EPTMini Mafia Down Under 2 - Page 6
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
MM1 has his scum team as OATS and one of ritoky or snickers; and has for some time now. Now I am confirmed town for a lot of reasons so he is just wrong, but let us try to consider if he could POSSIBLY be coming from a town perspective. In his world, Oats is CONFIRMED MAFIA. His list isn't 2 of these 3 people. It is OATS and 1 of 2. Yet he has made 0 fucking pushes all game on a guy he has listed as confirmed mafia, and you guys wanted to lynch snickers cuz he was being a dick???? Fucking sigh. Fucking robik. Now we're in fucking lylo. Before this night is over, since both uncc'd PRs are alive you need to make legacy posts, cuz 1 of the two of you is dying. | ||
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ritoky
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let's assume that onegu is medic as claimed since there's been no PR CC and I am assuming we are looking at a 2 town PR game which is a standard setup. (should I tinfoil about an unorthodox setup? hrmmm) Also Onegu, don't try cute shit, if you're medic; just save the confirmed vigi. so there's 4 people in the game who are not confirmed to you: me, rsoul, oats, mm1 so you need to leave legacy reads or get every bit of info you need from those 4 people before the end of the night. | ||
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so when I am re-evaluating and coming up with my reads from reading the other 3 people's entire filters it will be nice to have basically confirmed townies to compare what they read from their filters to what i read from their filters. | ||
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all relevant mentions of oats in his filter: Pretty much immediately upon entry, MM1 prods Oats for his entrance trying to elicit some reaction out of him. On March 04 2015 03:38 MysteryMeat1 wrote: ##Vote: Oatsmaster Hi oats, gimme some love There is 0 follow-up and oats pretty much ignores the prod altogether, MM1 makes nothing of it and does not push for info or a read from this in the slightest. On March 04 2015 04:51 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Then I shall follow you robik and vote for prp, or would you have me keep my vote on oats? After coming back to the thread late in the day, MM1 does not try to pursue his line on oats at all, instead he elects to sheep robik who I believe he is town reading at this point (it changed a lot) and doesn't even seek out robik's thoughts on oats in the process of sheeping him. He clearly has no interest in determining Oats' alignment at this point. On March 06 2015 12:13 MysteryMeat1 wrote: So funny story robik, I actually came into 1000$ in scam money, had to call the police and talk to them. It was pretty exhausting. I voted on prplhz cause I didnt have a good read on slam, I also thought robik was softing a power role or something and probably didn't even know if snickers was town or mafia and tried to frame him for the lolz. Like I said earlier I thought it was weird that rsoul had told prp that he was lacking a reaction and then blew up out of no where really. I was going to place my vote on prp regardless but decided to place it on oats to see if he would say something, however I believe when i placed the vote there was only like 4 hours left and I realized that was too late to pressure someone so i switched it to prp. At the time i was reading snickers and robik as town. As for town reads: Snickers trfel ritoky rsoul Mafia: Robik, he usually reads me fairly well even with my shit play, I know i haven't been as active and he hasn't been really pushing on me, but he's a mafia sided lean. Onegu - Seems very lynch happy This next section is pretty wifom: If i was mafia: I would probably push a lynch on me or robik. If you wanted to deal with robik then you could probably push on him for his activity and then the 'fake' yelling that he got a warning for. Even easier than that would be me, I've never been mafia and I suck at all town roles. im going back to reading Here MM1 re-visits why he did not push on oats in the slightest claiming that he wanted a reaction from oats but he came back to the thread too late to really turn it into anything. Now this could be a legitimate excuse, and I actually do buy it for this phase, but this shit is like day 2/night 1 area....You didn't have time then, what about...I don't know....the entire rest of the game where you still didn't push for it? Also note here that the #1 person that has "bugged" MM1 from the start of the game has been oats; yet in his initial reads post here he completely neglects to add him anywhere or explain why he is mafia. Further the person who he was sheeping/convinced him to move off of his read in robik had now suddenly become mafia for calling MM1 mafia. But just 7 minutes later we get another post: On March 06 2015 12:20 MysteryMeat1 wrote: also the other people I forgot to mention, I'm fine with damdred and just doing a quick look through super's filter it seemed like there was justification for his vote on prp and then tried to not get slam shot. Oats is oats and could be mafia, I think the last game we played together was cell which was basically me and HF being bitches to each other for like 300 posts and he turned out to be mafia. Hwever in that game iirc he didn't really play that much and he