TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells - Page 11

On December 14 2014 06:13 Xatalos wrote:
GB: It's hard to reread stuff on my phone, but I think your case is pretty heavy on meta and assumptions. I don't think its particularly scummy to focus on main scumreads rather than some people you mentioned once in a listpost. How do you know that HF's read on Froggy changed without reason? He might have just not reasoned every change of opinion in his filter. I didn't really get your last point. Overall not great reasons to lynch him.

On December 14 2014 06:15 Vivax wrote:


Let's just assume for a moment you're town. Why are you playing this game? You complain whenever there's something new to read, you don't try to find scum, and when you do it's by you being a passive prick that wants to die, saying that scum are the people pushing you and your argument for that is your alignment post-flip.

The thought that you might be town scares me.

On December 14 2014 06:22 ritoky wrote:


i was 30 pages behind cuz of work, chillax; getting to it.

also it was trfel, not templar; you should try reading it. it is pretty good.

On December 14 2014 06:38 Vivax wrote:
I'm tempted to go for that HF case, BUT.

Why is GB so stuck on HF and never on froggy when he mentions them both in one go? It just seems unnatural he would put all his efforts into HF ONLY and not at least try to discern more of froggy at the same time.

On December 14 2014 06:44 ritoky wrote:
chill GB, 1 takes a lot longer to respond to than the other

Re GB's case on HF:

1) I think this point is okay at best, it shows an instance of HF acting contrary to what he is saying but in and of itself it is not a compelling reason to read someone scum.

2) I really dislike all of your stuff surrounding froggynoddy, mainly because the guy is a low volume poster who I have 0 read on and often forget even exists. So it is hard for me to gauge the situation when I have no fucking clue about 1 of the parties involved. More about this point in 4.

However, I completely agree with your point about the uneven criticism of 27nb and vivax, and HF giving 1 a free pass but not the other. HF defended against it earlier claiming they did completely different things, but I just feel he was characterizing similar play differently for a convenient defense.

3) Fine with this point, think it is quality.

4) Again froggynoddy, I just don't see these points. Like, read HFs post, even he seems confused about his read on Froggynoddy: "kiiiiiiiiiiinda towny/idunno". I think you're characterizing him in this instance as having a much stronger read than he actually has, and criticizing him for having that fictitious read. Don't like these points surrounding froggynoddy.

5) I wouldn't call it "discrediting you to try to survive" since he had 0 vote pressure at the time, but I understand the point and yes he is being inconsistent/contradictory.

Remove froggynoddy and I think it is an okay case. I still think the most compelling thing about HF is what I pointed out, which he is doing again this phase. He slaps his vote on an early scum read, leaves it there all phase. Then in the thread he pushes on a bunch of targets and follows through on it with 0 vote pressure. Town HF follows his pushes with vote pressure.

That said, deciding which of kels, HF, FF is the most likely to flip scum atm. It is seriously christmas for me, my top 3 scum are the top 3 lynch candidates.

On December 14 2014 06:47 liancourt wrote:


GB you can't possibly read HF.

His scum game is immaculate. Like the hearthstone game he played townie as townie can be.

The only thing that bugs me is that he has been totally underwhelming.

Nothing comes to mind when I think of HF this game. He has not been as impactful as previous games for sure and the IRL excuse that Hf's in belgium...sure watever, but today I really want this kel lynch over HF or FF.

On December 14 2014 09:09 Fecalfeast wrote:

THE PROPHET ARISES

KSC was scum HF claimed a role but not any specific one

On December 14 2014 09:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.

They're useless, but they're town useless imo.

I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see.

On December 14 2014 10:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:


See above: where is the scum motivation in leaving your vote off of both main wagons when scum is one of the wagons?

His vote could have changed the outcome. It didn't; hence, no real agenda behind his useless vote.

If Holyflare is scum, then that might change things based on the fact that he might have implicated himself...but it's still unlikely. scum!Oats can still get a lot of mileage out of some towncred even if both wagons are scum. Oats is not a target for tomorrow based on his vote.

On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon.

I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless.

It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely.

All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot.

On December 14 2014 10:34 rsoultin wrote:


Lol is this a trap of some sort? What prevents scum from being on either wagon? Though if we're looking for odd votes that changed suddenly, Vivax was pushing KSC in Day 1 and Day 2...then suddenly shifts to HF with nothing to say for himself than "GBs case convinced me".

HF turns out to be town, that would be the first spot I'd look. KSC seems like a good alt lynch to divide up town votes, but not so good when everyone jumps on board, no? By the same reasoning, Trfel's position was odd. He makes a good case against KSC, argues against GB's case enough to put KSC as the better lynch, then last minute also switches to HF on a "gut feeling". Though he was also the one asking Vivax why Vivax switched. Which is weird since neither seemed to have great reasons to do so.

On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:




what?

HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow