EPTAm I missing what you're trying to say?
Newbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 51
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Am I missing what you're trying to say? | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:26 rsoultin wrote: And? Not trying to be rude, but if an NK doesn't go through, a scum false claim will just claim being roleblocked, too. Alright, I was overthinking this. Goodness this is difficult. Now looking back, the point on Celestial being an easy target is a lot more clear. That said, back to focusing on day actions. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:17 rsoultin wrote: JarJar, please answer my question on ExO. Also, why are you exclusively focusing on who the dead townies voted for? Trfel I can understand. But do you think the lynch trains were started by mafia specifically because of who the dead towns were voting? I'm trying to follow your logic. I did this because it was the key to getting that scum guy I found our first game that no one thought was scum. I thought it could translate to this game and others. I looked through some other cases and found that it could be rather significant. I just checked on how significant votes are that helped lynch a towny. So far (very limited data points) they are much less significant. If I entered it in my equations, Rsoultin silver shining LS and tube would all have been a 1-2% increase. I don't think this would have changed the outcome of my equation because LS was winning by such a large margin. if I have time today, I'm going to add more cases. More datapoints is better and I have so few right now. I missed the question on Exo, sorry. I'll go look for it. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
This is going to sound odd from me given I was scumreading Shining Day 1 and am still uncertain of him...and since I've been questioning JarJar on wtf he's doing...but the part in Shining's case about ExO jumping around a lot? He mentioned every single person except Trfel in mostly individual posts Day 1 (which makes his dinky filter look longer, addresses everyone like a list post without actually being a list post), AFK voted LS for almost 24 hours, then came back, and still never mentioned anything alignment-wise on Trfel, only addressing him to oddly enough argue the WW case when he was pushing the LS case. Then rage!fitted at WW for playing bad and disappeared all night, to start back in on LS again beginning Day 2. Even though LS' case wasn't strong, his read may not be wrong, on ExO or -Celestial-. It's hard to pin down, but I'm getting a funny feeling that ExO was probing the waters to see which lynches might gain momentum rather than actually scumhunting. That's reinforced by talking about WWs reads and arguing with Trfel while staying on LS... Also, there is no way if he read the game that he doesn't realize I was the one who first started pushing at -Celestial-...and many people not only voted for him but also questioned him. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 10 2015 14:15 rsoultin wrote: Also, JarJar...when you said that you were trying to "scumread" the 5 on the WW lynch...with scumread in quotes just like that... Does that mean you were deliberately making cases against 5 players just to make scum cases? I really didn't notice this before, but it legitimately looks like you were contriving the reads on purpose for the sake of making them rather than because you actually believed them... Not only that but you outright lied to me. You lied about having those cases made already, which makes it look like you wanted a reason just to throw one my direction. You lied about using your computer vs. your phone. You probably lied about your work hours...2200? No Lt in an office full of civilians crunching numbers works till 2200. Lie after lie. I don't see reads on Celestial or ExO anywhere really from you. That nullish post. Then saying Celestial is good at making cases (BS, btw, he stole most of the points on Shining from others and emulated your word diarrhea to say the same things on me he'd been saying while making it look like his case had more substance by sheer volume). Finally in your numbers which you didn't explain for people despite their asking you, you buried them in your town list. So LS' death suddenly makes ExO a good lynch? Auto lynch the player that the scummy mislynched towns were scumreading? Please tell me you at least attempted to evaluate his play first, and vet LS' case? I don't like this post. It offends me. I didn't lie about any of that. Closest thing to a lie was saying I hadn't downloaded Microsoft. Which I didn't. If I use my broken compy, every 2-3 pages clicked on here becomes unresponsive. I've developed a way to limit the times it is unresponsive so I've been using the broken compy now. Logic told me that if I add suspicion to people who voted to kill town, that might help get other people to be more suspicious get a better read on the scum. I did not have them "ready" besides the one on you. Your story was the first thing that popped in my mind when I started. I did not write all the cases beforehand. I don't think I said that? I also didn't think they were all scum, and already determined to do what I'm doing now with my case studies to really have my own opinion on scum. My work has gotten more complicated. I'm pretty much doing two jobs now. 10 pm? I never was that late. Latest I've gotten home was like between 7-8 if I can recall it right. Yesterday I got home around 630. For me, the EOD is 7. If you would like to call and talk about it, I would be happy to. I'd rather not start complaining on here about my job though. Ya I have made no reads on celestial and Exo. I complemented Celestials post because his scumread looked better than mine. Exo is on my list as bad right now if that means anything. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Okay, it seemed like lying from my perspective. Maybe I just read your posts wrong. Like this one: On January 07 2015 22:05 jarjarbinks wrote: No more snow days for me. Ill be back from work 2200 hopefully will have time to post before possible death. Glhf till then. Is this a typo or something? I'm not pulling the stuff out of my ass, I promise. Apart from that I get what you're doing...problem is...I just don't see how it's going to be enough to help town lynch scum tomorrow. The votes of the dead can at least be expected to be based on true opinions, but it doesn't mean those opinions were necessarily right, and with the LS lynch there's practically nothing to gain from the voting at all >< which irritates the shit out of me, frankly. I wanted more information after Day 2. Instead all we get is LS is town and Celestial may or may not be the doctor. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Can you help me with what people are saying, or are you still disregarding that in your analysis? | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:50 rsoultin wrote: Even though LS' case wasn't strong, his read may not be wrong, on ExO or -Celestial-. It's hard to pin down, but I'm getting a funny feeling that ExO was probing the waters to see which lynches might gain momentum rather than actually scumhunting. That's reinforced by talking about WWs reads and arguing with Trfel while staying on LS... Alright, here's a way I can test what you said in the bolded. Double checked the vote count using timestamps when he talked about what you said... On January 07 2015 06:44 ExO_ wrote: Re-reading the case on WarWaffle, I think there is a lot of scum indications there, but for me it's based on his bizzare reads. He defends somebody like gumdrops in a way that makes no sense. Gumdrops is clearly inactive and not contributing a lot to the thread. He defends shining and jarjar. JarJar's post aren't anything like he makes them out to be, and shining is not the paragon of asking the correct questions. His post is so wrong that I would honestly believe he was jester. It's definitely scummy. It paints the 3 mafia as himself/JarJar/shining. But it does this so blatantly that it scares me. And then he hardly says anything about LS. I don't know. It does make me question whether or not the best lynch is LS. On January 07 2015 06:59 ExO_ wrote: I'm not sure I agree that it's a policy lynch. Go read his big read post. None of it makes any sense whatsoever. Its blatantly wrong about a lot of players thus far. Read it and then come back and say it's still just a policy lynch. On January 07 2015 07:09 ExO_ wrote: I'm very tempted to switch to waffle. But I still feel like my argument for Lightning Strike stands. I feel like I'll be okay with the WW lynch but I don't think I can switch my vote just yet. On January 07 2015 07:28 ExO_ wrote: trfel I don't appreciate you ignoring my question Now the timestamps: On January 07 2015 06:51 Tubesock wrote: Sorry, ##Unvote ##Vote: TheWarWaffle On January 07 2015 07:07 Trfel wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: The Shining On January 07 2015 08:40 The Shining wrote: ##Vote: ExO_ On January 07 2015 08:48 jarjarbinks wrote: ##Vote: The Shining On January 07 2015 08:58 The Shining wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: TheWarWaffle Tubesock was the 4th vote. Shining was vote #5. If you look at the timestamps closely (I'm sorry if it's a mess, otherwise go to the voting thread and check bot page 1 and top page 2) the majority of his exchange came between the 4th and the 5th vote. I went back to his filter and there lacks a quote where he says definitively that he will stay on LS. I don't want to take anything out of context but since you brought it up Rasputin, I figured this could be a way of testing what you are saying. If you don't think it's reliable, fine but this is probably the best method I can think of at the moment. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Hi scott! So, um...you're kinda working with null. Let us know when you catch up? New eyes may help >< | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 07 2015 05:07 ExO_ wrote: Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage. And even if there is, his play here in this game seems scummish to me. It doesn't matter if in a previous game similar play from him was town. It might if I was on the fence with him, but I'm not. Which is why I think he IS the day 1 mafia lynch. I think he's trying to be active enough so that we have to say "He's a bad day 1 lynch." Compared to the other candidates (Shining/JarJar/WW) I think he's the best bet. I believe it strongly enough that I'm not willing to concede the vote for now, subsequently voting for one of the others. That was about two hours before EoD. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Though ExO's post progression does show some weakening on the LS lynch, I don't know. Seems kind of weird to be pushing WW with someone voting his top scumread already, if he's not willing to switch off onto WW himself in the end. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
I'm not sure what exactly rsoultin is trying to say here. That somehow I wasn't scum hunting? I feel like I'm one of the few in the thread that's at least tried. For all the talk, I pushed Celestial day 2, because I thought his play was scummy. Hell he might be scum now. I'm not 100% sold on his doc claim. But what did everybody else besides tubesock do? Just stuck on LS. I scumread LS on day 1. I thought WW was kinda scummy too. And based on his play I feel like the lynch on WW was justified. For a blue town role, WW played like garbage. I think the same of LS, for a town role he played very poorly. And I can tell you since I scum read LS on day 1, it's very easy for me to stay on him day 2. I have an ego, I want to be right and be able to say "check out how good I am, I picked him out on day1!". But it didn't go down like that. That being said, you've gotta be kidding me. I don't switch off of the votes day 1 because it wasn't necessary. I think I would've preferred LS lynch day 1, but the WW lynch made sense to me. And as I've said previously, I would've switched to WW if vote shenanigans went down at the last second. My read on LS was wrong. But at least I'm trying to scum read people. And I'm trying hard not to tunnel vision on the first scum read I make. If you have questions for me ask. I'll do my best to explain anything I've said. I can tell you for sure though I am not scum, and I think my play this game shows that. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 11 2015 05:54 ExO_ wrote: Computer is finally working again. I've been working on it since 9am. I'm not sure what exactly rsoultin is trying to say here. That somehow I wasn't scum hunting? I feel like I'm one of the few in the thread that's at least tried. For all the talk, I pushed Celestial day 2, because I thought his play was scummy. Hell he might be scum now. I'm not 100% sold on his doc claim. But what did everybody else besides tubesock do? Just stuck on LS. I scumread LS on day 1. I thought WW was kinda scummy too. And based on his play I feel like the lynch on WW was justified. For a blue town role, WW played like garbage. I think the same of LS, for a town role he played very poorly. And I can tell you since I scum read LS on day 1, it's very easy for me to stay on him day 2. I have an ego, I want to be right and be able to say "check out how good I am, I picked him out on day1!". But it didn't go down like that. That being said, you've gotta be kidding me. I don't switch off of the votes day 1 because it wasn't necessary. I think I would've preferred LS lynch day 1, but the WW lynch made sense to me. And as I've said previously, I would've switched to WW if vote shenanigans went down at the last second. My read on LS was wrong. But at least I'm trying to scum read people. And I'm trying hard not to tunnel vision on the first scum read I make. If you have questions for me ask. I'll do my best to explain anything I've said. I can tell you for sure though I am not scum, and I think my play this game shows that. To be honest with you, ExO...I don't get your LS/WW progression because of your argument with Trfel It seems like you're pushing him toward WW in that post, while staying on LS, after you already said you wouldn't move your vote from LS. Afterwards you claimed that you'd move after you were asked about the fit you threw after flip, but nothing about it beforehand. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:23 rsoultin wrote: Where were you going with this? You apparently had an idea that you failed to address after flip even though LS did in fact flip town. But all you wanted to talk about was game mechanics? That. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
I see that I can not get Jarjar to interact with me. This isn't really alignment indicative. It's pretty obvious, if he does, there are high odds he gets pressured enough to die. I think Jarjar is scum. I even made an algorithm. I dug out my commodore 64 and inputted a complex algorithm for measuring probabilities. It's complex but foolproof. I input scenario X and it will compare the probability of said scenario with the probability of me shitting out monkeys that fly, piss rainbows and shit a mixture of gold, shit, and bunnies for my morning constitution. My algorithm will also give a % of X with % breakdowns of the flying monkey shit's composition. I asked it what the probability of Jarjar being town. It reported a 46% less chance of flying, rainbow pissing, goldshitbunny pooping monkeys that come out of my bowels during my next morning constitution. The gold shit bunny ratio was 39%, 38%, 33%. That may have been mean. Sorry. I respect you enough to think it's funny, and not be so fragile that some anonymous asshole on the internet can randomly hurt you in a silly ( but AWESOME!!!) forum game. I also am investigating Silverarte. Although, I maybe nitpicking. I see no town motivation in her play. No initiative, no hunting. If someone didn't tell her what to post, she wouldn't know. Rsoultin and Half the Sky are confirmed town until I know what JJB and Silver flip. JJB and Silver are by far the highest percentage of mafia in this game. I checked my algorithm. It's science, you can't argue with science. ExO_ is town for those same reasons plus this: On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote: It did to a degree.Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is? I smiled and clapped my hands like a 12 year old school girl going to see New Kids on the Block when I saw him post this. I don't know what he was really doing, maybe I misinterpreted it. I took it as vetting my motivations for joining him while he pressured -Celestial-. Mafia wouldn't bother with it, they would buddy up to me as they already know my alignment. He's being suspicious of me, why would mafia be suspicious? Why would mafia check to see if the person helping them kill someone was reading a filter critically? Sure, WIFOM this as some high level shit. For me, it's enough to go for more solid behavior or lack thereof. Hi Jarjar and Silver!! I do think it would be awesome to keep -Celestial- alive so I can mock him for every post he makes. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
For instance, he was super concerned about being NKd, kept going on about it. The concern about bluehunting in the beginning I think was over the top, unless he was concerned because he had a blue role and so was paranoid about it. And then there's how his discussion of the NKs was so doctor focused. He kept going back to players who were likely to be doc saves being the explanation for why Trfel (not a likely doc save) was killed. To me that seems that if he was scum at the very least his mind was on what the doctor was doing, or he was deliberately trying to breadcrumb. I think there's way too much doubt without a CC and the breadcrumbing to justify a Celestial lynch unless you're down to the last scum and are sold on everyone else being town. | ||
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