TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells
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Trfel
6474 Posts
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Trfel
6474 Posts
I'm currently on page 40. I was definitely not ready for the amount of posts that would be in a game with so few people. But at this rate, I will not be able to catch up in the thread by the voting deadline. I will keep checking the voting thread, and if it seems that 27ninjabunnies comes closer to not being lynched, I will change my vote. | ||
Trfel
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On December 11 2014 07:07 Vivax wrote: Reason for popping up just before the lynch? I've seen your town play and it was impressive, and this game you afked all day long? I noticed the thread right when it came up, and I tried to follow it, but got behind super quickly. I still made sure to look up when the lynch deadline is. I'm not sure if this game follows the mandatory voting rule, as I didn't see that listed on the first page, but to be safe, I voted in a way that does not affect anything. Again, if that changes, I will change my vote. I will do a far better job at being active in the thread, I just need to catch up first. Which, to be honest, will probably take me the rest of the evening to read, take notes, filter everyone, and check all of the statements. I could provide reads based on the first ~40 pages of the thread, but that feels really pointless, so I won't do that unless (for some reason) people really want me to. | ||
Trfel
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What are some good strategies to effectively playing in a Mafia game that is this long, and has this many players? A lot of filter reading and note-taking, or what? | ||
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On December 11 2014 08:40 Koshi wrote: Focus on a couple people that you know. Or some reads you trust. And go from there. Vivax and Holyflare seem to be town for now (or at least, my biggest townreads at the moment). However, I'm not sold on the Xatalos scumread yet. I will definitely take another look at that when I can. | ||
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On December 11 2014 08:43 Trfel wrote: Vivax and Holyflare seem to be town for now (or at least, my biggest townreads at the moment). However, I'm not sold on the Xatalos scumread yet. I will definitely take another look at that when I can. I will add batsnacks and Fecalfeast to my list of tentative townreads. Need to head out now, but the main people I plan on investigating are Koshi, Damdred, Xatalos, LightningStrike, Tubesock, and KelsierSC. | ||
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On December 11 2014 10:32 Holyflare wrote: Sure.Can you explain your poopfeast420 read because a lot of people have the opposite read Reading his filter, he seemed really scummy at first, especially this post: On December 09 2014 09:33 Fecalfeast wrote: I don't expect you to have read my other town games but I've gotten exponentially worse as town. GB do you have a comment on the current votes or discussion? Since then, he seems to have provided some fine analysis. I don't really agree with his conclusions, but he seems to be trying to find the mafia. Mostly looking at his list post here, as well as his analysis of The_Templar's post. I suppose that the post on The_Templar is extremely picky with no real conclusion, but I can see where he is coming from. He hasn't been doing an amazing job of scumreading, but for now it seems to be good enough that he seems to lean slightly towards town. If you don't mind, can you point me to the reasons why other people think he is scum? | ||
Trfel
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On December 11 2014 11:18 ritoky wrote: a glance through my and lonemeow's filter should do the trick for you on that one. Ok, thanks. I hope to get to it later tonight, but at latest, tomorrow. | ||
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On December 12 2014 01:09 GlowingBear wrote: Koshi is mafia, c'mon. Do I have a post count in my filter or I have to count one by one? I believe that each page of filter is twenty posts, so you only need to count the last page to get an accurate count (and I suppose subtract your pre-game posts). | ||
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On December 12 2014 09:13 Holyflare wrote: Did you read what lonemeow/kita/me wrote about him? Yes, I have. I have also filter read his posts multiple times. If you would like, I can elaborate, but unfortunately I will be really busy for a bit. In summary, his play is mostly fluff, but that doesn't incriminate someone (see Alakaslam, batsnacks, for example). And in the remaining posts, while I disagree, I see little reason to believe that those are his honest opinions after searching for scum. | ||
Trfel
