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After reading through SL's filter I really don't buy into the fact that he wasn't confident in his reads.
On January 02 2015 09:35 sicklucker wrote:
Like no whoever switches from gert im going to think is mafia because in your world their together so it doesint matter dont switch your votes this is a great lynch/
On January 02 2015 10:20 sicklucker wrote:
Gerit actually tried to play on new years and failed. Lynch him we can clear me and all sing kumbayas. Then start a new game tomorrow when I dont have a headach and no one has excuses.
On January 02 2015 10:46 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 02 2015 10:44 IAmRobik wrote:On January 02 2015 10:43 Alakaslam wrote:
TheChyz (5): Eden1892, DoctorHelvetica, Vivax, TheChyz, Batsnacks, DoctorHelvetica
until deadline. Oh jeez, that's one ugly looking wagon to be on. Where to move my vote -.- On the confirmed scum who has literally conceded [/blue][/b]
If this isn't confidence, I don't know what is... SL looking really scummy.
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On January 03 2015 10:40 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 09:47 sicklucker wrote:
Yes I was confident in the original lynch. I was confident in the other one too because of who was voting
I really really have a hard time to believe that you would go from that level of confidence in geript to an even higher level of confidence in batsnacks just because your townreads voted him. Because you had hardly mentioned batsnacks at that point.
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On January 03 2015 10:52 Eden1892 wrote:Oops missed this. Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 09:47 sicklucker wrote:
Yes I was confident in the original lynch. I was confident in the other one too because of who was voting OK, I'm running into a problem here. I know people have already brought this up, but I need you to go over this for me one more time. You said here that you switched your vote because you weren't confident in your d1 reads, but it seems to me that your switch is entirely because of confidence in your d1 reads, and you say as much here. Why the discrepancy between the post I linked and the post I quoted?
I think I know who I'm gonna vote tomorrow!
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Wait a minute, if SL is scum then geript kinda has to be as well. Why the fuck would he do that retarded vote switch otherwise?
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I mean I guess its possible that SL would anticipate this and make us misslynch geript after he dies but that seems pretty far fetched TBH. Maybe he is just bad scum then?
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On January 03 2015 11:08 Eden1892 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 11:04 Lazermonkey wrote:
Wait a minute, if SL is scum then geript kinda has to be as well. Why the fuck would he do that retarded vote switch otherwise? I still have reservations about sicklucker. His 4 town reads thing actually checks out pretty good if you read carefully. That's why I took time to ask him specifically about Artanis -- he very clearly said well before any of me/Damdred/Doc switched to batsnacks that he townread all of us, and while he didn't explicitly say as much with Artanis, his answer checked out when I questioned him on that earlier. "Biggest" townreads might have been a stretch, but if sicklucker is mafia and voted batsnacks to save geript, that's one rather powerful act of divine providence to have 4 people he had previously called town all decide to kill a townie over his partner in the last hour of the game to give him a plausible excuse.
I'm not denying he had you guys as town. But that isn't the point. He was suuuper confident in his geript read and then suddenly drops EVERYTHING to vote for someone he had barely mentioned at that point.
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On January 03 2015 11:12 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 11:08 Eden1892 wrote:On January 03 2015 11:04 Lazermonkey wrote:
Wait a minute, if SL is scum then geript kinda has to be as well. Why the fuck would he do that retarded vote switch otherwise? I still have reservations about sicklucker. His 4 town reads thing actually checks out pretty good if you read carefully. That's why I took time to ask him specifically about Artanis -- he very clearly said well before any of me/Damdred/Doc switched to batsnacks that he townread all of us, and while he didn't explicitly say as much with Artanis, his answer checked out when I questioned him on that earlier. "Biggest" townreads might have been a stretch, but if sicklucker is mafia and voted batsnacks to save geript, that's one rather powerful act of divine providence to have 4 people he had previously called town all decide to kill a townie over his partner in the last hour of the game to give him a plausible excuse. I'm not denying he had you guys as town. But that isn't the point. He was suuuper confident in his geript read and then suddenly drops EVERYTHING to vote for someone he had barely mentioned at that point.
And two players on geript were town reads of him as well, right?
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On January 03 2015 11:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Plenty of decent arguments on SL but I think sicklucker's reasoning for voting with his townreads is fine. I can understand it. I've been in plenty of situations near crunch time where I was doubting a lot myself. Hell, even Dr.H switched from his strongest reads to Bats. Feels like a double standard.
Yhea, but the argument is not that he was voting with his townreads but how he did it. He went from being SUUUPER confident in his geript read to voting batsnacks solely based on the fact that 4 of his town reads did that.
DH on the other hand, was clearly suspicious of batsnacks long before he actually voted him. He clearly states what he disliked about batsnacks at all times as well. I really don't think this comparison is very good.
