EPTOn January 10 2015 16:45 Tubesock wrote:
Ok cool. I'm not going to waste any more thought about this.
Ok cool. I'm not going to waste any more thought about this.
I'm a liar, I'm still thinking about this.
Newbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 50
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
I'm a liar, I'm still thinking about this. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
I want to push mafia to night kill celetial tonight. Why the fuck would I want that? The world I see, the play I would make IF and only IF mafia has a roleblocker AND it's obvious town WILL LYNCH Celestial I would not waste my night kill on Celestial. Sicklucker is a smart crafty bastard. If he has those two conditions (which he easily could) why nk Celestial? The doc gets save blocked at 100% chance to succeed due to guaranteed roleblock. WIFOM us with a vegi who kills the roleblocker (low fucking odds). They gain another free kill, and town gains 0 information. Let's prevent that play. It's easy and risk free. He lives to daytime, you bet your ass he dies that day. Or do you? Do you? Do I? Just "claim" you won't lynch Celestial. I totally won't. Or will I? Tin foil hat people. Tin fucking foil hat. CHUFUCKINGPAZI!!!!! | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 05:20 ExO_ wrote: It gets a lot harder then. If he is mafia (as I suspect) then he'll have nothing to lose by claiming a blue role. It'll depend on if he claims blue, and what specific blue role he claims. I won't ignore it, but will make a decision when I see what he says. On January 07 2015 05:23 LightningStrike wrote: Because ExO and Tube pretty much asked me to claim. On January 07 2015 05:25 Tubesock wrote: It's moot now. He claimed VT so we lynch him now at worst we lynch a vt. I think he's 4th on my list though. I really really want WarWaffle to come back. On January 07 2015 05:27 Tubesock wrote: No. You were getting heat and then softclaimed. Noone asked you to claim. My questions were to avoid that stupid situation where you claimed cop and shenanies happened and you as cop was miss lynched day 1. When you said "I will claim if I have to" is a fucking claim. You did it then, no one asked you to. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 17:03 jarjarbinks wrote: 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far. 1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes). 2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play. 3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was. [...] 5. Silverarte 33% [...] JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating? Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information? You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
Hopefully in a few hours itll be fixed and I can look over things. But fixing my machine takes priority over everything | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 23:38 ExO_ wrote: Its gonna have to wait. my video card blew out last night. im up early this morning to buy a new one but until I get my machine fixed I wont really being paying attention here. Hopefully in a few hours itll be fixed and I can look over things. But fixing my machine takes priority over everything Fair play, that is a stinker. Thanks for the heads up. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote: You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? JJB in case you didn't understand my prior explanation, I'll try and talk in more maths related terms. One variable in coming up with your numbers is dead votes. Those five I mentioned voted the same D1 and as of the time you made that collective rating. So why are you assigning different numbers for what should be the same variable? Am I making sense either way? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 06 2015 23:34 LightningStrike wrote: Good morning guys I just woke up. After reading the game that JarJar linked me Shining is just as lurky this game as in that game but that game in general was inactive so hard to say if it's meta or not. [...] Also since ExO and -Celestial- still think I'm scum but I think their inexperience with playing with me seems to show here but I will claim if I have to. LS posted this after Celeste's list post that ended with a vote on him, and before any of the posts you quoted. Celeste also sheeped ExO's reasoning for his own vote. There was also this post from ExO: On January 07 2015 04:31 ExO_ wrote: Okay finished reading. some quick thoughts: [...] Moving on to LS however: I think my original reasoning on him still holds. He's still playing this "oh I can't accuse anybody game, I'm unsure about every scum read" game. He asks questions, but I don't think he's getting valuable information out of people. He's polite and friendly sure. The kinda guy you want to like. But mafia isn't about being liked. It's not about lynching the rude people. It's about finding and lynching the scum. I don't think LS cares about that, he cares about slipping by. I think he's going to try a fake blue-claim if he gets a lot of pressure on him. There's my initial thoughts. There's a lot of stuff I need to look at more in depth, but after my catch-up read through I still think LS is our best lynch. Just talking a lot is not a good reason to let somebody slip by, and I highly disagree with the meta-(this is how he played town in his other game)-reads. We need to focus on this game here. If people think there is a better case than LS, please present it to me again. Or if theres a reason I should not be voting him today that I've missed. Because so far I don't see it. [...] So to answer your question, HTS...I think that LS misinterpreted Tubesock's post asking if Shining would disregard a hardclaim from LS as a push for him to claim, when Tube was questioning the statement in the above post. That said, ExO already sowing doubt on a possible claim from LS does give me pause, and blatantly saying that he might still lynch a hardclaimed blue...well, you already know how I feel about a move like that on Day 1. It seems like ExO was determined to lynch LS regardless of any evidence otherwise. Tunneling is not necessarily a scum trait. While I wouldn't say Tubesock looked like he was bluehunting at all (actually he appears to be questioning ExO), a scum ExO definitely could have been with these posts. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