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On December 12 2014 09:28 Holyflare wrote: What do you mean by this? That you don't believe it's ff's honest opinion? Also if his play is mostly fluff and a lot of his play has mafiay agendas behind it as referenced mainly by lm, the bunnies point is so excellent, then just because other people play a similar way (i don't know why you actually mentioned slam and batsnacks when you have no idea what alignment they are??) doesn't mean he can't be scummy. Interested why you actually come to this conclusion at all. Sorry, that sentence should have read "And in the remaining posts, while I disagree, I see little reason to believe that those aren't his honest opinions after searching for scum. I'll take another look at Fecalfeast, and then move on to some other players. | ||
Trfel
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On December 13 2014 15:39 batsnacks wrote: You have a -lot- more reasons for Trfel being mafia but you don't care about that at all, do you? How many reasons are there for me being mafia? I count a grand total of one: lack of participation in the thread. To be fair, that is a pretty big reason. I'm doing my best to change that. I reiterate, the size of this game is giving me a ton of trouble, and I haven't been able to come up with anything amazing yet. I am really sorry that I haven't been able to play at the level that I hoped to play at, no excuses. I will keep trying my best, as that is all I can do. Hoping to come up with something soon, as I'm actually quite embarrassed by the amount of time I have spent on this game to not come up with any original scumreads. | ||
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On December 13 2014 15:46 batsnacks wrote: WHY DON'T YOU STOP TRYING TO BE AMAZING AND JUST POST SHIT Literally, shit. Post it. That's what everyone else is doing right now. It's SHIT. Maybe your SHIT is better than their SHIT? It can't be worse. And perhaps that is what is helping to make this game confusing for me? I'm not going to say something until I have something worth saying. Give me a bit to put a real post together. | ||
Trfel
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On December 13 2014 15:47 Trfel wrote: And perhaps that is what is helping to make this game confusing for me? I'm not going to say something until I have something worth saying. Give me a bit to put a real post together. To add, I'm on page 96 right now. | ||
Trfel
6474 Posts
First, other than me being a lurker, the only argument is a meta read. Which is based off of a whole one game. A student mafia game, with 13-14 people, where I was shot on Night 1. Meaning, I played for 72 hours in an "easy" game and only had to read ~30 pages the entire time. Then, I jumped into a game with ~26 players, including several veterans and skilled players. And it's already over 100 posts. I'm simply not able to play at the same level I was last game, and yes, that's not ideal. In addition, one thing that my last game taught me is that meta reads have limited use. So at the moment, I don't intend to make any meta reads. That doesn't mean I'm not trying, it just means that I decided that spending hours pouring over previous games for minimal value isn't a good use of time. Again, I realize 100% that I appear to be a very good lynch. But that is just for me being a policy lynch, the meta argument really lacks backing. My request is that people spend the next while looking into other people to lynch, as with this much time in the day I don't believe you should start looking at a policy lynch already. Anyway, I'll be looking at Fecalfeast's filter and the cases made against him again now. If anyone has any (specific) questions they would like me to answer, I should be up for a short while. But I will ignore general questions like "who is scum", as I'll answer that when I can. | ||
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Excluding that, I still am not that happy with a Fecalfeast lynch. Here is why. Fecalfeast hasn't presented any real reasons to read him as town. I'm not happy with him, and he's obviously playing badly (he's admitted several times that he hasn't been keeping up with the thread). That doesn't make him mafia, though, it just makes him lazy. I've read the cases on him, or at least all of the cases I could easily find. They generally seem weak, with the main argument being that he is doing a poor job of finding scum. While I disagree with many of the reads he presents in his list post, I get the impression that he is thinking, and I can see how someone would reach those conclusions. Basically, there doesn't seem to be much evidence against Fecalfeast, besides a simple policy lynch. And at this point, I really hope we can come up with something better than a policy lynch. One example is Tubesock, who feels better than a policy lynch to me due to some of the weird posting and the potential "scumslip". I still hope that there is a better target, though. Looking at Oatsmaster and Vivax's case on him next. | ||
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One more thing I found interesting about the Oatsmaster argument. On December 13 2014 16:10 Oatsmaster wrote: Do I care? no. Trefel or Froggy is it today. Actually do I prefer trefel? Yes yes i do. ##unvote ##vote Trefel Last game (Student Mafia IV), Oatsmaster attacked batsnacks early on for advocating a policy lynch on kusmh4sta. This game, in the middle of discussion, Oatsmaster ignores it and advises what is basically a policy lynch instead. I'd definitely like to know why your views on policy lynches have changed, Oatsmaster. | ||
Trfel
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I'll be back after lunch. Again, if anyone has any questions for me, I'm happy to answer. | ||
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I saw your question, rsoultin. I'm reading over Holyflare's filter again, then I'll get to ritoky's filter. I'll post conclusions when I am finished. | ||
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On December 14 2014 05:30 rsoultin wrote: ##unvote ##vote: KSC ^ My concession. Those on HF or Tube who don't really think they're scum, please jump on. I'm actually making an post on KelsierSC right now. | ||
Trfel
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The first real thing he does in the game are these posts, which I'm sure everyone is familiar with: On December 09 2014 08:46 KelsierSC wrote: So i have noticed something with this set up. If you are scrooge just claim. On December 09 2014 08:55 KelsierSC wrote: Ah ignore my scrooge comment i misread one of the roles On December 09 2014 09:30 KelsierSC wrote: So i think fecal is scum, we played a game together as town and early game he was very try hard, essentially Kush made a set up/mechanics comment and fecal went back to the setup, worked through all the permutations and then asked Kush to explain. Super town super eager. this game i make a set up comment, then retract it and ff doesn't bat n eyelid. All he does is talk to slam about sumo. Which is pretty pointless. Like "herez an excuse nit to scumhunt" it doesn't feel towny at all This feels really weak to me, especially now that KelsierSC linked the game that he refers to. I don't understand how he can possibly find Fecalfeast the slightest bit scummy for this. It feels like he is really forcing this read from nothing, while potentially identifying a stupid Scrooge (which happened...) and appearing towny. On December 09 2014 09:12 KelsierSC wrote: i saw you play town and this feels like town, I'm happy with the read for d1 Same with his early townread on Holyflare. Even Holyflare says that it is weak, and I agree. We've already established that Holyflare is really good at playing Mafia, and that makes it really hard to identify him. So no, a meta case that early into the game isn't very good. This post again lacks substance, and feels like he is making a read for the purpose of making a read. On December 09 2014 09:51 KelsierSC wrote: Hf, bats have you played with ff much? What is his d1 like normally? This post seems to take even more force out of his meta case on Fecalfeast. Is it really a good argument, if he isn't sure himself what Fecalfeast's day 1 play is like? KelsierSC and I seem to be the only two people who read batsnacks as town for the post he made on Half the Sky. (Since then, batsnacks' play has made me much more suspicious, but that isn't the point of this post). The weird thing is, KelsierSC read batsnacks as town because he agreed with batsnacks' post. The validity of batsnacks' post has since been shown to be very questionable, but KelsierSC hasn't changed his stance. KelsierSC then spends several posts focusing on Alakaslam. Here is his explanation. On December 09 2014 10:37 KelsierSC wrote: Later, he goes back on this and says that this didn't end up working out. More words, less analysis.I'm not reading slam. But the free town passes he is getting are good info. especially people who call him semi town.. Wtf is that His scum list seems to be changing without that much explanation. He says that he would happily vote 27nb, but doesn't include her in his lynch list. And his inclusion of Vivax in the lynch list for bad reads seems strange. Bad reads don't necessarily make someone scum, it is the intent behind them. And these reads are seeming forced. Later, he comes back with a new post, and Vivax isn't mentioned in his scum reads at all. The point about his changing stance on ritoky is also interesting. He puts ritoky into his town circle, then adds him to his lynch list, saying he has done absolutely nothing. His explanation of this is that he forgot he had him in his town circle. Shouldn't his reads be the same every time, even if he forgot all of his previous reads? If he was trying hard to make real reads, they would. If his read changed due to new information, that would be good, but the only new information he provided is that a few people scumread him. "I forgot" and "others are scumreading him" are not good reasons to change a read like that, he should at least investigate the case himself. In conclusion, I would be happy to lynch KelsierSC. Moreso than Fecalfeast, anyway. Obviously it's not certain, but it seems better than anything else. Now I will take a look at GlowingBear's complete case on Holyflare. | ||
