Mafia in the Himalayas
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Fidei86
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I remember that ritoky and Damdred both claim to be able to "soul read" each other. Really interested to see if either of them agree with what I've posted about the other. | ||
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In terms of people who were in HG, I think it's fairly well established that NHM has either undergone a character transplant in the last 24 hours, or has rolled town this game. The difference is night and day. Ritoky looks like the same as he was before - he mostly posted commentary on other people's posts last time, and it got more substantive towards the end of D1. IE, I don't think he has done much that is alignment-indicative yet, but the next day or so will be helpful. You seem similar to last game as well, but I don't give that too much credit because I hated how you played on D1 and D2 and D3 (obviously D4 you rocked pretty hard). That's not a pocket - I'm not giving you a town read, you're just clearly an experienced player and meta reads probably won't take me too far with you ("I shit on my meta", etc). But going straight into this game after the last one is quite a big thing - I'd just got used to reading you based on a certain set of interactions, and now I have to throw them all away. The reason for posting all this is that I'm acutely self-conscious at how I've played so far. I really want to contribute. I've got an hour or so this evening and I'm going to try and re-read some stuff and give some reads or at least post some useful thoughts. But please don't scum read me for genuinely being over-awed. | ||
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BF - He has been totally lost in a discussion about meta, whether people can change their meta and whether people have changed their meta. He's had some odd use of language (saying "musclin'", for example) which shows a level of attention to how something sounds that is scummy to me. His vote on HF was based on a single post from rsoult, and was justified by "I don't like that". He has also checked into the thread a couple of times to say he would be on later, but then hasn't delivered. His writing is quite dense and WOTy, even when he writes short things. Slight scum read - I would be okay with lynching him D1. ShoCkeyy - His intial read on Onegu is just weird. Claiming VT early says very little about your alignment. If asked, everyone would claim it. It's also the easiest thing in the world to change up. His list post was just odd - it contained no reasoning whatsoever, and was mostly just full of jokes. He also had RL excuses for why he couldn't be around, but then continued to post anyway. He then later says that he's not making up reads, even though he hasn't really given any yet. His reasoning about his activity resonates with me though - he essentially says that you can't measure alignment based upon activity alone. I'm getting a town-y vibe from the way he has responded to criticism. Slight town read. | ||
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I really hate this. He starts off by saying something pretty nasty about WBG (that he is self-important), and he says it in a snide offhand way. Moreover, the whole post just seems to amble around in search of a point, without ever finding one, and concluding that he does not have a read. His final set of posts are all just asking questions of people. I don't think this is necessarily bad play (and I guess I'm not one to talk about bad play ^^), but it feels kind of lazy - particularly because people in the thread haven't been very good at actually answering questions. It's sort of a good way to look like you're town, without actually saying anything, IN PARTICULAR because he never then follows up on any of his questions with follow-ups. It looks like pure filter-filler to me. I do agree with him that the rso/WBG fight was tedious as fuck. All his three "would lynch" candidates were mostly AFK, so they were pretty non-controversial. That's not really AI though, because I kinda agree that town is better off lynching lurkers who don't contribute, rather than someone who some people read as scum but who is posting consistently. His final two posts show a little more leg, but feel a bit light. Ritoky was right, I think, his reasons for his rsoult/WBG read was really lacking. However, I also agree with Ritoky that his response was honest, if not very impressive. If he was mafia, I would have expected him to protest a little more. Then again, if he felt he was caught in a trap, he might have recognised the best thing to do was move on. Finally, I should say that I HATE posts that are just "I don't like this". Scott did it all last game and he was town, but TT also did it and he was mafia. So it's not AI, but at the same time it's just annoying and it clutters up the thread. Say why you don't like something, or don't say anything at all. After all that, I give him a null read. Maybe on the slight scum side, only because he has been so reactive. | ||
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FWIW, I've decided to stick my vote on boxerfred. As I said before, I haven't really been impressed with his contributions at all. On top of that, since his filter is yet to make it to 2 pages, I feel he fits neatly into my Onegu-in-HG-inspired policy of LYNCH ALL LURKERS. | ||
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So, back to GB - he's posting, people can get reads on him, and those reads will only get stronger and more accurate over time. Worst case if we don't lynch him is that he's mafia and we catch him later. However, if we do lynch him, we're missing the opportunity to lynch a scummy lurker. If you let the lurkers live, they just turn the later days into a coinflip for active town. | ||
