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TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells - Page 4

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 06:08 GMT
#2076
On December 13 2014 15:06 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 12 2014 08:40 Vivax wrote:
I've looked at the dead guys filters and I think I'll just sheep onto their scumreads, namely

ritoky, FF, Oats for kita
Obi, froggy and FF for lone
I think ritoky for Koshi
Kush got killed by Marley and played horribly.

Gonna evaluate them individually.

If we have a vig he's stupid for not killing Alakaslam.



Oooooooooo

Vivax can you explain why you left damdred out of this list of dead peoples reads you were checking or is it because he opened an exploding present and wasn't a nk ?


Cause he claimed joyful child or w/e it's called and I figured mafia mostly killed him for being a named VT and not for his reads.

Tho in my latest post I also considered his reads, given that other JC claims didn't die.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 06:16 GMT
#2093
On December 13 2014 15:12 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 13 2014 15:08 Vivax wrote:
On December 13 2014 15:06 Holyflare wrote:
On December 12 2014 08:40 Vivax wrote:
I've looked at the dead guys filters and I think I'll just sheep onto their scumreads, namely

ritoky, FF, Oats for kita
Obi, froggy and FF for lone
I think ritoky for Koshi
Kush got killed by Marley and played horribly.

Gonna evaluate them individually.

If we have a vig he's stupid for not killing Alakaslam.



Oooooooooo

Vivax can you explain why you left damdred out of this list of dead peoples reads you were checking or is it because he opened an exploding present and wasn't a nk ?


Cause he claimed joyful child or w/e it's called and I figured mafia mostly killed him for being a named VT and not for his reads.

Tho in my latest post I also considered his reads, given that other JC claims didn't die.


Cool tings. Not sure I entirely agree with the froggy read though I thought he looked at least a little towny. Is that just a read you're sheeping or your own?

Undecided about obi too

There's just a lot of people not interested in solving the game at all on day 2 of the game which is a bit frustrating because I have a list of like 2 or 3 fairly good mafia reads and then quite a few might be mafia/might not bes


Well what you see there are mostly conclusions that I draw from the NK analysis, I don't really care about froggy for now and would like to see FF or GB lynched today as they both are in the focus of most of the killed guys and I also found arguments for both of them.

I'm quite pleased that Alakaslam read the points on FF and found them convincing (and actually plays the game with some seriousness), so I'll try to boost the momentum to do what the dead guys couldn't.

##Vote FecalFeast
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 06:28 GMT
#2102
On December 13 2014 15:21 batsnacks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 13 2014 15:16 Vivax wrote:
On December 13 2014 15:12 Holyflare wrote:
On December 13 2014 15:08 Vivax wrote:
On December 13 2014 15:06 Holyflare wrote:
On December 12 2014 08:40 Vivax wrote:
I've looked at the dead guys filters and I think I'll just sheep onto their scumreads, namely

ritoky, FF, Oats for kita
Obi, froggy and FF for lone
I think ritoky for Koshi
Kush got killed by Marley and played horribly.

Gonna evaluate them individually.

If we have a vig he's stupid for not killing Alakaslam.



Oooooooooo

Vivax can you explain why you left damdred out of this list of dead peoples reads you were checking or is it because he opened an exploding present and wasn't a nk ?


Cause he claimed joyful child or w/e it's called and I figured mafia mostly killed him for being a named VT and not for his reads.

Tho in my latest post I also considered his reads, given that other JC claims didn't die.


Cool tings. Not sure I entirely agree with the froggy read though I thought he looked at least a little towny. Is that just a read you're sheeping or your own?

Undecided about obi too

There's just a lot of people not interested in solving the game at all on day 2 of the game which is a bit frustrating because I have a list of like 2 or 3 fairly good mafia reads and then quite a few might be mafia/might not bes


Well what you see there are mostly conclusions that I draw from the NK analysis, I don't really care about froggy for now and would like to see FF or GB lynched today as they both are in the focus of most of the killed guys and I also found arguments for both of them.