Trfel
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On December 14 2014 06:15 Vivax wrote: Let's just assume for a moment you're town. Why are you playing this game? You complain whenever there's something new to read, you don't try to find scum, and when you do it's by you being a passive prick that wants to die, saying that scum are the people pushing you and your argument for that is your alignment post-flip. The thought that you might be town scares me. Let's assume for a moment that Fecalfeast is mafia. He's playing terribly in that respect too. He's got a huge wagon on him, and he just says he doesn't want to play and that he shouldn't have signed up for the game. That's true no matter his alignment. He obviously is too busy to play this game. That doesn't make him town or mafia, that makes him inactive. There are better lynches. | ||
Trfel
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I'm still working through your case, GlowingBear. I read slowly, and I hope you would agree that you would rather that I read it well than read it poorly. When I finish, I will share my thoughts. Thanks a bunch for typing it up and consolidating it, though. | ||
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I don't really like reading too much into people's entrances. Partly because they are really easy to pick apart, partly because I'm really bad at entering a thread myself. His post doesn't say much of anything, but it does provide good advice to people and a standard to hold him to later (which he hasn't entirely met, as many of his posts are in fact pretty useless, but it's next to impossible to play Mafia with zero wastes posts). I'll leave Holyflare as null for this point. I believe batsnacks did the same thing, picking on Half the Sky while ignoring Vivax for the same argument. It isn't inherently mafia. Though it is suspicious that he goes after 27ninjabunnies so aggressively without much reasoning to back it (to be fair it is early in the game, but still). Perhaps he is fishing for a reaction, but he never wavered at all. Being suspicious of the wasted voters seems weird. Same with his counter push on ritoky, it seems more forced and a reaction to being pressured. Still though, he obviously can't be super suspicious of everyone with a wasted vote, as that is way too many. This doesn't provide a scumread on froggynoddy for the wasted vote, so I don't think there is much contradiction there. It doesn't feel conclusive, but it does seem suspicious. The last point is pretty funny. In the end, I'm not completely sold. It's a good case and I do like it, but I think that KelsierSC seems a bit more likely to be mafia than Holyflare. I will switch vote to Holyflare if that will cause him to be lynched instead of Fecalfeast, but otherwise KelsierSC seems like the best vote for now. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=122#2423 Holyflare case: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=121#2402 | ||
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On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote: Lynch HF I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post. | ||
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On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote: Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really. What did you think of my criticism of his post? I'd love for someone to show me why I am wrong. | ||
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On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote: Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really. Vivax, you're so analytical, and you've been among my top townreads all game. I posted my analysis of GlowingBear's post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=129#2562 If that is all that convinced you, what do you have to say about this analysis? Where am I wrong? It just seems weird that you have been providing evidence and reads for stuff all game long, and here you just say this one post convinced you, even when I asked for you to elaborate. Not sure what I'm supposed to think. | ||
