EPTNewbie Student Mafia IX - Page 4
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On May 05 2015 08:03 Superbia wrote: On another note. Holy shit these hosts are fucking fast and awesome. I particularly like the links to every vote made and vote change. Super convenient. | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On May 05 2015 08:08 Tictock wrote: Not sure it woulda made any difference, but now I feel like a fool for being wishy-washy and wasting some time. Maybe, maybe not. The only thing I didn't like about the scott lynch was the fact there was no other train going on. That's either indicative that either the train is overwhelmingly and blatantly mafia (which is what I was sure of, considering I was leading it and posted that huge damn post arguing for the lynch a little ways back) so that opposing it is too risky or that the train is town and thus mafia don't care. A different train much earlier might have helped give more information. But then again it may not have. No way to know now. I'm more wound up about the fact that it completely shatters my nice little story of scott and Superbia working together, hence potentially giving us easy day 1 and day 2 lynches of two mafia members. Now I'm probably inclined to look much more on Superbia as town given his posts leading up to EoD including the attempt to get an alternate train moving, even if it was too late to make a real difference. That being said...risk of me going full WIFOM here. Maybe that's what he wants me to think and it was deliberately left too late. Or maybe etc etc etc. >_> | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
scott31337 (8) : -Celestial-, sicklucker, disformation, Half the Sky, y0su, FecalFeast, The Shining, Stutters695 Half the Sky (3) : Superbia (X), ritoky, prplhz, Superbia disformation (1) : scott31337 prplhz (1) : Tictock We now know verifiably that scott is VT so we can ignore his vote (although I'm going to go back and re-read his arguments against disinformation). I get the feeling that there won't be more than two mafia on the scott train. There was no chance of him not getting lynched so there was no reason to pile on there to guarantee it and spreading people around is safer. Tictock threw his vote away and tried to justify it. I've done that under worse circumstances as a mafia; but I also would have done so under the circumstances it happened as town as well. That being said I still don't like it. I'm going to have to go back through his filter and look at the arguments against prplhz there. The HtS train is Superbia, ritoky and prplhz. Either Superbia is a master manipulator (entirely possible) or I think he's probably town at this point. If I start going into the "but he deliberately started that train too late to matter" thing then I'm going to end up in a neverending loop of "but this but that" so I'll just take it at face value that it was honestly meant until I totally re-evaluate his entire filter. ritoky has been all over the place, I could still see him as scum but he was already my weakest read and frankly now I don't know what to think. prplhz is looking really bad in my books. I wasn't planning to filter dive right now but I brought up his filter to just check over the post he made when he voted scott and he has literally a one-page filter. Most of which is just junk and vague sentiments. His vote on HtS feels incredibly throwaway, kinda OMGUS over her read on him. I'm not going to talk about any of the scott votes until I've properly filter dived everyone and re-evaluated everything. Probably sometime tomorrow. | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Given everything at EoD and the fact scott flipped green I can't put Superbia as my top D2 lynch anymore. I'm planning to re-read everything later but my first impressions are that its far less likely he's a red. I'm really not buying what Tictock has been trying to sell lately. The more I think about it the more "convenient" it looks for him the way everything fell. The guy he voted for wasn't anywhere near getting lynched and it was super last minute so it wasn't even as if it was stubbornness refusing to change his vote. He could have put that on damn near anyone and then tried to cover it up and given that a VT got lynched by a clear majority it might well have gone unnoticed. I'm also really not liking prplhz at all. Again, the more I think about it the more uncomfortable I am. I already pointed out my problems with him last night and time away hasn't made those concerns go away. The Stutters and Superbia thing just feels really town on town to me. Superbia brings up legitimate concerns but Stutters' response to them feels all wrong for him being a mafia. Its a bit of a tone read but he just seems too relaxed about it for him to actually be concerned here. HtS...the jury is still out on her. The hard part is having actually played on a scum team with her I've seen how good she can play scum so even if she appears to be the towniest townie who ever did townie I'm still likely to be suspicious. That being said at first glance I'm not seeing a lot in her posts that I can particularly put a finger on as being scummy. | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On May 06 2015 02:14 ritoky wrote: -c-, i don't understand your hts read. why aren't you leaning town on her? she basically has the exact same reads as you. I already mentioned why in my post above. Simply put: I know from personal experience she can make a good job of hiding as scum. A few pages ago Superbia asked for my thoughts on HtS and my conclusion was the following: Okay, overall...fairly townie BUT seems to be taking quite an easy route of it. She's doing some of her own work rather than just sheeping but most of it is largely uncontroversial. Its typically just a continuation of what other people have said rather than anything hugely bold; although she does bring up a few fresh new points. I'm not really convinced of scum but given how smart I know HtS can be as scum from the last game its always a possibility. The whole thing of not particularly rustling anybody's feathers bothers me just a little. Though that could be simply because she came into the thread late. Obviously there's been more since then. I WANT to townread her but honestly this game I'm not sure she's ever going to get better than a null from my own inherently suspicious bias. Sure, some of our reads are similar but I don't actually consider that to be outright alignment indicative in and of itself. I'm not perfect (as the egg on my face from pushing the scott lynch so hard can attest to) which means its entirely possible she's simply picked up on reads I've gotten wrong and is going along with it to fit in. Or she might genuinely believe it. Or she might think that I might think that and.... I'm drifting into WIFOM territory here. >_> | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Tictock - At best a very dirty null here, but honestly I'm not uncomfortable with putting him on the scummy pile for now. He's not got much of a filter but let's see what we got. Firstly he makes a pile of excuses, hammering away about the fact he's a newbie, and then just drifted about saying that he wasn't sure what to make of any of it. His initial reads are towning me and scumming scott (both extremely easy calls to make) without really adding anything as to why he feels that way. Then he wavers on FF which is less in line with the thread. There's a bit of a back and forth about that while he posts a pile of null and town reads on literally everyone else. So his only feeling is towards FF and it seems to be a weak one. In fairness he does worry away at the problem a bit and doesn't leave it to rest but he also doesn't really stick his head about the parapet for it. Preferring to occasionally throw up concerns without really driving anything. Okay since FF was pretty much universally townread at this point I can see why a newer player would be hesitant to do that but come on...its' your only scumread at this point. HtS turns up and gets scumread for...well I think for a pretty bad reason. He actually lies a bit here about what he said previously by claiming that he was getting a scum vibe originally, despite the fact his earlier post stated that he had "no real reads" on Superbia. So he's trying to pretend that he's reversing course on a previous red reading, despite not having made that red reading. Proof: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/483492-newbie-student-mafia-ix?page=24#477 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/483492-newbie-student-mafia-ix?page=29#563 Other than that he throws an easy to make scum read on prplhz (who had done basically nothing at this point) and made excuses for scott on the basis that scott seemed "calm", despite the fact scott did basically nothing to try to demonstrate that he was town. Then calls out inactives. He posts that he doesn't know who to vote for, now he's saying scott is appealing and then says he's tempted to make a case on prplhz but that there isn't enough to go on. He argues that the vote on scott felt too easy but still isn't voting on anyone. He makes excuses for his reads on Shining and Super (despite the fact that his only read on Shining is "I have no real read". Then tries to pull information out of scott who is totally off the radar at this point. Turning up like two minutes before the deadline he posts a bunch of stuff about how he now doesn't like the scott train and that its allowed a bunch of people to get away without pressure because of the focus on scott. To which I ask why weren't you pressuring them, then? He then throws his vote away by voting prplhz on the basis that he's posting crap and just jumped on a brand new HtS wagon. Post-flip he's upset about having not voted much earlier...despite the fact it absolutely was not clear which way he was voting in that post. Furthermore he goes on about how he doubts the scott train could have been stopped and yet...I've just checked the votes and timestamps and assuming I'm not misreading this at the time he was umm-ing and ahh-ing over prplhz and scott, scott had two votes and sicklucker had 1. That's hardly an out of control train there. He makes a bunch of excuses about the wasted vote and is trying to justify it. Then claims he had the same opinion about 12 hours before EoD (despite the fact that that post said he wasn't sure what to do). Sorry but this whole flow of events looks pretty bad. There's nothing overt, but as a whole I don't like it. Conclusion: His flow of events is horrible here. He beats around the bush all day being fairly inconsistent and then jumps in with moments to go with a completely wasted vote. Dirty as hell. y0su - Singularly unmemorable for me for actually doing anything which is worrying in and of itself. Filter diving him a fair few things set off alarm bells. Has a three page filter with virtually nothing concrete in it. First page is just a bunch of blabbing. Excuses at the top of the first page and no actual input. Then asking game-related questions about how d1 lynches work out. His first post of actual note is him complaining that the biggest back and forth is me and scott. He talks about how my first post bugs him, does a bit of WIFOMing and then says it doesn't feel town. But concedes that I have some decent points. Then starts going on about an "uneasy feeling". But his conclusion is that he doesn't want to vote either me OR scott. With the amount of information so far I'd have expected SOME kind of conclusion here and he doesn't bother to push anyone or anything for more information. Just sitting back. Then starts asking MORE questions about how the game goes. More stuff on me and scott here. He's just rehashing stuff here. Asks frivolous questions and makes frivolous comments. Finally decides to ask someone something directly by lobbing a softball at FF about ritoky; then starts questioning sicklucker about how I was coached last game and as which alignment (which is weird because it's something I've been open about all game, I'm surprised he didn't pick up on it). Makes some more empty comments about the case on scott and yet goes back to his "strange feeling" on me. And asks about ritoky again. More talking about not wanting to weigh in on the scott vs me thing. Then back to ritoky who he seems really interested in despite the fact that he's not actually trying to push at all. HtS finally calls y0su out on all these airy-fairy "feelings" about me and pushes him on it. The responses are okay I guess but non of it seems alignment indicative. It's all very "well this doesn't feel quite right". More and more talk fluffing about whether or not to believe whether my argument is genuine or not. Finally comes in after EoD talking again about his uneasiness of the scott wagon and asking about scott's vote and is now weakly commenting on disinformation who is being pressured by other people. Conclusion: His beating around the busy is worse than Tictock and yet he seems to have gotten away with it, largely I think because he's posted more. But something like 90% of his posting is very vague and trying to be inoffensive and not draw attention. Hell there are hardly any reads in here at all. The only people he seems to have scummed to any extent at all are me, ritoky and recently disinformation. But it's always full of qualifications and "but oh I don't know". Perhaps hiding below the radar whilst still pretending to contribute? He looks really bad but as a new player I'm not entirely sure that's not down to reluctance to just get stuck in. That being said if I don't see some actual effort soon this is going to go entirely red. disformation - I'm not really buying the recent pushes on him honestly. Not reading him super town but leaning that way. Comes across as the earnest newbie type and I don't think it's a facade. His entire filter is full of asking appropriate questions and prodding at people. Doesn't really come across as particularly afraid either. Picking at things that don't seem right too, even if his inexperience shows a bit sometimes. Conclusion: Doesn't read mafia for me. Not all of his posts are great but I don't see enough scum markers in them to set off alarm bells in my head. ritoky - My thoughts shortly after the flip were as follows: "ritoky has been all over the place, I could still see him as scum but he was already my weakest read and frankly now I don't know what to think." Since then hs'e been going pretty hard on people which I like a lot more. Enough to pull him back from the scum leaning I still had. Conclusion: Looked awful to me for most of D1 but is looking a lot better since the flip. Could probably lean town pretty soon if he keeps it up. The Shining - I like most of his earlier stuff. Especially his response to the HtS thing. Posting very openly. But seems to lack attempts to push on people. Talks a lot ABOUT people but doesn't seem to be pushing on them very hard. Seems mostly to ask questions when people have started to push on him which I don't like too much, thus preventing me from outright townreading. What hurts massively is the recent inactivity too. Conclusion: Mostly looks alright but I'd like to see more pushing on people and actually getting back in the thread to address issues. Half the Sky - I already posted my thoughts on reading HtS earlier here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/483492-newbie-student-mafia-ix?page=47#939 Conclusion: I don't think I'm in a very good spot to make a judgement on her because I'm pretty much biased into being suspicious. I'll have to give it way more thought than the time I have here (I want to post this before EoN in case I get shot). I'd very much appreciate seeing other people's views on her to help with this. Superbia - I didn't like a lot of his stuff early on at all but it gradually progressed to a really good place lately. So he's gone from fairly deeply red right back to null. I particularly like the fact that he didn't like the fact that there was only one train for the vote. He's calling people out for crap they posted and isn't afraid to ruffle some feathers. I don't actually have time to read his entire filter in detail right now because its massive (nine pages) so my thoughts might change once I've done that in full. That said I couldn't D2 lynch him at this point anymore. Conclusions: Can't townread yet, but has made up massively for what I felt was a fairly suspicious early game. FecalFeast - Town although sometimes he seems a little TOO laid back because nobody seems to be pressuring him. Regardless he's poking at the right things, questioning people and isn't afraid to take people on. Conclusion: If he isn't town I'll be very, very sad. prplhz - Already posted about this last night and literally nothing has changed since then. Number one lynch target as far as I'm concerned. Conclusions: See this post for my thoughts on prplhz, such as they are: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/483492-newbie-student-mafia-ix?page=45#881 sicklucker - Lots of nonsense posts and one-liners. Made the "I don't do day 1" excuse. That said I honestly don't read anything so far as mafia. I hardly read anything at all actually here. Seems kinda laid back so MAYBE town but without actual posts to go on...*shrug* Conclusion: Needs to step it up, but for now I wouldn't be comfortable lynching, not until I've seen D2 play. If he continues like this it'll just be straight red here. Stutters695 - First page of the filter doesn't contain a huge amount. Another one making excuses by saying "I'm bad at D1" which is something I really, really don't like. Opens by stating he's okay with a sicklucker vote on the basis of HIM not doing D1 which was a bit weird for me but does provide kind of a reasoning behind it (he only said he's bad at D1, not that he's not going to play at all). Pokes a bit at prplhz for things that don't sit right which I like a lot. Eventually goes with the scott lynch. I'm very eh about his play as a whole, he makes comments on people and doesn't really push very much but isn't afraid to stick his neck out a bit and is rather more decisive than other people playing more passively. That leans me back towards a town leaning. I'm leaving this at null for now. Makes some actual reads when pushed for them and does engage properly. I don't think he's a good D2 lynch unless he doesn't start showing some more assertive play on D2. Conclusion: Despite my dislike of the "I don't do/am bad at D1" excuse it does somewhat tally with Stutter's actions here. He's trying somewhat but doesn't really have anything special to add it seems. Tentatively leaning town but I want to see a lot more before too much longer; seems to be doing more than sicklucker anyway. Requests: y0su: hard reads on everyone. Now if you please. No more of this messing about waving your hands and going "oh I don't know". There's plenty in this thread to get some idea at this point, so no more excuses. Tictock: same goes for you. Also I'd like to know why, if you felt the scott train wasn't good, did you not try harder to pressure anyone before the deadline to find a different wagon to get rolling? Stutters and sicklucker: Okay you "don't do day 1" or you're not good on D1, same thing. Either way its Night 1 now and D2 coming up. Please start showing something impressive or I'm just going to start assuming that you're scum trying to hide from actually doing anything. Everyone: If anyone has thoughts on HtS they can summarise cleanly I'd like to hear them. | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
When it going to the forty five minute mark and was only writing the third one up I knew I'd have to speed up quite a bit. >_> | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
| ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On May 06 2015 10:23 Stutters695 wrote: Where is everyone else? Probably asleep its 3am where I am right now. Glad to see Tictock has finally posted a set of reads. I'll have a look properly tomorrow because I'm going to bed myself right now. If y0su doesn't freaking post a set pretty damn soon though I'm probably going to throw my vote on him just on general principle. He's given us basically no reads at all all game. | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On May 06 2015 16:13 y0su wrote: Half the Sky beyond "holding my hand" - for which she got T (as it seems very town beneficial) Just a small note here: I wouldn't take that as alignment indicative myself. As far as I can tell for the most part she's just guiding you through your thoughts on me which could mean: 1. She's town, and wants to get you onto the same page as other people. 2. Me and her are scummates and she's deliberately guiding you away from me. 3. She's scum, I'm not, and she's trying to curry favour with me since I was being heavily townread. At least that's how I'd read it in your position. So basically it could mean anything. As for the FF kill I'm not sure that's going to tell us anything. FF was townread by basically everyone at this point. He was never, ever getting lynched but he was also not exactly driving the thread onwards which made him an easy shot with no real fear of a doctor save. Anyway, y0su finally got some damn reads up so now my attention is on those who have hardly posted throughout D1. And on prplhz who looks really, really dirty in my view. I could get on a prplhz wagon at this point honestly. I don't really see anything to redeem him at the moment. Then again, that's how I felt about scott... On May 06 2015 16:49 sicklucker wrote: If im a cop I have a green on hts Is this a drunken claim? If it is then that simplifies things a bit (though I dunno, game has a Godfather in it...). Although if its supposed to be a more generic statement then I agree that HtS should probably have been the cop check if there was one last night. | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On May 07 2015 00:44 sicklucker wrote: Oh super claimed rb? Hes very likely mafia now I will vote him. From my experience mafia will claim rb like half of the time regardless of the setup so im always suspect of the roleblock claim. But when theres a vet in the game (There is 50% of the time in this set up but mafia knows what setup were in) mafia will always roleblock whoever they nk because if you roleblock your nightkill then the vet power is neutriled. So mafia will know there is a vet because they are told the setup and will have roleblocked ff if its a veteran setup 100% of the time. Also meta wise supers one mafia win that I know of was my very first game. He claimed roleblock that game too and rode it to a mafia win. Let me ask the host if rb goes through vet power in this setup but it usually does. Told ya you should have killed me super I like this logic. On May 07 2015 00:44 Half the Sky wrote: Looked at a few more filters. Celestial, I looked at your latest list post. I'm going to ask you the same thing I asked Stutters. prplhz appears right now your top lynch. Let's say that prplhz disappeared or more realistically, he was replaced for whatever reason, hypothetically. 1 Who else would you lynch? 2 Have your opinions changed on tictock? 1. Probably y0su. Sicklucker has actually done some interesting things past few pages so now I think everyone on my "you need to do something tangible" list from my last big post actually HAS done something which gives me a little more to go on. Of all of them y0su was looking pretty bad at the time of my last wall of reads. Since then as far as I can tell his grand total contribution has been a couple of comments on how being wrong does not automatically equal being mafia and a handful of reads which basically amount to "everyone is green lets all be happy happy" except a very weak toneread on Shining. This is despite me basically outright telling him he's GOT to be more aggressive and assertive to avoid a red reading he's not done so yet. He's not pointed a finger at anyone for being scum and he's not been asking any questions or prodding for responses. I think he's gone off to sleep now but I mean come on...we're approaching half way through D2 and he's got a short filter with absolutely nothing of real value in it so far. He's full of excuses and explanations for his behaviour but has shown no change. He's getting away with absolute murder here and I don't like it one bit. That being said...I'll have to think on Superbia some more. sicklucker has some good points here. 2. Still not a huge fan, his posting has improved a lot but it took a fairly big effort to get those reads out of him. Wouldn't want to lynch right now though without fully reviewing his filter. | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Gah, now I don't know. I had Superbia as playing kinda scummy and had a tentative correlation with scott. Since