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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
From Town to null - Tubesock- He’s actively trying to solve the game. A good insomnia post of his - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=33#659 with good reads. Half the Sky – she shows intent to solve the game, gives reads, http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=32#633 is a good example of trying to solve the game. Rsolutin – Asking questions, trying to steer us in the right direction, warning others about bluefishing (a scummy trait) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=14#278 – --slight town Exo_ - Seems to be reading and solving and giving his reads as well - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=33#641 – slight town Scum – In order from least to most scummy Jarjarbinks – Although he is giving reads, He’s a mixed bag with a lot of fluff. null/scum lean for now. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=43#851 Silverarte – Asks a bunch of questions without responding to ones they are asked. Trying to fly under the radar. Leaning scum Celestial-I don’t like the timing when he claimed – He was under very little pressure. He hasn’t been counterclaimed though. Vet and Doc might be OP. If he isn’t shot tonight (although he could save himself, doesn’t say anything in the OP that he cannot) I’d probably lynch him after The Shining. Leaning scum The Shining – scum – refuses to move his vote for both mislynches, tries to lay under the radar, says he’s solving the game but is not. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
So let's look over what rsolutin says - On January 11 2015 08:59 rsoultin wrote: Okay, well...we're running out of time for the night phase, so I'm going to put my thoughts into one post. Town reads: HTS, Tube, JarJar (less certain on my brother and almost completely certain on the other two, but he legitimately does predictions based on statistics for a living and his voting patterns have been logical and in-line with his reads) Nullish/Do Not Lynch Day 3: -Celestial-, Scott (doc claim/breadcrumbs and AFK replacement respectively) Would Lynch: - ExO (90% certain) his scumhunting seems more like throwing darts at a board (at the risk of sounding hypocritical) and his read progression/interactions with Trfel at EoD Day 1 especially, including the rage!fit after the flip, seem insincere to me...a good idea would be to check if his pushes start up after thread sentiment has already begun to swing that way (I know the Celestial one did) - Shining (70% certain) for his start that I think I've mentioned a few times now, but also this oddity of completely dropping any pressure on ExO after WW flipped for no apparent reason...even goes so far as to say that there might be scum on the LS wagon but still gives ExO a bye when the only other one there was WW, says he's taking the game seriously after Day 2 but mostly just posts defensive posts and a push on -Celestial-, then finally ends with his only post of Night 2: a WIFOM game balance argument that Celeste must be scum cause this game can't possibly have a doctor (why when we don't know the set-up at all?) - Silver (least certain) she never stepped up. could be newb play, but all I see from her filter is sheeping and I'm not getting the feeling that she cares to find scum, especially since she dropped the people she was scumreading to sheep me Day 1 (which is sad to say cause I <3 my silver ^^)...her big posts only come after she's prodded for them, contain a lot of fluff, and the rest are mostly excuses Final Comment: With the breadcrumbing, I think that Celestial is a likely mislynch. Please, if I am not here to provide my input, whatever you decide, be really certain before you lynch an un-CCd role. I think the shining is a better lynch though and I'll explain why - So The Shining voted on both mislynches, and never changed his vote. His reasoning for voting LightningStrike was pretty weak, IMO – Day 1 Final Vote Count jarjarbinks (1): ExO_, -Celestial- LightningStrike (2): ExO_, -Celestial-, Trfel, TheWarWaffle Gumdrop (0): Tubesock TheWarWaffle (5): rsoultin,LightningStrike, Silverarte, Tubesock, The Shining Tubesock (0): TheWarWaffle ExO_ (1): Gumdrop, The Shining The Shining (3): Half the Sky,Trfel, jarjarbinks Day 2 LightningStrike (7): The Shining, jarjarbinks, -Celestial-, Tubesock, Half the Sky, ExO_, rsoultin The Shining (0): LightningStrike -Celestial- (1): ExO_, LightningStrike, Tubesock, ExO_, rsoultin, Silverarte ExO_ (1): LightningStrike Not Voting (1): Gumdrop On January 08 2015 10:01 The Shining wrote: Currently, a bit of this is association reads, as I think Celestial's vote on mafia(Jar Jar) will look good later in the game if JJ flips scum. I'm most sure, though, of LS being scum here, especially with that last post before EoN. For whatever reason, Mafia like to afk the vote. ##Vote: LightningStrike http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=31#608 He AFK votes himself on LS, and says himself “mafia like to afk the vote.” Is he trying to blend