TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells - Page 4

On December 13 2014 15:06 Holyflare wrote:



Oooooooooo

Vivax can you explain why you left damdred out of this list of dead peoples reads you were checking or is it because he opened an exploding present and wasn't a nk ?

On December 13 2014 15:12 Holyflare wrote:


Cool tings. Not sure I entirely agree with the froggy read though I thought he looked at least a little towny. Is that just a read you're sheeping or your own?

Undecided about obi too

There's just a lot of people not interested in solving the game at all on day 2 of the game which is a bit frustrating because I have a list of like 2 or 3 fairly good mafia reads and then quite a few might be mafia/might not bes

On December 13 2014 15:21 batsnacks wrote:


Will you reiterate what you drew from NK analysis that made you vote FF? I want to sheep you but I can't until I'm sure this makes sense.

On December 10 2014 18:21 LoneMeow wrote:


I could lynch this guy. First posts a large amount of mostly oneliners that aren't pertinent to finding scum, then says he's near the post limit so he's going to lurk. So anti town.

There's also this:




He dropped his scum read (which I assume was his strongest, given where his vote was) due to the "claim" but didn't reasses the situation in any way once the "claim" was explained to be a misunderstanding. Not what I would expect from a town player in that situation.

##Vote: Fecalfeast

On December 10 2014 02:45 Damdred wrote:
Heres the group I would be happy lynching into today

Froggy: One post said he was going to bed, the post had plenty of double speak in it and he hasn't returned and its been quite awhile (which isn't inherrintly scummy)

Bats: Hes probably the least hesitant that I would be willing to lynch into. Besides a couple of posts he is completely forgettable, he misrepresented peoples posts and then was forced to play and lurked since then.

FF: His posts seem to lack direction and its really difficult to even remember what all hes been doing in the thread without reading his filter.

I'm not sure that I would lynch 27nb today, she has done some scummy things i'm just a bit hesitant and the follow up to her return will decide that.

People i won't listen about:
Damdred, SL, Templars, HF, Koshi, RS, Oats, probably LS, kush

People who i love but am suspicious of
Xatalos (its just so formulaic and looks so town, he once told me that hes probably mafia when he actually looks town)
GB: Hasn't really read the thread yet has pretty unexplained reads tried to get people to view him as town becasue he had a present what? Unexplained scum read on templars I think even though hes claimed
HTS pretty unremarkable play so far but i doubt i would lynch her, even though the posts are scattered does have a somewhat direction and train of thought.
Tube: Need him to post more but he is seeming okish so far

one of my top lynches is a policy lynch basically and i know that, which makes his post even more hilarious to me.

On December 12 2014 07:59 kitaman27 wrote:
Here are my reads after night one. I usually take until day three or four to get a good grasp of what is going on in larger games so I'm sure a bunch of these will change with more information.

Leaning Mafia:

Fecalfeast

• LoneMeow's case regarding how he votes for bunnies, unvotes her when when he interprets her post as a roleclaim, and then ignores her for a significant period of time once she states that it wasn't a claim.
  
• Only provides of a list of reads when prompted. The validity of his reads comes into question when he gives a town read to tube for researching past games, yet doesn't take this into account with his scum read on LS.
  
• He makes a post by post response on Templar, without coming to a conclusion. He doesn't show any interest in getting templar lynched until he is prompted.
  
• He claims that his vote on ritoky was an attempt to get an angry reaction, but there was no followup to his plan.
  
• Shows very little interest in scum hunting. Admits to not reading the thread and suggests a vig shot on himself.
  

Oatsmaster

• The too scummy to be scum defense of bunnies that put him on the right side of the lynch for most of the day was pretty sketchy. He adds in a comment at the end that he isn't too bothered by the bunnies lynch, which almost makes me think that he didn't want to be seen as someone with too much knowledge.
  
• When he has to move off Vivax based on the effort he was putting in, he swaps to frog without an explanation. The single question about frog's null reads comes off as an attempt to make it sound like he is interested in his scum suspect, rather than something he was going to follow up with.
  

ritoky

• I feel like ritoky is picking on things that could be constructed as being scummy, but don't necessarily make a player mafia.
  
• His first attack on LS is a relatively long post about him having two town reads that happen to be voting for each other. That kind of stuff happens, I don't see why it makes him scummy. He calls out the sicklucker as being a lie, but I think that comes down to semantics more than something he is maliciously doing. Attacking LS for the meta reads is okay, but doesn't seem as convincing to me as is did to him. He then drops his scum read on LS after he gives a town read on ritoky. I don't see why that should change his mind, it seems more like an excuse to move over to fecal.
  