I'm quite pleased that Alakaslam read the points on FF and found them convincing (and actually plays the game with some seriousness), so I'll try to boost the momentum to do what the dead guys couldn't.

##Vote FecalFeast


Will you reiterate what you drew from NK analysis that made you vote FF? I want to sheep you but I can't until I'm sure this makes sense.


You could also read the thingy Alakaslam quoted to sheep the read or do the NK analysis yourself, I'm not your butler you know. You have eyes and you have a brain, but you apparently don't have the motivation to look it up for yourself.
Anyway, cause I'm a nice guy and I want to win, here the bits (Koshi doesn't scumread FF however, in fact Koshi is probably the least informative since he mostly focused on lynching 27nb) :


On December 10 2014 18:21 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 10 2014 14:49 Fecalfeast wrote:
Can I get a cliffnotes on the xatalos read?

This is my post 58 so unless you all start voting me I'm gonna lurk



I could lynch this guy. First posts a large amount of mostly oneliners that aren't pertinent to finding scum, then says he's near the post limit so he's going to lurk. So anti town.

There's also this:
Show nested quote +
On December 10 2014 08:59 Fecalfeast wrote:
Also, to waste another post because I think in such fragments, I think this makes 27NB town because the other carol singers (WHO SHOULD NOT CLAIM UNLESS THEY KNOW 27NB IS LYING) can out her at any point since they know who the other masons carol singers are.

##unvote


Show nested quote +
On December 10 2014 09:10 Fecalfeast wrote:
On December 10 2014 09:06 27ninjabunnies wrote:
On December 10 2014 09:05 liancourt wrote:
where did ninja claim mason


I didn't.


On December 12 2014 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
Here are my reads after night one. I usually take until day three or four to get a good grasp of what is going on in larger games so I'm sure a bunch of these will change with more information.

Leaning Mafia:

Fecalfeast
  • LoneMeow's case regarding how he votes for bunnies, unvotes her when when he interprets her post as a roleclaim, and then ignores her for a significant period of time once she states that it wasn't a claim.
  • Only provides of a list of reads when prompted. The validity of his reads comes into question when he gives a town read to tube for researching past games, yet doesn't take this into account with his scum read on LS.
  • He makes a post by post response on Templar, without coming to a conclusion. He doesn't show any interest in getting templar lynched until he is prompted.
  • He claims that his vote on ritoky was an attempt to get an angry reaction, but there was no followup to his plan.
  • Shows very little interest in scum hunting. Admits to not reading the thread and suggests a vig shot on himself.


Oh, ok. I'm a dum dum


He dropped his scum read (which I assume was his strongest, given where his vote was) due to the "claim" but didn't reasses the situation in any way once the "claim" was explained to be a misunderstanding. Not what I would expect from a town player in that situation.

##Vote: Fecalfeast


On December 10 2014 02:45 Damdred wrote:
Heres the group I would be happy lynching into today

Froggy: One post said he was going to bed, the post had plenty of double speak in it and he hasn't returned and its been quite awhile (which isn't inherrintly scummy)

Bats: Hes probably the least hesitant that I would be willing to lynch into. Besides a couple of posts he is completely forgettable, he misrepresented peoples posts and then was forced to play and lurked since then.

FF: His posts seem to lack direction and its really difficult to even remember what all hes been doing in the thread without reading his filter.


I'm not sure that I would lynch 27nb today, she has done some scummy things i'm just a bit hesitant and the follow up to her return will decide that.

People i won't listen about:
Damdred, SL, Templars, HF, Koshi, RS, Oats, probably LS, kush

People who i love but am suspicious of
Xatalos (its just so formulaic and looks so town, he once told me that hes probably mafia when he actually looks town)
GB: Hasn't really read the thread yet has pretty unexplained reads tried to get people to view him as town becasue he had a present what? Unexplained scum read on templars I think even though hes claimed
HTS pretty unremarkable play so far but i doubt i would lynch her, even though the posts are scattered does have a somewhat direction and train of thought.
Tube: Need him to post more but he is seeming okish so far

one of my top lynches is a policy lynch basically and i know that, which makes his post even more hilarious to me.


Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 06:29 GMT
#2103
Forgot kita:

On December 12 2014 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
Here are my reads after night one. I usually take until day three or four to get a good grasp of what is going on in larger games so I'm sure a bunch of these will change with more information.

Leaning Mafia:

Fecalfeast
  • LoneMeow's case regarding how he votes for bunnies, unvotes her when when he interprets her post as a roleclaim, and then ignores her for a significant period of time once she states that it wasn't a claim.
  • Only provides of a list of reads when prompted. The validity of his reads comes into question when he gives a town read to tube for researching past games, yet doesn't take this into account with his scum read on LS.
  • He makes a post by post response on Templar, without coming to a conclusion. He doesn't show any interest in getting templar lynched until he is prompted.
  • He claims that his vote on ritoky was an attempt to get an angry reaction, but there was no followup to his plan.
  • Shows very little interest in scum hunting. Admits to not reading the thread and suggests a vig shot on himself.

Oatsmaster
  • The too scummy to be scum defense of bunnies that put him on the right side of the lynch for most of the day was pretty sketchy. He adds in a comment at the end that he isn't too bothered by the bunnies lynch, which almost makes me think that he didn't want to be seen as someone with too much knowledge.
  • When he has to move off Vivax based on the effort he was putting in, he swaps to frog without an explanation. The single question about frog's null reads comes off as an attempt to make it sound like he is interested in his scum suspect, rather than something he was going to follow up with.

ritoky
  • I feel like ritoky is picking on things that could be constructed as being scummy, but don't necessarily make a player mafia.
  • His first attack on LS is a relatively long post about him having two town reads that happen to be voting for each other. That kind of stuff happens, I don't see why it makes him scummy. He calls out the sicklucker as being a lie, but I think that comes down to semantics more than something he is maliciously doing. Attacking LS for the meta reads is okay, but doesn't seem as convincing to me as is did to him. He then drops his scum read on LS after he gives a town read on ritoky. I don't see why that should change his mind, it seems more like an excuse to move over to fecal.
  • His initial case on fecal seems to come down to fecal agreeing with ritoky on a subject matter and then giving a Null read on ritoky. This doesn't matter all that much in my view. He exaggerates the defense in passing made by fecal as giving a free pass for the day.
  • With bunnies really dominating discussion on day one, he mostly ignores her. I know he claims to struggle reading her, but there were enough things he could still comment about.
  • I know that listing both Fecal and ritoky as scum reads is a bit strange considering their interactions with each other. I haven't decided if one being scum makes the other town or if there is potentially some scum to scum interactions going on here.





NULL:

Koshi
  • Kinda putting him off for now. My biggest concern would be how focused he was on a single player.
  • From a pure setup speculation angle, I would guess that the present distribution is two town and one mafia. His post about trying to confirm townies rubbed me the wrong way as something potentially mafia would say to try to look good knowing that there may not be a third townie to claim. I'll admit this one isn't very logically sound.


ObiWanShinobi
  • Spooked by the sheer amount of buddying that he is doing. I think we're up to four times.
  • I'm not really sure what made him reconsider his push for the Xat lynch. He opposes the bunnies lynch without giving a strong reason, but says he is struggling to find an alternative. I would have thought Xat would be his alternative.


The_Templar
  • No longer amuses me.


GlowingBear
  • Seems to be struggling with time so I'll likely base my read off of day two.
  • lol not really sure what to think about a guy who says that he is displaying "a lot of mafia traits"
  • My biggest worry would be how little he did to impact the day one lynch. He claims to oppose the bunnies lynch, but doesn't make a strong case why we should move off her or a strong case why we should move to an alternative.





