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On May 25 2015 15:28 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Or shockey is his scum partner? ShoCkeyy might be scum. This is a possibility.
I doubt this because given the thread state and thread activity, mafia simply will not bus here. It's just the last thing they want to do. Almost everyone finds it very hard to play scum, and they don't like posting as scum. When the game is in the bag, it's best to just go win it while you can and not force yourselves to play another day.
I think this largely clears ShoCkeyy as town. If you disagree, I hope you agree that I've shown why he could be town here, and why lynching him is risky. And I hope that what I have said, combined with the case I will soon (hopefully) make, will show why Damdred has a very good chance of being scum. Lynch Damdred now, take the easier scum now, worry about ShoCkeyy another time.
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On May 24 2015 01:14 GlowingBear wrote:
I think the team is Damdred / Shockey / The Shining.
Regarding Damdred, summed up to the points I've brought earlier: he has no intention into getting organised with town. I'm saying this because Damdred points out I am tunneled in him. But if he knows I'm town, instead of showing me how I'm wrong and actually trying to work with me, he prefers to call me bad and tease me. It's just uncharacteristic for town Damdred to do something like this. If he has me as town, I'd expect him to try to work with me, and not berate my reads. He limits himself to discredit all my reads, all my gameplay, instead convincing me my other reads are also wrong and that Zealos is a better lynch. This is scum causing confusion and discrediting townies, trying to disorganise town.
I will NEVER change this read on Damdred. But Damdred has a big filter. That's all he has for call him town. And there are some attempts to read people that could be coming from town. COULD. But if you evaluate his overall gameplay, you will see an uninspiring filter. Tell me what are Damdred's scumreads after Zealos flipped scum. I have no idea. Requoting GlowingBear's case on Damdred. This should do for a start. The main point is that while Damdred has a lot of posts, his tone is different from his general town play (ignore the stupid Assassination comparison, other games work too) where he's willing to cooperate with people and work with them. Here, he's been very abrasive and he hasn't said that much content based on his posting.
I get it, ShoCkeyy is scummy. But Damdred is basically a sure thing.
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On May 25 2015 15:32 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I'm not sure the "incriminate Shockey" theory works either. If shockey got lynched and flips town, what happens when we inevitably have to look at Zealos? Then Zealos looks scummy. But again, the thread sentiment was very much against ShoCkeyy, and more varied on Zealos. If Damdred gets the harder mislynch (Zealos) earlier, it's easier to get the next mislynch (ShoCkeyy). This makes sense even more from the perspective of a tired Damdred who doesn't want to play scum any more.
For an example of this, look at The Shining (regardless of The Shining's alignment).
Going into Day 2, The Shining puts ShoCkeyy as scummier than Zealos. But in the end, he votes for Zealos instead of ShoCkeyy for a weak and weird reason (to avoid voting with me). The Zealos lynch was simply harder to make happen for scum than the ShoCkeyy lynch, and that's a reason for scum to force the Zealos lynch through while they can.
Does that mean that ShoCkeyy is town? Of course not. But it explains why mafia would play this way with both Zealos and ShoCkeyy being town.
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On May 25 2015 15:42 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Btw, this is why Onegu should have saved his vig shot instead of yolo shooting scib on the off chance that he was actually mafia somehow.
I might have said this already but it bears repeating because of how annoying this game has become without him. Yeah, but it's water under the bridge 
It happened.
And after the recent thing with Bill Murray randomly shooting town on Day 1 as scum (Assassination Mafia), I think that Onegu would be less inclined to do this as a mafia vigilante. That's mostly why I think he is town.
Let me do my FPL trades and I'll see what I can do (but I need to wake up in barely over 6 hours, I won't get to do all that much). If you (plural, to all townies) don't agree with me now, please come back before EOD, I'll try to get out a better case tomorrow if it is necessary.
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On May 25 2015 15:58 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I'll read it in the morning. Either post it now so I can check it and see what's up or post it later, but I'm heading to work 2 hours before EoD and I'm not sure if I'll be able to check the thread properly during that timeframe.
I'll try as usual but idk. It would be great to have you here at EOD, I could really use the help. But I understand.
Sorry you have to work on Memorial Day Weekend.
I'll make a post tonight. You can read it whenever. But please, just trust me on this. I need you to vote Damdred.
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Damdred
On May 22 2015 03:41 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm extremely lazy to build that case on Damdred, but I'll sum up the points I may be working upon:
1) Not wanting to give a read on me based on early games' lack of information, instantly giving palmar a town read without even revisiting it.
