm not sure if I want to push Willie today or not at this point moosey. I think he's decently scummy and you've summed up some of the problems I have with him nicely. Bit I have to think on that a bit more.
Gwript still somewhat troubles me some of the things he's come back with feel more towny than scummy today. I'm still leaning town on him.
I know the interactions between jat and rayn were interesting to me though. Its a bit hard to explain but part of it is that jat felt a bit toned down and trying to get along during the discourse instead of his generally fillterless self. This is going to be impossible for me to push probably but maybe someone will listen to me.
Besides that the post about jat finding wil scummy and instead of giving more thoughts on scummy thing aettles on talking about geript without a conclusion is interesting I suppose.
Scum read declining, boner declining.
On September 17 2015 02:32 Damdred wrote:
Hi, I'm going to cheat and talk a small bit even though I'm under orders to shut up.
1) Wil is still a decent lynch, his content lacks a bit of drive to find scum rather focusing on other side things it feels like. I would lynch him.
2) I still think warwaffle is scum here. If you look at his other newb games he does say some smart things and fights back at points. He does afk a lot though anyway so that's a negative towards it but never this much.
3) I still don't really like JAT, while he does seem more involved it just seems like he's not doing much in the way of actually being useful in his normal way. Throws a lot of dirt before settling gibes up on scum reads because they seem unlun hable today.
4) I might just sheep Marv.
but I'm here for some talki
Soft deflecting wile, wanting to sheep, wait....where did onegu go? he hasn't posted anything...where did he go?
On September 17 2015 05:21 Damdred wrote:
Wile is actual off the table for lynch today maybe...
I liked a feeling I got from him just now
Scum read -> hesitate -> soft deflect -> town read conf mafia....oof on that progression.
On September 17 2015 05:26 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On September 17 2015 05:23 raynpelikoneet wrote:
And Wile is never going to be mafia ffs. Yo add onto this there's this moment that just happened. He was obviously catching up in thread and he had this ah ha moment when he thought he caught moosey. It just seemed so legitimate and honest and such a town reaction. Pretty sure rayns right on him. But I think we lynch jat
reason being, an a ha moment wile faked while playing catchup, pretty meh reason. but one damdred might make as town too. but where's onegu?
On September 17 2015 06:02 Damdred wrote:
Jats the best lynch probably he doesn't care it seems pushed nothing all day.
onegu is a crapshoot at best. If we were doing policy we should of done waffle.
let's lynch jat! suddenly onegu reappears! wait, let's not lynch him -> let's lynch this other guy? why? both were crapshoots, one could even say waffle was more of a crapshoot cuz he had a history of being ML'd on d1. and also that makes me want to bring up another point. damdred loves tone and meta on day 1, but he also likes looking into past games of new players he is playing with for the first time or at least asking about them. he doesn't give a shit about waffle's history of day 1 MLs here...town damdred probably considers this at some point during the game.
lastly:
On September 17 2015 06:48 Damdred wrote:
Ritoky you wanted me to sheep you onto a total lurker vs someone your town reads generally think is scummy just fyi. Totally different situation.
@Marv jat pushed me a little but dropped it until rayn started waffling because of my geript progression. And activity low today.
I decide to yell at damdred for not wanting to go on onegu with me, and he yells at me for wanting to go for a crapshoot he was deflecting off....but 1 of his 2 lynch candidates was a crapshoot lurker as well (who also turned out to be blue).
While I think the read on Wile could come from town Damdred, it was his read that pretty much eliminated Wile as a lynch target day 1. I also dislike the slow downgrading of Wile's lynch status prior to the "a ha" read. It is clear that he is falling further and further down damdred's lynch priority even before he makes that read and that he is soft pushing the lynch onto some1 else before he fully removes him from his lynchable pile. The onegu read is the really strange one for me. It makes 0 sense to me if damdred is town. The literal only way I can see it is if he somehow managed a blue read on Onegu but he never said shit about that even after I shot Onegu, so I doubt that's the read he had.
Gathering string:
The best way I can describe how Damdred's town play feels deep inside me is that it feels like he is sitting in the thread gathering string from people. He just keeps gathering and keeps gathering, and I can see it happening and I am waiting for him to put it together and hand me a rope. But usually he doesn't hand me a rope, instead he hands me a box of condoms and town sexes me. To phrase it differently, Damdred town has culmination posts where you can see into his mind and understand how things came to be and how sexy he is and how he has this read that is so solid and you want to have sex with and that you never really thought of or fully put together. Damdred doesn't really have those culmination posts this game. He has some where he does certain things or explains things, but they lack sex appeal to me and quite frankly they seem to parrot others in a lot of ways.