hasn' been playing a lot this game so he's a mafia lean I'd probably put robik in the nuetral with a very slight scum lean so for the recap Town: Snickers tfel ritoky rsoul Neutral Town: Damdred Neutral Mafia Robik Mafia oats super An addendum to his reads post for people he forgot previously, just 7 minutes later (did someone check their own filter and realize they were being inconsistent?) Suddenly oats makes a return appearance AHEAD OF ROBIK who got a full sentence explanation, and why? "Because oats is oats and could be mafia". On March 08 2015 14:53 MysteryMeat1 wrote: robik, oats, and I all thought that one of the other two were scum. I'm fairly certain robik is town so based on that I would put oats pretty high up on my scum list. BS reason but idc. I'm suprised no one has really been hard pushing me after damdred died. From my perspective that nk was set up to get me mislynched. I really didn't like the superbia lynch, for his logic when it came to oats, robik, and I. I also agreed with the gut read on snickers. Fun Fact* The first game (maybe second game) I played with snickers I got lynched the first thing i did was mesage chairman ray on skype and was like you and snickers are mafia. I think that there is at least one scum on the slam wagon day1, and oats didn't vote and at the moment my scum team would be oats, ritoky/snickers Here is where we begin to get into the realm of why MM1 is very likely mafia. Remember that read earlier that he never pushed for a response? Well this is it on steroids and it is going to get repeated in the following: On March 08 2015 16:16 MysteryMeat1 wrote: I would vote on these three today oats and then snickers/ritoky, I liked rsouls and onegus reasoning so I would be fine with a snickers lynch. So what MM1 is saying here is that he has narrowed the game down to oats and 1 of snickers/ritoky. Which means to him, oats is 100% confirmed mafia. If he said 2 of oats, ritoky, snickers it is a different story. MM1 at this point in the game believes oats to be confirmed mafia for a reason that he has not really explained other than the following: oats is oats, and MM1, robik, and oats can't all get on the same page so 1 of them has to be mafia. That is the extent of his read to this point. Now having a confirmed mafia in his sights, what does he do? Lynches into the 1 of 2 world that he believes exists. Makes absolutely 0 effort to convince people of or develop his read on someone he thinks is confirmed mafia and places 0 pressure and 0 push onto him. If you place youself in MM1's shoes as town (regardless of how he got to this place) and you are sitting here honestly believing there are two mafia left, 1 is DEFINITELY oats and the 2nd is between snickers and ritoky, can you reasonably justify his passivity? From a town perspective, I cannot justify it. all relevant mentions of rsoul in his filter: Mentions of rsoul are a bit more sporadic and very much more unfocused in MM1's filter. On March 03 2015 11:36 MysteryMeat1 wrote: My phone is about to die but with a quick glance tHrough Rsoul filter I'm not a huge fan Very early in the game MM1 reads rsoul's filter, says she looks scummy for a non-descript reason and no evidence. On March 03 2015 11:38 MysteryMeat1 wrote: I didn't say the mafia word once iirc. To me it seems that rsoul was like prp isn't reacting at all. Now prp is going way over the top if we lynch prp and he flips mafia I'd probably lynch rsoul He then says he wants to lynch prp, and if prp flips mafia then rsoul should consequently be lynched. This happens before any interaction with oats. Now excuse my next bit because I am going to potentially tinfoil and wifom out of control. Let's imagine for a moment an MM1 + rsoul team is the remaining mafia. This seems like an extremely deliberate setup to town read someone for the duration of the game for. You come into the thread, scum read your partner for an inconsequential reason, tie your partner's alignment to that of a townie who you know is a likely lynch candidate saying associatively if this guy is mafia, then so is she. When that person flips as town, you flip the read and clear your partner for days to come. It seems like a VERY deliberate tying of 2 players' alignments together for someone who at this point has basically 0 input in the entire game. I bring this up only because the remaining is all of MM1's mentions of rsoul: On March 06 2015 12:13 MysteryMeat1 wrote: So funny story robik, I actually came into 1000$ in scam money, had to call the police and talk to them. It was pretty exhausting. I voted on prplhz cause I didnt have a good read on slam, I also thought robik was softing a power role or something and probably didn't even know if snickers was town or mafia and tried to frame him for the lolz. Like I said earlier I thought it was weird that rsoul had told prp that he was lacking a reaction and then blew up out of no where really. I was going to place my vote on prp regardless but decided to place it on oats to see if he would say something, however I believe when i placed the vote there was only like 4 hours left and I realized that was too late to pressure someone so i switched it to prp. At the time i was reading snickers and robik as town. As for town reads: Snickers trfel ritoky rsoul Mafia: Robik, he usually reads me fairly well even with my shit play, I know i haven't been as active and