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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
On January 07 2015 23:03 rsoultin wrote: Glad to hear your mother's doing alright LS. If you couldn't vote for Shining who would you vote for and why? To be honest with you I have no idea now that I fucked up hard and not go for my closest scum read and I saw no cases on the other player except for ExO who I agreed that he shouldn't be lynched Day 1. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On January 07 2015 22:28 rsoultin wrote: You and I are playing the game differently. I will try to vote for the most scummy train. If I can't convince people to go for my top scumread, I go for one of my other scumreads people are voting for. With no scumreads up for vote, I go with a null read. If all up for vote are townreads I try to convince people to consolidate on an alternative lynch starting at my scumreads and settling on null if I have to, cause it's better than voting a townread. I do it this way because you can be 100% right but if you're the only one voting someone they will never be lynched. So yay you can say "I told you so" at the end, but your vote was meaningless and town still lost. Does this make sense? Fair enough. I get where you're going with it. Either way the whole vote was kinda flakey. It's frustrating that you see questions as blame and accuse me of not looking into people voting WW between the claim and EoD and accuse me of blaming others in practically the same breath. What do you think I was doing all night? Is it just that you don't think I should be questioning people who were not voting WW or what gives? I don't actually have an issue with the questioning in general, you're missing my real problem. My problem is the apparent inconsistencies between what you're saying and what you're asking. This was from the first post where you started questioning people: On January 07 2015 09:59 rsoultin wrote: Anyway...Silverarte and I were not in the thread at the time. Tubesock and LS were. Shining was voting for a counterwagon, not scummy in and of itself. Shining...can you please explain your reasoning for voting WW over LS with a soft blue claim? Celestial and Gumdrop both had useless votes, which bothers me more from Celestial than Gumdrop simply because he was actually here to do something about it. Can you explain your vote, Celestial? What I have an issue with is this: Here you highlight Tube and LS as having been about and, indeed, the two of them actually VOTED for WW. And you flat out acknowledge that Shining had a inherently good reason for voting the way he did (counterwagon to himself). However the people you specifically call out for explanations in that post are me and Shining. Which seems completely inconsistent with what you just said. Shining is actually perhaps the most excusable of everyone who voted WW, because of wanting to ensure that someone else was lynched rather than him. Mine was a wasted vote, yes, but it was a wasted vote that I'd already stated the reasons for hours earlier with the option to being convinced and nobody actually made an attempt to do that except you, but you came across as insincere as I discussed. To acknowledge that some people were directly culpable for what happened and then to explicitly call out the one most easily explicable and someone else who was only indirectly responsible to explain themselves for it is inconsistent in my view. Hell, its as inconsistent as you saying that Shining was the best lynch and then staying on WW. Care to explain why you specifically picked me and Shining to call out first over those who were less explicable or more directly culpable? I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt for now despite all of this because I have my own suspicions on Shining and if you're going that angle I'd quite like to see your full impressions of him over D2. Assuming I even survive the night. But if we do lynch Shining D2 his flip is going to be very, very interesting. | ||
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Silverarte
115 Posts
6 central time is 5pm for me, the exact time I'm getting off (if I am lucky). I have a 20 minute to hour long commute (traffic, weather, so on) and immediately come home to trying to eat dinner, settling my household down and helping with sick people (who so lovingly gave me their cold xD). I have to be at work at 8:30 am, but again with that commute. ( Generally leave at 7:30 my time for work) --- @Ls Glad you're back and she's ok! <3 LS, what makes you so suspicious of Shining? In your mind, who is the biggest candidate to lynch right now and why? I know Shining is on your radar, but what makes Shining more important than say...Gumdrop? | ||
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Silverarte
115 Posts
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
On January 07 2015 23:19 Silverarte wrote: I know JarJar's questions aren't directed at me (and I'm reading them as specifically at Rsoultin right now) but I felt I should answer them, particularly with the schedule in my world seeming to be a problem-ish. So I'm going to quickly answer at least number 1 before I run out the door. 6 central time is 5pm for me, the exact time I'm getting off (if I am lucky). I have a 20 minute to hour long commute (traffic, weather, so on) and immediately come home to trying to eat dinner, settling my household down and helping with sick people (who so lovingly gave me their cold xD). I have to be at work at 8:30 am, but again with that commute. ( Generally leave at 7:30 my time for work) --- @Ls Glad you're back and she's ok! <3 LS, what makes you so suspicious of Shining? In your mind, who is the biggest candidate to lynch right now and why? I know Shining is on your radar, but what makes Shining more important than say...Gumdrop? His posts in general seemed very questionable and his case on ExO wasn't good for a Day 1 lynch. Also the case on Shining by Rsoultin is pretty good now that I had reread the stuff from it. I willing to give Gumdrop a benefit of a doubt for now just because he's new but I found that him not voting is questionable or at least I didn't see him vote at all but not enough to make me want to lynch him over Shining. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