in? He doesn’t listen to reason to change his vote, either. As for LS and Jar Jar, I've only ever played with Jar Jar once or twice, in much more inactive games, as we all know. So yes, the walls of text posts are out of character to me, as well. I don't like that he tried to direct today with basically no follow through, either. You can't just hint at Trfel's voting me as being the reason he died, then offer absolutely nothing else up. And my vote is staying on LS until I hear a defense. Even then, I'm pretty sure I'll keep it there. I don't believe in the VT claim and I've already stated my reasons for my vote. He's just running some meta information - trying to stay under the radar. On January 06 2015 07:57 The Shining wrote: Let me start by apologizing. I got home from work shortly after my last post and knocked out. I'm now smack dab in my weekend today and tomorrow, though, so I should be able to be more active before Wednesday. Also, I am he, since pronouns seem be coming up this game a lot. XD "It would help if you clarified who the "someone" you're talking about is and what you're actually wondering. Could they be what?" This was RSoultin's last post at the time I questioned her. At first, I was inclined to believe she was just scumhunting when questioning HTS. But after reading and catching up, I'm leaning towards Celestial as town. Celestial basically said what I would've. It looked like she was looking for others who were different from the rest, and under the guise of town, would just look like scumhunting. The Mafia obviously knows who all is town. By jumping around to multiple people, they increase the chances of blue tells. I also don't know Rsoultin's meta on here at all to know if her town play is more aggressive here than other times I've played with her. However, as the thread progressed, HTS seemed to lean increasingly more scummy, which makes me believe Rsoultin is leaning town, after all. WarWaffle questioned a few things in HTS's opening posts and I've yet to see any sort of response to him, although HTS has posted a few times since. And about me a lot. The more you tunnel on me, the more you hope to deflect from the points WW made about you, is that it? ExO was leaning town for me up until the part where he said I look like scummy and called for the vig, assuming we have one, to kill me tonight. And that was it. ExO, unless you're trying to just bandwagon off of someone else's logic, I would really like to know what about my post made me look scummy? Otherwise, you're just taking advantage of HTS pushing suspicion on me and trying to garner support for it before I can defend myself. Mafia would love it if the vig would do their killing for them. You've also already put in a lynch vote. Why so quick to kill? We're required to lynch Day 1 but we still have a lot of time to gather information. Here he's trying to say "Well I read Rsoultin is leaning town" and adds a bunch of keywords and fluff. He doesn't have any solid reads in his filter (and it's extremely small, trying to blend in)- http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?user=The Shining It's lylo 5-3, so we need to hit today or we're screwed guys. ## Vote: The Shining | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
I'm trying to feel your point of view on Silverante (beyond the uselessness I see). Do you think she's a better lynch then Shining? On January 09 2015 11:01 Tubesock wrote: I don't get anything from her list post here. I don't think there is anything memorable in it. Where is she scum hunting? When is the point in the game where your only posts are list posts inappropriate? It's a big long post (which people town sometimes) but where is any point where she shows indepth concern or thinking on someone? I definitely have problems with lacking conviction the longer the game goes. I feel every one of her reads will turn into a sheep vote of one form or another. Just like Lightning but she says nice things that make way more sense than he does. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 01:34 Tubesock wrote: Scott, Is it safe to say your preferred lynch order would be: The Shining -Celestial- Silverarte ? Unless Shining and Silverarte step up to the plate today, Yes. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 03:10 Half the Sky wrote: CASE STUDY: WHY THE SHINING IS MAFIA Introduction This is largely Rasputin's case folks, in terms of ideas and original thought. I have pulled the relevant quotes and/or given references for complete support. I have also added commentary and a few additional points on my own. From her passage N3, in her own words: Pulling the argument piece by piece Relevant quotes from the filter: 1 "for his start that I think I've mentioned a few times now" The above comment, to be fair, TS has responded to this. But I believe she might have been taking this in aggregate with everything else. I had called him out on the first part of the second sentence myself. Regarding the second part, we obviously know that she is town, and even I had not seen any evidence of bluehunting, which I questioned myself. 