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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 05:30 rsoultin wrote: ##unvote ##vote: KSC ^ My concession. Those on HF or Tube who don't really think they're scum, please jump on. I'm actually making an post on KelsierSC right now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
The first real thing he does in the game are these posts, which I'm sure everyone is familiar with: On December 09 2014 08:46 KelsierSC wrote: So i have noticed something with this set up. If you are scrooge just claim. On December 09 2014 08:55 KelsierSC wrote: Ah ignore my scrooge comment i misread one of the roles On December 09 2014 09:30 KelsierSC wrote: So i think fecal is scum, we played a game together as town and early game he was very try hard, essentially Kush made a set up/mechanics comment and fecal went back to the setup, worked through all the permutations and then asked Kush to explain. Super town super eager. this game i make a set up comment, then retract it and ff doesn't bat n eyelid. All he does is talk to slam about sumo. Which is pretty pointless. Like "herez an excuse nit to scumhunt" it doesn't feel towny at all This feels really weak to me, especially now that KelsierSC linked the game that he refers to. I don't understand how he can possibly find Fecalfeast the slightest bit scummy for this. It feels like he is really forcing this read from nothing, while potentially identifying a stupid Scrooge (which happened...) and appearing towny. On December 09 2014 09:12 KelsierSC wrote: i saw you play town and this feels like town, I'm happy with the read for d1 Same with his early townread on Holyflare. Even Holyflare says that it is weak, and I agree. We've already established that Holyflare is really good at playing Mafia, and that makes it really hard to identify him. So no, a meta case that early into the game isn't very good. This post again lacks substance, and feels like he is making a read for the purpose of making a read. On December 09 2014 09:51 KelsierSC wrote: Hf, bats have you played with ff much? What is his d1 like normally? This post seems to take even more force out of his meta case on Fecalfeast. Is it really a good argument, if he isn't sure himself what Fecalfeast's day 1 play is like? KelsierSC and I seem to be the only two people who read batsnacks as town for the post he made on Half the Sky. (Since then, batsnacks' play has made me much more suspicious, but that isn't the point of this post). The weird thing is, KelsierSC read batsnacks as town because he agreed with batsnacks' post. The validity of batsnacks' post has since been shown to be very questionable, but KelsierSC hasn't changed his stance. KelsierSC then spends several posts focusing on Alakaslam. Here is his explanation. On December 09 2014 10:37 KelsierSC wrote: Later, he goes back on this and says that this didn't end up working out. More words, less analysis.I'm not reading slam. But the free town passes he is getting are good info. especially people who call him semi town.. Wtf is that His scum list seems to be changing without that much explanation. He says that he would happily vote 27nb, but doesn't include her in his lynch list. And his inclusion of Vivax in the lynch list for bad reads seems strange. Bad reads don't necessarily make someone scum, it is the intent behind them. And these reads are seeming forced. Later, he comes back with a new post, and Vivax isn't mentioned in his scum reads at all. The point about his changing stance on ritoky is also interesting. He puts ritoky into his town circle, then adds him to his lynch list, saying he has done absolutely nothing. His explanation of this is that he forgot he had him in his town circle. Shouldn't his reads be the same every time, even if he forgot all of his previous reads? If he was trying hard to make real reads, they would. If his read changed due to new information, that would be good, but the only new information he provided is that a few people scumread him. "I forgot" and "others are scumreading him" are not good reasons to change a read like that, he should at least investigate the case himself. In conclusion, I would be happy to lynch KelsierSC. Moreso than Fecalfeast, anyway. Obviously it's not certain, but it seems better than anything else. Now I will take a look at GlowingBear's complete case on Holyflare. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 06:15 Vivax wrote: Let's just assume for a moment you're town. Why are you playing this game? You complain whenever there's something new to read, you don't try to find scum, and when you do it's by you being a passive prick that wants to die, saying that scum are the people pushing you and your argument for that is your alignment post-flip. The thought that you might be town scares me. Let's assume for a moment that Fecalfeast is mafia. He's playing terribly in that respect too. He's got a huge wagon on him, and he just says he doesn't want to play and that he shouldn't have signed up for the game. That's true no matter his alignment. He obviously is too busy to play this game. That doesn't make him town or mafia, that makes him inactive. There are better lynches. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm still working through your case, GlowingBear. I read slowly, and I hope you would agree that you would rather that I read it well than read it poorly. When I finish, I will share my thoughts. Thanks a bunch for typing it up and consolidating it, though. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I don't really like reading too much into people's entrances. Partly because they are really easy to pick apart, partly because I'm really bad at entering a thread myself. His post doesn't say much of anything, but it does provide good advice to people and a standard to hold him to later (which he hasn't entirely met, as many of his posts are in fact pretty useless, but it's next to impossible to play Mafia with zero wastes posts). I'll leave Holyflare as null for this point. I believe batsnacks did the same thing, picking on Half the Sky while ignoring Vivax for the same argument. It isn't inherently mafia. Though it is suspicious that he goes after 27ninjabunnies so aggressively without much reasoning to back it (to be fair it is early in the game, but still). Perhaps he is fishing for a reaction, but he never wavered at all. Being suspicious of the wasted voters seems weird. Same with his counter push on ritoky, it seems more forced and a reaction to being pressured. Still though, he obviously can't be super suspicious of everyone with a wasted vote, as that is way too many. This doesn't provide a scumread on froggynoddy for the wasted vote, so I don't think there is much contradiction there. It doesn't feel conclusive, but it does seem suspicious. The last point is pretty funny. In the end, I'm not completely sold. It's a good case and I do like it, but I think that KelsierSC seems a bit more likely to be mafia than Holyflare. I will switch vote to Holyflare if that will cause him to be lynched instead of Fecalfeast, but otherwise KelsierSC seems like the best vote for now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=122#2423 Holyflare case: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=121#2402 | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote: Lynch HF I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote: Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really. What did you think of my criticism of his post? I'd love for someone to show me why I am wrong. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote: Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really. Vivax, you're so analytical, and you've been among my top townreads all game. I posted my analysis of GlowingBear's post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/472628-tl-mafia-lxix-carol-of-the-bells?page=129#2562 If that is all that convinced you, what do you have to say about this analysis? Where am I wrong? It just seems weird that you have been providing evidence and reads for stuff all game long, and here you just say this one post convinced you, even when I asked for you to elaborate. Not sure what I'm supposed to think. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 07:47 liancourt wrote: why did truffels move his vote? Last game, my first TL Mafia game, I made two big scum calls. I was wrong on both. I suppose I've lost a good bit of self confidence at Mafia. Now I presented a case that (I feel) is strong, but isn't foolproof. And it instantly gathered tons of support. Meanwhile, several veterans and people that I trust (namely GlowingBear and Vivax) are sticking with the Holyflare lynch. That makes me worry that the Mafia are using my case to avoid a Holyflare lynch. Still though, it's really weird that Vivax hasn't provided anything of his own on GlowingBear. I am happy with either lynch. It's really hard to call. Not voting for KelsierSC doesn't mean that I don't want to see him lynched. Him being in the hospital does make me more reluctant to lynch him, though, and I am okay with giving him a day to redeem himself (same with Fecalfeast). | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Vivax, at some point I would really appreciate a response to what I mentioned earlier. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 08:03 sicklucker wrote: Some good rng there ksc was clearly drugged out of his mind and could have been either To be fair, my case was heavily, if not entirely, based on pre-hospital posts. I do hope for a speedy and complete recovery for KelsierSC. On December 14 2014 08:04 rsoultin wrote: Lolol NOW will ppl bother looking at friggin GB? He insisted we should keep the vote between FF and HF I want to see him respond to my comments on his Holyflare case. The Holyflare case clearly did not start as an attempt to avoid KelsierSC being lynched. GlowingBear posted his case before I posted mine. It might have been used that way, but it certainly didn't start that way. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 08:08 ritoky wrote: I would like everyone to post who they think I should shoot tonight and why. Unless I'm missing something, please don't do this. If the mafia know who you are planning on shooting, they can roleblock you if you choose a mafia, or let you shoot if you choose a town. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 08:31 ritoky wrote: the guy who started the wagon jumped off 4 mins before the end to try to cause shennanies.....even after he made a really good case....i am so confused by that On December 14 2014 07:54 Trfel wrote: Last game, my first TL Mafia game, I made two big scum calls. I was wrong on both. I suppose I've lost a good bit of self confidence at Mafia. Now I presented a case that (I feel) is strong, but isn't foolproof. And it instantly gathered tons of support. Meanwhile, several veterans and people that I trust (namely GlowingBear and Vivax) are sticking with the Holyflare lynch. That makes me worry that the Mafia are using my case to avoid a Holyflare lynch. Still though, it's really weird that Vivax hasn't provided anything of his own on GlowingBear. I am happy with either lynch. It's really hard to call. Not voting for KelsierSC doesn't mean that I don't want to see him lynched. Him being in the hospital does make me more reluctant to lynch him, though, and I am okay with giving him a day to redeem himself (same with Fecalfeast). | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 08:48 sicklucker wrote: Like I want to post a list of 3 people who I think mafia will kill tonight (they have 2kp) Is this a good idea? I just want to help them decide if they should come out right before the end of night and not risk dying thoughts? I don't think it's a good idea. Trust other people and let them make their own decisions. I could be wrong, though. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 14 2014 11:18 The_Templar wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=23433611 If me talking about RNG was a reliable method to finding mafia, 23433611 mod 19 (remaining players in the game) is 18, meaning it would be Trfel. Shucks, you got me. | ||
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