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On February 15 2015 11:24 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 11:12 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 10:59 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 10:51 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 10:28 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 09:46 Town Puppy wrote:Also liancourt is town. Not that I'm RNG lynching or anything + Show Spoiler + but the RNG lynch is looking steadily better with so many people getting themselves out of the "possibly mafia" pool. Why are so many of your posts focusing on the percent chance VA is mafia and praising BH, yet you're voting for KSC? Bogus charge, my most substantial post of the game by far is my case on KelsierSC. My filter isn't even long, not sure why you're having trouble reading it this game.  Hardly a bogus charge. You've posted several posts now townreading people, saying that BH's RNG is getting better and better...including directly after that large KSC post. It seems really disconnected to me, even for you xP Also, KSC isn't making my town list, but your arguments for scumreading him were pretty weak when compared to his filter. I think my case against Kelsier is great. If you're gonna call my reasons "weak compared to his filter" then you better be prepared to say why. And I keep commenting on BH's RNG lynch because I don't have a good reason yet to think anything of Vayne. I haven't seen anything to make me think he's town or mafia. There's a pretty real chance that Vayne gets lynched today, so I have to decide for myself if I'm okay with this happening or not. In absence of Vayne being clearly town, figuring out a bunch of townies that aren't Vayne makes me feel better about him getting lynched, because for every person who steps up and shows themselves to be town, that's one more incremental step toward Vayne being mafia by POE. Also, where did I praise BH? I saw you said that in your earlier post as I typed this one. I wouldn't say I've done that. RNGesus? I don't see anything particularly alignment-indicative in KSC's filter. It's short. It's Valentine's Day. What makes KSC scum about thinking that VA may be rolling over to deny town information if he's mafia? The lian read was kinda weird, imo, as a "too scummy to be scum" sorta deal, cause not sure how that translates to top town, but that wasn't part of your case. And I don't understand your HtS point at all? Is the argument that she's the only one who has claimed? If KSC isn't reading her as "top town" then why does it matter if he thinks she shouldn't be townreading him yet? The case is just inconclusive.
Not praise.
It is suspicious that KSC concluded VA decided to roll over as scum and deny information because:
(1) Vayne hasn't rolled over
(2) Vayne being lynched is far from a certainty
(3) Vayne hasn't actually done anything alignment-indicative, and Kelsier's description of his activity is a description of a null player, but then Kelsier decides Vayne is mafia anyway
The lian read being weird was part of my case, thanks for adding to it by taking another angle on it.
I really don't see how my case is inconclusive.
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Also if you don't like my case come up with something better plz. Slightly annoying to have people dumping on it by calling it bad logic but then not pushing anything better. s/o to rso
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On February 15 2015 11:56 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 11:47 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 11:24 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 11:12 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 10:59 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 10:51 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 10:28 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 09:46 Town Puppy wrote:Also liancourt is town. Not that I'm RNG lynching or anything + Show Spoiler + but the RNG lynch is looking steadily better with so many people getting themselves out of the "possibly mafia" pool. Why are so many of your posts focusing on the percent chance VA is mafia and praising BH, yet you're voting for KSC? Bogus charge, my most substantial post of the game by far is my case on KelsierSC. My filter isn't even long, not sure why you're having trouble reading it this game. Hardly a bogus charge. You've posted several posts now townreading people, saying that BH's RNG is getting better and better...including directly after that large KSC post. It seems really disconnected to me, even for you xP Also, KSC isn't making my town list, but your arguments for scumreading him were pretty weak when compared to his filter. I think my case against Kelsier is great. If you're gonna call my reasons "weak compared to his filter" then you better be prepared to say why. And I keep commenting on BH's RNG lynch because I don't have a good reason yet to think anything of Vayne. I haven't seen anything to make me think he's town or mafia. There's a pretty real chance that Vayne gets lynched today, so I have to decide for myself if I'm okay with this happening or not. In absence of Vayne being clearly town, figuring out a bunch of townies that aren't Vayne makes me feel better about him getting lynched, because for every person who steps up and shows themselves to be town, that's one more incremental step toward Vayne being mafia by POE. Also, where did I praise BH? I saw you said that in your earlier post as I typed this one. I wouldn't say I've done that. RNGesus? I don't see anything particularly alignment-indicative in KSC's filter. It's short. It's Valentine's Day. What makes KSC scum about thinking that VA may be rolling over to deny town information if he's mafia? The lian read was kinda weird, imo, as a "too scummy to be scum" sorta deal, cause not sure how that translates to top town, but that wasn't part of your case. And I don't understand your HtS point at all? Is the argument that she's the only one who has claimed? If KSC isn't reading her as "top town" then why does it matter if he thinks she shouldn't be townreading him yet? The case is just inconclusive. Not praise. It is suspicious that KSC concluded VA decided to roll over as scum and deny information because: (1) Vayne hasn't rolled over (2) Vayne being lynched is far from a certainty (3) Vayne hasn't actually done anything alignment-indicative, and Kelsier's description of his activity is a description of a null player, but then Kelsier decides Vayne is mafia anyway The lian read being weird was part of my case, thanks for adding to it by taking another angle on it. I really don't see how my case is inconclusive. You don't see anything wrong with HTS claiming miller and saying she's doing it because of marv last game, when you explicitly know the circumstances of that claim since you instigated it, and there is absolutely no parallel between that and this game? Lol, my BS meter, Eden xP
No, not particularly. I don't think HTS is gutsy enough to fakeclaim out of the gate as miller. Simple as that. If there's a cc then we can talk, but right now we have an un-cc'd miller from a player who isn't known for making high-risk decisions. I don't care if she got inspiration for it from another game. She saw how much hot water marv would have been in had he been mafia and fakeclaiming, and could easily see how much hot water one of the mafia could have been in had they fakeclaimed and gotten cc'd by marv.
