EPTPart of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now.
Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 9
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Part of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 09:12 Trfel wrote: Jarjarbinks, it would be great if you would make yourself extremely clear town so I don't have to worry about this. Can you do that for me?Sorry for the post spam. My thoughts are coming more randomly at the moment. Part of me is wondering if rsoultin was killed to help hide a mafia!jarjarbinks. I'm not at all confident in reading a Day 2 jarjarbinks, in the past I've just used rsoultin for that read. Still, though, rsoultin seemed pretty convinced that jarjarbinks is town, so I guess I'll work with that for now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 09:26 The Shining wrote: I'm not scum. I could write a book on why I'm not scum. I don't think that is necessary, and I'm hoping that my filter speaks for itself.I'm having trouble with that, too, Trfel. I'm also having trouble with her last few reads. Pretty drunk off of WIFOM. Was she killed to immortalize your town read or frame me with her suspicions? In my experience, scum likes to kill a strong townie after they strong town a scum player. Student Mafia V, we killed GB right after he strong towned me. Trfel, you're not doing that again, are you? I'm taking a break to go eat dinner but something isn't sitting right with that RSo kill. I'll be back. There are several reasons for why rsoultin was killed. I will list all of them. [list][*]Rsoultin has been a very solid townread for basically everyone, if not everyone (I will check and see if anyone was not townreading rsoultin). In addition, she's played really well for Day 1 and Night 1. [*]Rsoultin has had the biggest filter, and also been the most important at generating discussion. If mafia recognized this, the night kill makes a lot of sense to reduce the activity of town. [*]Doctor save dodge (please please please don't take offense! I doubt that this is the case, and even if this was the reason for the night kill, then the mafia are stupid. But if I'm going to be listing all of the reasons for a night kill, this has to be included.) [*]Clear some of the pressure on mafia players. [*]Make town mislynch a townie who rsoultin was targeting, since town thought that they were trying to take the pressure off of them. Ironically, I don't think it is wise for mafia to kill someone who is townreading them to keep the townread saved away for future use. It's more useful to have that player continually state that they are townreading the mafia in the thread  My point is, night kill analysis is WIFOM. Guessing the reason for the night kill is extremely difficult to do that I don't think it is worth the effort. What is worth the effort is rereading rsoultin's filter and how everyone has read/interacted with rsoultin, given the information that rsoultin is town. I'm probably going to skim-read the entire thread, and take a detailed look at everything mentioning rsoultin. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 09:33 Trfel wrote: I guess I deserve that for not previewing it first. I hope it's still clear enough to read.I'm not scum. I could write a book on why I'm not scum. I don't think that is necessary, and I'm hoping that my filter speaks for itself. There are several reasons for why rsoultin was killed. I will list all of them. [list][*]Rsoultin has been a very solid townread for basically everyone, if not everyone (I will check and see if anyone was not townreading rsoultin). In addition, she's played really well for Day 1 and Night 1. [*]Rsoultin has had the biggest filter, and also been the most important at generating discussion. If mafia recognized this, the night kill makes a lot of sense to reduce the activity of town. [*]Doctor save dodge (please please please don't take offense! I doubt that this is the case, and even if this was the reason for the night kill, then the mafia are stupid. But if I'm going to be listing all of the reasons for a night kill, this has to be included.) [*]Clear some of the pressure on mafia players. [*]Make town mislynch a townie who rsoultin was targeting, since town thought that they were trying to take the pressure off of them. Ironically, I don't think it is wise for mafia to kill someone who is townreading them to keep the townread saved away for future use. It's more useful to have that player continually state that they are townreading the mafia in the thread My point is, night kill analysis is WIFOM. Guessing the reason for the night kill is extremely difficult to do that I don't think it is worth the effort. What is worth the effort is rereading rsoultin's filter and how everyone has read/interacted with rsoultin, given the information that rsoultin is town. I'm probably going to skim-read the entire thread, and take a detailed look at everything mentioning rsoultin. I'll be off for a while, but I am determined to get this next lynch right. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 09:22 jarjarbinks wrote: Jarjarbinks, are you still there? Did you finish reading Tere yet?Lol you've been in my past games. I think I'm getting better but who knows. I'm workin up my Tere right now but im free to chat with after | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 10:38 jarjarbinks wrote: You said you were going to provide thoughts on Tere. Do you have them ready?Sorry I just got back. Whatsup? | ||