That said, I think that he does need to explain his equation. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:26 Half the Sky wrote: Since a few of you are talking mechanics, I'm going to weigh in simply - I disagree with this (bolded words) because scum always want to maximise their shot for an NK. The medic by default cuts into that by 1/x, x being the current nr of players. In TL games, medics cannot save themselves. Therefore, a shot on claimed medic will be 100%. Blues are a larger threat to scum getting closer to late game. Up to lynch, there has been no counterclaim. Therefore, regardless of setup, if Celestial lives tonight, he goes tomorrow, end of, simple as. This post of yours concerns me, HTS. Much as I would like to say Celestial is a scummy scumbucket and too smart to screw this game...-shrugs-. He may have just finished his doctoral dissertation, but he's not a veteran mafia player and his logic, if town, has been questionable most of the game. He could just be new and bad. I don't think so, but he could. And I don't like an auto lynch in MYLO/LYLO. Flat out. If mafia has an RBer (and no we can't know for sure, just as we can't know for sure that there are 3 mafia, but if there are, one of each role makes sense) then it makes more sense to RB celestial and push an easy mislynch Day 3. I don't think looking at Celestial at all for a Day 3 lynch is worthwhile. Much as I'm tempted to vote him out of spite, regardless of alignment -_- | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Probably should clarify that short of a cop check or no other viable lynch candidates, I don't see the point at looking to Celestial at all. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 10 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote: JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating? Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information? You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? I didn't explain my equations because they aren't very sound They are based on what the dead had done rather than who voted for the dead. I think both NK and lynched voted for LS at a point in time. One voted for tube at one point and one voted for shining at another. In my equations, Rsoultin and silver got the pass. Should they have? Prob not. Definitely not the soundest of equations, I should definitely fix them to include everything. I'm wondering if my equations might not apply to this game because #1 its newbie and #2 LS caused everyone to be suspicious of him despite being town. Like hard suspicious. I will still update them and apply them for this next round and hope for the best. But I will also do what I think is best. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 01:05 rsoultin wrote: And I don't like an auto lynch in MYLO/LYLO. Flat out. If mafia has an RBer (and no we can't know for sure, just as we can't know for sure that there are 3 mafia, but if there are, one of each role makes sense) then it makes more sense to RB celestial and push an easy mislynch Day 3. I don't think looking at Celestial at all for a Day 3 lynch is worthwhile. Okay, Rasputin, now I see where you're coming from. Trying to think the mechanics through, if scum have a RB, and if Celestial is RBed and protects the same person scum went for, he has an additional defence because now he knows for sure he's been roleblocked. (The person he requested to protect has died.) Maybe I'm overthinking things but I'm trying to place why scum would allow that potential out for an uncounterclaimed medic they might try to target the next day. The medic gains more information and can give more information to the rest of the town. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 02:57 jarjarbinks wrote: I didn't explain my equations because they aren't very sound [...] I will still update them and apply them for this next round and hope for the best. But I will also do what I think is best. Fair play, JarJar, got it. That is a lot more clear now. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
If mafia doesn't have an RBer, yes, I'd expect Celeste to die tonight. But otherwise he's a complete non-threat because he outed. That is why Celeste's move was so stupid. He neutralized himself and made it hard if he's really town to believe a thing he says. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Also, why are you exclusively focusing on who the dead townies voted for? Trfel I can understand. But do you think the lynch trains were started by mafia specifically because of who the dead towns were voting? I'm trying to follow your logic. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:15 rsoultin wrote: But unless celeste blocks a mafia nk (assuming he's a real doc) he knows nothing. And him being roleblocked, he knows nothing, cause who he tried to save has nothing to do with the roleblock. I'm not talking about blocking. I'm talking about the fact that if any medic requests a save on Joe Smith, and Joe Smith still dies, that he can deduce or infer that he has been roleblocked because his/her save obvious didn't go through. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 10 2015 08:46 ExO_ wrote: I am. and at least for me, I think it's a sign he's scum. If he flips scum it'll be easy to see that scum all bussed him because they were afraid. And since he had a bit of attention on day 1 as well, I think it'll be easy to work out who might be scum. Compare this to day 1, in which we lynched a town. The votes where everywhere. It'd be surprising to me if all the mafia ended up on the same town wagon. On the other hand, if he flips town then this gets really hard. it could be that LS has had too much momentum on him all of day 2, but when Tube and I were both pushing Celestial nobody else even tried to get another wagon going, or jumped on Celestial....which now that I think about it might be revealing. Still, we'll have a much better idea in 15 minutes. Where were you going with this? You apparently had an idea that you failed to address after flip even though LS did in fact flip town. But all you wanted to talk about was game mechanics? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:21 Half the Sky wrote: I'm not talking about blocking. I'm talking about the fact that if any medic requests a save on Joe Smith, and Joe Smith still dies, that he can deduce or infer that he has been roleblocked because his/her save obvious didn't go through. And? Not trying to be rude, but if an NK doesn't go through, a scum false claim will just claim being roleblocked, too. | ||
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