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On January 28 2015 05:25 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Untouchable Votecount
GlowingBear (3): Half the Sky, IAmRobik, VisceraEyes, GlowingBear, Paulmark, Toadesstern
Onegu (2): Eden1892, liancourt
liancourt (1): Toadesstern, Onegu, Eden1892
Paulmark (1): VisceraEyes, GlowingBear
Toadesstern (0): GlowingBear, liancourt, Paulmark
IAmRobik (0): GlowingBear, Paulmark
Eden1892 (0): liancourt
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline is in . If no majority is reached before then, the day will be a no lynch.
Lmao
qtpi I'll get to ya questions in a sec, quadruple-tasking atm lol
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On January 28 2015 04:42 Half the Sky wrote:
Alright Eden, then, since you are waiting on him, let's change focus to Palmar and VE.
I am assuming you've had plenty of game time with Palmar. If this is not the case, then guess we'll have to move on.
I have been taking a lot of people here at face value in general simply because I've not played with them.
Right now, nothing that I've seen from VE is inherently scummy. I don't know if he's posting more/less relative to other games, for example.
Palmar I didn't like his trolling. When he comes in, his arguments on Toad did make sense but just that I was much more convinced on GB. But then he puts vote #4 under policy, when at least two others (Robik and myself) were scumreading him.
So that begs the question why Palmar didn't check our scumreads. Does this make sense?
A little face time with him, yeah. Not enough to really have a meaningful meta read on him, though - two games, one in which he was nightkilled n1 and one in which I was.
I felt like Palmar was more trolly to start than normal; he tends to ease his way into games, but it took longer and was more exaggerated than I remember. And then oddly enough once he started trying, he seemed more invested than I remember, too. Shrug.
What do you mean by check your scumreads?
And I honestly haven't seen anything from VE that gave me much of an impression that I remember.
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i'm not reading all that shit lmfao
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On January 28 2015 06:52 VisceraEyes wrote:
##Vote: GlowingBear
I'm not sure if that was missed or whatever.
^this shit, right here. stop it
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i don't know what part of "stop giving scum a chance to cut short our time by 24 hours" y'all don't get
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On January 28 2015 07:23 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 07:03 Eden1892 wrote:On January 28 2015 06:52 VisceraEyes wrote:
##Vote: GlowingBear
I'm not sure if that was missed or whatever. ^this shit, right here. stop it ![[image loading]](http://ih1.redbubble.net/image.9384966.7759/sticker,375x360.png)
A+
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OK, so back to it. I think GlowingBear is town, because:
(a) His lynch has been way too easy. We could have had him already several times if we'd wanted it, and I think if this weren't IML he would have been lynched by now.
(b) I'm inclined to believe him when he says he had a plan with his self-voting. I don't know what the plan is, and he's gonna have to explain it or get lynched, but pending a reasonable-sounding explanation, I'll believe that he's town.
From there I'm gonna go look at the other players. I'm town and I feel pretty strongly that Half the Sky is as well.
The first player I'm looking at is Onegu, because like I said before, if GlowingBear is town, then Onegu is town as well. I explained this early on p46, feel free to look back and see. Onegu is town.
I have a bad feeling about both Robik and Palmar. Robik has been very loud and animated about lynching GlowingBear, who I believe now to be town, and has done very little - nothing noteworthy enough for me to remember, anyway - outside of talking about killing GlowingBear. And from what I recall his original reasoning wasn't very good. Furthermore, I really didn't like the "playing to wincon" part of his accusation against GB. As I noted before, the only way Robik can accuse GB of not playing to win con as confidently as he did is if he knows GB is town, because mafia self-hammering can absolutely be part of the mafia win con (whereas town self-hammering never is part of town win con). Perhaps I'm getting greedy; I don't really believe in "scumslips." But I kinda think this was one.
Palmar, on the other hand, I feel more confident is mafia. I noted on p47 that Palmar seemed like a slightly more exaggerated version of himself in this game; he seemed to be more aggressively trolly/apathetic to start the day and then more aggressively active/ostensibly-helpful once that stopped. In my (limited) experience with Palmar as town, he tends to ease his way into a game; there's very little pushing to the degree he's done here, and his warmup process is slower and smoother. He doesn't go from 0 to 90 fucks given like he has here; it's more of a steady press on the give-a-fuck accelerator. It feels like he dropped a brick on the accelerator this game, like he was trying to make sure no one could question that he was being active and involved now.