A veteran town team is unlikely to lynch a blue claim day 1. That this town did not react that way means that at least some new town players didnt recognize that the lynch should have been moved. So I threw out that bad call initially cause o cant scumread everyone for it. Tube as town or mafia will say that he believed WW was scim and didnt believe his claim. No reason to question him on that. I originally put LS in the same boat. Wasted votes can hide scum if both wagons are town, something more likely from those wasting votes who are aware of the lynch. Why? Because most town players will be trying to lynch scum. keeping a vote on an impossible lynch without puahing for vote switches suggests that you dont actually care who is lynched. that is why i questioned you. Shining, his last minute vote with last minute scumread, was unnecessary. The scumread especially. his vote isnt alignment indicative in and of itself on a counterwagon, but i can possibly get info to indicate his alignment from his explanation. i returned to ls cause i realized that he has 2 more games under his belt than tube and has proven to be wary of lynching blue roles in the past. that made his decison more questionable. questioning ppl is not my way of scumreading or casting blame, at least not by itself. if i was certain that an action made someone scum i wouldnt bother to ask, just say that it is scummy. it goes without saying that if there was race between a town and a mafia that at least some of the votes on the town wagon are probably scum. but until we know shining's alignment there isnt much to question that isnt clear in their filters. i dont know if this post was clear or not. regardless, my scum reads are shining right now (though he could convince me otherwise with good townplay and explanations) and im trying not to omgus jarjar but his post was so heavily biased that i question his motives. if shining flips mafia i think town should definitely take a closer look at tube and ls, but especially ls. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
sorry for all the typos and the length. its hard to be clear and still explain all the theory behind the vote analysis | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
I saw his claim and immediately focused on two things. He can't possibly be counter claimed and he's already setting up excuses not to post. I think I was tunnelling too hard and it's pretty likely that no matter what he posted I would have scummed him harder for it. Bad play I get it. I felt like he'd just survive the night for any amount of WIFOM reasons and I would most likely waste day 2 tunnelling him again. I decided his claim was bullshit. I think many others also had that feeling. What I should have looked at is those people were not on his wagon. Unfortunately, there were two people who did explicitly say it's a bad idea to lynch a blue claim. Jarjar and The Shining. Two people I previously cited as scum. I interpreted that as 2 mafia trying to save their buddy. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
First off, the vote analysis. Starting with the isolated votes: So Gumdrop and Celestial already voted outside the wagons, Celestial has already explained away (which I need to have a further look at), but it's Gumdrop's turn, I think Tube called him earlier saying in no world would ExO be done for. It doesn't appear Gumdrop was in thread, but if you were, whom would you have voted for and what are your thoughts now? On the main wagon, I highly doubt the entire scumteam (on page 11 I made assumptions there would be 3 scum) voted Waffle, because that is too obvious for D1. However, 2 of the votes on that wagon were sheep votes off someone with decent town cred, so it's likely at least 1 scum somewhere could have taken advantage. WW made his claim 95 minutes prior to EoD. Of the votes coming in after that according to the vote thread, only Shining voted Waffle. To me, Shining's vote on Waffle in of itself is not alignment indicative. I had interpreted that as him trying to prevent a quickhammer on himself, considering his question on the tie vote. I had other issues with Shining and he still hasn't answered some of the concerns previously addressed with him. Silverarte was out of thread because of her schedule. Voted WW earlier, and admits she was convinced by others. I looked closer at her read progression on WW and some of her other scumreads. She admits she sheeped the points made on WW (presumably by Rasputin) but looking at her filter I don't understand what in her mind made WW more scummy than say JJB, whom she was also scumreading and I still don't understand where she stood on Rasputin prior to voting. I'm assuming town at the time she voted because she obviously sheeped her, but I wonder if anything has since changed post-lynch. I'd really like her to clarify/update her reads. LS, well, deary me. I was 50/50 on this guy but now he looks worse. I looked at the exchange between him and Rasputin and aside from the whole blue role controversy I'm just not buying this: On January 07 2015 11:16 LightningStrike wrote: I thought that Shining didn't have a lot votes at the time and I tunneled to hard on TWW I'm sorry  As town, I don't know how not observing the votes near EoD would fly. He said he's tunnelled too hard on Waffle, so I decided to work backwards on read progression. Tunnelled? Really? Going through LS's filter, he goes on from a scum read post on Shining to a vote