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On June 19 2015 05:25 LightningStrike wrote: Lynching lurkers Day 1 isn't optimal play when you can lynch scum imo. ... I mean, that's obviously true (to the extent that it's basically a truism). My point is that I don't think we have a very good chance of catching a scum today. This thread has been a dumpster, where most people who aren't involved in the OMGUS/tit-for-tat are probably just finding their strongest town read (for me it's Rsoult btw) and sheeping them. But at least if we lynch a lurker, we guarantee that we make it harder for mafia to keep lurking and blending in. I recognise that there's sort of a logical tension here - I'm saying that we should lynch lurkers, but I'm also saying that all this volume of posting is also seriously town-detrimental. I guess I'm just an optimist, as I think people will eventually run out of steam soon and then we can start having some actually quasi-serious discussions. | ||
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On June 19 2015 05:26 wherebugsgo wrote: so literally your only reason for wanting to keep GB alive is because there's potentially a better, lurkier player out there? Why don't you read the case on GB instead of using things that are not alignment indicative to get yourself off an actually good lynch? Also it's rather ironic coming from you that we should lynch into the lurkers. I would place you near the top of a lurk list if I had to make one. That's a fair point, but let me put it to you like this. I work 12 hour days a lot of the time. Sure, I can mostly keep up with the thread. But when it's back and forth nonstop, mostly with partially thought through arguments, BM, off-topic chitchat and otherwise, how are people like me supposed to get an edge in. I made four substantive posts last night on four different people and I don't think I got a single comment on them, really, except one from Brez. When I look at your back and forth with GB, I feel like I basically have to go back to the start of the game to understand where it truly came from, which is 90 pages worth of mostly trash. | ||
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That said, I'll go back and look over the GB debate again, since I should probably develop an opinion on it if it's all we're going to fight about for the next week ^^. I don't suppose I could be super lazy and ask you to give me a useful starting point (preferably one not before page 70, lol). | ||
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That last post really felt off to me. I've been the first one to complain about the tone of the game, but when I did it I was trying to be constructive ("stop posting so much, please, give me a chance to catch up!"). But what VA is doing in that last post is trying to drain the will of the town to keep playing. Four or five people (including ritoky, who I'm going to keep town reading up until he inevitably flips mafia, knowing my luck) have already said they're burned. Why would anyone who was town pile on? So that took me on to the filter dive. I have nothing to report. There's two pages, and literally not a single substantive post or comment. Nothing, in an entire two full calendar days (and one mafia 'day'). It's all pictures, one-line questions and general filler. No apparent attempt to understand the game, even on a bitesize level. I'm reading VA hard scum for this. | ||
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If you're town, some of the people who are disagreeing with you KNOW you're wrong/right (because they're mafia!) and therefore their responses to your thoughts may well make no sense. The people you DO want to work with you (ie the town) are probably not going to appreciate being called dullards, so you just lost influence with them. Obviously if you're mafia then w/e. In summary - if you're town, don't say shit like that. Otherwise, people might start thinking you're mafia. | ||
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Town read. In summary, the reason is that in HG we mislynched on the first night and I was the casting vote. We MLed the most active player who was actually trying to organise town. I don't think GB is being quite as bossy in this game as Kickstarter was in HG, but I read their posts in a similar fashion. | ||
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ESL is pretty fun you guys. I will be back tomorrow and ready to close this one out for town. | ||
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Yes, I am mason buddies with rsoult. We were hoping to keep it quiet until later, but my inactivity sort of forced it out of us. I'm at work atm, but I'll try and post some more substantive points later. | ||
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On June 24 2015 03:16 rsoultin wrote: Eh lol so many things wrong with that fidei lol >< i'll lynch either but he's either town or scum content to be lynched which is why I suggested mig I get why that makes ppl uncomfortable though :-( | ||
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The flame in the mason QT is real ;-) | ||
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I still can't quite work out why the mafia didn't NK GB last night though.. | ||
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On June 19 2015 07:08 Half the Sky wrote: Final Day 1 Vote Count boxerfred (8): GlowingBear (7): wherebugsgo, ShoCkeyy (1): LightningStrike (0): Holyflare (0): Onegu (0): Lohengramm (0): KelsierSC (0): rsoultin (0): wherebugsgo (0): Mig (0): Not voted (1): Lohengramm Slipping from the ledge, boxerfred has fallen into the abyss. Day 1 has ended. On June 22 2015 06:46 Half the Sky wrote: Day 2 Vote Count Lohengramm (10): Mig, GlowingBear, Damdred, VayneAuthority, rsoultin, ruXxar, Fidei86, Holyflare, Breshke, ShoCkeyy GlowingBear (2): ShoCkeyy (2): LightningStrike (1): Onegu VayneAuthority (0): Holyflare (1): Mig (0): Onegu (0): Clinging to the ledge, Lohengramm hangs over the abyss. Day 2 ends in at 22:00 GMT (+00:00). The voting thread is here. Only votes in the voting thread will be counted. On June 25 2015 06:56 Fecalfeast wrote: Day 3 Vote Count Holyflare (2): GlowingBear (5): VayneAuthority, Mig, Holyflare, LightningStrike, Onegu Mig (3): ruXxar, rsoultin, Fidei86 Damdred (0): rsoultin (0): Not voted (2): ShoCkeyy, Damdred Clinging to the ledge, GlowingBear hangs over the abyss. Day 3 ends in at 22:00 GMT (+00:00). The voting thread is here. Only votes in the voting thread will be counted. | ||
