EPTAnd I don't think Rels case is strong. Like yeah there are a few strange things, but I'd rather lynch the dude that hasn't shown up for 2 days in pretty critical phases or the one that has a D1 PoE list and didn't bother explaining the reads even if asked multiple times?
Newbie Student Mafia XIII - Page 103
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
And I don't think Rels case is strong. Like yeah there are a few strange things, but I'd rather lynch the dude that hasn't shown up for 2 days in pretty critical phases or the one that has a D1 PoE list and didn't bother explaining the reads even if asked multiple times? | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
I forgot sulf was still alive Noobking don't post a town case on yourself it honestly won't convince anyone put more efforts in your two planned scum cases that will likely convince more people you are town. Damdred I understand the reasons why you are saying noob is town but if he doesn't care why is he bothering to post at all its not like he is trying to drive a lynch it's literally just shitting up the thread. | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
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Damdred
15669 Posts
Prople do ot all the time because its shit to stop playing a game during crucial parts shrug. I think he's town and mages is scum so vote mages | ||
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Sulfurus
United States166 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
Would be willing to switch to NM (weird behaviour EOD2 + AFK now) or Sulfurus (not saying anything D3 then comes in to vote just after diso and damdred starts to push for NM). I agree noobking's attitude makes sense for a townie having a big plan. BUT noobking has said multiple times he had info he didn't wish to share to not harm the town. By this, I suppose he means he knows scott is fake claiming, and he knows who is the real cop. I may be mistaken though. So, @nookbing. Back in D2, I stopped pushing you because I thought you were cop. I won't do that again. I want you to explain what is that critical information. You're hiding behind that. I don't care if it harms the town or if you out the real cop. As long as you conceal that info, my vote will stay on you. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
- NM is cop - mafia!scott didn't rb anyone and claimed rb But the only way noobking would know this is if he was mafia with scott. Meh. Waiting for noobking answer. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
Like I said, ONE post. And I expect this will be the LAST time I compose any defense of myself. It'll take some hard work for anyone to come up with a NEW justification for how I can be scum, that isn't addressed in this post. So, since this could be the LAST time you see me defending myself, please read carefully. ruXxar, Rels, Scott, Sulfurus (whomever among you is Town)...let's see what kinds of responses you can muster. And if you find portions that can't be answered to, consider what that means. #1) Barakos flipped Red The fact that I expressed willingness to lynch Barakos on several occasions during Day 1 (and then followed through with it) is not the strongest reason why him flipping Red is Town-indicative for me. The best reasons are here: + Show Spoiler + My push on Rels makes no sense at all from a Scum perspective, now that we know Barakos was Scum. If Barakos had flipped Town, then fine. Me wasting all my time chasing after Rels could serve a Scum agenda. But if Barakos and I are both Scum? It does NOT. You [ruXxar] had your vote on Moosy, Ticktock had his vote on Moosy. Sulfurus had Moosy as a scumread, and so did someone else (Breshke, maybe? Not sure right now, and not going to look it up. The important thing is that there was someone else.) The Scum play there is to go after Moosy, instead of giving him the null-to-somewhat-Town read that I did. No one else ever listed Rels as a top Scum suspect. No one else ever voted against Rels. And two players said (in no uncertain terms) that they would not be willing to participate in a lynch of Rels. But I kept at it, instead of taking down Moosy, when all the while, my scumbuddy Barakos is over there twisting in the wind? No. and here: + Show Spoiler + If I had been teamed with Barakos, I would have either: 1) Gotten Moosy lynched in Barakos' place (which looked entirely possible, based on thread sentiment). or 2) Bussed the living snot out of Barakos. Pushing on Rels does NOT maximize my chances of getting a mislynch and saving Barakos. Pushing on Rels ALSO does NOT maximize my chances of getting Town cred when Barakos flips Red. My Day 1 play makes no sense, as a teammate of Barakos. The counterargument to these points was clear enough. That I couldn't just get Moosy lynched in Barakos' place if Moosy was ALSO on my team. And I long-admitted that if Moosy were to flip Red, these points would evaporate. But I don't think Moosy is going to flip