To be continued:
I've run out of time and need to get this post in before the deadline. I don't want to put them down as null since I may develop a town/mafia read after looking closer at their filters. If I survive the night, I'll finish up with these during day two.

Tubesock
KelsierSC
Xatalos
liancourt
batsnacks
Half the Sky
froggynoddy
Alakaslam




Leaning Town:

Not really going to spend time justifying any of these. Some of these reads are stronger than others.

Damdred
LoneMeow
LightningStrike
sicklucker
Holyflare
Vivax
rsoultin
Trfel
(lol I should probably be putting him under NULL)




Why did you sign up for this game category:

kushm4sta
  • Congrats you can get away with doing absolutely nothing on day one. Why are you wasting our time by taking up a slot in this game? Do you get a thrill out of being mildly annoying to everyone else? I think you'd make a perfect house fly.

Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 06:38 GMT
#2118
On December 13 2014 15:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
How is nk analysis even relevant?

Its straight up speculation. Look at how many other reads the dead people have.

Fecal has more posts than like 50% of the game.

Come on Vivax/hf other bad people.


This post looks so mafia to me right now.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 06:47 GMT
#2136
On December 13 2014 15:42 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 13 2014 15:38 Vivax wrote:
On December 13 2014 15:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
How is nk analysis even relevant?

Its straight up speculation. Look at how many other reads the dead people have.

Fecal has more posts than like 50% of the game.

Come on Vivax/hf other bad people.


This post looks so mafia to me right now.


Heh, don't actually agree on that one, Viva.

FF isn't the worst lynch we could do (which is why I wouldn't cry tears over it) but based off of NKs when we're not sure who or what killed who...and also assuming that there weren't any other reasons for killing them other than their scum reads...seems like a stretch. I'm willing to entertain a proper case against FF though. Even willing to look at him more closely myself, but he does come off a lot like another kush lol ><


THE CASE IS OUT. Find it in my filter, or look at what Alakaslam quoted.

Also I want to go into more detail on what Oats said there:

He completely skipped over all of the reasoning used to only argue for FF being town cause of his mere post count, he's putting zero effort in to get a read on him in any other way. It's not like he has a way of being sure about FFs alignment yet, no evidence of an opinion on FF in his filter. He just dismisses the case without caring in the slightest whether FF is actually town or mafia.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 07:28 GMT
#2159
I want to lynch Oats now. Disregard FecalFeast for now as he could simply be a townie who probably shouldn't play mafia cause he clearly doesn't enjoy wading through a lot of text.

This is all you have to sheep, I suggest you actually go back and read what he wrote D1, everything kita says is verifiable and true:

On December 12 2014 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:

Oatsmaster
  • The too scummy to be scum defense of bunnies that put him on the right side of the lynch for most of the day was pretty sketchy. He adds in a comment at the end that he isn't too bothered by the bunnies lynch, which almost makes me think that he didn't want to be seen as someone with too much knowledge.
  • When he has to move off Vivax based on the effort he was putting in, he swaps to frog without an explanation. The single question about frog's null reads comes off as an attempt to make it sound like he is interested in his scum suspect, rather than something he was going to follow up with.


And I'll put this on top:

On December 13 2014 15:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
How is nk analysis even relevant?

Its straight up speculation. Look at how many other reads the dead people have.

Fecal has more posts than like 50% of the game.

Come on Vivax/hf other bad people.


On December 13 2014 15:47 Vivax wrote:
Also I want to go into more detail on what Oats said there:

He completely skipped over all of the reasoning used to only argue for FF being town cause of his mere post count, he's putting zero effort in to get a read on him in any other way. It's not like he has a way of being sure about FFs alignment yet, no evidence of an opinion on FF in his filter. He just dismisses the case without caring in the slightest whether FF is actually town or mafia.