on WW on page 17, 17 minutes after Rasputin votes him. In his filter, there is zero progression to WW up to the time he votes him. After his vote I see one repetition in his filter of why he voted but I don't see any followup questions, or him making a bigger case. Then he says he's tunnelled on him. I don't even. It just seems to me too convenient of a vote. In contrast, Tubesock was actually tunnelled on WW and I could at least follow where he was coming from, why he asked the questions he did. In his filter there are 10+ posts with questions on WW and explanations on WW's read post. None of that from LS. Once again, negligible/poor read progression leading up to his vote on WW and not taking it off post-claim as Rasputin discussed makes LS look very poor. LS, can you explain what differentiated WW from Shining at the time you voted him? I will comment on some of the other votes as well, but I am going to grab some food. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
On January 08 2015 05:45 Half the Sky wrote: Back in thread after yet another long day at work. First off, the vote analysis. Starting with the isolated votes: So Gumdrop and Celestial already voted outside the wagons, Celestial has already explained away (which I need to have a further look at), but it's Gumdrop's turn, I think Tube called him earlier saying in no world would ExO be done for. It doesn't appear Gumdrop was in thread, but if you were, whom would you have voted for and what are your thoughts now? On the main wagon, I highly doubt the entire scumteam (on page 11 I made assumptions there would be 3 scum) voted Waffle, because that is too obvious for D1. However, 2 of the votes on that wagon were sheep votes off someone with decent town cred, so it's likely at least 1 scum somewhere could have taken advantage. WW made his claim 95 minutes prior to EoD. Of the votes coming in after that according to the vote thread, only Shining voted Waffle. To me, Shining's vote on Waffle in of itself is not alignment indicative. I had interpreted that as him trying to prevent a quickhammer on himself, considering his question on the tie vote. I had other issues with Shining and he still hasn't answered some of the concerns previously addressed with him. Silverarte was out of thread because of her schedule. Voted WW earlier, and admits she was convinced by others. I looked closer at her read progression on WW and some of her other scumreads. She admits she sheeped the points made on WW (presumably by Rasputin) but looking at her filter I don't understand what in her mind made WW more scummy than say JJB, whom she was also scumreading and I still don't understand where she stood on Rasputin prior to voting. I'm assuming town at the time she voted because she obviously sheeped her, but I wonder if anything has since changed post-lynch. I'd really like her to clarify/update her reads. LS, well, deary me. I was 50/50 on this guy but now he looks worse. I looked at the exchange between him and Rasputin and aside from the whole blue role controversy I'm just not buying this: As town, I don't know how not observing the votes near EoD would fly. He said he's tunnelled too hard on Waffle, so I decided to work backwards on read progression. Tunnelled? Really? Going through LS's filter, he goes on from a scum read post on Shining to a vote on WW on page 17, 17 minutes after Rasputin votes him. In his filter, there is zero progression to WW up to the time he votes him. After his vote I see one repetition in his filter of why he voted but I don't see any followup questions, or him making a bigger case. Then he says he's tunnelled on him. I don't even. It just seems to me too convenient of a vote. In contrast, Tubesock was actually tunnelled on WW and I could at least follow where he was coming from, why he asked the questions he did. In his filter there are 10+ posts with questions on WW and explanations on WW's read post. None of that from LS. Once again, negligible/poor read progression leading up to his vote on WW and not taking it off post-claim as Rasputin discussed makes LS look very poor. LS, can you explain what differentiated WW from Shining at the time you voted him? I will comment on some of the other votes as well, but I am going to grab some food. I just tunelled to hard while I was worried about my mom but at least she is feeling much better now. I just couldn't concentrate at all at the time but WW was way more inactive in the thread that all I remember why I went after WW and also I was liking rsoultins post on why to vote WW too. I so lost right now to be honest with you like maybe one of my town reads is scum this game and I just denying it. I hope Day 2 gives me a fresh start on who is scum and who isn't. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 07 2015 12:16 rsoultin wrote: Okay, going to bed for realz. Will read what anyone cares to post here in the morning. Still want to know your train of thought, Shining. Please explain your votes. Gumdrop, too. Please. (I did read your filter, but I want to hear why you chose to vote outside the main lynches.) And anyone's post-flip impressions would be appreciated as well. Definitely want to hear Silver explain the progression of her reads and JarJar, time to kick in, bro. I gave you the benefit of the doubt and your later posting is better, but now that we have solid evidence I expect you to step up. I have already explained my train of thought on ExO. Let's remember that ExO had WW as a scumread, as well. Where's he been since the flip? My reasoning wasn't so much as WW being scum as the fact that right I after I voted Exo, Jar Jar voted me. That put me up to 3 with WW's 4. WW's drive-by softclaim was something I did NOT want to lynch for. My options would've been vote LS to tie and WW dies, anyway. Leave my wasted vote on ExO and WW dies, anyway. As Mafia, if I thought WW was dying