EPT##Vote: LightningStrike
Newbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 49
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
##Vote: LightningStrike | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Think I'll take a fresh look at things in the morning. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I could totally see LS reads being good. I'm thinking my vote would be for Exo right now. If I was vigi the vigi shot could definitely save the game or finish us off. Time to nut up or shut up. Or maybe wait a night. THEN its time to nut up or shut up. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
Also, the way Celestial claimed doc is very scum-favored. It diverts a lynch without having to prove anything. There was no hinting or bread crumbing, or even pushing another lynch(why would you? You knew the other wagon was town). This is an open game and Doc is the easiest thing to claim to save yourself from a lynch. Add this to the fact that our vet already flipped and it leads me to believe that there IS no doc. Celestial HAS to be the lynch tomorrow. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
The argument does have some merit, but the problem is I'm already disinclined to believe Celestial anyway. I don't know that speculation on the balance of the game should be the deciding factor when a mislynch means a town loss. There are likely three scum. Celestial, if scum, can be disregarded while the others are hunted down. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 07 2015 02:02 jarjarbinks wrote: Singular posts that are suspicious to me (Ignore my lack of knowledge on the English language if you can!)- [...] Celestial-Exo: Small hints of collaboration. If I was mafia, I think the best person to estabilish my credibility as town would be Celestial. Have generally agreed with all of their posts. Both went after LS. [...] People I’m generally scared of: Celestial- Established great credibility day 1. Your writing style is very similar to a very established economist professor’s. If I was good at this game and was mafia, establishing credibility would be a top priority. [...] People I think are least scummy: [...] Exo- great prodder early day and seems to be flinging scum everywhere. I would try to do this as scum (I think I’d have a better shot at this over establishing credibility lol). I also like that he tried to generate others to talk more (I’m such a hypocrite). Plus, people have been suspicious of him. That makes me a little more at ease about not being suspicious of him just in case he truly is mafia. What is this? In your collaboration section it looks like you're suggesting Celestial is town. Then in the people you're scare of, mafia. While in collaboration ExO is suggested to be mafia. Then listed under people least scummy/i.e. most towny. What were you trying to say? To me it looks like a very convoluted way to null read them both. Or at least that you didn't really know your own mind. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Hitting a town would put town in no worse a position and hitting scum would buy town an extra mislynch. Waiting increases the chances of vig dying before the shot can be used -shrugs- | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Does that mean you were deliberately making cases against 5 players just to make scum cases? I really didn't notice this before, but it legitimately looks like you were contriving the reads on purpose for the sake of making them rather than because you actually believed them... Not only that but you outright lied to me. You lied about having those cases made already, which makes it look like you wanted a reason just to throw one my direction. You lied about using your computer vs. your phone. You probably lied about your work hours...2200? No Lt in an office full of civilians crunching numbers works till 2200. Lie after lie. I don't see reads on Celestial or ExO anywhere really from you. That nullish post. Then saying Celestial is good at making cases (BS, btw, he stole most of the points on Shining from others and emulated your word diarrhea to say the same things on me he'd been saying while making it look like his case had more substance by sheer volume). Finally in your numbers which you didn't explain for people despite their asking you, you buried them in your town list. So LS' death suddenly makes ExO a good lynch? Auto lynch the player that the scummy mislynched towns were scumreading? Please tell me you at least attempted to evaluate his play first, and vet LS' case? | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
Jarjarbinks, same question. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
How important is it for mafia to kill the doc if they have a roleblocker? I don't know the validity of the no vet & doc idea, but I don't really care either. It's safer to play it in the most conservative way I think. What is our risk if we don't lynch Celestial Day 3? We won't listen to a word he says. He wastes a roleblock night action every night or mafia risks a save. If mafia knows/thinks we lynch Celestial Day 3, why on earth would they kill him tonight? They can kill a strong town, and if he is in fact a doc we lynch him for mafia the next day. It's lose/lose for town. If he is mafia and we don't lynch him immediately, it will allow mafia to freely try to roleblock our blues that are still alive. I think that's worth the risk. Course the way my luck is going, my next wagon will be on another blue. ExO, Rsoultin, Half The Sky. Please, please tell me if I have flawed thinking here. If this is a sound plan, are you guys willing to pledge to wait a day to lynch Celestial? I will sheep your decision. Celestial, if this plan is vetted by the above, you may only post once per phase to avoid modkill and it shall say "I'm sorry." If there is a night where there is a save, we will reevaluate your posting privileges. If you don't agree to this, you will learn what real condescension is. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