he hasn't been really pushing on me, but he's a mafia sided lean. Onegu - Seems very lynch happy This next section is pretty wifom: If i was mafia: I would probably push a lynch on me or robik. If you wanted to deal with robik then you could probably push on him for his activity and then the 'fake' yelling that he got a warning for. Even easier than that would be me, I've never been mafia and I suck at all town roles. im going back to reading On March 06 2015 12:20 MysteryMeat1 wrote: also the other people I forgot to mention, I'm fine with damdred and just doing a quick look through super's filter it seemed like there was justification for his vote on prp and then tried to not get slam shot. Oats is oats and could be mafia, I think the last game we played together was cell which was basically me and HF being bitches to each other for like 300 posts and he turned out to be mafia. Hwever in that game iirc he didn't really play that much and he hasn' been playing a lot this game so he's a mafia lean I'd probably put robik in the nuetral with a very slight scum lean so for the recap Town: Snickers tfel ritoky rsoul Neutral Town: Damdred Neutral Mafia Robik Mafia oats super On March 08 2015 16:16 MysteryMeat1 wrote: I would vote on these three today oats and then snickers/ritoky, I liked rsouls and onegus reasoning so I would be fine with a snickers lynch. 2 one word town reads and him saying he likes rsouls justification for a snickers lynch. A lynch, as I explained earlier, that is not a lynch of someone he believes is CONFIRMED mafia. Why is he content with following her into lynching someone when he believes Oats is confirmed mafia? From that point when he makes the associative read and subsequently prp flips town, rsoul is lock clear with no explanation for the remainder of the game for MM1. Now I find this ignoring of rsoul relevant because I want you to go MM1's filter and look for any interaction at all with slam before slam gets lynched. Did you look? If not, you will find absolutely 0. He completely ignored slam. Had 0 interaction, and 0 read on the person leading the votes for much of the day. He was one of the deciding votes that saved slam, yet said 0 about him while he was alive. It bothers me that he has a similar approach to rsoul where for the vast majority of the game he has simply ignored her existence. Conclusions: This is purely from examination of MM1's filter, I will examine it from the other sides shortly as well. Is an MM1 + Oats world possible: yes Why? 1) Prod on oats early on with no follow-up could be indicative of trying to find easy way to town read partner 2) Has had scum read on Oats for a long time and never pushed it 3) Has had Oats as confirmed mafia for more than 1 phase and been content to lynch others Is an MM1 + rsoul world possible: yes Why? 1) Deliberate association/tying of alignements 2) Completely ignoring her for near duration of the game How likely is it that MM1 was with slam? highly 1) They had 0 interactions at all in the thread, scum ignoring a teammate is a very common thing particularly in inactive scum. 2) He cast one of the deciding votes that switched the lynch off of slam onto prp, then subsequently scum read the person who convinced him to swap. Ultimately after reading MM1's filter and MM1's filter alone; I am at a place where I see him as capable of being scum with both other players, having play (particularly surrounding his oats interactions) that make absolutely no sense, and being easily paired with slam. There is a high chance he is scum. I might get to oats' filter tonight before I sleep, no guarantees. rsoul's is long so that one is tomorrow for sure. | ||
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ritoky
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Let us first dispense with the easy part: rsoul and slam in regards to Oats' filter Oats was not here for the vote and made a whopping 2 posts on day 1. He then followed it up by saying he would totally lynch slam and stuff like that. Take it with a grain of salt, was all post flip and I could care less since anyone as any alignment can say that shit with 2 day posts and missing the vote. Essentially it ends up being inconclusive or hard to tell if he could have been with slam because...he just wasn't here at all. Next we move to the one and only mention of rsoul in Oats' entire filter: On March 09 2015 22:07 Oatsmaster wrote: meh maybe, but the push on robik felt real and i doubt she wouldve continued after the outburst by robik if she was scum, so obvious that hes town after that. His only thoughts on rsoul over the entire course of the game first and foremost have to be provoked from someone else, thus he likely would have continued ignoring her if not directly asked. Secondly, it is a town read for essentially pushing someone to the point of ragequitting, and then using non-commitall language at the end. I find it incredibly strange that both MM1 and oats essentially ignored the living hell out of rsoul for the vast majority of the game even though she, myself, and robik were probably the 3 loudest people over the course of the game. That complete ignoring of her into a sudden crappy explained town read has me tinfoiling to some degree, but then completely scratching my head because they BOTH do it. That is all. Not much to work with on that front. However on the other front, we