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On March 27 2015 09:51 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 09:49 Vivax wrote:On March 27 2015 09:47 Trfel wrote:On March 27 2015 09:44 Vivax wrote:
9 3
7 3
5 3 - > mylo, no lynch pls
4 3
Still 2 mislynches and 1 no lynch left so it isn't looking bad at all, just try to keep the activity up when the pacemaker townies get NKd and scum should start losing stamina, besides they will have inreasing trouble keeping their story consistent with earlier posts, so try to bank on that. Well hm, you're wrong on two points. It's currently 9 vs 3. But it's night. 8 vs 3 6 vs 3 4 vs 3 So don't hit MYLO, and can't no lynch. However, no lynching is disallowed anyway. No, one NK one mislynch, town goes from 9 to 7. One NK one mislynch. Town goes from 7 to 5 Etc. It's currently 9 vs 3. One night kill, and one mislynch, so 7 vs 3. One night kill, and one mislynch, so 5 vs 3. Then if we no lynch (which isn't even allowed), it would be 4 vs 3, and the night kill makes it 3 vs 3, and we lose.
Ah right made a thinking mistake on the last part :<.
Anyway I'd like to see some good cases on people today. I'll be in a more sheepy mood tomorrow given that I don't go nuts on Slam.
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On March 27 2015 09:37 Trfel wrote:Let's assume that Fecalfeast is mafia. This means that his case on LightningStrike was a bus. The argument for Fecalfeast being mafia is that his case reeks of too much information, and is caused by LightningStrike's desire to not play the game any more. Therefore, the majority of the mafia team would join in on this bus. This is one minute after Fecalfeast posted his case. This is the next vote on LightningStrike. Nearly 18 hours later. Show nested quote +On March 21 2015 03:12 Half the Sky wrote:
Day 1: Current Vote Count
Vivax (5): Holyflare, Artanis[Xp], Damdred, LightningStrike, sicklucker, Toadesstern
LightningStrike (4): Bill Murray, Toadesstern, FecalFeast, raynpelikoneet, Vivax, Onegu
sicklucker (3): Eden1892, Holyflare, rsoultin, Alakaslam, Superbia, Alakaslam, Eden1892, Breshke
Artanis[Xp] (2): Toadesstern, Eden1892, VisceraEyes, Eden1892
raynpelikoneet (2): Holyflare, Damdred, rsoultin
Toadesstern (2): Palmar, Artanis[Xp], raynpelikoneet
Eden1892 (1): Fecalfeast, Onegu, Bill Murray, ExO
Damdred (0): raynpelikoneet, sicklucker, Artanis[Xp]
Superbia (0): Eden1892
VisceraEyes (0): Artanis[Xp]
Alakaslam (0): Holyflare, Artanis, sicklucker, Eden1892
ExO_ (0): Eden1892
Palmar (0): Toadesstern, Toadesstern, Bill Murray
Trfel (0): Artanis, Superbia, Eden1892
Holyflare (0): Alakaslam
Not Voting (1): Trfel
Currently, Vivax [blue]is set to be executed. Day 1 ends in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00). And here's a vote count. It doesn't appear to me that mafia is bussing LightningStrike here at all (unless of course Vivax is scum...). Raynpelikoneet does show immediate support. Eventually, Eden follows on. I note that Palmar townreads LightningStrike, even after this. While it's possible that Fecalfeast actually is bussing LightningStrike here, but there is no motivation for him to do this as scum at all. If it's truly a planned bus attempt, it doesn't get the support that I would expect. Therefore, I think it's much more likely that Fecalfeast is town here.
I think you're applying herd mentality a bit too much here. Scum will rarely all move together to do one thing, but rather fan out and take different positions within town.
It's also possible that the scumteam waited to see if any traction was gained. When it didn't really move they didn't want to be the only ones wagoning a scumbuddy for no reason.
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The orb can no longer kill anyone. It has 4 1 time uses
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Basically, the premise of your argument is that "If scum want to bus LS, they would do it strongly for maximum cred or they wouldn't do it at all" and I'm not convinced that a middle of the road option isn't possible.
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On March 27 2015 09:57 sicklucker wrote:
The orb can no longer kill anyone. It has 4 1 time uses
So it can only rolecheck and roleblock now?
I'm presuming the roleblock would also prevent KP.
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On March 27 2015 09:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Basically, the premise of your argument is that "If scum want to bus LS, they would do it strongly for maximum cred or they wouldn't do it at all" and I'm not convinced that a middle of the road option isn't possible. I agree, but I don't think this looked like a middle of the road option.
To me, it looks like scum had very little to do with the LightningStrike push at all. If you think Vivax is town, Onegu only followed by the RNG sheep. And there was some support given in the thread, but only from raynpelikoneet and Eden. I don't think this makes sense from a mafia!Fecalfeast perspective, though I suppose if raynpelikoneet/ritoky is scum after all, I could see this. But if raynpelikoneet was town, then scum didn't show any support for this case at all. I would think that scum would try to get towncredit for more than one person for an early Day 1 bus, so they would have at least one other person show support for it fairly early on (even if not voting for it).
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On March 27 2015 10:02 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 09:57 sicklucker wrote:
The orb can no longer kill anyone. It has 4 1 time uses So it can only rolecheck and roleblock now? I'm presuming the roleblock would also prevent KP. This is correct.
Rolecheck is extremely powerful, as basically anything non-vanilla indicates scum. And all of the scum power roles are still up (except I suppose a godfather wouldn't be caught by this).
Roleblock does prevent KP, but with only one scum KP and three scum, this is difficult.
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On March 27 2015 10:03 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 09:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Basically, the premise of your argument is that "If scum want to bus LS, they would do it strongly for maximum cred or they wouldn't do it at all" and I'm not convinced that a middle of the road option isn't possible. I agree, but I don't think this looked like a middle of the road option. To me, it looks like scum had very little to do with the LightningStrike push at all. If you think Vivax is town, Onegu only followed by the RNG sheep. And there was some support given in the thread, but only from raynpelikoneet and Eden. I don't think this makes sense from a mafia!Fecalfeast perspective, though I suppose if raynpelikoneet/ritoky is scum after all, I could see this. But if raynpelikoneet was town, then scum didn't show any support for this case at all. I would think that scum would try to get towncredit for more than one person for an early Day 1 bus, so they would have at least one other person show support for it fairly early on (even if not voting for it).
I don't see the option where scum fecal makes a case and the rest of the scumteam waits to see if townies sheep it before hopping on as unreasonable.
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On March 27 2015 10:05 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 10:03 Trfel wrote:On March 27 2015 09:58 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Basically, the premise of your argument is that "If scum want to bus LS, they would do it strongly for maximum cred or they wouldn't do it at all" and I'm not convinced that a middle of the road option isn't possible. I agree, but I don't think this looked like a middle of the road option. To me, it looks like scum had very little to do with the LightningStrike push at all. If you think Vivax is town, Onegu only followed by the RNG sheep. And there was some support given in the thread, but only from raynpelikoneet and Eden. I don't think this makes sense from a mafia!Fecalfeast perspective, though I suppose if raynpelikoneet/ritoky is scum after all, I could see this. But if raynpelikoneet was town, then scum didn't show any support for this case at all. I would think that scum would try to get towncredit for more than one person for an early Day 1 bus, so they would have at least one other person show support for it fairly early on (even if not voting for it). I don't see the option where scum fecal makes a case and the rest of the scumteam waits to see if townies sheep it before hopping on as unreasonable. Fair enough, I'll defer to your experience.
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Do note I do think it's a point in his favour, just not to the extreme of calling a scum Fecal unlikely given the rest of the events throughout the game.
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I'm going to try one more argument.
After I checked LightningStrike, he expressed disappointment at being caught. If I am scum, this makes sense (it makes me seem towny). However, if I am town (which I know for certain), then it is very likely that LightningStrike was telling the truth, and he was disappointed to be caught. This indicates that scum wasn't completely willing to bus LightningStrike (I don't think they would be willing to bus him when Fecalfeast did, and then change their minds, because the only good reason for Fecalfeast bussing LightningStrike there is LightningStrike's own desire to not play). Basically, because I know that LightningStrike ultimately was not bussed, and seemed to be genuinely disappointed at being lynched, I think that makes Fecalfeast more likely to be town.
Does that make sense to anyone else?
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LS posted puppies D1 and baby seals D2 so I'm not sure he was confident in surviving for long.
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Kinda, it just feels a bit presumptious somehow.
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Anyway I guess we just post our lists and then find the compromise between the towns most likely to die.
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Breshke will probably be my newcomer scumread. Guy being in my blind spot all game long.
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Well I posted my list a little bit ago.
On March 27 2015 08:14 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
STILL TOWN (ordered by filter size):
Artanis
Eden
Vivax
Toadesstern
Trfel
Sicklucker
STILL V LIKELY TOWN
Damdred
PROBABLY TOWN
Breshke
???
Superbia
Fecalfeast
Onegu
Ritoky
Not taking votes into account yet. If Onegu is town it wouldn't matter either way, if Onegu's scum it's v interesting tho.
Fecal might be a little bit higher than the others in his group, dunno.
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Btw ls always posts puppies... You need to play with him more vivax.
Anyway I have a lot of ideas but no comp atm to go in depth XD.
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Also I sort of doubt a bus on ls. Palmar had come around I believe and was town reading ls so I think he would be in a null or town circle for his team mates
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I have to look into that though see how his reads interact with others. And habits obviously
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I'm hella disappoint with Damdred. Weren't we promised something good today?
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EPT
