I have claimed to have the orb on Night 1, and this hasn't been counterclaimed. Therefore, the orb went to me or one of my scumbuddies. Due to tracking, and coming up with this crazy idea in the first place, it can be safely assumed that I had the orb.
I bussed LightningStrike completely. This basically means that LightningStrike asked to be bussed, and the mafia team decided that I would do it. This actually isn't terribly unlikely, as LightningStrike did (before End of Night) say that he was not wanting to play any more, and after end of night he said that he was disappointed at being caught. And I wasn't in the best of spots before this. Still, the chances of this happening aren't amazing.
Third, I used the orb. And I got the tracking ability. Each ability can only be used once, and my guess is that even if roleblocked, you are informed what ability was chosen (even if it doesn't go through). So, if I didn't use the orb, I put myself at extreme risk of someone else getting the tracker ability and claiming it. It is possible that the orb will exist for only three nights, and thus not all four abilities will be used, but mafia wouldn't want to count on this.
+ Show Spoiler +On a somewhat unrelated note, if anyone does counterclaim the orb tracker ability, I accept a lynch if town is not at LYLO or MYLO. The reason for this is upon my flip, the person who counterclaimed can be lynched, and I will 2 for 1 mafia, which is quite good. If you are town and lie to lynch me in this way, you get the "worst player ever" award. If it is LYLO or MYLO, I would refuse to be lynched, for obvious reasons, and whoever counterclaimed me would be free scum (to me, if not to everyone else). But that's a problem I hope doesn't arise.
From here, two possibilities arise. LightningStrike killed Holyflare himself, or he didn't. Note that I assume mafia didn't double stack Holyflare, as he was a likely jailkeeper target, and jailkeeper blocks all KP.
If LightningStrike didn't kill Holyflare:
Despite us already assuming that LightningStrike wanted to quit, and the entire mafia team was willing to bus him, and him being a flipped goon (thus being the best KP carrier ever), mafia was so confident in this plan that mafia didn't have him carry KP.
At this point, there's a 50% chance that I can use the orb to bus LightningStrike (rolecheck and roleblock would do nothing to let me bus him, and I can't claim a false ability). By not having LightningStrike kill Holyflare, and by having me use the orb on LightningStrike, mafia is very committed to having me use the orb to bus Holyflare. And right here, we hit a 50% chance that it doesn't work.
From here, mafia would probably abort the plan of having me bus LightningStrike. I'm a miserable mafia player, and I don't think I mentioned LightningStrike (or many players, for that matter) a single time in my filter by that point. I would have had to generate a read on LightningStrike from nowhere, and I probably wouldn't have gotten that much town credit from it (assuming I pulled it off with reasonable success, which is unlikely). The better play for mafia would be to have someone else bus LightningStrike and leave me to fend for myself, quite likely resulting in me dying on Day 3 (I don't think I can avoid the lynch as mafia at all, and having not read the thread and already being scumread, there would have been no chance I survived). So mafia was willing to sacrifice the orb and the better KP carrier to end up at a 50% chance of no gain whatsoever.
If LightningStrike did kill Holyflare:
I didn't target LightningStrike with the orb. This is because of the roleblock ability. Mafia would refuse to take the 25% chance of roleblocking their kill on Holyflare, thus keeping Holyflare alive. Targeting LightningStrike with the orb is far too big of a risk for scum to take here.
I put myself at extreme risk of being tracked (because I didn't visit LightningStrike). If I was tracked, two mafia die for free.
If I had gotten any of the other three abilities, I couldn't have bussed LightningStrike. For reasons stated above, the best alternative plan for mafia would be to have someone else bus LightningStrike, still leaving me to try and defend myself.
Basically, there is an extremely specific sequence of events that must have happened for me to be mafia. I think it's extremely unlikely, but I admit it's possible. If you're wondering why I typed this up to arrive at a conclusion other than me being 100% confirmed town, I thought it would make me 100% confirmed town, but I need to be honest. I'm definitely 95+% town, which is my threshold for giving people a free pass for the game, but that's for everyone else to decide.
EPT
She also my whisper so listen to her on me.![[image loading]](http://www.quickmeme.com/img/da/da15f7fc523cbbe668f5bb4a997d191b5cc9af6df6b3dcac0245b0f051f6c3c4.jpg)