That said, I'm absolutely horrified at this lynch. Rasputin, to answer your question regarding LS, you are correct in a sense that no he doesn't have developed reads but that's when you ask questions and/or make statements on reads. And that's where I felt I was running into problems, but I gave him the BOTD through D1 until the blue issue and the mention that he was tunnelled. Today I asked him about the blue issue and this is what he said: On January 10 2015 00:41 LightningStrike wrote: 2. I didn't believe the soft blue claim because if I was scum I would Soft Claim blue myself although I didn't in Student Mafia IV but that was because both of the Blue roles were killed in the first 36 hours of the game so I couldn't soft claim blue in that game. Generally speaking scum would soft claim blue more likely than a town that what the impression I gotten from looking at other games. I saw that and I'd be thinking just the opposite especially with more experience. Still, I read his case and asked questions, but when I saw he was talking about ExO switching to WW with no explanation, I checked the votes and ExO's filter and that clearly wasn't true. LS even said in his second comment that it was in Exo's filter, and doing that and coming up with a different result, it was another red flag to me. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 09:18 ExO_ wrote: There is something. I was debating whether or not to say this in public, but Celestial should die tonight right? Except mafia may leave him alive then push a lynch on him the next day for not dying. I disagree with this (bolded words) because scum always want to maximise their shot for an NK. The medic by default cuts into that by 1/x, x being the current nr of players. In TL games, medics cannot save themselves. Therefore, a shot on claimed medic will be 100%. Blues are a larger threat to scum getting closer to late game. Up to lynch, there has been no counterclaim. Therefore, regardless of setup, if Celestial lives tonight, he goes tomorrow, end of, simple as. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:22 Half the Sky wrote: Back in thread after a great night. That said, I'm absolutely horrified at this lynch. Rasputin, to answer your question regarding LS, you are correct in a sense that no he doesn't have developed reads but that's when you ask questions and/or make statements on reads. And that's where I felt I was running into problems, but I gave him the BOTD through D1 until the blue issue and the mention that he was tunnelled. Today I asked him about the blue issue and this is what he said: I saw that and I'd be thinking just the opposite especially with more experience. Still, I read his case and asked questions, but when I saw he was talking about ExO switching to WW with no explanation, I checked the votes and ExO's filter and that clearly wasn't true. LS even said in his second comment that it was in Exo's filter, and doing that and coming up with a different result, it was another red flag to me. Horrified at what lynch? The LightningStrike one? Or you mean the ExO one? | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:27 Tubesock wrote: Horrified at what lynch? The LightningStrike one? Or you mean the ExO one? Disregard, unless you didn't mean ExO. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:17 Tubesock wrote: How important is it for mafia to kill the doc if they have a roleblocker? I don't know the validity of the no vet & doc idea, but I don't really care either. It's safer to play it in the most conservative way I think. What is our risk if we don't lynch Celestial Day 3? We won't listen to a word he says. He wastes a roleblock night action every night or mafia risks a save. If you're in MYLO/LYLO you should go for whoever you are most sure of to be scum, why take a shot at someone you aren't as sure of? That's the risk right there. The medic gains information every night through their saves, so faced with a decision, scum should be killing him particularly getting closer to lylo. I mentioned before that they have the most hard info through their actions. Regardless, Celestial had good reason to be scumread pre-claim. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:27 Tubesock wrote: Horrified at what lynch? The LightningStrike one? Or you mean the ExO one? Horrified that LS flipped town. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:41 Half the Sky wrote: If you're in MYLO/LYLO you should go for whoever you are most sure of to be scum, why take a shot at someone you aren't as sure of? That's the risk right there. The medic gains information every night through their saves, so faced with a decision, scum should be killing him particularly getting closer to lylo. I mentioned before that they have the most hard info through their actions. Regardless, Celestial had good reason to be scumread pre-claim. Ok cool. I'm not going to waste any more thought about this. | ||
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