2) The most important: giving a town read on Vivax throghout the whole day1 but ending on voting him in the end. Gave scumreads on obi and Zealos. Never engages Zealos. Never votes for obi. When obi was with aot of votes, Damdred orefer to vote Vivax, a town lean, arguing that Palmar's case was very good, which couldn't be read as that in Damdred's perspectice because: Palmar's main point was Vivax raising suspicions on Damdred but never doing anything with it. This is not purely logical - part of this argument is associative. If Damdred is town he should realise this is not a strong argument. Second point of Palmar's case is about vivax making a lot of random suspicions and reads, something that Damdred TOWNREAD VIVAX FOR. So this point shouldn't be enough to convince Damdred. Last argument on Palmar's case was Vivax inactivity, which EVEN PALMAR SAID WAS A WEAK ARGUMENT. And Damdred uses this to JUSTIFY HIS VOTE ON VIVAX, but only after OBI STATES INACTIVITY IS ALIGNMENT INDICATIVE. He simply parroted obi. If inactivity is a problem for Damdred, WHY NOT LYNCHING ZEALOS, HIS ORIGINAL SCUMREAD, WHO ALSO WENT INACTIVE??? Damdred raises a lot of suspicions on Zealos but NEVER really does anything with it.
3) When I talk about a VIGI shot on Damdred, he instantly claims "blue" (without even saying what his role is). This makes no sense from a blue's perspectice because: (i) I was the first one to raise suspicions on him and it was still early night1. If he has an important role, it's way more important to try to establish your innocence while discussing with people, and not claiming being a power role instantly because he could be killed by Mafia, and (ii) it doesn't make sense to claim he is s blue without giving his role unless he is afraid of being counter claimed. So, saying he is blue is a safe way to stay away from a Vigi shot in a closed setup game.
His blue claim wasn't a townie wanting to establish his innocence to avoid having town wasting a bullet. His blue claim was a survival one, coming from a guy who doesn't want to get shot by vigi but isn't afraid of getting shot by Mafia.
First, I'll requote GlowingBear's case. It's good. Though I don't agree with scumreading Damdred for the quick Palmar read.
Point #1: Lynching Vivax
See GlowingBear's case above.
Point #2: Tone
Damdred doesn't seem like he wants to work with people this game. He's frustrated and annoyed, not calm and constructive. For someone with this many posts, and someone who is normally as constructive and cooperative as Damdred, this is very suspicious. GlowingBear explained this:On May 24 2015 01:14 GlowingBear wrote:
Regarding Damdred, summed up to the points I've brought earlier: he has no intention into getting organised with town. I'm saying this because Damdred points out I am tunneled in him. But if he knows I'm town, instead of showing me how I'm wrong and actually trying to work with me, he prefers to call me bad and tease me. It's just uncharacteristic for town Damdred to do something like this. If he has me as town, I'd expect him to try to work with me, and not berate my reads. He limits himself to discredit all my reads, all my gameplay, instead convincing me my other reads are also wrong and that Zealos is a better lynch. This is scum causing confusion and discrediting townies, trying to disorganise town.
I will NEVER change this read on Damdred. But Damdred has a big filter. That's all he has for call him town. And there are some attempts to read people that could be coming from town. COULD. But if you evaluate his overall gameplay, you will see an uninspiring filter. Tell me what are Damdred's scumreads after Zealos flipped scum. I have no idea.
First, Damdred makes several pregame posts about being excited for the game. He seems happy. And his happiness vanishes starting from his second post in the game, and makes a lot of posts where he is either upset at GlowingBear or scumreading him (but never mentions a scumread.... for the purposes of this argument we assume he is upset, which looks better for him).On May 18 2015 08:05 Damdred wrote:
I'm not sure how i'm lacking motivation lol? But he's not lacking motivation? Already, Damdred is being extremely inconsistent with his tone and his happiness, which is more suspicious because he is used to being scumread early on (he was surprised that he was townread early in Assassination Mafia). This doesn't make sense from a town perspective.
On May 25 2015 10:01 Damdred wrote:
I'm honestly spent with this game. From GB tunnel to my ultimate town read being an idiot and calling me scum when I'm making a play so nobody looks at either of us and the game is poed down to obi, shockey and oats.
I really don't care if I get lynched tbh scum can get this win I could care more.
However just so people know trfel is wrong in most games have two power roles, most of the time its three with a possibility of four depending on the wrakness/strength of the roles involved.
Just lynch me get this game over, the most active player got tunneled by confirmed town and now we are probably going to lynch me or who knows. Ok probably voting for qwerty or whatever and hope shockey is scum Idc First of all, he's simply wrong about the number of power roles in a normal game. See GlowingBear's standard game setup, designed to get a standard game, with only one blue (13 player game). See the Student Mafia setup, designed to make a basic game simple for newbies to follow. Look at any examples. Damdred knows better than this. Furthermore, Damdred's tone is very frustrated and upset here.
Meanwhile, look at some of his other posts. His frustration isn't consistent. He even went so far as to try and "make a play" by claiming mason with The Shining, and he nearly has the game solved by Process of Elimination. The frustration doesn't fit with the rest of his play.
Point #3: Blue Claim
GlowingBear touched on this earlier, but Damdred has done more since then. And it's extremely scummy.
Damdred claims blue initially for basically no reason. Okay, he's done this before as town.
For the moment, let's ignore the possibility that this is a special fake-claim play, and assume he actually is blue.
Then he finally says that he is a mason, but won't claim his partner for a terrible reason. This adds confusion with no gain, it's scummy, and serves no purpose. From here, he backtracks out of his blue claim.
As a play, this didn't accomplish anything. If Damdred really is this close to solving the game by Process of Elimination, he should be excited enough to have the thread presence to convince people of his reads (he's the best player left in the game). And he should be able to explain his read well enough that we accept it. And he shouldn't need to fake claim mason to help support this read. Furthermore, he knows that this makes town more suspicious of the other blues (Onegu and Stutters), and he isn't suspicious of them himself, so by potentially averting town suspicion from The Shining, he moves it to other townies, which doesn't help.
Furthermore, this is just never a good play, but it's very weird from Damdred, who is a very analytical and logical player. Damdred wouldn't do confusing plays that restrict town information.
The only final possible motivation is that Damdred is doing this for fun. But he's not having fun. He's been seemingly frustrated for much of the game, as is evident from his filter. He has the game nearly POE'd, but is giving up and saying that he doesn't mind if stupid townies lynch him. If Damdred is somehow still town, despite the inconsistent tone, then he'd be still in this game out of necessity, not will. And he wouldn't want to try and make a play to win the game, he'd be doing the minimum.
Point #4: Posts Without Content/Conclusion
On May 18 2015 05:31 Damdred wrote:
I'm not sure what I should be getting by his opening. Nor do I understand why you are queing on mine but its what it is I suppose GlowingBear (somewhat faked) scumreads Damdred for his opening post, eventually leading to this quote from Damdred. But he's not bothering to say anything about GlowingBear's alignment at all, he's just criticizing and complaining.On May 18 2015 05:48 Damdred wrote:
Sorry no reads or leans on the first 15 posts of the game. Company policy And then he dodges the question when GlowingBear asks it. Damdred clearly isn't townreading GlowingBear (Palmar is his first town read of the game), and says that GlowingBear is making false suspicions, casting doubt on him, and overblowing his read, but doesn't say anything about GlowingBear's alignment at all.
Here's a quote from Stutters695 further explaining this (emphasis mine):On May 24 2015 03:08 Stutters695 wrote:
Damdred - I still think he's scum. If you're town, please read my case and evaluate it on your own. If he doesn't die and continues paying like he is lynch him. This is not up to his level of town play. I didn't mention this in the case, but he keeps saying Assassination doesn't count because of the post restrictions, but if you look at the posting amounts, he's averaging a similar number yet nowhere near the analysis or effort towards solving the game. I'm trying to not use meta when there is enough to actually read someone, but food for thought. I'm not going to go through and look for all of the examples, but please feel free to do so yourself. Damdred normally provides a very content-dense and analytic filter, post restriction or not, but this game doesn't show it.
Conclusion
Damdred is scum. If you don't trust me, trust GlowingBear. If you don't trust GlowingBear, trust Palmar. If you don't trust Palmar, read Noir Mafia Chapter 3, where he caught WaveofShadow with an instant scumread for a seemingly weak reason, and then caught his partner yamato77 off of a Day 1 association case and other things, while not putting any effort into it at all.
I can't say for certain that ShoCkeyy is town, though I suspect that to be true. But Damdred is almost certainly scum, and he needs to die.
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I've said about all I have to say.