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On January 03 2015 11:39 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 09:14 Lazermonkey wrote:
Not finished reading so prehaps someone already picked up on this. Anyway, take a look at Damdreds filter after the lynch. I think its really wierd to the point where I think its scummy. I feel the targets he is trying to push have been wierd and get the feeling that he is posting more to seem to be contributing than actually trying to figure out scum.
First, he talks about how he needs to get some sort of meta read on Superbia because he seems to see a connection. He then makes two posts about how he is looking at various games and then comes back with the conclusion that no connection was found. Why is it that he needs to SAY this in thread? Couldn't you just look it up and comment later on if he finds something interesting.
Then he talks about how SL and Eden looked bad but also that DH looked wierd. Maybe its just me but its seems really wierd that he proceeds to post more about DH than about SL and Eden. I have a hard time to understand WHY you would choose to focus DH here instead of SL or Eden. I'm still catching up from work but I just had to stop at this post to correct what is being said. The second post shows that hes not really reading my filter since I explained twice at least to the thread. Koshi asked me what I found similar and to show what games I looked at, I took the time went to all of the documented games and showed what I looked at. Because I said something and was asked in response some questions that I delivered on. The last point however I think isa misrepresentation of what I said + Show Spoiler +On January 03 2015 03:35 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 03:30 KelsierSC wrote:On January 03 2015 03:18 Damdred wrote:
Ok i've went over the games of superbia, the two newbie games, fanfic and two mafia games ffl2 and 2p2. (And ate some yummy chinese)
My initial premise is incorrect when I go over the other games.
After some consideration I decided to throw out ffl2 for a couple of reasons, it was not normal for superbia in the sense that he replaced in during the night phase of d1 after batsnacks had gotten lynched for being unrememberable and a few other things (bats was scum here) and had a good many pages to catch up on. Rayn got killed during the night and robik and myself got mod killed (I was mafia) so super really did not have time to spam up the game in any way.
In the newbie games and fanfic it was about the same length, mostly consisting on one liners and some insightful thoughts. Usually came out to 3 pages or so a day besides the 2nd newbie where he averaged 4 pages or so. Which is right in line with his town play but always put his thoughs out their from what i read.
I did notice that even in the game i think isn't good for analysis amount of posts that super likes to bus a bit and make list posts that generally are scum reading all the team mates so if we lynch superbia at any point and he flips scum ritoky is a good place to look, but now isn't the time for associative reads.
The other thing was that besides ffl2 the posting was about on the same pace as the town games but mostly going with the flow.
Soon as super starts posting more I can determine better but I haven't seen in any games super play the lurky role. right... so whats the point? dam who are the scum who voted on bats The point is that, I told Koshi (as I said before) that I was goin to check out superbias past games and try to find if this sort of lurking and sticking votes is alignment indicative because of a past experience I had in ffl2. And I posted the results I found and I was wrong. Batsnacks (7): Justanothertownie, Eden1892, DoctorHelvetica, Artanis[XP], Damdred, sicklucker, IAmRobik These are the people who voted bats. I think that SL, Robik had the least amount of reasons to jump on bats. Some of the reasons that they posted were that they were sheeping basically. Eden and myself look the worst because we told everyone who was thinking about jumping to sit and wait for the flip. SL I think would be the scum there especially since he was the hammer vote I believe and even though he stated he wanted to hammer geript he didn't do it then sounded pretty smug after the flip. I put a spoiler there to condense my post, the only time I mentioned Eden was that Eden and myself looked the worst for telling people to not jump and sit and wait for the flip. So its a bit of a twisting of what I said in my post. I have Eden as town, just pushing mislynches and telling people to stay makes you look bad. It is true that I talked the most about Dr H because I got caught up in a question and went on a filter diving questioning him for a bit then I left for work. So there is that. anyway catching up a bit and @SL, I looked at the four documented games in he database on superbia. Only has 2 mafia games and three town games posted I believe i'm not sure what game he was mafia in that you were in if you want to link me to that one i could expand my thoughts on that a bit but otherwise I just went with what I had.
Fair enough. But my point about you focusing on DH stands, as you pointed out yourself.
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On January 03 2015 11:49 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 11:41 Lazermonkey wrote:On January 03 2015 11:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Plenty of decent arguments on SL but I think sicklucker's reasoning for voting with his townreads is fine. I can understand it. I've been in plenty of situations near crunch time where I was doubting a lot myself. Hell, even Dr.H switched from his strongest reads to Bats. Feels like a double standard. Yhea, but the argument is not that he was voting with his townreads but how he did it. He went from being SUUUPER confident in his geript read to voting batsnacks solely based on the fact that 4 of his town reads did that. DH on the other hand, was clearly suspicious of batsnacks long before he actually voted him. He clearly states what he disliked about batsnacks at all times as well. I really don't think this comparison is very good. I've done something similar once. I tunneled Vivax for a while, Vivax tunneled me and eventually I started reading Vivax strongly as town. Then Promethelax came along and made an emotional appeal on me. I hammered Vivax. People can be influenced even from their strongest reads. Though Dr.H was suspicious of Bats, he clearly favoured a Chyz or Geript lynch as well.