##Unvote
##Vote Oatsmaster


And this gave me a good laugh:

On December 12 2014 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
kushm4sta
  • Congrats you can get away with doing absolutely nothing on day one. Why are you wasting our time by taking up a slot in this game? Do you get a thrill out of being mildly annoying to everyone else? I think you'd make a perfect house fly.

Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 07:42 GMT
#2161
Wading through the ocean of text I found this.

On December 13 2014 09:13 sicklucker wrote:
Damdred died to a present tho this is like mostly confirmed because the veg would not have killed anyone who died. Kush would have died anyway. They have a bank manager or the other killer its kind of irrelevant but they definitely have one. rsoultin your post was pure fluff that I already explained you got a bad habit of this. And yes ritokys claim is validated if he kills a mafia.


Does anyone have an explanation for this statement???
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 07:58 GMT
#2166
It bugs me that he sees it as semi confirmed that Damdred got killed by a present, and then something about the vig that doesn't make sense. Only mafia knows who their KP hit, so it gave me the impression of TMI since he seems so confident about what he says.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 19:08 GMT
#2265
rsoultin:

By contrast Oats only has 3 pages, but most of his posts you can seem him keeping things on topic, pushing discussion, questioning reads and pointing out logic flaws.


You clearly didn't read what kita wrote, else you wouldn't be saying this. D1 he made a too scummy to be scum defense of bunnies, said at some point "I'm not really defending her", just pre-lynch he says "Meh I don't really mind if she dies" and who was his scumread throughout this? Froggynoddy.

As for his interactions with froggy on D1, we have a grand total of 1, one, ONE question directed to him that lacks followup and looks completely pointless: "So are you saying you have no strong reads either way".

And with that being said, your post I'm quoting displays you didn't read Oats as carefully as you claim but instead try to depict him in a favourable light for I don't know what reason.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 19:59 GMT
#2301
If the Oats lynch isn't happening I'm moving back to Fecal.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 20:09 GMT
#2319
TUBE IS TOWN
GET OFF THAT WAGON PLS

AND STOP DISCUSSING PRESENTS/AMOUNT OF NKS IN THE GAME WTF
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 20:17 GMT
#2336
Tubesock is so fucking town that anyone on his wagon should come out and beg for forgiveness for their sins.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 20:30 GMT
#2356
Does anyone have a case for FF being town? All I see are the arguments from dead guys for him being scum which seem rather strong.

If someone can convince me that dude is town, then I'll consider moving my vote to a not-tubesock wagon that isn't Fecal or Oats.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 21:15 GMT
#2444
On December 14 2014 06:09 Fecalfeast wrote:
Yeah keep in mind, if I get lynched, who used night kill analysis to scumread me. Keep in mind who is defending HF by swinging their votes from tubesack to me. I'm a proponent of the church of GlowingBear now. I do not fear dying for my god.


Let's just assume for a moment you're town. Why are you playing this game? You complain whenever there's something new to read, you don't try to find scum, and when you do it's by you being a passive prick that wants to die, saying that scum are the people pushing you and your argument for that is your alignment post-flip.

The thought that you might be town scares me.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 21:38 GMT
#2487
I'm tempted to go for that HF case, BUT.

Why is GB so stuck on HF and never on froggy when he mentions them both in one go? It just seems unnatural he would put all his efforts into HF ONLY and not at least try to discern more of froggy at the same time.
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 21:41 GMT
#2494
Unvoting Fecal for now since apparently it's his town play, but I want to see that promise fulfilled tomorrow.

Would enjoy if HF got in here and replied to the GB case before I place my vote.

So, GB. Apparently you should scumread froggy too but none of that is evident, how's that?
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 21:50 GMT
#2516
Ok, I'm kinda sold on that HF case and GB is so nuts about all of this that it's giving me townie vibes.

##Vote HF
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 22:34 GMT
#2590
Lynch HF
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21959 Posts
December 13 2014 22:41 GMT
#2597
On December 14 2014 07:35 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote:
Lynch HF

I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post.


Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really.
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