EPTTL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells - Page 5
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Vivax
21978 Posts
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Vivax
21978 Posts
On December 14 2014 12:31 rsoultin wrote: Lol...I remember your Xatalos case and only thinking one point was even worth considering. And today it's all about analyzing NKs as proof against FF, completely ignoring suspicions of Trfel before he came out with his case, scumreading people for not liking your NK analysis and jumping ship off of KSC which is a vote you were in on when it wasn't gaining much traction for no other reason than you read someone else's case and it convinced you. Not even an explanation as to which part convinced you or why despite being asked multiple times. You are firmly in my scum circle right now, buddy. Unless you care to clear all this up for me. So when Trfel was bats tom scumspect and bats literally begged me to form a wagon on him, but I refused cause in my mind there was legitimately bigger fish to fry, why didn't I do it when he appeared as such an easy lynch? Easy answer: I'm town. Or my interaction where I argue for ages with Kelsier, is that scum/scum in your opinion? Until you clear up these questions I'm not scum. Worst case I'm a townie who's wrong, so tell me where I'm wrong (and weren't you the guy who agreed with me on my Xata case after some talk? Or was it tube) | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
On December 14 2014 12:59 rsoultin wrote: Agreed on the one point and debunked all your others ^^ That was when you called me a gnat as I recall. Why did you switch? Which part of GBs case convinced you? Can't say, just the overall case sounded convincing to me and I got reservations about lynching FF when some guy told me he plays like that as town, so I was looking for another wagon. GB going nuts about lynching HF looked townie to me so I trusted his judgement to that extent (as in, assumed the case was not mafia motivated). Can't really point to a specific point that I found particularly convincing, HF claims it's all lies now and I was too lazy to fact check so for now I'm back to zero and prefer to start over again by analysing what Kelsier did, and the wagons in general. At this stage if I take a wild guess, then HF was the scum's wagon, or FF. Or both. | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
Guess I was too hasty with townreading him for that lynch. | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
Would you care to try and find the scum in the wagons of the lynch? It's 7 to 8 and I would figure there were attempts from scum to stop Kelsier from being lynched. Check Oats vote on me. Useless. And he's not the guy who doesn't care where his vote is, when he's town. Would be cool to have some fresh perspective on the game that doesn't just revolve around GB. We're dealing with multiple scummers. | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
On December 14 2014 14:04 Trfel wrote: Vivax. Do you still think that Holyflare is scum? Why or why not? I rather think not just cause of the wagons, he's probably the counterwagon to Kelsier. Why did you switch your vote to him without saying it in thread? | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
On December 13 2014 11:23 Vivax wrote: @ GB So you thought froggynoddys entrance was bad but didn't give a shit about him afterwards, also you include arguments for him being scum but only focus on HF today. Needless to say how that looks to me. Unless you have an explanation for only bringing up that entry as scummy now that you use it in your case against HF. Not impressed at all. On December 13 2014 14:16 Vivax wrote: Fact of the matter is that I have arguments for both GB and FF being scum, not just gut reads. The gut reads are basically everyone else (Templar, trfel) since those arguments rely on their meta. GB's stance regarding froggy doesn't make sense since he scumreads him for his entrance but doesn't try to analyse his templar read further besides saying "it's ok". Also he says it's ok but he doesn't scumread templar so I wonder how he can find a read ok if he doesn't agree with it? Plus his narrowness on having HF as scumread and not openly considering a froggy lynch even though he gave all the arguments for his being a scum entrance. | ||
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Vivax
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Vivax
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On December 14 2014 14:42 Trfel wrote: Sorry, I asked for your additions on GlowingBear's case, not your thoughts on GlowingBear's alignment. My claim that you had none is directly based on your response: Well in that case, I have nothing to add. I sheeped that case cause it convinced me in that particular moment when I started to feel less sure about the FF read. Do with it what you will, but I can't think of stuff I came up with on my own to scumread HF. Yes, it's lazy, but I don't want to make it appear like I did when I really didn'T. | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
 On September 14 2014 02:20 Oatsmaster wrote: I really need to go to sleep. Sheep me Vivax. but dont fucking lynch me. I will come to your house and pee on your plants if you do. Anyway, read Oats filter from this post on, he's super tryhard and even posts at 2 am to make his point clear. He doesn't just leave his vote somewhere and call it a day. | ||