2 "but also this oddity of completely dropping any pressure on ExO after WW flipped for no apparent reason...even goes so far as to say that there might be scum on the LS wagon but still gives ExO a bye when the only other one there was WW" Post flip: Rasputin has a point with this. I see no visible logic for shifting off ExO in the filter. In fact there was no comment on his thought on ExO since the comment copied above. 3 "says he's taking the game seriously after Day 2 but mostly just posts defensive posts and a push on -Celestial-" The defensive posts are taking questions for the most part, and that can be vouched for on page 2. Same for the push on Celestial. To me, the push on Celestial in of itself isn't scum like behaviour but lack of reads, and progression and scumhunting etc is what might have been the issue. As in, he is not helping town. 4 then finally ends with his only post of Night 2: a WIFOM game balance argument that Celeste must be scum cause this game can't possibly have a doctor (why when we don't know the set-up at all?) If I'm understanding #2 correctly, there is an inconsistency in following why Shining exempts one of the smaller wagons but not another. Which I can see a double standard as problematic. To add my input to #4, the problem I have with this is not only that it's WIFOM but upon review, Celestial actually showed some of the signs of breadcrumbing. From my interpretation of Celestial's filter, relevant quotes are below, operative words in bold. I have before maintained that it is very possible to do this using an example I gave to Tubesock from the Carol game. In a newbie game, I would say the chances are more likely. Another point I want to add is that scum posting tend to fall off towards late game. This is a general statement admittedly, and by itself isn't indicative, as people can lurk all game, but when taken into consideration with other evidence, could be a further issue. The fact he said he'd step it up and didn't is a problem. Finally, when you throw in Scott's individual point about voting on unflipped association (which I've reviewed separately), it does make him look even worse. Feedback from anyone at this point would be appreciated. On aggregate, I feel he is, indeed, a viable lynch. I really like how you explain the #4 part - the WIFOM and parts of the breadcumb. I appreciate the time you took into writing this case. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 03:22 Silverarte wrote: I am here! Reading through what I missed. Sorry guys. I got really sick and posting was a bad, bad idea. >< Hi Silver! Can you tell us what you think of mine and HTS's case? | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 05:02 Silverarte wrote: As far as Rsoultin goes: Oi woman! ><!!! And towny words or not, Tubesock, I think it's time I probably claim with checks considering it's Mylo/Lylo (whatever it is). I'm the Cop. My checks were on Tubesock and ExO_, both clearing as town. The two checks are, I believe, solid. Tubesock has been continually contributing and consisitently. ExO_, unless he's the godfather, is also clear. My spidey senses say and hope he isn't! My checks said town after all! + Show Spoiler + It's said Celestial isn't a viable good push today, I question that. In a game of newbies, how unbalanced would it be if we had a veteran, doc AND cop on the towne side? Rsoultin herself pointed out how scummy Celest's claim on being a doc. Shining is definitely an option, but Celestial still reeks of scum to me. On January 09 2015 14:53 rsoultin wrote: Okay... I won't lynch the following tomorrow under any circumstances: HTS ExO (lesser town read, but still a town read) Those I would prefer not to lynch from strongest to weakest: JarJar (despite the OMGUS moment at his case, was consistent on his reads leading up to the lynch, and voted sensibly) Tubesock (appeared tunneled, took responsibility afterwards, solid posting before and after) Silver (complete null) Shining (suspicious, don't like the lying, but his defense was otherwise convincing and he's improved in Day 2. willing to give him more time) Gumdrop (suspicious, but he hasn't posted hardly at all. the only thing that doesn't make this a policy lynch is the point I asked him to clarify on EoD...and I'd like to see his answer before lynching him) On to lynchables: LS - <3 you, dude, but I think you're a solid lynch + all actives you townread (with the exception of shining at null), and all inactives you null read (scum WW as "worst inactive") - thanks to ExO (I think) for turning me on to this gem + only reaction to WWs soft claim was to ask him to claim + sudden rage after flip and saying you tunneled him...where? your reads put him as basically the worst of your nulls + meta point: afraid of lynching blues in all prior games -Celestial- - not personal either, but you're my top choice + all three lynchwagons were scumread by you in your last Day 1 list post, with waffling back and forth on LS afterwards + kept saying WW lynch felt wrong, yet reacted to blue claim saying it wasn't enough to convince "us" (weren't you already convinced given your posts?) + more about WW lynch feeling wrong, but did nothing about it i.e. tried to get others to vote JarJar with you or change your vote to other two scumreads LS and Shining + lesser point, but you never mention my static vote on WW despite Shining case until I question you...why didn't it come up before in your WW lynch feels wrong posts? Will place the vote here tomorrow morning, all things remaining equal. If anyone wants links to the posts behind those points, please ask. (Was going for readability.) These are great defense posts supporting a lot of Soultin said. As for myself, in a later post I wrote that: -Celestial was inconsistent with what he's saying. ExO did a great job of pointing that out. -What substance was there til Tube insisted on something? And then look it who came up first. Shining, then Rsoultin (who flipped town). And a more recent one I've been considering: -What's the best way to save your rear in this game when everyone's voting you? Claim a power role! TLDR version: -If I'm cop and we flipped the vet, why would we have a doc? -My checks are supported by other's posting. -It was clear that town (Tube, Rsoultin, so on) weren't going to mislynch Celestial today by their posting last night. Why did the mafia leave him alive? (thoughts on Shining to come!) Silver, can you explain your reasoning for checking Tubesock and Exo? Which day did you check each? Tube has been really towny since the start IMO - Why not JJB? | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 08:43 Tubesock wrote: Scott, why'd you pick this post as a town example of me? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=33#659 From my experience, can't sleep posts have a lot of straight thoughts to them. You explain a clear town list within this post, reasoning behind what Trfel's thoughts were, and why mafia nk'ed him. You show solid examples of why I townread you in this post. You have others as well, but this one stuck out at me the most. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
Could you also tell me what you think of HTS's case? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=56#1104 I see you went over mine, and I appreciate it, but skipped over hers. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 15:23 jarjarbinks wrote: Man Shining, I'm completely convinced you are town! Like seriously, your posts since day 1 have been very good. + Show Spoiler + These are my lists... I made one for if silver is telling the truth and one if she isn't. I didn't include either because if silver is telling the truth, she should be on the list. If she IS lying, then she definitely is mafia. I really think she is telling the truth though. On the crap model (I gave myself a 3% buffer this time), I think the best way is to compare the numbers and see the drop-offs. This is % chance they are evil. IF lying (there would be only 2 mafia in this list, as silver would be a 3rd): 1. Exo (54%) 2. Shining (36%) 3. Tube (33%) 4. HTS(32%) 5. Gum/Scott, Gum/Celestial (30%) 6. JarJarBinks (29% you can add or subtract 3% here. I left it at 0) IF Silver=cop (3 mafia in this one): 1. Shining (67%) 2. HTS (64%) 3.(tie) Celestial, Gum/Scott (61%) 3. JarJarBinks (add or subtract 3% based on how you feel) 4. Exo (35%) 5. Tube (10%) O.K. so trying to explain my thoughts derived from this. I apologize to you if this is confusing and/or it seems like I'm hiding behind numbers. Think of it like I'm literally running to them because you guys are all confusing...lol People to look at: EXO! Silver copped him day 1. 1/11 chance she cops him and he's Godfather. Based on his actions, he's above a 1/3 chance! That's craaaaaazy. Look at the difference between him and Tube there. There's people scumreading Exo on here as well. LS (partially why his rank is so high in the first place) and Rsoultin both read him before they died. Shining I really think Shining is good guys. My model definitely doesn't. I did subtract 3% on both lists. I think I made an error on my last post of putting him at 90%. I think I added Exo's points to Shining's 65% baseline (Exo was at 9% without his points added). If someone will kill roleblock in lynch and silver gets a shot at looking at someone, this is who I would suggest. WOULD CLEAR A LOT OF THINGS UP. That on top of seeing the lynch flip could secure our victory. + Show Spoiler + HTS: I'm going to be honest, I added 3% on HTS. Is HTS being helpful? Yes. DO I think she is capable of being helpful but also steering us in the wrong direction without us knowing it. YES! 100 times yes! HTS you are very good at this game. I will probably always be suspicious of you when in doubt. Same goes with my sister... lolz Gum/Scott: I didn't add much of anything on Gum/Scott. Honestly this is my read. Gum comes in playing 1 game before? Sees he's town. Doesn't care tooo much. He sees how everyones bashing people who can't scumread well (LS,waffle,me) and says PEACE. If he WAS mafia, the lack of suspicion despite him being inactive would prob. be enough to keep him in the game. Scott