EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 21
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 23 2015 09:23 zlefin wrote: Look who showed up right after the deadline.Going to sleep soon, will look over the cases tomorrow. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
But I'll admit that at the moment, I'm really not liking this situation at all. I want to blame the hosts for giving Palmar the wrong role PM. Ugh...... I'll be needing to filter dive everyone still alive (except myself, of course). And then I'll take a careful look at Tere/Palmar's filter, and then Silverarte's filter. Ugh. I don't want to lose at LYLO. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
And night kills are WIFOM, it will be hard to make any conclusion at all based on it. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I am town. I am very confident that The Shining is town, and I think that assuming I die tonight, I will need to be willing to accept losing to mafia!The Shining (The Shining, if you are mafia, your play has been truly inspired). If I don't die tonight, maybe I can find some time to reread him, but I will play assuming that I die tonight. Fortunately, we will have at least one very likely town alive for LYLO, so our chances of RNG lynching scum are about 50%. I think that jarjarbinks is town and that zlefin is scum. The Shining thinks that zlefin is town and jarjarbinks is scum. This is the perfect opportunity for mafia night kill WIFOM, and therefore at least The Shining and I (Trfel) need to take into full consideration the reads of the dead player. And to be honest, if we can set this lynch before the end of the night, I don't think that's bad. I don't think we will be able to, as we don't have enough time, but that would be ideal to me. I'm going to go reread the entire thread. I don't know if I am going to case zlefin. While it would be good to case both zlefin and jarjarbinks and see what is stronger, I don't think I have the luxury of that. I would prefer to figure out conclusively which of them is scum, and then they actually won't even need to be cased. The likely scenario is that one of me (Trfel) or The Shining dies. Zlefin and jarjarbinks will probably vote for each other, leaving whichever of me and The Shining is alive to choose the lynch, so really a case isn't entirely necessary. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 23 2015 08:58 Palmar wrote: I'm quoting this for safe keeping. Palmar is smart, listen to him.also reevaluate everything in lylo. Don't scumhunt in lylo using what is being posted in lylo, just use whatever was posted in the previous days and go off of that. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I am most likely to be town because I have been leading town for most of the game. I have provided many reads, made cases, and always been open with my thoughts. The Shining is next most likely to be town because he has been constantly scumhunting, making controversial reads, thinking critically, and continued to scumhunt even when the lynch seemed settled on Tere/Palmar. Jarjarbinks is next most likely to be town because his play has shown indications of scumhunting and critical thinking. I have liked the honesty he has used in his posts. Zlefin is most likely to be scum because while his play was good in the early part of the game, it seems to have dropped off as of late. His play over the last day was a bit less than remarkable, though I can't scumread him for that alone, of course. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
And again, I make cases if I want to push something. If I don't see a need to push something, I won't make a case. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm assuming mafia is either jarjarbinks or zlefin. I actually think that jarjarbinks has generally seemed to be town this game (for his standards). I can see him thinking through things and analyzing, even if he rarely reaches the conclusion that I would. In addition, he has done some things that seem towny. Notably, he hammered Silverarte instead of voting for me. While it's possible that this could be a bus, I think it's more likely that jarjarbinks is town here. Meanwhile, zlefin's play has seemed unreliable. He was generally scumread early on, and then I made a post defending him. That post also told him what he could do to make it look like he was scumhunting. Guess what, he took my advice, and since then he has been mostly above suspicion. I feel like his play has died off since then, and my defense of him cleared him when it should not have. Now that I think about it, it's hard to think of reasons to townread him. I'm looking through zlefin's filter. It's hard to come up with things that are scummy in it. But it's also hard to come up with things that are towny. He seems really careful and cautious (note that this isn't necessarily a scum tell). In contrast, jarjarbinks's filter shows several scummy things, but also several towny things. In general, his reads and stances are much more memorable than those of zlefin. And that is why I want to lynch zlefin instead. As for jarjarbinks' decision to vote to lynch Silverarte instead of me, remember that missing that lynch would have put town at 5 player LYLO. In addition, my flip would make Tere look quite bad for pushing for my lynch. If jarjarbinks was indeed scum, one can assume that he saw the votes and voted to kill me instead of his partner Silverarte, and then went to the scum QT and was told to bus instead, so he switched. However, while this would provide strong connections between jarjarbinks and Silverarte, with town at LYLO that might never be an issue. There is definitely a real possibility of a jarjarbinks bus on Silverarte, but I still think that is less likely than a town jarjarbinks voting for scum instead of town. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2015 05:06 zlefin wrote: This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte.....I believe that's a good analysis, and would like to hear Silver's rebuttal. Also, if you think it's silver, any idea on who they're working with? I'm starting to try to think on pairwise analysis to see who looks too in sync. On February 20 2015 06:11 zlefin wrote: Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response.Like I say, I could see a Trfel/Silver team as a possibility, as I looked over how things were done. I maintain silver is a great target right now. I'm suspicious of Tere as well, more suspicious than I am of trfel. This post looks bad Just a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
He's being extremely cautious. His posts seem to be putting in effort to look towny. He is really cautious with his stance on Silverarte. He's always staying under the radar, seeming to scumhunt but never really memorable. One of those alone is not incriminating, but combined? I think he is scum trying to avoid being lynched at all costs. I'm going to sleep now. Very interested to hear thoughts. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 23 2015 20:21 zlefin wrote: when did I give silver a cautious town read? I'm asking because I don't remember doing that; and my point system shows no town points for silver. On February 18 2015 05:02 zlefin wrote: Here you go.Looking through SilverArte's filter, I have a better feel about it; it feels good, but I'm not sure if that's a town sense I'm getting, or just general friendliness, I think it might just be the friendliness, because when I think of specific issues of concern I had with elyas (low overall quantity, lack of originality) it looks like those are still present, though definitely not to the same problematic degree as Elyas's filter. Silver's definitely feel more helpful, and somewhat contentful. I'd also like to hear other's reactions to this assessment. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2015 02:02 zlefin wrote: I don't like how you are trying to justify previous actions by saying why they don't look scummy instead of why they aren't scummy. It's a minor wording thing, but you seem to be defending myself by "look, I didn't mess up" instead of "no, I'm town".I'm not sure I call this a townread; it's a town-favorable impression, which was reducing the prior scum-impression. It depends whether by townread you mean thinking someone is town, or thinking something pushes someone closer to being town. If the latter, yes; if the former, not really, it looks too neutral for that. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
The Shining, extremely well played. Remember earlier, when I said night kills are WIFOM? I kind of lied. My goal was to make mafia think that I would place the night kill completely on WIFOM, but if there was ever a time where night kill analysis would be useful, it would be right now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2015 10:14 zlefin wrote: Is that really what it is? I thought that the rule in question only applied if it was clear that it would be that way before the day began. Therefore, I think if we have a 1-1-1 split, whoever gets voted for first is the one who is lynched.Hmmm, so two of us have to agree on which other one to lynch, as per the rules on end-game votes. That said, we had better have two people on the same target. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
That said, if anyone has any questions for me whatsoever, I will do my best to answer. You two should be interested in determining my alignment, and if there is anything I can do to help you with that, please let me know. I'm going to start by rereading the game and taking note of everything that you two did. | ||
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