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Vivax
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/465384-mission-mini-mafia?user=Oatsmaster&view=all | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
Like super mafia. | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
On December 14 2014 15:08 sicklucker wrote: Also trefels is almost certainly town for pushing that lynch even if he changed his vote (which I also read as town) . I thought that was so obvious another reason of many to scum read vivax. So you scumread people for having an opinion that differs from yours at some point?You should scumread the entire playerbase then. It's pretty obvious that if someone dismisses his own case on scum to switch to not-scum then it's worth an inquiry. | ||
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Vivax
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For Trfel: + Show Spoiler + On December 14 2014 16:28 Trfel wrote: I never changed my mind about wanting to see KelsierSC lynched. I tried to make that clear when I changed my vote. Here is a list of every reason why I changed my vote: 1. Lack of confidence in my own reads after being wrong on 2/2 big reads in the Student Mafia IV game 2. Confusion over what's happening in the game and being unable to follow everything as carefully as I would like 3. Holyflare is a very strong player and will provide strong arguments against being lynched as either alignment 4. My case on KelsierSC picked up a lot of support very quickly, which I found really weird, since it didn't feel quite as strong as the cases I made in the previous game, and those cases didn't build up much support despite my constant pressure 5. I trusted the reads of veterans like GlowingBear and Vivax over my own 6. I agreed with Vivax that the way GlowingBear was going about pushing the Holyflare lynch seemed towny I could have missed something, but I think that's about it. Yes, if I was mafia I can see that I would switch votes to Holyflare to avoid KelsierSC, my mafia buddy, getting lynched. But what I cannot see is why I would choose that time to switch. It's basically the worst time for it. Plus, in the event that KelsierSC had avoided the lynch, it cost me the town credit I might have gained (see Vivax's post). Again, it was a moronic thing to do, regardless of my alignment. To the bolded: If you switched and Kelsier didn't flip, there would've been no cred to be gained, but you also would have kept a teammate which is way better than cred. Anyway, I don't feel like lynching you any soon since you've been the hero of yesterday, whether you wanted it or not ^^. I took a look at your timing for the switch and well. It was while KSC vs HF was 8 to 6, so you made it 7 to 7, without really changing anything cause the guy who achieves majority first is lynched. And while the lynch was still set on Kels, Obi also came in and put another vote on top. Anyway looking through all this stuff made me notice more of Xatalos stuff being scummy: ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ So, here, in spoilers, is the votecount with the last votes: + Show Spoiler + On December 14 2014 07:08 marvellosity wrote: Counting the votecounts KelsierSC (7): liancourt (0): GlowingBear (0): Tubesock (2): ritoky (0): froggynoddy (0): Half the Sky (0): Holyflare (6): GlowingBear, Fecalfeast (3): Oatsmaster (0): Vivax (1): Oatsmaster sicklucker (0): Trfel (1): Currently KelsierSC is set to be lynched. 51m until deadline. On December 14 2014 07:25 Xatalos wrote: b]##Unvote ##Vote KelsierSC On December 14 2014 07:39 Trfel wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Holyflare On December 14 2014 07:46 ObiWanShinobi wrote: ##vote ksc On December 14 2014 08:01 marvellosity wrote: The End of Counts KelsierSC (8): liancourt (0): GlowingBear (0): Tubesock (2): ritoky (0): froggynoddy (0): Half the Sky (0): Holyflare (7): GlowingBear, Fecalfeast (2): Oatsmaster (0): Vivax (1): Oatsmaster sicklucker (0): Trfel (1): KelsierSC was lynched! Xata disagreed with GB about HF and thus only had the option of either lynching FF, the scumread he claimed to have, or Kelsier. He did switch at 8 to 6, so assuming he's mafia he had no teammates spare to do a saving switch. Well why is he mafia? Stuff I mentioned earlier: - He townread Kels off the trap play when it wasn't so evident it was trap play at start. Kelsier happily backed up this version and I argued with him over it. Then the later part of my case which I don't remember atm but you can go look it up  New stuff: On December 14 2014 05:30 Xatalos wrote: What's the case on HF really? I wasn't impressed with anything posted against him earlier and I think he said he's now at his post limit... So it'd definitely be the optimal time for a mislynch on him (assuming, which is pretty likely, that there are scum pushing his wagon when it's gained steam so easily despite no good reason). On the other hand, Tube's recent posting has been so crazy and frantic that I can kind of see it coming more from town than scum...... Well, I don't like how he's throwing his vote pretty much anywhere it sticks, but he doesn't look like he cares much for his appearance. That's usually associated with town. I wouldn't lynch SL, HF or KSC now. Perhaps Tube is town too after all. rsoultin, is your case on Trfel basically about his inactivity? I