Red. And if you do, you should at least wait and see it happen before you lynch me. If the Moosy/n00bKing team is a real thing, there will be plenty of opportunity to lynch me after seeing him flip, without ever putting the game in jeopardy. Otherwise? If Moosy flips Green, then the fact that Barakos flipped Red is strong evidence for my Towniness. This applies as well: + Show Spoiler + On July 26 2015 11:28 n00bKing wrote: Which I probably wouldn't say, if I were Scum, and knew that Barakos was about to flip Red. #2) Rels was roleblocked It's been hypothesized that I could have roleblocked Rels because I was afraid that he was a Cop that was going to turn in a check on me. I find this absurd, because Rels said that if he was the Cop, he would...turn in a check on me. And he offered no other suggestions to the Cop. Have any of you ever made a post like that as the Cop, and then turned in an action that was exactly what you said you'd do? I never have. And I've never seen anyone else do it, either. And I don't expect I ever will. "Common sense" says I won't. Further, it doesn't make any sense that I would spend Day 1 and Night 1 building a case on Rels, and then roleblock him, in a setup with a guaranteed Scum roleblocker and no Town roleblocker. It would undo all of the work I'd done up to that point to try and make him look suspicious, flushing all of that work down the toilet. It would also destroy my own credibility as a scum-hunter, because I look like a donkey for having scumread him all that time, once the roleblock makes him confirmed Town. People would be less likely to listen to who I think we should lynch, because I had been so wrong about Rels. This would make it harder to get the mislynches I would need to come back from the bad start. Scum does not give up control over future lynches just for the sake of WIFOM. Rels had indicated that although roleblocking or killing him WOULD be terrible for a scum n00bKing, maybe I would have felt compelled to do it anyway, just to avoid the threat of him being a Cop that was about to get a redcheck on me. He phrased that like this: Rels wrote: I agree that if you are mafia, it's bad for you to roleblock me (or kill me). BUT if you know there is a cop in the setup, you have no choice but to do that. Bad situation but wifomable > red check. But that's just bad math. Of course there is a choice of not doing that, even IF I think there's a chance that Rels might check me, if he were to be the Cop. Roleblocking/killing Rels has a 100% chance of being bad for me if I'm Scum, because of how him becoming confirmed Town wrecks my credibility as a scum-hunter. Yes, the red check would suck MORE, but Rels becoming confirmed Town absolutely sucks. 100% chance that it sucks. Whereas, the chances of Rels being Cop were only 10%. And the chances of Rels being Cop and turning in a check on me (when that's exactly what he said he would do if he were the Cop) are even less than 10%. If I'm Scum and lost Barakos on Day 1, I cannot do something that has a 100% chance of sucking for me. That's not how to make up ground. I have to take that less than 10% chance of Rels being the Cop and redchecking me (IF I'm the roleblocker and not the Godfather. Otherwise, that less than 10% chance is 0%.) So this is not a close call. This is not a tough decision. There is NO...WAY that I would roleblock Rels. Can't afford it. Why is Rels more likely to be the Cop than other people who suggested a Cop check on me, anyway? As I've outlined, he's actually LESS likely to be Cop than other players. But he certainly isn't MORE likely. So why roleblock HIM, when that's the only roleblock target that destroys everything I've done up to that point? As mentioned earlier in the thread, there were a total of 4 players who either mentioned the idea of me being a Cop check, or mentioned me as possible scum. They were: rayn, Rels, ruXxar, and Sulfurus. I made this post: + Show Spoiler + If I roleblock Sulfurus...eliminates him as a strong mislynch candidate. Sucks for me a little, since I had expressed some suspicion of him. If I roleblock rayn...no problem! This works great! He was the strongest advocate for the Barakos lynch, and was being townread pretty widely. If I roleblock you (ruXxar)....no problem! This works great! You were already being DumbTown-read pretty widely. If I roleblock Rels...it WRECKS MY WHOLE FUCKING GAME TO THIS POINT. If I am Scum, HOW on Earth did that roleblock target get turned in?!! And none of my accusers ever made a PEEP in response to it. NOTHING. Because there's no explaining how I pick Rels as the potential Cop to roleblock, over the others. It doesn't make any sense. The roleblock on Rels is powerful evidence that I am Town. #3) Rels was not attacked Let's venture into the fantasyland where I am Scum, and I think Rels could be the Cop, and I'm afraid that he might turn in a check on me. And I'm so afraid of it that I am actually willing to kill or roleblock him, even though it wrecks everything