scott flipped green I guess I've been mentally going easier on Superbia (especially given the huge amount of effort he's been putting in and the aggression which looks very town) but looking at this conversation going on here... | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I mean come on...I just looked through his filter and to me it reads as follows: - Got a bad feeling about Shining. - I'm not going to post much this game. By the way what do you think about Celestial? They're sticking out a lot. - I was out, I'll read when I'm back. - Oh god deadline! I don't like the scott train. Some apparently meta-read based on lynchings from other games. Ooooh that Celestial person bothers me; don't like scott train. HtS is scumreading me based on my Shining comment (basically the only thing that could be construed as a direct read by prplhz on anyone to that point); oh me oh my why me? OMGUS. Voting on her! - Meta meta HtS. Plus elaborating on the fact that he doesn't like that he's being scummed for something other people have done. (Neatly glossing over the fact that it was virtually ALL he'd done) - I won't be around for EoD. Oh by the way you need to push HtS train. - Stutters, Superbia has a good question, answer it. What were you doing at EoD? - Stutters is my new target for that. - Tictock looks bad for the wasted vote. Stutters looks bad for his lurking on EoD. HtS is still scumreading me for the only thing approaching a read I've really made up to this point and I don't like that. But she's right I'm OMGUSing people. I'll start trusting my town reads (what damn town reads?) and start looking at other people. - ritoky has a good point on Tictock though I'm not sure. - Excuses excuses because of tunneling some guy in some other game. I'm unsure about Tictock like I'm unsure about Celestial. - Tictock still looks bad for his vote. - I'm reconsidering again. FF was town as I expected (like goddamn everyone did). Excuses about tunneling in a different game again. I think HtS is scum because she said I'm scum because of one of the few things I actually did despite other people doing the same (ignoring the fact those other people have also done OTHER things to go on). And because something metagame something. I'll go take a look at Stutters' meta from other games now. But Superbia and ritoky are definitely town (which is an easy thing for him to say since both of you have been calling him town forever). - We probably have a doc because Superbia was roleblocked so there's no veteran. - Why are you reading HtS as town, Superbia? That is his ENTIRE filter summarised. There's nothing of value in there. Hardly any actual reads with his strongest push being to vote HtS with less than an hour to go, an argument that (in my opinion) is fairly rubbish and then ask other people to push it for him. What I do see is a ton of waffling about doing very little, no real effort to pressure anyone and a guy quite happy to sit in the little cocoon that you've constructed for him by reading him town every time you provide reads. This is despite the fact he's done nothing that I can see to deserve that read. I mean...are we even talking about the same guy here, Superbia? What in the name of god makes you think he's so hard town? And provide quotes please, not this "his reads match mine" thing you got going. Quote the actual things he said and why they're town. Because honestly having just made this post and reviewing how bad he looks here I'm inclined to just vote him now and be done with it. | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
##Vote: prplhz | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
His "reads" D1 as far as I can tell amounted to a bad feeling on Shining, a bad feeling on me and an OMGUS on HtS which turned into a wagon after you picked it up and started pushing. As well as a bunch of rambling about how he just didn't like the scott wagon, but never actually seemed to specifically read scott unless I missed it somewhere. His strongest "push" was him saying that someone ELSE needed to push the HtS wagon with around 40 minutes to go here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/483492-newbie-student-mafia-ix?page=38#749 You seem to be giving him a totally free pass for doing virtually nothing at all. | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
Where the hell was he in that time beforehand if he really felt that strongly? | ||
|
-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
But prplhz is just...bright crimson right now. He's done nothing but lurk and try to pretend to contribute. And yet Superbia has been hard town reading him literally the entire game because "he's thinking the same as me, making the same reads" despite the fact he's made virtually no reads at all. Seriously just wtf. prplhz looks terrible and Superbia's constant defending is honestly weirding me out. I almost think it would be worth lynching Superbia right now because of that one thing. | ||
| ||