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On December 14 2014 07:47 liancourt wrote: why did truffels move his vote? Last game, my first TL Mafia game, I made two big scum calls. I was wrong on both. I suppose I've lost a good bit of self confidence at Mafia. Now I presented a case that (I feel) is strong, but isn't foolproof. And it instantly gathered tons of support. Meanwhile, several veterans and people that I trust (namely GlowingBear and Vivax) are sticking with the Holyflare lynch. That makes me worry that the Mafia are using my case to avoid a Holyflare lynch. Still though, it's really weird that Vivax hasn't provided anything of his own on GlowingBear. I am happy with either lynch. It's really hard to call. Not voting for KelsierSC doesn't mean that I don't want to see him lynched. Him being in the hospital does make me more reluctant to lynch him, though, and I am okay with giving him a day to redeem himself (same with Fecalfeast). | ||
Trfel
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Vivax, at some point I would really appreciate a response to what I mentioned earlier. | ||
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On December 14 2014 08:03 sicklucker wrote: Some good rng there ksc was clearly drugged out of his mind and could have been either To be fair, my case was heavily, if not entirely, based on pre-hospital posts. I do hope for a speedy and complete recovery for KelsierSC. On December 14 2014 08:04 rsoultin wrote: Lolol NOW will ppl bother looking at friggin GB? He insisted we should keep the vote between FF and HF I want to see him respond to my comments on his Holyflare case. The Holyflare case clearly did not start as an attempt to avoid KelsierSC being lynched. GlowingBear posted his case before I posted mine. It might have been used that way, but it certainly didn't start that way. | ||
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On December 14 2014 08:08 ritoky wrote: I would like everyone to post who they think I should shoot tonight and why. Unless I'm missing something, please don't do this. If the mafia know who you are planning on shooting, they can roleblock you if you choose a mafia, or let you shoot if you choose a town. | ||
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On December 14 2014 08:31 ritoky wrote: the guy who started the wagon jumped off 4 mins before the end to try to cause shennanies.....even after he made a really good case....i am so confused by that On December 14 2014 07:54 Trfel wrote: Last game, my first TL Mafia game, I made two big scum calls. I was wrong on both. I suppose I've lost a good bit of self confidence at Mafia. Now I presented a case that (I feel) is strong, but isn't foolproof. And it instantly gathered tons of support. Meanwhile, several veterans and people that I trust (namely GlowingBear and Vivax) are sticking with the Holyflare lynch. That makes me worry that the Mafia are using my case to avoid a Holyflare lynch. Still though, it's really weird that Vivax hasn't provided anything of his own on GlowingBear. I am happy with either lynch. It's really hard to call. Not voting for KelsierSC doesn't mean that I don't want to see him lynched. Him being in the hospital does make me more reluctant to lynch him, though, and I am okay with giving him a day to redeem himself (same with Fecalfeast). | ||
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On December 14 2014 08:48 sicklucker wrote: Like I want to post a list of 3 people who I think mafia will kill tonight (they have 2kp) Is this a good idea? I just want to help them decide if they should come out right before the end of night and not risk dying thoughts? I don't think it's a good idea. Trust other people and let them make their own decisions. I could be wrong, though. | ||
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On December 14 2014 11:18 The_Templar wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23433611 If me talking about RNG was a reliable method to finding mafia, 23433611 mod 19 (remaining players in the game) is 18, meaning it would be Trfel. Shucks, you got me. | ||
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KelsierSC said that he is just getting back from the hospital and couldn't properly read the thread to find the case on him. I see no reason to doubt that he just didn't see the voting situation and didn't realize that he could save himself by voting for Holyflare. | ||
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On December 14 2014 12:43 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Holyflare, your bit about Kelsier calling you town meaning that you're town is awful. Gotta go with ObiWanShinobi and rsoultin on this one. | ||
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On December 14 2014 12:59 rsoultin wrote: Agreed on the one point and debunked all your others ^^ That was when you called me a gnat as I recall. Why did you switch? Which part of GBs case convinced you? Yes, I would like to know the answer to this, as well as if you still think that Holyflare is scum, and why or why not? | ||