Yes but there is a clear difference between going from voting your top scum read to voting your second or third scum read to voting your top scum read to voting someone you didn't even have a read on at all.
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On January 03 2015 12:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 11:57 Lazermonkey wrote:On January 03 2015 11:49 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On January 03 2015 11:41 Lazermonkey wrote:On January 03 2015 11:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Plenty of decent arguments on SL but I think sicklucker's reasoning for voting with his townreads is fine. I can understand it. I've been in plenty of situations near crunch time where I was doubting a lot myself. Hell, even Dr.H switched from his strongest reads to Bats. Feels like a double standard. Yhea, but the argument is not that he was voting with his townreads but how he did it. He went from being SUUUPER confident in his geript read to voting batsnacks solely based on the fact that 4 of his town reads did that. DH on the other hand, was clearly suspicious of batsnacks long before he actually voted him. He clearly states what he disliked about batsnacks at all times as well. I really don't think this comparison is very good. I've done something similar once. I tunneled Vivax for a while, Vivax tunneled me and eventually I started reading Vivax strongly as town. Then Promethelax came along and made an emotional appeal on me. I hammered Vivax. People can be influenced even from their strongest reads. Though Dr.H was suspicious of Bats, he clearly favoured a Chyz or Geript lynch as well. Yes but there is a clear difference between going from voting your top scum read to voting your second or third scum read to voting your top scum read to voting someone you didn't even have a read on at all. Of course, but I still find it understandable. In my example I even had a townread on Vivax. I was town.
Well fuck. I still think it makes him look really bad but I guess there is some chance for him to be town still. Need to take a closer look tomorrow.
Going to bed now.
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Hi again
On January 03 2015 20:35 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 11:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I find it weird how Palmar/Robik/Vivax all jumped on JAT at pretty much the same time. I have a retarded theory about that that I can only share post-night. Agreed with Marv that especially Vivax' case was reaching. Palmar's feels genuine. I remember him making a post about making no shenannies at night. Unfortunately, I'm a bad boy.
ya. they're all pretty terrible but it's a Palmar-type read so I'm eliminating him. if Robik is town I'm gonna have to adjust my expectations for him down accordingly, but it may just be possible that he's town given Vivax. 1/3 pushing jat like a weirdo seems more likely than 2-3. anyway, we need to kill vivax and not falter. 2 basic reasons 1.a different reaction to basically everyone bar DrH on Chyz 2.the terrible push on jat, particularly twisty shit like jat already demonstrated of cherrypicking his filter 3.koshi will be mad and he's a qt if you're not gonna vote vivax, you need to explain *extremely* clearly why ##vote: Vivax
Could you explain 1. for me? You mean that the fact that his reads are off is making him scum?
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I don't feel like killing SL btw.
Edens + Artanis posts were good.
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On January 03 2015 22:20 KelsierSC wrote:
Too many people want to just afk vote vivax here and do nothing. Why so lazy ?
Marv how does koshi being town make vivax scum? Can you explain what is bad about his case on jat?
No one considers the world where mafia kill.koshi to make.vivax seem bad
Seriously?
Speculating about night kills isn't really going to lead anywhere. Maybe maffia decided that keeping Vivax alive isn't worth the effort. And its not like Koshi was the only one to suspect Vivax.
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My objection to kill Vivax at this point is that he is still refusing to talk about all other lynch targets and keeps on defending himself and/or pushes for people who aren't getting lynched this decade. Couldn't scum Vivax try to hop on some easy target instead of Eden/jat?
Though I don't think this is a super strong argument for Vivax either since it still would mean his town play is garbage.
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@Kel
I'm interested in killing Dam. Just sayin'.
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On January 03 2015 22:44 Lazermonkey wrote:
@Kel
I'm interested in killing Dam. Just sayin'.
And, to avoid missunderstanding, its not because of what I posted yesterday but moreso about that he is really avoiding all relevant discussion and not scum hunting. He is responding to everyone when they are attacking him or asking him questions and yes, you can see that he has scum reads. But he doesn't seem to give a shit about getting them lynched.
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I'll be afk for some hours. see you.
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On January 03 2015 23:35 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 22:41 Lazermonkey wrote:
My objection to kill Vivax at this point is that he is still refusing to talk about all other lynch targets and keeps on defending himself and/or pushes for people who aren't getting lynched this decade. Couldn't scum Vivax try to hop on some easy target instead of Eden/jat?
Though I don't think this is a super strong argument for Vivax either since it still would mean his town play is garbage. Yes good town players only speak about the possible lynches. -.- No, good town players make hard lynches possible.
That wasn't what I said. You have almost completely ignored the possible lynches and only spoken about the impossible lynches.
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EPT