Overall would I lynch damdred? Probably. Would I necessarily lynch him tomorrow? Probably not. I think his read on Onegu is so strange that he is a strong candidate for being a solo mafia alive and worlds of 2 are where you should be gunning for tomorrow. If damdred is mafia and has a partner it is probably palmar or geript. He barely interacts with Palmar all day 1 after the start, while Palmar keeps repeating his explanation on why he is TRing damdred. Geript because Damdred supposedly has a read on him but never really goes to any length to push it in any regard.
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Jesus I just wrote a book.
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Since I decided to spend most of my time and effort tonight writing an anthology on damdred I am going to give brief answers on some other people:
Cephiro - Would not lynch tomorrow. Probably the person I think is the most town of the unconfirmed. People may not like my reason, but I went back and glanced through his previous games and I think this read is okay enough for now until he delivers some posts. You may not like it, but I made it in a previous game, no1 liked it, and it was dead right. Cephiro and Moosy are around tied as the 2 leading wagons with only a couple hours remaining. Both re-enter the thread, and both sincerely don't want the other lynched and instead both try to push the lynch onto confirmed mafia Wile. To me, this is so town indicative. Mafia on D1 at this point is moreso in survival mode than make a sick ass play mode. I think Cephiro is likely town.
JAT - Wouldn't lynch for at least tomorrow. Was pushing Wile before the claims, was pushing Wile during the claims, was pushing Wile after the claims. There's something to be said for the guy trying the hardest while the thread is kinda dead being mafia...but I remember when I soft threatened to shoot him he basically told me to go fuck myself. He later admitted to not realizing I was softing (and me not dying or being rb'd in the night -> tinfoil) but it was a natural reaction to me which emanated from a place of town. The 1 thing he really needs to do is sit town and consolidate his thoughts into a single post. He has a 20 page filter than even someone who likes filter diving like me doesn't really wanna traverse. I would push him to consolidate tonight or tomorrow, but I wouldn't lynch him tomorrow at the very least. He is also very very unlikely to being with damdred.
That leaves the lynch pool tmrw as geript, palmar, marv, and damdred (although damdred could be world of 1 more than the other 3)
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Geript - could be mafia because last game him and i were town bros from like day 1. we had the feels. he doesn't have the feels this game. also he had that one crazy tonal shift post where he has not been angry all game and then suddenly goes off on some1 then back to calm. could be trying to manufacture some of his town fire.
Palmar - could be mafia cuz unremarkable. Like literally, usually he wows me with early reads...he didn't. I did some shit where I specifically interacted with him with my first post of the game making a shitty joke, cuz in down under 2 I did that, he basically wrecked my soul, then no1 believes him for some reason so I shot him n1 and then carried the game for mafia to the win. Like where were his sick early reads? Where is his sick wagon that is such truth it is undeniable? Where is my memory of shit he has done other than measure dicks?
Marv - I honestly don't read much of what he types and consequently don't have much of a read. I had a mild town read on him all game cuz he basically ignored my existence until he was forced to. We tend to do that to eachother after previous games. His filter is something I might try to conquer before the change of phase but it is pretty huge and I don't wanna do it now.
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On September 20 2015 17:28 scott31337 wrote:
Marv - I honestly don't read much of what he types and consequently don't have much of a read. I had a mild town read on him all game cuz he basically ignored my existence until he was forced to. We tend to do that to eachother after previous games. His filter is something I might try to conquer before the change of phase but it is pretty huge and I don't wanna do it now.
Marv plays well and he scares me right now with his play - he usually shows himself as town, and he does not done that this game. He scares me and I see it in your filter - but I know you are town and don't have an agenda. He's still #2 to me. Expand on this more if you have time before you die please.
#2 scum or #2 town? Also what exactly do you mean as shows himself as town? Like what were you expecting him to do that he hasn't, and what reference point are you using? I guess what I am saying is I don't have much of a read so I am willing to listen and read and absorb. But yeah I should have like 2 hrs before the deadline where I can sit down and focus, unless there is something more pressing I will probably use that on marv's filter.
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Also re cephiro.
I was all like: bitch post your reads
he was like: nah
then i was like: do it asshole
and he was like: nope, gonna stay in the lynchable pool, i am content here.
who the fuck does that as mafia? that's like level 4 mafia if he is.
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EPT