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As an opener, I assume we are all onboard with lynching Mig and HF? I recognise that there is a very minimal chance that HF is miller/was framed, but given that it's a red check from the confirmed cop, I think the odds are much better there than they would be with anyone else. Mig is a no-brainer, given that ritoky was suspicious of him (and this feels a lot like what happened in HG, when rit was suspicious of TT, who was mafia), and also the whole GB green-check bait. If people really aren't enthused about posting, we can play it out until then, as the NK's will further narrow the pool. | ||
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On June 25 2015 06:48 VayneAuthority wrote: Btw, ruxxar is confirmed town since I saved bugs/his slot n1 Just bumping this post, since I missed it the first time around. | ||
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Anyway, everyone needs to vote for HF. If he's unlucky town, we can all put it down to experience. But I'm concerned about the people deflecting off HF. I think Damdred is a strong scum at this point for trying to deflect off (and also for playing this game utterly differently from HG). The third is up in the air, but I don't think it's LS or Ruxx. | ||
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Next game I say we policy lynch him at the start. But this game, I don't think that's the play. | ||
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@Ruxx I say we lynch HF, then Damdred, and then whoever's left can decide whether or not the last lynch is Shockkey or Onegu. I'll be long dead by that point anyway. | ||
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And obviously Mig flipping doesn't doom you, since you're STILL here and I'm STILL having to convince everyone to lynch you. | ||
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Everyone else - we have a RED CHECK from the CONFIRMED COP on HF. If you are town and you're not sure who to vote for, that should be more than enough for you. Don't let HF's consistent insistence that he is town fool you. | ||
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I'm not moving my vote, and I urge everyone else to please do your duty and vote on the red check. | ||
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Town: Ruxx LS Me Scum: HF Shock Meh: Damdred Onegu I'm going with Damdred over Onegu because Onegu is useless in every game, whereas Damdred was specifically very helpful in his last game, and has been rubbish in this game. | ||
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So all I have to rely on is this - with 13 town at the start the odds of you being picked out as the miller are 1/13. Even now, and assuming there is a miller, they are still 1/4. Furthermore, the odds of there both being a framer, and they having framed you on that night, are surely much lower. than 1/4. Therefore, to my mind, the statistics say that you're mafia. Given that I don't really have any good reads on anybody, I see no reason to colour the raw statistics with my own personal bias. You don't have to like it, but there are my reasons. I won't be saying them again, as clearly there is no point in reasoning with you either way. | ||
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Haha. I got the numbers wrong *facepalm* I think NHM is town, because of the early game. Totally different to HG. Worthy of a win if it turns out you're actually scum. | ||
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On July 01 2015 02:35 Holyflare wrote: like seriously i've put in a solid like 4 cycle game where i've been trying to solve it at every single juncture and you're being a prick and going "lalalalalala don't care red check", you know how fucking mad that makes me? i'm the towniest guy in this game WITH a red check and everyone is calling me town and you don't give a shit because your 2-3 game knowledge of mafia suddenly makes you superior than the ~20 players in this game that know me far better? i even took a day off work just so i could make cases on gb so that you would lynch him after my flip, no way i am that dedicated as mafia Stop whining and grow up. This is a game. It's not personal. | ||
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However, lynching him is a 50/50 shot for confirmed town who aren't me (assuming you're all happy I'm confirmed town :-) ). He's done nothing alignment indicative at all. Given that you're happy to submit to the coin flip on him, not sure why you're so outraged about me wanting to lynch you based on statistics. | ||
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On July 01 2015 04:21 Holyflare wrote: So you're just going to ignore everything I said and post even though you complained I wasn't doing anything.......? That's pretty insulting. This is getting tiresome. If you're mafia, you'll do anything to discredit me. If you're town, I can see that this would be frustrating for you, but getting mad at me isn't helping. I don't respect your push on Onegu. I think it's an attempt to push an easy mislynch. When I was talking about policy lynching Onegu, I meant that he was ruining games by turning his alignment into a coin flip. I didn't mean you were ruining games. | ||
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I think Shockkey is very likely scum. He has spent basically his entire filter ripping on LS and defending himself. Highly unconvincing. Then again, that could just be how he plays. But if people won't lynch you, I'll have to follow my dead teacher and mentor in going on Shockey. | ||