comes in and sees what he is. He sees the dire situation we are in and digs deep. He reads 58 pages of debating and makes some very good cases, trying to make an impact. All that being said, since gum never voted for anyone that died or get voted for by anyone that died, he is the townist one of us all in my model. Huh. Interesting. All that hating on inactives and got 0 votes. Instead we kill our vet and another towny both who were more active despite all the inactive hating. ME! I hope you saw me on the lists. Move me around 3% as much as you will. If you don't like %, then pretend they are points. This is a game of golf, towniest people have the low scores. I HAVE been using numbers. Without a detailed description of my "crap" I could see why you would be suspicious. I AM TOWN (I should probably say that more...). If you lynch me, I hope you remember how I act for if we play again. I probably won't act much different, besides the scumread thing as a punishment (that got a lot of hate lolz). Anyways, before I call it a night I wanted to talk about silver's claim. I believe her. She wasn't in trouble really, and it was a good time to claim. If there was no cop, mafia wouldn't randomly claim in my opinion. It doesn't exactly help them to have their (probably) least suspicious person claim cop with over a day to go. It could be a ploy, but it seems like you would be taking a lot of risk for not much of a reward. Plus if this is a newb game, I could see the moderator at least having veteran and cop (and medic too if that's real). More roles help us learn right? Learning might be as important as balance in this game right? O.K. work is tomorrow for me. Gotta pay the bills lol It is raining outside, who knows I might get a delay/snowday! If not, I will try to check at b-fast and lunch as well as get home before EOD. IF all fails, I'll try to step out of work to read and vote in real fast if something crazy happens. If I find you all lynch trained me, then pretend I made this giant rant about how none of you can make any reads before you see I flip town. I would also say "better dead here then dead at the core." It would have no quotes on people or scumreads either....lolz My vote is for Shining (but I think he's town!) for now. I really am unsure of this vote, please try to convince me that this isn't a good vote. I will change it if I think it is a good idea. Top switch targets for me would be Exo and HTS. I hope this clears some things up when you are thinking about my thoughts. Mesa sorry for the brain power you probably lost trying to get through it all lol Now this worries me a lot. You say you think the Shining is town but still vote for him? Your model overrides...? If I listened to my instincts as often as I do now fifteen years ago I'd be a millionaire. How old are you if you don't mind me asking? The Shining has stepped up his last couple posts, that is for sure. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 16:55 Tubesock wrote: + Show Spoiler + Jarjarbinks- I think you’re quite funny and will gladly play with you again. It's been a fun game. But I still want to beat you, so don't take my Crap Model jabs too seriously.  On January 12 2015 09:58 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + Is this the question I was avoiding? SO. I think at the time the chances of hitting mafia were 30% if no one ever talked or derived anything from votes/nightkills. If I just randomly pulled a name out of a hat (of the 10 people alive I was talking about), then 3 times out of 10 we would hit a scum. The additional %'s points I added were due to votes. The first day I decided that since both people that died voted and then changed to bandwagon, I figured it would work to pretend that was two different votes. So I believe LS was in the 48ish range? hard to remember honestly. I could go look back, but I will keep going for time's sake. so 48% was the 30% plus the additional 16%. I added 2% based on my thoughts. So lets looks at LS vs say HTS. I subtracted 2-3% on HTS so HTS was 27%. In my mind at the time, HTS had a 27% of being scum. (Looks much worse to me now obviously because there's only 4 real options left.) LS had a 48% chance. 48 vs. 27. So generally I would rather vote for LS over HTS on whatever day that was. Day 2? I think it was day 2. In my model I'm trying to be as accurate as possible. That means that my top lynch target probably won't have a 90% chance ever.+ Show Spoiler + 48% is very high for day 2 in my opinion. I definitely was on track with most of you thinking LS was bad. I hope this cleared something up. If not ask more questions and I'll answer. Two of his posts and 18 minutes later: On January 12 2015 10:16 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + So long story short: My thoughts and %'s on people. 