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Trfel
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Last game The Shining played, he was mafia. I was also in that game, and I was mafia. I opened with a controversial opening that made me the center of attention. This game, I opened with a controversial opening again, which made me the center of attention for the first page or so (not very long). The Shining was suspicious of me, as expected. However, he townread Hier for proposing the Bridges method because it put him in the spotlight. Hrm. On February 17 2015 04:25 rsoultin wrote: I guess that takes a lot of the steam out of the mafia!jarjarbinks idea. Then again...He's calling me mean ;o; Okay, so, I know this means nothing to y'all probably, but my brother is reading very genuine to me this game. If you wonder why I'm joking around with him, a lot of it is to see how he responds (and a slightly smaller portion just cause I enjoy him  ). Granted, I haven't seen him play scum, but I'd bet he's town this game. Just my two cents.On February 17 2015 10:54 rsoultin wrote: It could be argued that JJB might know too much, and his game looks so much better than his last ones that lol I have had a seed of doubt or two, not gonna lie. However he was very active keeping the discussion open so I think he's probably still town. On February 18 2015 00:42 rsoultin wrote: Now I'm really wishing that I had asked rsoultin to elaborate on this instead of intentionally avoiding discussion on the topic. I have absolutely no idea why she would say this. Does anyone know?Lol, I gotcha, and no worries. This was always approached with a grain of salt, and I actually think it counts against her more than for her. On February 18 2015 08:36 rsoultin wrote: Rsoultin is scumreading The Shining while I am not, but all the same, I will keep this in mind.Alright, Shining, lol. I must admit that the only thing bugging me really was your behavior around EoD, so it gets a pass for now. If you keep doing that shit, though, I'll try my darndest to get you lynched I did half-catch you last time so I can put the paranoia away for a little while longer. | ||
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Trfel
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On February 18 2015 11:00 jarjarbinks wrote: 1. It's not WIFOM because Hier was lynched, not night killed. Given the nature of the lynch, the best you can take from this is that Hier was scumreading Tere. There's not much else to be said here.I'm not gonna lie, I am less confident in this one. Tere: 1: Hier voted for Tere: This is definitely WIFOM. This is also based on numbers I've seen and will be hard to explain, but I will try my best. WIFOM reads are generally perceived as 50-50. From what I have seen in previous (non-newbie games), WIFOM reads from town are actually decent reads on average. Better than 50-50. Especially the reads where the dead townie voted for someone on his/her own. This is great (and you could say hard for me to prove) but you do have to ask yourself if Hier was simply retaling (if forgot the acronym) Tere's aggressive lynch or if he was on to something. I honestly think Hier believed in his vote, which makes me think Tere is more suspicious. 2. Sometimes Tier has been unresponsive to rather simple or weak pokes at her. I've never played with her before and she could play this way as town, but I think this is suspicious. I think this argument has been made by others, so I won't dive too hard, but it is suspicious. 3. Tere was in the bandwagon group, at least to begin with, but then went hard on Hier as time went on. In my eyes, this shows she acted the most like town of the four (Tere, Trf, Silver, Elyas). I put her in this group because she initially bandwagonned. Making a caveat to my own biases, I perceived her to act like my sister due to the first few posts she's made. I will try not to do that in the future. 2. It's probably best for townies not to respond to weak pokes. If townies are too caught up in defending every single suspicion someone raises against them, not only does that detract from their own scumhunting, but it distracts the entire thread. On the contrary, I actually felt that she was a bit too responsive to my suspicions of her when I admitted they were unfounded in the exact same post. Since End of Day, many people have expressed suspicions of Tere, and she has just said that all will be clear after the Day post. Tere's next few posts will probably be extremely crucial in reading her. Tere, I am very much awaiting an explanation for your posting during the night. You've been hinting at something. Time to reveal. Anyone there who wants to chat? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 12:44 Trfel wrote: So little activity...Anyone there who wants to chat? I miss rsoultin  | ||
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Trfel
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Trfel
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Trfel