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On July 01 2015 04:43 Holyflare wrote: Guess who has also done that. Onegu. Guess what makes shockeyy actually more likely to be town than onegu? His participation in the actual game and yes, while he is discrediting LS it looks like he believes what he is saying. Can you say the same thing for Onegu who is pushing ls for something that doesn't even make sense? Shockeyy has posted lots of things in hidden url's in posts that I don't think he would do. On day 2 when GB was claiming cop shockey was constantly posting hidden things saying that if GB switched to him then GB is confirmed scum because GB read shockeyy as town all the cycle. Shockey has also got 6 times the filter size of his largest mafia game. Shockey does not have a red check on him but there is a vast expanse of information that makes Onegu likely mafia that you aren't even looking at because "he's a coin flip" Shockey's filter is six pages long. If his average filter length is one page, then either he gets MLed day 1 a lot, or he's a really bad played. | ||
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Can someone check whether ritoky ever gave a read on Damdred? He was a relatively early NK and he and Dandred claim to "soul read" each other. | ||
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Look at the posts leading up to the Shockey lynch. In particular, look at how Shockey describes Onegu. People talk about bussing all the time in lylo. But here we're in a slightly strange situation, where we were 5 town and 2 mafia. The chance of a mislynch is higher. By the end Shockey is begging everyone to move to Onegu. I do not think it is realistic that the mafia do not attempt to start a single town wagon all day. I just don't buy it. That means that one of HF and Onegu must be town. However, I don't see that HF and Onegu can possibly be on the same team, since they were both trying so so hard to get each other lynched. It is possible that there is some sort of weird bus thing going on that is too next level for me too understand. But Occam's razor suggests that the most likely explanation is also the correct one. Here, the most likely explanation is that HF and Shockey are mafia together, with a third (one of Damdred or Ruxx), and that they were desperately trying to get a mislynch onto Onegu to win the game. That, and HF has been wrong about literally every lynch we have had. He fought for GB's lynch even after there was super strong evidence that Mig was the better lynch. He said that the game was over if we voted for Shockkey. The reason I think it is Damdred is that Damdred keeps deflecting off HF. He's done it twice now - once on the whole red check thing, and once on the bit where I pointed out that HF was continually wrong about everything. It's Damdred and HF folks. It's that simple. Keep voting them off after I die. Thanks. *drops mic* | ||
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Also this can be done by process of elimination: NHM and LS move onto Shockey, even though I'm desperately trying to lynch HF. No way they're scum. I'm town :-) We have the save on Ruxx from the start, plus the fact that WBG was literally the spammiest poster on day 1, which I guess is town indicated. Plus Ruxx has put a lot of work into his reads, particularly early on. That leaves the scum team as including Onegu, HF and Damdred. No way that HF and Onegu are on the same team, and HF's close alignment to Shockey makes it seem much more likely to me that they're on the same team. Therefore it's HF and Damdred. *re-drops mic* | ||
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If you're mafia, that's acceptable, because ... you know ... you're trying to convince everyone that I'm wrong. If you're town, then it's just sad. | ||
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But the fact that you discounted it so quickly is concerning to me. It surely *has* to be considered, otherwise what is the point of even having a cop? Even if you think there are other things that are more important, to just brush it off is pointless. | ||
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It's hardly idiotic to deflect. We might not have noticed the deflect. And it's contributing to the growing sense in town that we should ignore the red check. Obviously if you and HF are the scum team, you want to downplay that as much as you can. If you're actually town, maybe you just think that. But the point I'm trying to make is that we don't know whether to believe what you're saying or not, because you might be mafia. So we have to evaluate what we see on its face. | ||
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:-( | ||
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Fidei86
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The voting pattern on the last day makes no sense to me. We were 6-2 up until the end. We ended up 5-3 but I don't think Damdred's vote is alignment indicative at all, because I might have switched too if I hadn't been in dota at the same time. If HF is town and Onegu is town then the Mafia all last minute switch to Onegu and win (it's the most recent person to get to an even score, right?). So at least one of them is Mafia for sure. More later, meeting friends. | ||
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On July 02 2015 04:19 ruXxar wrote: Maybe... I'm not really sure what to make of the push on onegu. It did seem kind of artificial how they were yelling each others names so loudly and trying so hard. It felt really forced in a way. This. | ||
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On July 04 2015 08:14 marvellosity wrote: i mean i don't mean to be flippant or trite about it. but emotionally destabilising / discrediting town members is a totally legit mafia strategy. if mafia can get town to tilt (without rulebreaking) then that's great for them. edit: take it as a compliment, it meant he felt he needed to do that to you I accept that. I'm still new, so give me a moment. | ||
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Also - LS, why move to Damdred? I just don't understand | ||
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On July 04 2015 17:54 KelsierSC wrote: you know he was mafia right and won the game? I think you need to grow a thicker skin and stop complaining about game length and people being rude. The early spam was a key reason why town lost. | ||
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