Then there's his vote for GlowingBear... HTS already noted it. It's a policy vote, not a vote for mafia. The problem is that it's a policy vote based on GB martyring that's stayed on GB after GB retracted his self-vote. Policy votes are meant to be done to discourage the behavior triggering the policy vote. For them to be effective, then, there must be an incentive to revoke the behavior - a revoked vote in exchange. Palmar hasn't met GB halfway. If he really cares about the policy being effective, why is he not retracting his vote? On the other hand, if Palmar was just looking for a nice-sounding reason to put a vote down on GB (L-1 no less) and walk away, it makes perfect sense.
Toad and VE are still in my null pile; I don't see myself pursuing either of them as lynches today. liancourt, I still think is probably town because I can put myself in what I project to be his shoes and make sense of it from a townie POV.
##UNVOTE: Onegu
##VOTE: Palmar
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I made some tense errors in my argument for Palmar being mafia that lend the impression that his vote is presently on GB. Sorry for the confusion there, he did move it, but it was well after GB retracted and Palmar acknowledged it.
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Then I reread and see this:
On January 28 2015 01:46 GlowingBear wrote:
Palmar, getting behind the martyr policy is the easiest way to avoid responsibility.
And I think GlowingBear is town for real now. It happened hours ago but it's kinda like when two townies simultaneously post the same idea, if I'm reading the sequence of a particular set of events and thinking XYZ and then I keep reading and see XYZ, it makes me think they're town.
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On January 28 2015 08:20 Onegu wrote:
Ok can we talk about my liancourt case? Like since GB stepped off the cliff, and is most likely town doing the same shit I did. I think a liancourt lynch is best, followed by palmar, like getting it pointed out he didn't pollicy lynch someone in another game that martyred is a big red flag. Plus it is highly likely that liancourt is mafia and just wasn't around to hammer GB as he was sleeping because it was like 2am in Korea at the time i think.
I wouldn't say highly likely, but the timezone differential is a good point. I think I'd rather kill Palmar though judging by his reaction in the thread to GB.
btw are you in Thailand? I thought I saw recently you posted that you were in the US
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Cool. So yeah liancourt is the only one who would likely be asleep and afk during that whole incident then.
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Wait hol up Palmar
What is case on Toad
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On January 28 2015 09:59 GlowingBear wrote:
Eden, I've got home.
Ok, listen.
An idea crossed my mind: if I vote myself, I would be two votes away from being hammered.
Obvious scum would get me lynched quickly if both mafia voted me. If that happened, well, town would figure it out very quickly and game over for them.
If both mafia were already voting for me, all they needed to do was to try to convince the thread to vote me.
But what I think would be the most smart play for mafia would be to be airtime wishy washy but then quickly voting me and finally waiting for a townie to vote for me. The guy who would hammer a town would be VERY suspicious. This way, mafia avoids responsibility and gets a townie mislynched.
You see, if you see someone voting for himself, SPECIALLY in an instant majority game like this, you HAVE to take a step back and consider what's going on. You can't jumping to the lynch too quickly because you risk getting a townie mislynched. You have to think about what's going on.
You understand what I'm trying to say here? I voted myself expecting a mafia behaviour, and I saw that behaviour on Palmar.
Holy shit that was actually a lot better than I thought it would be. A+ and I'm not joking. This guy is not the lynch today.
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I also feel better about Palmar for no articulate reason at all.
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On January 28 2015 10:11 Palmar wrote:
Just shut the fuck up GB, this is an awful line of thought.
It really isn't.
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Like I get your frustration esp. if you're town, but that sequence was strange to HTS and me as well. It's not ironclad logic but it's not awful, either.
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On January 28 2015 10:19 Palmar wrote:
However, this bullshit probably makes GB town:
Mafia is in toad, lian, onegu.
can't be Onegu
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On January 28 2015 04:22 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2015 04:20 Half the Sky wrote:
If GB somehow isn't mafia, this would have to mean Palmar AND Onegu ARE scum.
Because Robik and I were ALREADY on him. But Onegu was NOT sold and thought GB was martyring so we cannot make that association. I'm not following your conclusion here, Onegu not hammering town!GB and defending him instead is an odd decision to make if Onegu is mafia. GB gift-wrapped himself to be lynched there, Onegu could have just been like "lol policy vote martyrs" and no one would really have batted an eye. If GB is town then I think Onegu has to be town too.
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or as an addendum to the above Onegu could have just afk'd and not cared.
But if you think GB is town then Onegu coming in and defending a townie at L-1 is like absolutely the last thing mafia would do lol.
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Palmar I quoted why on Onegu before
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EPT