I'm getting worried about you, bud. I don't get the sense you're really engaging my arguments. You're saying stuff that almost gets to the point of a response to my points, stuff that on the surface looks like a counterargument, but when I unpack it you aren't really rebutting my core premise. None of what you said in the post I'm quoting does anything to falsify my premise.
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On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all
She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic:
(1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT.
(2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2).
(3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up.
(4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia.
(5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine.
(6) HTS is town.
I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there.
What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.)
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On February 15 2015 13:29 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 13:04 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic: (1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT. (2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2). (3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up. (4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia. (5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine. (6) HTS is town. I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there. What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.) I find it null, and I don't like most of the rest of her play, Eden. 1. I've seen hosts run more than one miller, and this is a 17p game. Debunked. 2. Debunked because of 1. Also, there being the potential of more than one miller makes the play less risky. 3. Debunked because of 1 and 2. 4. Debunked because of 2 (I'm not sure if she takes risks much as scum, having only seen her scum game once.) 5. Not a point if the first 4 aren't valid. 6. See 5. You are not seeing the difference between a 17 player game were HtS claimed miller instantly and there could legitimately be more than one miller in the game, vice a 13 player game where marv was townread for CCing a miller claim which genuinely did run a high chance of seeing him lynched if he was scum fake-claiming. That neither you nor HtS understand this is frankly mind-boggling to me >< and why I think you're full of it.
"I've seen it before" doesn't debunk "Hosts typically don't do this." I didn't say hosts never do this. I did say that hosts tend not to do this. Multiple millers in a game is pretty significant cop hate. There's no compelling reason why they can't do this, I just know in my experience that they don't. It just doesn't happen. And where did you see this happen, anyway? I'm not familiar with any games recently that did this, and you didn't raise an example of it when it came up in Horn of Africa (although I guess it didn't matter, given the different context). I also don't think the size of the game makes a big difference, 2+ millers is just awkward and atypical in most games.
The part about cc'ing a claim is a pretty good one, maybe I should have been more serious about attempting to cc in the first place. Oops.
The boldface part bothers me. If you explained this before, why not just quote it to me so I see it, since I obviously missed it before? If you didn't, why did I have to drag this explanation out of you? In either case, why are you reading so uncharitably into my argument when no one before you had explicitly argued this point with me?
I admit though, the point about not cc'ing is a pretty good one, and after I saw the un-cc'd miller play I stopped reading her posts carefully enough to see if I felt her questions were what I expect from her town game. So if she's not auto-town due to miller claim I'm not really sure what she is. Sigh.
Can we kill Kelsier now?