• His initial case on fecal seems to come down to fecal agreeing with ritoky on a subject matter and then giving a Null read on ritoky. This doesn't matter all that much in my view. He exaggerates the defense in passing made by fecal as giving a free pass for the day.
  
• With bunnies really dominating discussion on day one, he mostly ignores her. I know he claims to struggle reading her, but there were enough things he could still comment about.
  
• I know that listing both Fecal and ritoky as scum reads is a bit strange considering their interactions with each other. I haven't decided if one being scum makes the other town or if there is potentially some scum to scum interactions going on here.
  

---

NULL:

Koshi

• Kinda putting him off for now. My biggest concern would be how focused he was on a single player.
  
• From a pure setup speculation angle, I would guess that the present distribution is two town and one mafia. His post about trying to confirm townies rubbed me the wrong way as something potentially mafia would say to try to look good knowing that there may not be a third townie to claim. I'll admit this one isn't very logically sound.
  

ObiWanShinobi

• Spooked by the sheer amount of buddying that he is doing. I think we're up to four times.
  
• I'm not really sure what made him reconsider his push for the Xat lynch. He opposes the bunnies lynch without giving a strong reason, but says he is struggling to find an alternative. I would have thought Xat would be his alternative.
  

The_Templar

• No longer amuses me.
  

GlowingBear

• Seems to be struggling with time so I'll likely base my read off of day two.
  
• lol not really sure what to think about a guy who says that he is displaying "a lot of mafia traits"
  
• My biggest worry would be how little he did to impact the day one lynch. He claims to oppose the bunnies lynch, but doesn't make a strong case why we should move off her or a strong case why we should move to an alternative.
  

---

To be continued:
I've run out of time and need to get this post in before the deadline. I don't want to put them down as null since I may develop a town/mafia read after looking closer at their filters. If I survive the night, I'll finish up with these during day two.

Tubesock
KelsierSC
Xatalos
liancourt
batsnacks
Half the Sky
froggynoddy
Alakaslam

---

Leaning Town:

Not really going to spend time justifying any of these. Some of these reads are stronger than others.

Damdred
LoneMeow
LightningStrike
sicklucker
Holyflare
Vivax
rsoultin
Trfel (lol I should probably be putting him under NULL)

---

Why did you sign up for this game category:

kushm4sta

• Congrats you can get away with doing absolutely nothing on day one. Why are you wasting our time by taking up a slot in this game? Do you get a thrill out of being mildly annoying to everyone else? I think you'd make a perfect house fly.
  

On December 13 2014 15:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
How is nk analysis even relevant?

Its straight up speculation. Look at how many other reads the dead people have.

Fecal has more posts than like 50% of the game.

Come on Vivax/hf other bad people.

On December 13 2014 15:42 rsoultin wrote:


Heh, don't actually agree on that one, Viva.

FF isn't the worst lynch we could do (which is why I wouldn't cry tears over it) but based off of NKs when we're not sure who or what killed who...and also assuming that there weren't any other reasons for killing them other than their scum reads...seems like a stretch. I'm willing to entertain a proper case against FF though. Even willing to look at him more closely myself, but he does come off a lot like another kush lol ><

On December 13 2014 15:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
How is nk analysis even relevant?

Its straight up speculation. Look at how many other reads the dead people have.

Fecal has more posts than like 50% of the game.

Come on Vivax/hf other bad people.

On December 13 2014 15:47 Vivax wrote:
Also I want to go into more detail on what Oats said there:

He completely skipped over all of the reasoning used to only argue for FF being town cause of his mere post count, he's putting zero effort in to get a read on him in any other way. It's not like he has a way of being sure about FFs alignment yet, no evidence of an opinion on FF in his filter. He just dismisses the case without caring in the slightest whether FF is actually town or mafia.

On December 13 2014 09:13 sicklucker wrote:
Damdred died to a present tho this is like mostly confirmed because the veg would not have killed anyone who died. Kush would have died anyway. They have a bank manager or the other killer its kind of irrelevant but they definitely have one. rsoultin your post was pure fluff that I already explained you got a bad habit of this. And yes ritokys claim is validated if he kills a mafia.

By contrast Oats only has 3 pages, but most of his posts you can seem him keeping things on topic, pushing discussion, questioning reads and pointing out logic flaws.

On December 14 2014 06:09 Fecalfeast wrote:
Yeah keep in mind, if I get lynched, who used night kill analysis to scumread me. Keep in mind who is defending HF by swinging their votes from tubesack to me. I'm a proponent of the church of GlowingBear now. I do not fear dying for my god.

On December 14 2014 07:35 Trfel wrote:

I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post.