I've done in the game up to this point. In this scenario: Why not just kill him instead of roleblocking him? If I kill him, at least I don't have to DEAL with him anymore. If I roleblock him, then I show everyone that my scumread is Town, and THEN I have to put up with him coming after me again, after I've already battled against him for who knows how many pages. And when he comes after me again, people will lend INCREASED credence to his arguments against me, because of how the roleblock increases his Town Cred. Why would I do this to myself? I signed up for a GAME, so that I could try to have FUN playing it. Do you actually think that I enjoy having to fend off Rels and his BS for Phase after Phase after Phase? Does it sound like I'm having a good time, when I'm doing that? If I were going to confirm Rels as Town on Night 1, I would have just KILLED HIM, and roleblocked one of my other Cop suspects. (or roleblocked him AND kill him, in case he was the Veteran, since I would have known there was one in the setup.) The answer to why Rels was roleblocked but not killed seems reasonably straightforward to me. The Mafia wanted him roleblocked to wreck my credibility as a scum hunter, but they wanted him ALIVE, so that Rels vs. n00bKing would continue, since that shitfight had been one of the only bright spots for them, in a game that had started off terribly for them. #4) Rayn was attacked Night 1 This has some in common with the previous point, but if I had rayn and Rels as Cop suspects who might turn in a check on me, and I was worried about it, why roleblock Rels and try to kill rayn, instead of the other way around? I just outlined the reasons to kill Rels, and now I'll outline the reasons why killing rayn would be LESS attractive. Rayn suggesting me as a potential target for the Cop was, I believe, the first and only time he expressed any reservations about me being Town, through the first cycle. It seemed to me that he was pretty confident I was Town, and that the only reason he suggested me as a check is that he didn't want to have to be paranoid about me later. Maybe he was concerned that although I generally felt Town to him, there was a chance I had been "pocketing" him. Why do I say that he seemed pretty confident I was Town? Because of posts like these: raynpelikoneet wrote: Damdred town. Noobking town. Ruxxar town. Moosy town. Dis-something guy town. Barakos mafia. raynpelikoneet wrote: n00bKing totes townpile (is better than townpile). raynpelikoneet wrote: I also don't understand how anyone can scumread n00bking tbh. So, he was paranoid enough about me that he wouldn't mind seeing a Cop check on me. But I can be reasonably certain that at least I won't have to worry about him trying to LYNCH me on Day 2. Can I say that about Rels? Definitely not. Switching the targets of the kill and roleblock would make more sense, for a scum team with me on it. But I'm not on it. INTERMISSION On July 26 2015 04:32 n00bKing wrote: Come on, yourself. For him to tell rayn why he's scumreading him explains it to everyone else, too. Optimally, he would have already explained it when he first provided the read, but apparently, a lot of people can't be bothered to do that. There's nothing wrong with trying to convince the Town at large of your case by interacting directly with your target. That's what I've been doing with Rels, right? I'm not trying to get Rels to say "Okay, you're right. That's irrefutable proof that I am scum." I expect the other players to read what I'm saying to him. Ha, I told Damdred to come on himself. BACK TO BUSINESS #5) Tried very hard to save Ticktock After having long read Ticktock as Town, I went to great lengths to try and save him from the Noose on Day 2. Since Ticktock and I had played so similarly in so many ways, if I were Scum, I would be stoked to see him lynched ASAP, because his Town flip is Town-indicative for me. But the moment where I eventually say "alright, maybe he IS scum, I guess I'm okay with this lynch" just never came. I battled against his lynch to the end, which doesn't make much sense, when he's on the veteran player list, and keeping him around long-term could bite me in the ass. At this point, ruXxar likes to say that I went TOO far defending a Town player here, expressing willingness to lynch the uncounterclaimed Cop over him. But I must remind you that I specifically said I was not comfortable lynching Scott without a counterclaim, and therefore had THREE players that I wanted to lynch over Scott. Those three players were Sulfurus, NocturneMage and Breshke. And once Ticktock flips Town, those three players were the PoE list for Moosy, and Damdred, and disformation. All of whom are likely Town. #6) Displayed utter and complete fearlessness, with regard to a Cop check Most of the accusations against me revolve around the notion that I'm the roleblocker, and was afraid of being redchecked by the Cop. I'll touch on one of the ways in which my play has been MUCH more befitting