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On February 15 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 13:50 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 13:29 rsoultin wrote:On February 15 2015 13:04 Town Puppy wrote:On February 15 2015 12:45 prplhz wrote:
can anybody explain this hts miller business to me because i don't understand it at all She claimed miller right off the bat. I think it makes her pretty clearly town due to this chain of logic: (1) Hosts don't typically run multiple millers in a game. Therefore, claiming miller is in effect claiming something like named VT. (2) If there is a miller in the game, and HTS is not the miller, then HTS will almost certainly be lynched as mafia (possibly d1, if not then d2). (3) Thus, HTS's only hope in fakeclaiming miller is that there isn't a miller in the game to cc her, because if there is she basically just gave herself up. (4) HTS is traditionally not a high-risk player (in my estimation), which makes her an unlikely candidate to have attempted such a high-risk strategy as mafia. (5) Thus, it is likely that HTS's claim is genuine. (6) HTS is town. I think the only thing in that chain that can plausibly be falsified is (4) - maybe she's a higher-risk player than I'm aware. No one has attempted to do so, though. 1-3 is ironclad and 5-6 follow from 1-3 + 4, so unless someone can demonstrate that HTS is reasonably likely to have attempted a high-risk play like this, there's really no reason not to take her claim at face value and go from there. What's bothering me most is that there are multiple people in the thread - rso and LS are the ones who come to mind, but they aren't alone - who more or less accept this reasoning (because they just played another game where this scenario occurred), and who aren't contesting (4), but still are finding reasons not to townread HTS. (There's other people, like rayn, who scumread her as well, but I'm less inclined to be worried about that because his reasoning had nothing to do with this logic at all, and I'm reasonably certain he hasn't seen this argument before. rso and LS have.) I find it null, and I don't like most of the rest of her play, Eden. 1. I've seen hosts run more than one miller, and this is a 17p game. Debunked. 2. Debunked because of 1. Also, there being the potential of more than one miller makes the play less risky. 3. Debunked because of 1 and 2. 4. Debunked because of 2 (I'm not sure if she takes risks much as scum, having only seen her scum game once.) 5. Not a point if the first 4 aren't valid. 6. See 5. You are not seeing the difference between a 17 player game were HtS claimed miller instantly and there could legitimately be more than one miller in the game, vice a 13 player game where marv was townread for CCing a miller claim which genuinely did run a high chance of seeing him lynched if he was scum fake-claiming. That neither you nor HtS understand this is frankly mind-boggling to me >< and why I think you're full of it. "I've seen it before" doesn't debunk "Hosts typically don't do this." I didn't say hosts never do this. I did say that hosts tend not to do this. Multiple millers in a game is pretty significant cop hate. There's no compelling reason why they can't do this, I just know in my experience that they don't. It just doesn't happen. And where did you see this happen, anyway? I'm not familiar with any games recently that did this, and you didn't raise an example of it when it came up in Horn of Africa (although I guess it didn't matter, given the different context). I also don't think the size of the game makes a big difference, 2+ millers is just awkward and atypical in most games. The part about cc'ing a claim is a pretty good one, maybe I should have been more serious about attempting to cc in the first place. Oops. The boldface part bothers me. If you explained this before, why not just quote it to me so I see it, since I obviously missed it before? If you didn't, why did I have to drag this explanation out of you? In either case, why are you reading so uncharitably into my argument when no one before you had explicitly argued this point with me? I admit though, the point about not cc'ing is a pretty good one, and after I saw the un-cc'd miller play I stopped reading her posts carefully enough to see if I felt her questions were what I expect from her town game. So if she's not auto-town due to miller claim I'm not really sure what she is. Sigh. Can we kill Kelsier now? I'm reading it "uncharitably" because it is the premise you're using to argue that KSC is scum, and because HtS' excuse for claiming miller (marv did it so it must be the ideal play) is inherently false if you were in the game, and you were xP There were multiple millers in Carol, which was a little bigger than this, but not by much. Giving someone a hard townread for a miller claim just does not make sense. Even marv's claim, which was objectively way more townie, you questioned, so yeah, of course it seems like BS to me when you're accepting hers on faith -_- The VA thing with KSC just doesn't read as alignment-indicative to me. I'd be just as happy to vote VA with BH as KSC with you; that's how little impact it makes.
No, it's not the premise. It's one premise of three (the other two being his pretty sketchy read on Vayne and his relative absence / lack of involvement in the discussion relative to previous games I've seen him play as town).
"inherently false"?
Yes, I am being less paranoid about role claims after Horn of Africa, for the obvious reason that marv was clearly town and I spent a shitload of time tilting at windmills that game because I didn't accept pretty clear logic for him being innocent.
And uhh...
I'd be just as happy to vote VA with BH as KSC with you; that's how little impact it makes.
(1) Blazinghand - rsoultin
Huh? If you're saying my case is so bad that I'm as likely to be right as the guy you're scumreading picking a random player, I don't see THAT at all. Are you going to explain how someone describing behavior that's not alignment-indicative as "scummy" (and apparently the most suspicious thing in the game, given the vote) "just doesn't read as alignment-indicative" to you?
And do you even think BH is mafia?
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On February 15 2015 14:18 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2015 14:13 Town Puppy wrote:
No, it's not the premise. It's one premise of three (the other two being his pretty sketchy read on Vayne and his relative absence / lack of involvement in the discussion relative to previous games I've seen him play as town). I need to look more fully into your case, but off the cuff, I am inclined to take his inactivity in of itself as NAI. He announced his engagement to his GF of 4 years in the Void game, so I'm willing to bet that V-Day took a huge chunk of his time away from playing.
did not know this, that actually does change my perspective quite a bit
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Hey I'm back but super busy with work. Will not be able to catch up before EOD.