65% is the BASELINE (75% chance to land mafia with 4 people minus 10% chance of silverarte hitting godfather on exo or tube) 1. Shining 89% + Show Spoiler + 2. Celestial 67% 3. HTS 67% 4. Scott 65% I don't have the others. I don't see a need to go down the list right now either. I will post some more later. I realize this time is the most important. I put my opinions of people in that percentage. That was funny I don't care who you are. Now, more seriously: On January 07 2015 02:02 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + Singular posts that are suspicious to me (Ignore my lack of knowledge on the English language if you can!)- Shining- Based off 1 past game, I could see Shining’s posts on here being similar to when she was mafia last game. Really weak case though, as I’ve only played with Shining once. I could see her defending her way out of my suspicion, since it is a weak case and Shining has prodded several different people as well as defended herself in the past. Tubesock- If I was a mafia, I would be playing like tubesock. First posts are shallowish, then stepped it up when told to. I haven’t thought his recent posts have been that great, they mostly follow up other’s ideas. It would be posts I could see myself posting if I wanted to post more. Plus he is off Celestial’s scum-list, which does worry me that he will be off other’s as well. A solid defense against my suspicion would be that tubesock is new and is now more confident in posting than he was at the beginning. He has also made analysis, just not at the level as others in my opinion. I don’t think Tubesock would be a smart day 1 lynch because I think we could figure him out later because of the amount of posts he has been posting. + Show Spoiler + Silverarte- If I had to choose someone who was playing similar to LS that wasn’t LS it would be Silverarte. Silverarte has no relative suspicion in comparison to LS which makes me suspicious! Gumdrop- Lack of posts. Most people have given him a pass which isn’t good in my opinion. He has gotten some votes though, despite me seeing myself as an easier target than gumdrop. A good defense against my suspicion would be his last post, which I thought was pretty good. LS- I would file LS as suspicious but someone I would want to not lynch day 1. He has the attention of people, and he posts a lot. I think it should be easier to determine him mafia later on IF he is mafia. I think it would be easier to get backing from others as well based on what I have read on here so far. Suspicions on collaboration (I think it would be stupid to collaborate as mafia day 1, but what do I know): Celestial-Exo: Small hints of collaboration. If I was mafia, I think the best person to estabilish my credibility as town would be Celestial. Have generally agreed with all of their posts. Both went after LS. Rsoultin-Silverarte-LS-me if you would like: Rsoultin generally makes good logical arguments from what I have seen from her and from personal experience. It is very easy to bandwagon her points. Silverarte, LS, and I have all done that already. Silverarte has been on her side since the beginning. You can attribute that to them being friends. LS did bandwagon on Rsoultins ideas, but you could attribute that to LS’s defense. Still worth noting for now. People I’m generally scared of: Celestial- Established great credibility day 1. Your writing style is very similar to a very established economist professor’s. If I was good at this game and was mafia, establishing credibility would be a top priority. Rsoultin- Very good at prodding and generating very logical arguments against people. Which means, if mafia, would be very good at it. Can prod and generate arguments about fallacies in people’s posts remarkably well. If she is mafia, I will have a difficult time reading it and a difficult time trying to convince others of it. People I think are least scummy: HTS-Good analysis and limited posts make it hard for me to be suspicious. Exo- great prodder early day and seems to be flinging scum everywhere. I would try to do this as scum (I think I’d have a better shot at this over establishing credibility lol). I also like that he tried to generate others to talk more (I’m such a hypocrite). Plus, people have been suspicious of him. That makes me a little more at ease about not being suspicious of him just in case he truly is mafia. He’s fully capable of analyzing without his formula. He really avoided offering any reads with something we could read or use. If I were to meta it, I would give a town point though. If I were used to playing games that complete in 17 pages, I'd definitely use formulas or something over talking and behavior analysis. BUT he didn't/doesn't care enough to see how this approach doesn't work in this type of game, with these players, mechanics etc. On January 07 2015 02:14 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + List of Scum: #1: Shining #2: Tube #3: Silver #4: Waffle #5: LS Reread the bold in the earlier spoiler quote. He scums Shining for what reasons? Then cites what I think are much stronger reasons on me, yet I’m less scummy than Shining? What the what? He also never comes at me. I even ask him to, a couple of times. He continually avoided me. Not till now when if he doesn't he knows he dies. Is this the part (below) where Jarjarbinks "demonstrates" towny behavior due to fearless posting? On