arrive at seemingly the only thing Oats has show interest in the entire game, interactions with MM1 and robik. On March 05 2015 15:12 Oatsmaster wrote: I wouldve totally lynched slam guys. Credits pls. Robik and MM, why did you vote me when I had only made, 1 or max 2 posts and why did you guys drop the push?? Here we have oats pinging out mm1 as well as robik for not continuing their pursuit of the line of questioning, we saw this in MM1's filter earlier where he did not pursue it. Well it appears Oats wanted to know why and prodded for an answer to it again on multiple occaisons, as can be seen here: On March 05 2015 17:29 Oatsmaster wrote: your activity has been lacking. Slam shot has been claimed. Why dont you look into the switches instead of just giving 'advice'. Also, what happened to you rpush on me? On March 06 2015 12:51 Oatsmaster wrote: Its weird when you dont follow up on it or actually convince anyone that Im scum. Oats does not let the scum read disappear and kept pursuing an answer to the question but the answer was never delivered at least on MM1's front. Instead MM1 simply scum reads Oats for the duration of the game, never replies to the occaisions when Oats asks him about it, and Oats seems content to scum read him right back and nothing more. It would seem to me like if one of these two was town and this happened, they would flip the fuck out and make a much larger deal of this than it was. MM1 was actively dodging Oats' questions, Oats re-asked multiple times, MM1 still doesn't answer. Instead MM1 scum reads Oats. Oats scum reads MM1 back, and neither one makes a concerted effort to push on the other one. One of these two at this point should be furious or seriously pushing the other, yet both just seem content with the state of the game. The only other interesting thing regarding Oats and MM1 is an interaction between Oats and Robik when Oats is developing his read on Robik: On March 06 2015 02:08 Oatsmaster wrote: So you have MM and me as lynchees right? But you never once in your filter explain why you think that way. You mention our names MULTIPLE TIMES but NOT ONCE do you offer reasoning. On March 06 2015 02:19 Oatsmaster wrote: 1 post doesnt make a push. Its laughable that you are trying to portray it that way. Thats not a fucking reason why MM is mafia. Apparently this is what it looks like when you try and play the game. Again, thats not a reason why Im mafia. OMGUS is not a valid argument. In these two posts, Oats seems insistent on not only finding out exactly why Robik is scum reading himself and attempting to invalidate it, but also strangely insistent on why robik is scum reading MM1. It just seems very odd that of all the things to be intensely particular about in a short filter that he is specifically asking about why robik is reading BOTH of them scum. Conclusions Overall Oats has been a large non-factor in the game. He has seemingly only cared about 1 thing the entire game and that was this interaction between Oats/Robik/himself on day 1 and that leaking over into later phases. Outside of that he has pretty much ignored every other occurrence of the game unless directly provoked to interact with it. We are also lacking crucial voting info on Oats in regards to the important vote on slam. Is the Oats + rsoul world possible? yes Why? 1) weak reason, but ABSOLUTELY IGNORED HER even worse than MM1 did Is the Oats + MM1 world possible? yes Why? 1) Only interaction in the thread Oats gives a damn about 2) Does not react very strongly to being completely ignored 3) Seems content to be scum read by MM1 after ignored and content scum reading him back but never directly pushing him How likely is it that Oats was with Slam? Inconclusive (Moderate) Literally nothing to draw from that is pre-vote; and 1 post to draw from that basically says "I would have voted slam" pre-flip on slam. I mean, he ignored slam, which I am citing as a potential reason for teams; yet he ignored basically the entire thread until day 2. I will leave it at moderate in parenthesis just because there is basically no content that exists to judge it. Ultimately after digging through 2 filters I have a weak reason that both of these players could be with Rsoul and I feel like Rsoul's filter will give me the most information and clarity. I think from here all the pairs are possible between these 3. Currently I think the most prominent interaction I have seen is this no-push from both sides between Oats and MM1. MM1 never replies to Oats, scum reads him, lists him as confirmed mafia then never tries to get him lynched. On the other hand Oats finds MM1 and robik's reads strange, asks for an explanation, never gets one, gets scum read, scum reads him back, and never pushes fully back. To me, it feels like if one of them were town in this situation and the other one wasn't the town one would be going absolutely ballistic about this interaction. Yet both seem completely content with it as well as the game state. Before reading rsoul's filter I think the most likely team is MM1 + Oats. Rsoul's filter is tomorrow, goodnight. | ||
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ritoky
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possible explanation as to why both ignore rsoul: perhaps mafia together and expected the opportunity to kill her before end game, but blue claims fuxxord them into leaving her alive? w/e no more thinking for tonight, only sleeping. | ||