Did I see that someone claimed a role? If so who.
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On February 16 2015 05:37 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 05:36 Town Puppy wrote:
Hey I'm back but super busy with work. Will not be able to catch up before EOD.
Did I see that someone claimed a role? If so who. BlazingHand claimed Jail Keeper.
Lol game is easy
Will the real Lord Percy please stand up?
Oh wait I already am
##VOTE: Blazinghand
Get fucked sson
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BOW BEFORE YOUR LORD AND SAVIOR PERCY PERCY
RNGESUS THA FRAUD
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On February 16 2015 05:39 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 05:38 Town Puppy wrote:On February 16 2015 05:37 LightningStrike wrote:On February 16 2015 05:36 Town Puppy wrote:
Hey I'm back but super busy with work. Will not be able to catch up before EOD.
Did I see that someone claimed a role? If so who. BlazingHand claimed Jail Keeper. Lol game is easy Will the real Lord Percy please stand up? Oh wait I already am ##VOTE: BlazinghandGet fucked sson Did you just counter claim him?
Count on it amigo
RIP Blazinghand
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Hey technically
Since JK is in the game due to RNG
Are we RNG lynching Blazinghand???
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On February 16 2015 05:41 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 05:40 Town Puppy wrote:On February 16 2015 05:39 LightningStrike wrote:On February 16 2015 05:38 Town Puppy wrote:On February 16 2015 05:37 LightningStrike wrote:On February 16 2015 05:36 Town Puppy wrote:
Hey I'm back but super busy with work. Will not be able to catch up before EOD.
Did I see that someone claimed a role? If so who. BlazingHand claimed Jail Keeper. Lol game is easy Will the real Lord Percy please stand up? Oh wait I already am ##VOTE: BlazinghandGet fucked sson Did you just counter claim him? Count on it amigo RIP Blazinghand If BH flips Jail Keeper you're going to the pound 
Nah then I'll just jail someone and hope they're a PR so they get rb'd. Then we lynch UoN for putting multiple jailers with the same name in the game.
But there's no way this happens bc he's mafia
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ATTENTION EVERYONE
BLAZINGHAND IS THE MOST FRAUDULENT FRAUD THAT EVER DEFRAUDED
WE ARE LYNCHING HIS FRAUDULENT FAKECLAIMING FRAUDNESS ASAP
YOU'RE WELCOME
SIGNED
TOWN PUPPY AKA EDEN AKA GOAT
ANTI-FRAUD ACTIVIST, ESQUIRE
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On February 16 2015 05:44 KelsierSC wrote:
Puppy what do you think about VA right now?
Idk haven't caught up on shit LOL
The important thing that comes to mind is that BH choosing VA says nothing about VA's alignment. The selection process he uses is 100% open and outside of his control. So don't think that BH being mafia and trying to RNG lynch VA means anything. On its own it doesn't. Look to see if he pushed it hard or not and for whether VA is scummy independent of BH. That will give you your answer
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On February 16 2015 05:49 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2015 05:48 Town Puppy wrote:On February 16 2015 05:44 KelsierSC wrote:
Puppy what do you think about VA right now? Idk haven't caught up on shit LOL The important thing that comes to mind is that BH choosing VA says nothing about VA's alignment. The selection process he uses is 100% open and outside of his control. So don't think that BH being mafia and trying to RNG lynch VA means anything. On its own it doesn't. Look to see if he pushed it hard or not and for whether VA is scummy independent of BH. That will give you your answer he sort of did with his, "let's consolidate, there is no one better, lets lynch VA!" I don't know man I was just wondering what you thought about VA independently of BH claiming but I guess you can't look back without being booty blinded
I promise to catch up and give EoN reads which will include a read on him. It's just been a busy weekend here, I almost missed the chance to cc BH at all - got lucky enough to catch a break and happened to notice a claim
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I've read like 20pg of this game total. Lol
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Rumor has it that Blazinghand, 28*, was seen speeding away from the site of the wreckage in an 04 blue Camry. Suspect's vehicle is adorned with French flags and has the license plate "SUX2SUK." Please report any sightings to local police.
*: estimated
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Back to work. Don't fuck this up! Someone quote my bolded msg every pg please.
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On February 16 2015 05:45 Town Puppy wrote:
ATTENTION EVERYONE
BLAZINGHAND IS THE MOST FRAUDULENT FRAUD THAT EVER DEFRAUDED
WE ARE LYNCHING HIS FRAUDULENT FAKECLAIMING FRAUDNESS ASAP
YOU'RE WELCOME
SIGNED
TOWN PUPPY AKA EDEN AKA GOAT
ANTI-FRAUD ACTIVIST, ESQUIRE
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EPT