anyway, why would I add myself to the wagon? Once Jar Jar pushed me to 3, I was afraid one of the WW or LS votes would end up on me. Yes, I'm admitting I voted to counter my wagon. In my eyes, it makes more sense for me to save who I know is town rather than a softclaim that I had no faith in. Tube's tunneling on WW and pushing me towards him right before EoD didn't help me stick to my guns on being against WW's lynch, either. After WW flipping blue, I have to say I don't have much faith in LS being Town. I mentioned before that I wasn't a fan of the "let's all be friends, we're all town" mentality. It wasn't until the thread was given meta examples of LS's past town play that I started reading LS as null, slightly town. After the flip and deciding to re-read LS's posts, this was a little troubling to me. On January 08 2015 05:11 LightningStrike wrote: In the past scum usually said something what JarJar and Shining said about a lynch being bad. At least my experience since my first game. So I going all in on Shining and if Shining is scum it wont surprise me a bit. If Shining is town I will be shocked tbh with you. On January 08 2015 06:32 LightningStrike wrote: I just tunelled to hard while I was worried about my mom but at least she is feeling much better now. I just couldn't concentrate at all at the time but WW was way more inactive in the thread that all I remember why I went after WW and also I was liking rsoultins post on why to vote WW too. I so lost right now to be honest with you like maybe one of my town reads is scum this game and I just denying it. I hope Day 2 gives me a fresh start on who is scum and who isn't. In the first post, LS is claiming to be ready to go all-in on me. Next post is a claim of tunneling too hard, which LS did not do(Tube did) and a blatant avoiding of a question. LS did not explain what differentiated WW from me at the time. WW was supposedly way more inactive but had about the same amount of posts as me, plus a blue softclaim. Claims to be sheeping Soultin's post on why to vote WW, when Soultin had already begun pointing fingers at me. LS's thoughts all went from "everyone is town" to only following Soultin's logic, which is clear by scumreading me, then voting WW, then wanting to go all in on me D2 but not stating a single reason as to why, other than sheeping Soultin's paragraph for it. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On January 08 2015 05:11 LightningStrike wrote: In the past scum usually said something what JarJar and Shining said about a lynch being bad. At least my experience since my first game. So I going all in on Shining and if Shining is scum it wont surprise me a bit. If Shining is town I will be shocked tbh with you. Also, this. My general understanding is that scum wants blue roles dead, as well as town. In what world does not wanting to lynch someone who just softclaimed blue for fear of them telling the truth and losing a blue role mean I'm scum? | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
On January 08 2015 07:42 The Shining wrote: Also, this. My general understanding is that scum wants blue roles dead, as well as town. In what world does not wanting to lynch someone who just softclaimed blue for fear of them telling the truth and losing a blue role mean I'm scum? The way he soft claimed blue was questionable but it now making sense now that he flipped as Vet but it troubling that he said he had low power on his phone and had to post from his phone so when he made that post why not just hard claim then despite it being Vet? Also guys I wont be here at EoN but when I get back I will vote on Shining until we get a better case on someone being scum. | ||
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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I'll try to address anything tomorrow if I can manage it. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14277 Posts
On January 08 2015 07:56 -Celestial- wrote: Just a heads-up: I'm not sure I'll be around too much tonight. I'm feeling unbelievably ill right now. Really awful stomach pains. I'll try to address anything tomorrow if I can manage it. Take care of yourself first then worry about the game when you feel better. | ||
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Gumdrop
United States35 Posts
So Gumdrop and Celestial already voted outside the wagons, Celestial has already explained away (which I need to have a further look at), but it's Gumdrop's turn, I think Tube called him earlier saying in no world would ExO be done for. It doesn't appear Gumdrop was in thread, but if you were, whom would you have voted for and what are your thoughts now? By pissing away my vote, I effectively voted for the lead. The lead for the entire time was WarWaffle. When he declared his role... it made things troublesome. Was he mafia that was trying to save his own hide? Was he actually a powerful role? Everything reeked of desperation and it wouldn't matter if he was scum or town, he would have done the exact same things to try to save himself from being lynched. I didn't agree with some of his thoughts on his only large scale analysis of peoples alignments, but thats neither here nor there now. I was paralyzed with inaction, because I didn't know what to do and none of the options seemed like good ones. Taking a look at the votes, and based off the information on how tie votes are decided that Trfel gave us, it would have taken at least two people to make a not WarWaffle lynch happen. Looking at the vote tallies from yesterday though, the last second vote changes interest me more than anything else. JarJar and Trfel, neither one of you really explained why you swapped over to join the Shinings lynch mob. You both just gave vague explanations. Can you explain further please? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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