think I'd rather lynch FF than him for reasons previously mentioned. ##Unvote ##Vote Fecalfeast I'll be phoneposting when I can until deadline. On December 14 2014 05:41 Xatalos wrote: KSC doesn't even have many votes and besides there are far better lynch candidates. On December 14 2014 05:44 Xatalos wrote: What's your read on FF? He's the biggest alternative wagon to you. On December 14 2014 06:59 Xatalos wrote: Damn I can't really focus well right now. Anyways I looked at the case briefly earlier and I think KSC explained the last point decently during N1. I'll look at it again as soon as I can. I can lynch KSC over HF/SL though if it comes down to it. On December 14 2014 07:25 Xatalos wrote: Well, I can see the appeal in that KSC case. Not sure about the ritoky point on its own since KSC explained that decently I think, but it seems like there's a larger theme of weird read changes during the game for him. It lends credibility to the idea that he's making stuff up. Forgetting several things and making a meta scumread without apparently knowing much about that particular meta. I think it's a decent lynch at least compared to some like HF/SL (and perhaps Tube too). It should also be somewhat telling of FF's alignment so it's not too bad. ##Unvote ##Vote KelsierSC So what we see is that he sets himself up to lynch FF, TRFEL's case on Kelsier happened at December 13 2014 22:06.. Xatalos ignores it claiming first he wouldn't lynch him. Later his argument becomes that there aren't many votes on Kelsier and far better lynch candidates. All while only having FF as visible scumread. He prods tubesock in what I think was an attempt to move his vote onto FF. In the next post, and this is a hammer, he states that Kels explained a part of it decently. But after the aggressive remark from rasputin, he decides -suddenly- that he could lynch Kelsier over the other dudes. When he looks at the case again, it sways him as opposed to last time. When does this happen? Roughly 30 mins before deadline, when it was 7 - 7 and it looked like Kelsier was getting lynched. Xatalos has been very passive and not really been trying to force his point of view about FF. Instead he adapted his opinion about Kels to the opinion of the guys questioning him, and then voted him when it didn't really matter. In summary, I think this is a scumswitch. | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
On December 13 2014 04:00 Xatalos wrote: Out of the current wagons, I think the KSC wagon is the worst. He's made several plays that are unlikely to come from scum (baiting reactions by making himself look bad, suggesting delaying the 27nb lynch when he's next in line himself, etc.) and his posts during N1 seemed fine. The wagon on him also looks all but inspiring (all the voters are sketchy or at best somewhat nullish players). lol | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
Out of the current wagons, I think the KSC wagon is the worst. He's made several plays that are unlikely to come from scum (baiting reactions by making himself look bad, suggesting delaying the 27nb lynch when he's next in line himself, etc.) and his posts during N1 seemed fine. The wagon on him also looks all but inspiring (all the voters are sketchy or at best somewhat nullish players). Damn I can't really focus well right now. Anyways I looked at the case briefly earlier and I think KSC explained the last point decently during N1. I'll look at it again as soon as I can. I can lynch KSC over HF/SL though if it comes down to it. Well, I can see the appeal in that KSC case. Not sure about the ritoky point on its own since KSC explained that decently I think, but it seems like there's a larger theme of weird read changes during the game for him. It lends credibility to the idea that he's making stuff up. Forgetting several things and making a meta scumread without apparently knowing much about that particular meta. I think it's a decent lynch at least compared to some like HF/SL (and perhaps Tube too). It should also be somewhat telling of FF's alignment so it's not too bad. I mean, look at this. The guy he first calls the worst wagon, is suddenly someone "he can lynch" before he even reviewed the KSC case. | ||
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Vivax
21978 Posts
On December 15 2014 00:30 Xatalos wrote: Vivax, he was a worse lynch than ritoky or Tube, not worse than HF. Besides, by the end of D2, ritoky seemed better (considering the present analysis) and Tube looked better (his frantic deadline posting). Also I only said that I'd lynch KSC over HF before reading the case fully... Which had been my stance all along. You should really put a bit more effort in your arguments. That's bullshit though, you mention arguments for Kelsier being town on multiple occasions, there is no evidence that all your arguments are based on PoE regarding Tube and ritoky. You townread him for the trap play since D1, keep that argument all throughout D2, only to throw it away when it looks like he's getting lynched. | ||
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Vivax
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Am I missing a key point somewhere? Yes. The reasons for Xata switching at EoD look over-explained when the reason could simply have been that FF wasn't going to happen and KSC was his only remaining option. | ||
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