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Let's start on whether or not rsoul can be with slam, there's too many posts for me to really quote this entire story. Essentially the wagon on slam was ORIGINALLY hers essentially. And not originally hers in the sense that she was the 1st vote and afk got cred while a wagon formed, she was the 2nd vote and did much of the convincing of people to vote on slam, that is a CRAZY bus. Did she get cold feet, lured to the dark side, and end up voting to save him? Yes. Could this mean she is mafia.....kinda, but probably not. She was 100% on board my call for a vigi shot on slam if a vigi was in the game, and emphasized it with me. Like there's an argument that the statistical play says there likely isn't a vigi so if you're mafia that is play is a wash, but that's some next level shit that if she did, kudos. Essentially I find it hard to place her in a team with Slam based on her play. So she can't really be mafia. BUT IN THE TINFOIL WORLD WHO WOULD SHE BE WITH? Answer: MM1 Why? More complex interactions, attempts at town reading him and that weird point in the game where she said she was willing to switch to MM1 and then when the stars aligned she was gone. These things are displayed in the following quotes: On March 04 2015 08:18 rsoultin wrote: yes twit is an actual word o.0 Not looking back at the votes, but MM and Super seem most likely -rolls around the thread- MM because he promised to sheep Robik, then didn't when the vote was on slam, which is interesting. And you because I think Palmar believed his lynch, but you're shit this game. On March 05 2015 12:44 rsoultin wrote: Meh, I think it's short-sighted to assume that no mafia is on prp there Super. I'm not sold on your alignment at all and just shelving it cause I know i'm biased. But you're sure MM is town, too? I find that hard to believe. You don't think Oats on his lonesome could possibly be scum? I dislike this limiting options thing, especially when it encourages people not to look at you. And you really have no right to say anything to damdred when you were saying I chose to call attention to myself in the most moronic way possible by switching from one town wagon to another as scum. Talk about zero sense. On March 05 2015 15:05 rsoultin wrote: I still kinda think ritoky is town...and mm could be based on his play. like I think a wagon on him right now is mostly policy, which seems like a complete cop out. oats either was scum afk when slam was being wagoned or couldn't be bothered to give a shit...not about claiming credit or about saving slam. I kinda lean toward general afk though and want to put him at null. why specifically is this his town game, snickers? On March 07 2015 07:39 rsoultin wrote: i'm here but will only switch to MM...I think Onegu is town for shit reasons, but i do and don't have the time to verify to change opinion The real standout moment is that refusal/not present to vote switch. Yes she detailed some math that may or may not be correct about the numbers of the swap; if she is mafia, she saved both of her partners and explained it away. And if she is mafia with MM1 it is for this. Could she be mafia with Oats in a tinfoil world? Actually no. I find this world the absolute least possible world. Like I can visualize an MM1+oats world very clearly and an rsoul + mm1 as a faint image in my head but this one is just....no. I can dig up the quotes but I sincerely doubt any1 is actually going to thoroughly read it at this point. Essentially what it boils down to is that rsoul has scum read oats for the longest fucking time, and tried to push him at times even more than MM1 who has oats listed as confirmed mafia. In fact I would say that in the game rsoul has attempted to get Oats killed the most of any1. So essentially that would have to mean she bussed both her teammates to the extreme since moment 1 of the game. She made the wagon on slam, saved him, echoed my call for a shot on him, and has tried to lynch her other teammate during the late days.....Like...that is too much bus. I know some huge bussers as mafia, and this is too much. She is not with oats. Essentially I arrive at the opposite place of Rsoul. I think Rsoul is my fellow townie, if she isn't she fooled me and these other two have done so little to convince me they are town that it is essentially impossible for me to conclude they are town. In the crazy world where rsoul is mafia she is more likely with MM1 so I would like to hedge and vote MM1 (and she thinks the same for me + oats) before Oats but it is of little consequence to me. I am pretty much fully on board lynching MM1 + oats back to back as I think that is the team with about 98.65% certainty. Order is kinda irrelevant, but ya know....dat paranoia. ##vote: MM1 if trfel and rsoul feel an extreme desire for oats first then I will switch to join you, but I am pretty committed to you two as my townies going forward. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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i feel i played quite well | ||
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idk i think if you would have tried harder rsoul, i would have sided with you, lynched oats, then i was afraid you or trfel would fear lynch me in f3. | ||
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