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On February 18 2015 13:14 jarjarbinks wrote: Ugh, it sounds like I'm going to need to dig up meta on this guy to see if he needs to be lynched or not.I didn't respond because part of it sounded hypocritical about the bandwagon thing coming from you and I didn't like how you EOD'd. GIve me a sec, I'll do it by point. Jarjarbinks, I'm having tons of trouble trying to get an accurate read on you. Do you have any suggestions? Otherwise, I'll think of something, I hope... | ||
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Trfel
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On February 18 2015 13:19 jarjarbinks wrote: That settles it, you're getting lynched I think I originally treated her like she was on Rso's level (no offense lol) and I think I should have treated her more like on your or Shining's level. | ||
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Trfel
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On February 18 2015 13:31 jarjarbinks wrote: That's precisely the argument. It takes no effort to say what makes sense, what sounds right. But the goal isn't to lynch the person who says incorrect things, the goal is to lynch the mafia. I didn't see that in Tere's filter on Day 1."Tere does not seem to separate player skill from her reads" True but look around. Rso was universally townread. You were pretty townread by most if not all. You could probably say this for most of us. More experienced players play this game better and are better at appearing town. You could make an argument that her reads based on skill show a lack of effort? | ||
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Trfel
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Thanks a bunch for answering my request. I took a cursory look at your posts, I'll definitely take a more through look tomorrow. (tonight I am reading ElyAs, tomorrow on to other people) | ||
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Trfel
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I feel like we base our play around completely different things, and we look for entirely different things. Thus, for me to get an accurate read on you, I have to do it by your standards, but I'm having trouble figuring out how to go about that. The biggest example of this is that you immediately dismissed my case on Tere because I myself am guilty of some of the things I mentioned in the case. I place a ton of value on subjective arguments and the validity of various arguments, as well as the level of critical thinking shown. Meanwhile, I'm under the impression that you look for more reasons that are purely objective, such as votes, night kills, and numbers. Is this a correct assessment? I don't know if you are town based on filter length alone. I don't know if you are town based on potentially fooling rsoultin. I have no scumgame of yours to look at for information. Therefore, the more reads you can provide, it would help a ton. I really really want to get this lynch, and it's going to require ALL townies to raise their game. I know that I'm going to try and put in a ton more effort. What is your overall conclusion on my case on Tere? Is it good or bad? How does this affect your stance on Tere and myself, and why? Thanks a ton for being willing to discuss with me. It's immensely helpful. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2015 13:45 jarjarbinks wrote: I think he is probably town. For all of Day 1, I actually think that his play was not that scummy. His play for Night 1 has been lackluster, but I can overlook that for now. I'm also hoping for a lot from him on Day 2.It's all good. Thoughts on Elyas so far? Note that I still have a lot of analysis on him to do, and I am really slow, so you should probably go to bed before I finish. As to Tere's read on The Shining, I'm sorry I can't really answer that now. I think it was better, but I'm not really sure yet. I've been postponing looking closer at Tere until she finally reveals her intentions from Night 1, I hope you can understand why. | ||
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Trfel
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On February 18 2015 13:55 jarjarbinks wrote: Okay, thanks. I'll have to accept the fact that you are probably town. Though I hope you understand that I still need to make a detailed check of your filter and your past games.It's cool. Yes lol I look at objective things more than subjective, because well I suck at the subjective. I'm trying to get better as these games go on but honestly this game is not my forte. I've spent more hours building a spreadsheet that most vets disapprove of lol I haven't gone a game where people besides my sister think i'm actually town. Null maybe? Town definitely not lol I actually have never played scum so I can't help you there lol The only thing I can think of doing is provide you as much information as possible. I think I was being devil's advocate when commenting on your case lol You made some points I agree on. The effort thing is something to look into. She has a pretty high filter, but effort on scumhunting is what matters. I'm not suspicious enough to lynch her at the moment, but I would favor her over zfelin for sure lol As to the last part of my question, how did this discussion and my case on Tere affect your read on me? And far more importantly, why? (note that there is no set right/wrong answer to this question, I'm interested in the explanation). Then you can go to sleep XD | ||
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