for a Godfather (who knows his checks come back Green) than a roleblocker (who knows his check would come back Red). During Night 1, Moosy asks Damdred "Damdred what's your thought on n00bKing vs Rels?" And Damdred responds with: Damdred wrote: I actually think,that noob looks a lot worse because of it. Like I'm of pretty sure rels is town and this tunnel,just makes,me,feel meh. If I'm Scum who lost Barakos on Day 1, it is really important to not have Damdred thinking I look bad. He's an experienced player, who is also being townread by most of the other players. If I'm Scum, then whatever I'm doing that Damdred says looks bad, I better shut it DOWN. Now MAYBE I could keep going with it if I'm the Godfather. And I can try to pull a Cop check on myself. But I better not overdo it, or I'll just get lynched. This is a BALLSY move for a Godfather, to keep going after Rels. But it's a suicide move if I'm the roleblocker, and am THE ONLY player in the game who returns Red on a Cop check. And I kept going with it, showing zero fear of a Cop check, and showing zero fear of taking a hit to my Townie status. Because if Rels was Scum, I knew I was the only one pursuing it. No one is going to catch him any time soon if I don't do it. Behaving this way makes sense if I'm Town. Behaving this way MIGHT be okay if I were the Godfather. It MIGHT be okay if I knew it was a Vig setup. But I CANNOT behave this way if I'm the roleblocker and know it's a Cop setup. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
n00bKing = Town, folks. ![[image loading]](http://www.roflcat.com/images/cats/Deal_With_It.jpg) | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
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Rels
France13467 Posts
So post that fucking critical information and we can happily lynch scum after. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 31 2015 17:49 Rels wrote: Don't agree. Point 2 3 and 4 are garbage. Points 1 5 and 6 are strong IMO. Point 1 in particular is very strong is moosy flips green I think. 1 is stronger than 5 and 6. 3 is better than 4, I think. 3 is actually pretty good, unless someone really thinks that having a shouting match with a stranger while I'm trying to play a GAME is my idea of a good time. 2 is the strongest of them all, even over 1. I'll let you get away with not explaining why you think 3 and 4 are garbage. Why is #2 garbage? | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On July 31 2015 17:58 n00bKing wrote: 1 is stronger than 5 and 6. 3 is better than 4, I think. 3 is actually pretty good, unless someone really thinks that having a shouting match with a stranger while I'm trying to play a GAME is my idea of a good time. 2 is the strongest of them all, even over 1. I'll let you get away with not explaining why you think 3 and 4 are garbage. Why is #2 garbage? Two reasons: - even if some people were suspicious of you, I was the only one to clearly state I wanted to check only you. In particular I find it hilarious that you mention rayn was suspicious of you, then in point 4 you claim rayn wasn't suspicious almost at all - once again, if I was cop I would have checked you, so that less that 10% crap is wrong | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 31 2015 18:04 Rels wrote: - even if some people were suspicious of you, I was the only one to clearly state I wanted to check only you. In particular I find it hilarious that you mention rayn was suspicious of you, then in point 4 you claim rayn wasn't suspicious almost at all You being the one to state that you would check ONLY me makes you the least likely of the 4 to turn in a check on me. And I said that rayn was paranoid enough to be interested in a Cop check on me on Day 1, but not suspicious enough to want to lynch me on Day 2. That is reasonable. On July 31 2015 18:04 Rels wrote: - once again, if I was cop I would have checked you, so that less that 10% crap is wrong Maybe if you were the Cop, you would have checked me. But in that instance, you would NOT have TOLD everyone you were going to check me. Change the "less than 10%" to just "10%" and it's still a comparison between 10% and 100%. There's still nothing to really think about. I can't possibly roleblock you. Here, I'll get rid of the "less than 10%" for you: Rels had indicated that although roleblocking or killing him WOULD be terrible for a scum n00bKing, maybe I would have felt compelled to do it anyway, just to avoid the threat of him being a Cop that was about to get a redcheck on me. He phrased that like this: But that's just bad math. Of course there is a choice of not doing that, even IF I think there's a chance that Rels might check me, if he were to be the Cop. Roleblocking/killing Rels has a 100% chance of being bad for me if I'm Scum, because of how him becoming confirmed Town wrecks my credibility as a scum-hunter. Yes, the red check would suck MORE, but Rels becoming confirmed Town absolutely sucks. 