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On December 14 2014 14:10 Vivax wrote: I rather think not just cause of the wagons, he's probably the counterwagon to Kelsier. Why did you switch your vote to him without saying it in thread? On December 14 2014 07:41 Trfel wrote: Switching to Holyflare because of a gut call. It's hard to explain. If someone really wants me to, I can try though. On December 14 2014 07:54 Trfel wrote: Last game, my first TL Mafia game, I made two big scum calls. I was wrong on both. I suppose I've lost a good bit of self confidence at Mafia. Now I presented a case that (I feel) is strong, but isn't foolproof. And it instantly gathered tons of support. Meanwhile, several veterans and people that I trust (namely GlowingBear and Vivax) are sticking with the Holyflare lynch. That makes me worry that the Mafia are using my case to avoid a Holyflare lynch. Still though, it's really weird that Vivax hasn't provided anything of his own on GlowingBear. I am happy with either lynch. It's really hard to call. Not voting for KelsierSC doesn't mean that I don't want to see him lynched. Him being in the hospital does make me more reluctant to lynch him, though, and I am okay with giving him a day to redeem himself (same with Fecalfeast). If anyone has any further questions about this, I'm listening. | ||
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I believe you mean intentionally following someone else and copying their reasoning. I sheeped GlowingBear and Vivax to vote for Holyflare. Holyflare, we all know you are an extremely convincing and dominating player. Unfortunately, that's making it really hard for me to townread you, since your mafia play is that good. Which is another reason that I decided to follow some veterans. My case on KelsierSC was made completely independently. I just looked at his filter and went top to bottom. If it lined up with your case, that was without me looking at it. | ||
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On December 14 2014 14:35 Vivax wrote: Sorry, I asked for your additions on GlowingBear's case, not your thoughts on GlowingBear's alignment. My claim that you had none is directly based on your response: Oh and Trfel I forgot you wanted to see my additions on GB and you claimed I have none, well, that's what I initially thought of him when he started posting against HF, I guess you missed it in my filter? + Show Spoiler + On December 13 2014 11:23 Vivax wrote: @ GB So you thought froggynoddys entrance was bad but didn't give a shit about him afterwards, also you include arguments for him being scum but only focus on HF today. Needless to say how that looks to me. Unless you have an explanation for only bringing up that entry as scummy now that you use it in your case against HF. Not impressed at all. On December 13 2014 14:16 Vivax wrote: Fact of the matter is that I have arguments for both GB and FF being scum, not just gut reads. The gut reads are basically everyone else (Templar, trfel) since those arguments rely on their meta. GB's stance regarding froggy doesn't make sense since he scumreads him for his entrance but doesn't try to analyse his templar read further besides saying "it's ok". Also he says it's ok but he doesn't scumread templar so I wonder how he can find a read ok if he doesn't agree with it? Plus his narrowness on having HF as scumread and not openly considering a froggy lynch even though he gave all the arguments for his being a scum entrance. On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote: Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really. | ||
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Is it really that suspicious that I constructed my own argument without looking at someone else's? I read the posts looking for information based on what KelsierSC said, not for what others said about him. I've already stated that I don't feel like I can read everything as carefully as I would like in such a large game, so I limited myself to KelsierSC's filter and any outside information I deemed necessary while reading the filter. I will take another look tomorrow to attempt to get a read from this Holyflare/GlowingBear mess. Right now, I won't offer reads about either player since I haven't given the arguments much attention since the lynch. I am sorry that I forgot about the Holyflare defense post, that was pretty sloppy of me. Also, agreeing with someone doesn't mean you have to townread them. GlowingBear said that he was okay with lynching KelsierSC as well, so do I need to townread both of you? | ||