But I find it interesting, for how much Damdred apparently doesn't care if he is mislynched, he seems to be caring quite a bit here.
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I feel that ShoCkeyy's latest series of posts have actually been fairly towny.
His arguments aren't great, but his reasoning is there, and I can understand why he arrives at the conclusions that he does. He also genuinely feels like a towny getting mislynched in MYLO, but he sees a potential way out and he's working towards it.
Meanwhile, Damdred is ignoring the arguments that have been presented against him and is instead attacking the people who scumread him. I don't know how the fact that I've used the same arguments as other people (including a flipped town) can possibly be scummy, that's the only reasonable thing for a town player to do in this situation. I'm not trying to be a hero and show how much work I can do, and how amazing my reads are, I'm simply trying to lynch scum.
I also don't understand why Damdred is so defensive of his early read on Palmar, while he is very heavily scumreading me for realizing that Vivax was likely town. The situation was largely similar. Town Damdred knows that once in a while, people (even worse players like me) see things that he doesn't, and knows that this doesn't make them scum.
Stutters is almost certainly town. I won't lynch him.
If you want to go ahead and lynch ShoCkeyy, I can't stop you... but it's a mislynch.
Onegu, Obi, let's win this game.
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On May 26 2015 03:48 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
What has Damdred ignored? He hasn't explained how his blue claim wasn't clearly harmful for town. Especially since he claimed masons with The Shining after the night ended.
He never explained why he didn't even attempt to draw conclusions about GlowingBear's early play, even upon request.
And I mostly don't like his explanations for the rest of the stuff.
If this were a bus, you would see people pushing ShoCkeyy more. You would see scum doing a little more to ensure that they actually get credit for the lynch. The fact that you don't really have anyone pushing ShoCkeyy says that this is a mislynch. Before I started posting, there was nothing at all. Now, there's really only people saying that they don't want to lynch Damdred.
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Also, ShoCkeyy didn't vote in the voting thread.
I feel that this is again slightly more indicative that he is town. Partly because scum would have QTmates to shout at him. Mostly because this suggests that he isn't just putting in a token effort and letting himself die, or he would have voted. His recent posting feels motivated, and I can't imagine that someone in such a bad spot as him would get motivated enough to post like that as scum, when your team is almost certain to win anyway.
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On May 26 2015 03:58 Damdred wrote:
Trfel not reading the thread?
I've answered all of those things? I'm not talking to you after this post.
You're scum, you're not posting constructively. You HAVE NOT answered these things, if you have, please go quote them.
Last night, after I posted my scumread of you, you ignored the arguments and started posting attacks without basis. I won't let you get into a pointless fight with me, the goal is to solve the game, and that can't be accomplished with useless bickering. If you want to actually converse in a sensible manner, please let me know.
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ShoCkeyy, please vote in the voting thread.
On May 26 2015 04:03 Damdred wrote:
You piggy backed everyone's points against me and posted them as your own you haven't read the thread I've explained almost everything 10 times.
ObiWanShinobi, can you not see how he is twisting things here? He hasn't quoted any of the answers that I asked for, which he claims to have already given. Instead, he's accusing me of claiming other people's arguments as my own, while I haven't claimed a single thing on my own. The only thing that I'm claiming is a desire to get Damdred lynched.
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Go ahead and throw the game.
I'm very disappointed by Damdred's lack of willingness to talk about anything worthwhile, but far more disappointed by everyone else failing to realize that he's not answering any of the points against him.
On the bright side, the game is done. That's pretty nice.
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Onegu, I've identified the scum team with a very good chance, I've explained why, and I've explained why ShoCkeyy is a mislynch, and all you want to do is lynch me without explaining any of it. I've explained why my play makes no sense as scum, and the reasoning is clear and obvious.
If you're actually going to lynch me for this, then I don't know what to say. I've been more productive in the last 12 hours than you've been this entire game.
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On May 26 2015 04:51 Damdred wrote:
Good god trfel if you are town you are being an idiot i have 100% answered everything against me This is completely false, for example. Is it not obvious?
I asked two questions on the last page, based on recent events, that Damdred didn't answer at all, and the answers weren't in his filter.
I doubt that Damdred can provide even ONE example of a 13 player game with 3 strong blue roles, much less the 5 total blues that he was hinting at with his mason claim. Can he explain how this is possibly good for town, how this outweighs the downside?
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Onegu, you are literally the worst player I have ever seen.
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Sorry
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EPT