100% chance that it sucks. Whereas, the chances of Rels being Cop were only 10%. If I'm Scum and lost Barakos on Day 1, I cannot do something that has a 100% chance of sucking for me. That's not how to make up ground. I have to take that 10% chance of Rels being the Cop and redchecking me (IF I'm the roleblocker and not the Godfather. Otherwise, that 10% chance is 0%.) So this is not a close call. This is not a tough decision. There is NO...WAY that I would roleblock Rels. Can't afford it. Answer to that. And answer to this: If I roleblock Sulfurus...eliminates him as a strong mislynch candidate. Sucks for me a little, since I had expressed some suspicion of him. If I roleblock rayn...no problem! This works great! He was the strongest advocate for the Barakos lynch, and was being townread pretty widely. If I roleblock you (ruXxar)....no problem! This works great! You were already being DumbTown-read pretty widely. If I roleblock Rels...it WRECKS MY WHOLE FUCKING GAME TO THIS POINT. If I am Scum, HOW on Earth did that roleblock target get turned in?!! Like I said, defending myself now is just copy & paste. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On July 31 2015 18:14 n00bKing wrote: You being the one to state that you would check ONLY me makes you the least likely of the 4 to turn in a check on me. And I said that rayn was paranoid enough to be interested in a Cop check on me on Day 1, but not suspicious enough to want to lynch me on Day 2. That is reasonable. Maybe if you were the Cop, you would have checked me. But in that instance, you would NOT have TOLD everyone you were going to check me. Change the "less than 10%" to just "10%" and it's still a comparison between 10% and 100%. There's still nothing to really think about. I can't possibly roleblock you. Here, I'll get rid of the "less than 10%" for you: Answer to that. And answer to this: Like I said, defending myself now is just copy & paste. Easy. I hate these maths stuff 'cause mafia is not a math game. But your math is wrong: I have 10% chance of being the cop. If I am the cop I check you 100%. Chances of check on you: 10%. XXX has 10% chance of being the cop. If XXX is the cop he's going to check you < 100%. Chances of check on you: <10%. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On July 31 2015 17:08 Rels wrote: Yo sleeping on all of this gave more some thoughts. Would be willing to switch to NM (weird behaviour EOD2 + AFK now) or Sulfurus (not saying anything D3 then comes in to vote just after diso and damdred starts to push for NM). I agree noobking's attitude makes sense for a townie having a big plan. BUT noobking has said multiple times he had info he didn't wish to share to not harm the town. By this, I suppose he means he knows scott is fake claiming, and he knows who is the real cop. I may be mistaken though. So, @nookbing. Back in D2, I stopped pushing you because I thought you were cop. I won't do that again. I want you to explain what is that critical information. You're hiding behind that. I don't care if it harms the town or if you out the real cop. As long as you conceal that info, my vote will stay on you. | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
First of all scum rb'ing rels wouldnt have known he would become confirmed town from it that only happened because rayn blocked a shot. If rayn had died and even if he hadnt been VT it could have been theorised that Rels is lieing and the person who died got roleblocked. So there goes that theory. Also I know what you are saying that a cop never admits who they are going to check. But there comes a stage when people break "the meta" and then do exactly what "noone does" hence you entire "rels wouldn't check me" stuff is extremely unconvincing and just because YOU think it is true doesn't really mean much. Im still kinda hoping moosy flips scum and his partner wouldn't let them concede but that seems really doubtful and it is bumming me out | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
Can you answer this. If one of Sulf or NM flips town who is mafia? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 31 2015 18:19 Rels wrote: Easy. I hate these maths stuff 'cause mafia is not a math game. But your math is wrong: I have 10% chance of being the cop. If I am the cop I check you 100%. Chances of check on you: 10%. XXX has 10% chance of being the cop. If XXX is the cop he's going to check you < 100%. Chances of check on you: <10%. Maybe you hate these math stuff because you're bad at math? You have 10% chance of being the Cop. If you are the Cop you check me 100% (horseshit, actual chance is 0.00%, but we'll pretend). Chances of a bad result for me: 10% If I roleblock you, chances of a bad result for me: 100% The result of roleblocking Sulfurus is less bad. The result of roleblocking rayn or ruXxar is hardly bad at all. The only disaster, is roleblocking YOU. n00bKing wrote: If I am Scum, HOW on Earth did that roleblock target get turned in?!! | ||
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