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On December 14 2014 15:06 Holyflare wrote: Yes because as you literally just stated you are reading kelsiers filter and i just linked page 2 of his filter where he's literally just arguing with me about the town read on me and the batsnacks town read. He even quotes my posts many many times. I think it's bad that if you base 2/3 of your case on something that isn't original thought and if you actually read his filter to make a case you'd instantly know it isn't (there is absolutely no way I'd see you missing something so evident) that you would even contemplate voting them off when they aren't around to talk over someone you made a case on! You even sheeped vivax when he called gb scummy all day yet jumped on me and you even said gb's case on me was bad iirc??? I literally have no idea how you could ignore a fecal wagon all game but so easily jump on someone you should be super hesitant about lynching especially over your own case/my points. Well, I believe this is my 17th post for the night, so I don't plan on posting much more before the day phase. Plus, I don't plan on arguing with you about this any more, as it just won't go anywhere productive. I will turn my attention back to finding scum instead of defending myself. My main points: 1. Whether or not I used your posts to build my case is completely irrelevant. It simply doesn't matter. KelsierSC is dead, move on. 2. Even if I did copy your case exactly for my case, I don't see why that makes my vote for you suspicious. You can make an argument as town or scum. 3. I didn't ignore the Fecalfeast lynch, I addressed it several times. I just feel that his play is poor, but not necessarily scummy. I feel like the Holyflare case has much more force than the Fecalfeast case. | ||
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On December 14 2014 15:59 Holyflare wrote: Then when a mislynch opportunity arose you were quite quick to dismiss your entire case on your mafia buddy to lynch me. I don't see this at all. GlowingBear's Holyflare case was posted BEFORE I posted my KelsierSC case. In fact, I referenced this case in the last line of my case. All this time, the Holyflare case gathered momentum, but I only switched to Holyflare AFTER KelsierSC finally took the lead in the vote count. If I was mafia, why would I do that? I admit that it was a stupid thing to do. But it happened. Whether I'm town or mafia, it was a stupid thing to do. I do like GlowingBear's case on you. It's not amazing, but I do like it, and it doesn't feel like a mafia-produced case (though GlowingBear may be mafia for other reasons, I haven't looked closely yet). I posted my criticisms of it looking for a response from GlowingBear, Vivax, or one of the other Holyflare voters, not because I didn't like the case. | ||
Trfel
6474 Posts
Here is a list of every reason why I changed my vote: 1. Lack of confidence in my own reads after being wrong on 2/2 big reads in the Student Mafia IV game 2. Confusion over what's happening in the game and being unable to follow everything as carefully as I would like 3. Holyflare is a very strong player and will provide strong arguments against being lynched as either alignment 4. My case on KelsierSC picked up a lot of support very quickly, which I found really weird, since it didn't feel quite as strong as the cases I made in the previous game, and those cases didn't build up much support despite my constant pressure 5. I trusted the reads of veterans like GlowingBear and Vivax over my own 6. I agreed with Vivax that the way GlowingBear was going about pushing the Holyflare lynch seemed towny I could have missed something, but I think that's about it. On December 14 2014 16:23 Holyflare wrote: I don't know how obvious an answer you want but not killing a team mate seems like an obvious one to your statement. Yes, if I was mafia I can see that I would switch votes to Holyflare to avoid KelsierSC, my mafia buddy, getting lynched. But what I cannot see is why I would choose that time to switch. It's basically the worst time for it. Plus, in the event that KelsierSC had avoided the lynch, it cost me the town credit I might have gained (see Vivax's post). Again, it was a moronic thing to do, regardless of my alignment. | ||
Trfel
6474 Posts
There could be one Ghost of Christmas Present, or fifteen, or zero. Counterclaiming doesn't prove anything about LightningStrike's alignment. The lack of a counterclaim also doesn't show anything about LightningStrike, since the Ghost of Christmas Present could simply have chosen not to claim, or there could be zero of that role in the game. | ||
Trfel
6474 Posts
Vivax Vivax seems... strange. I'm not really sure what to make of it. The first thing to note is, he has been making a lot of reads. From looking at his filter, here's what I found. + Show Spoiler [Vivax's Reads] + suspicious of 27ninjabunnies suspicious of ritoky suspicious of Tubesock suspicious of KelsierSC suspicious of Xatalos suspicious of rsoultin no longer suspicious of Xatalos suspicious of batsnacks less suspicious of batsnacks suspicious of Fecalfeast suspicious of Trfel suspicious of GlowingBear suspicious of The_Templar suspicious of Oatsmaster suspicious of Holyflare suspicious of Xatalos I think that this is just a playstyle, and not a sign of being mafia. It's not good or bad. Also, his reads are all well-explained and