January 12 2015 12:27 jarjarbinks wrote: + Show Spoiler + You are my favorite player in this game silver! I hope we play more games together if you like this stuff. I think I will keep playing if my sis plays and people will allow me to play with them =D Hmm your question about Shining is hard for me to answer. I am overwhelmed by your contradiction with that ginormous -2% correction. Whoa... Whoa. *Later revises to 3% + Show Spoiler + You gain a lot by lying. For example, as soon as you said that I automatically assumed both you are town as well as tube and exo. I can see why you picked those two to check as well, unlike celestial. But IF you are a liar, then you exonerate yourself completely as well as at least one of your counterparts. Hard for us to guess right 3 times when in the back of our minds we have already decided that 2 mafia are town. Real cop could counterclaim, but there might not even be a cop in this case. ...blah blah... To be EVEN MORE CONTRADICTORY, ...blah...blah..+ Show Spoiler + I will have my updated reads soon, but my past ones are definitely not final. I did not account for claims in my case studies because I didn't want to actually read the 100 pages of crap in each mafia game on here. For this reason, I don't see that it is right to apply those cases to a claim. I didn't do it with celestial on day 2, I don't feel I should do it here. Also, I feel like I am being too confident in what I have found via case study. I don't have enough of them to really base everything 80%-90% of my vote on it. I'm debating whether to give myself more sway based on my thoughts and what you guys have said. Silver, Exo, Tube, Celestial. Whats your scum list look like these days? Obviously not reading the thread enough to have any idea what I want to see before I town someone: On January 12 2015 10:01 jarjarbinks wrote: Motivation to....post long posts? Answer your questions? I'm generally lost on this. His last few posts were in a relative flurry for his activity. At least I think so. He sees town is in a desparate moment and on the cusp of losing the game. He sees this, and does want to win the game. If he were town, he'd see what we need and change his approach to try to help us win. He'd read and pay attention to the what people want. Check The Shinings posts lately. The Shining is laying it all out there. He's trying to help. Jarjar is "trying" too. "I'm generally lost on this." is basically, "I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA! I AM MAFIA!" You make some very good points here Tube, espically adding on to how I dislike his "I think Shining's town and still voting for him". That still sits bad in my stomach and makes me wonder if Shining is actually town and I'm on the mislynch target. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 13 2015 00:44 Tubesock wrote: Have Shining and Silverarte stepped up to the plate? I believe in Silverarte's Cop claim, it fits the time, makes sense. so yes, Silverarte has. I'm not a fan of her check on you though, but I'm not going to bash on it. The Shining has stepped up as well, answered my case, and made me feel better about him. Celestial is the Un-CC'ed doc and wasn't around much yesterday (It was his birthday). I am curious where his vote is when he returns. JarJar was my fourth lean, but has added some scumminess to himself for the reasons I said above. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 12 2015 17:21 ExO_ wrote: So I've been gone for a while. I stepped away from mafia for a while because it was kinda stressing me out. And to be entirely honest I was feeling lazy and felt like playing dota and civ. Unfortunately when you do this you come back to a few new pages of content and several huge posts. I've skimmed everything. I'm sure I don't have it all down. But Silverate has claimed cop, without a counter claim. This means he will die tonight. I really think Celestial fake claimed doctor. But I think after another day it'll become more obvious if he did or not. Right now it looks like to me the leading lynch candidates are shining and jarjar. Could somebody give me a brief explanation of the reasoning on both? Also if there are any questions about my actions I'll gladly answer them. I think if you look at my play It's pretty clear I am town, especially since I've been cleared by silv. Are you the godfather Exo? Is there a reason why you cannot read the last five pages and understand the reasoning of the Shining and Jarjar? Are you just trying to find a good sheep? How possible could that tinfoil hat theory be? Do you know which one I am referring to? Can you give us an updated reads list? | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On January 13 2015 05:38 ExO_ wrote: Expanding on that, that paints a clear picture for mafia to be: Scott, JarJarBinks, and Celestial. I agree with this as well. ![[image loading]](http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/04/06/article-0-127D0194000005DC-909_964x637.jpg) | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
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