what he is doing makes sense to me. Really, I don't see any signs of him being scum here. Except, his play leading up to the day 2 lynch deadline has felt a bit off to me. On page 120, GlowingBear posts Part 2 of his case on Holyflare. The full case summary is posted on page 121. On page 122, I post a case on KelsierSC. Vivax posts a few pages after this, but doesn't respond to either case. Then he mentions the Holyflare case on page 125 and says he is tempted to go for it, and then votes for Holyflare on page 126. No mention of the KelsierSC case at all, despite being suspicious of him earlier in the game. On page 129, I post a response to GlowingBear's case, hoping for a response from one of the GlowingBear voters. Vivax posts like this: On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote: Lynch HF On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote: Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really. No reference at all to the KelsierSC case, no original reasons for lynching Holyflare, no response to the criticism I presented of the Holyflare case, no sign of the critical thinking and analytical Vivax that I saw throughout the rest of the game. The only town explanation I can come up with for Vivax is that he was reading sporadically and missed my repeated questions on GlowingBear's case, and really was that convinced by GlowingBear's case that he didn't mention the KelsierSC case in an attempt to gather support for lynching Holyflare instead. I'm very hesitant to call Vivax mafia for this. It's the only suspicious thing I see in his filter, while the rest of his play seems to be searching for mafia and being constructive. In the end I leave him at null/town, but he is definitely on my watch list. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ batsnacks It's sort of the same thing for batsnacks. The fact that I tried to get batsnacks lynched last game for not providing scumreads and him ending up being town is still heavily in the back of my mind. So I'm not going to try and get a read on him, but here's some thoughts. Batsnacks makes an early read on Half the Sky, and his reasons for this read have been heavily criticized. I still think this read makes him seem a bit towny, but I could be wrong. His push on LightningStrike is good, too. Batsnacks clearly noticed that I posted a case on KelsierSC, and he put KelsierSC into his "would lynch" list. His vote remained on Holyflare, and he seemed desperate to get people to switch from KelsierSC to Holyflare. He never provided comments on the KelsierSC case, either. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ GlowingBear I don't have a big read on GlowingBear yet. I am just including him here because he pushed on Holyflare over KelsierSC, and it would seem incomplete if I mentioned Vivax and batsnacks without mentioning GlowingBear. The main reason I find GlowingBear's push on Holyflare instead of KelsierSC less suspicious than the two previous cases is that GlowingBear acknowledged the KelsierSC case and said that he was fine with a KelsierSC lynch. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Fecalfeast I've been defending Fecalfeast a bit throughout day 2. I suppose that was the first controversial read I made all game, since I only started seriously being suspicious of KelsierSC midway through day 2. Anyway, I maintain that Fecalfeast's play seems to be poor town instead of inactive mafia. He should be on a relatively short leash, though. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ sicklucker I said I wouldn't make meta reads. Well, here's a meta read. The main reason is because I tend to have trouble understanding sicklucker's arguments, so I usually somewhat ignore him. Usually, sicklucker is constantly posting and providing tons of different thoughts. Last game, he said that he likes to make fast reads and he was making reads all over the place. One example of that is when I posted a long post on batsnacks, sicklucker responded “I haven't read your post yet, but you are so town for writing that up”. This game, he has definitely done weird things and made a lot of posts, but they are all related to setup, presents, and roles. Very few reads. I don't think it makes sicklucker scum, but I don't see him as a sure town like some other people do. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Then there's the arguments between Vivax and Xatalos, and GlowingBear and Holyflare. I haven't put enough time into the recent development of those cases, so I don't feel that I have a right to offer an opinion of those cases at the moment. I hope to look heavily into those tomorrow. In case I die, good luck and happy scumhunting! | ||
Trfel
6474 Posts
Congratulations town! Nice work. Definitely a lot of fun to play in, and thanks a bunch to Palmar and marv for hosting! Looking forward to the next game. | ||
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