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Guilty Mini Mafia - Page 29

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 22:50 GMT
#2568
Isn't that just the same as no-lynching? Since Onegu should be modkilled at deadline. I just asked Sylencia to confirm that btw.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 22:52 GMT
#2570
On August 27 2014 07:51 yamato77 wrote:
LYNCH

HAPA

I GIVE YOU 100% SEAL OF CERTAINTY

HE IS NOT TOWN


Can you explain more?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 22:55 GMT
#2573
But yeah... The worst case scenario is that we mislynch today and Onegu is modkilled + flips town and we lose 2 more during the night. That would leave us with only 2 remaining town and basically a certain loss. Especially if both the Masons die, it's just hopeless. Although in that situation SK might be aiming at scum since scum would have the advantage in that situation. We'd still be in dire straits.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 22:56 GMT
#2577
On August 27 2014 07:55 turtlevine wrote:
If Onegu makes a last-minute return to thread to avoid getting modkilled, I vow to vote him on the spot and prevent him from living out this day.


Haha :D Agreed. Although if he does it at the last second it would be useless.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 22:56 GMT
#2579
On August 27 2014 07:56 KelsierSC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 07:55 Xatalos wrote:
But yeah... The worst case scenario is that we mislynch today and Onegu is modkilled + flips town and we lose 2 more during the night. That would leave us with only 2 remaining town and basically a certain loss. Especially if both the Masons die, it's just hopeless. Although in that situation SK might be aiming at scum since scum would have the advantage in that situation. We'd still be in dire straits.


we would have 3 town in that situation I believe.


5 - 3 = 2?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 22:58 GMT
#2583
Actually yeah there could be 2... But 3 seems clearly like the most likely option.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 22:59 GMT
#2585
On August 27 2014 07:57 KelsierSC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 07:56 Xatalos wrote:
On August 27 2014 07:56 KelsierSC wrote:
On August 27 2014 07:55 Xatalos wrote:
But yeah... The worst case scenario is that we mislynch today and Onegu is modkilled + flips town and we lose 2 more during the night. That would leave us with only 2 remaining town and basically a certain loss. Especially if both the Masons die, it's just hopeless. Although in that situation SK might be aiming at scum since scum would have the advantage in that situation. We'd still be in dire straits.


we would have 3 town in that situation I believe.


5 - 3 = 2?


10 of us left.

we lose 2 town to lynches/modkills

we lose 2 town to the SK and the mafia.

that gives us 6 left


Oh yeah true I miscounted how many were left atm.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:00 GMT
#2586
Since we have Masons, Jailkeeper and possibly more 2 scum would be underpowered I think.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:01 GMT
#2587
And yeah 5 anti-town with 13 players seems like too much as well.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:04 GMT
#2591
On August 27 2014 08:01 yamato77 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 07:52 Xatalos wrote:
On August 27 2014 07:51 yamato77 wrote:
LYNCH

HAPA

I GIVE YOU 100% SEAL OF CERTAINTY

HE IS NOT TOWN


Can you explain more?

His whole posting spree yesterday was a large attempt at getting discussion moved away from lynching him. He played the WIFOM game and attempted to downplay the suspicion on him as a waste of time. Yet his contributions to the scumhunting he so valiantly called for have been weak at best. He basically ignored everything that everyone has said about VA and his lynch in that time frame and just reiterated his "case".

Never believe a strong town player when they tell you they are just playing badly.


Hmm... Actually it's a valid point that it feels weird for someone like Hapa to downplay himself as town. Or to even apparently not be very interested in solving the game in the first place.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:06 GMT
#2593
On August 27 2014 08:03 KelsierSC wrote:
That is why I am reluctant to lynch Hapa, I understand that he is not playing town. A lot of people think he is the SK.

But if he does flip town we will be in a position with 6 players left with 3 town, 1 kinda confirmed town (yam)

if we lynch onegu then we are 7 players left with 4 town, 1 kinda confirmed.

I need to do more math on that but I think the second scenario is better for town.


Tbh if we mislynch today I think we lose either way (most likely) since we'd be down to around even numbers with scum+SK and scum especially would have a major advantage in that situation. I've been in that situation a lot in SC2 Mafia (the setups there generally always contain 3 Mafia + 1 SK) and I think like 95% of the time town loses.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:42 GMT
#2615
##Unvote
##Vote Hapahauli


He hasn't really cared about what's happened today and I'm pretty sure yamato is town so I think I'd be willing to risk this.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:48 GMT
#2618
I really wonder where Hapa is right now regardless of his alignment.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:55 GMT
#2621
On August 27 2014 08:44 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 08:42 Xatalos wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote Hapahauli


He hasn't really cared about what's happened today and I'm pretty sure yamato is town so I think I'd be willing to risk this.

This except for the 'willing to risk' part.
I still can't believe nobody is seeing VA's claim for exactly what it is combined with the rest of his play.

yamato what happens when/if hapa comes back and fights this?


Yeah I'm pretty torn between VA/Hapa.

VA:
- the claim is quite a bit suspect
- didn't really do anything besides claiming today

Hapa:
- didn't really do anything besides voting for VA today
- actually even urged blues to claim which is... let's say not optimal for town IMO

The thing is that for VA this kind of play could be kind of understandable as town. Whereas for Hapa it's more suspicious I think.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 26 2014 23:57 GMT
#2624
This will either be completely glorious or completely sad.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 27 2014 00:08 GMT
#2635
I looked at Dessert Mini Mafia (where I was scum with Hapahauli) and I think his D2 play here is pretty similar to that game. In that game he also just listed a couple of weak(ish) "scumreads", voted for one of them and didn't do much else during D2.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/392955-dessert-mini-mafia?user=Hapahauli&page=7

The cases also look a bit similar in the sense that they just take a couple of posts from the target's filter, call them scummy and call it a day.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 27 2014 00:12 GMT
#2640
On August 27 2014 09:09 KelsierSC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 27 2014 09:08 Xatalos wrote:
I looked at Dessert Mini Mafia (where I was scum with Hapahauli) and I think his D2 play here is pretty similar to that game. In that game he also just listed a couple of weak(ish) "scumreads", voted for one of them and didn't do much else during D2.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/392955-dessert-mini-mafia?user=Hapahauli&page=7

The cases also look a bit similar in the sense that they just take a couple of posts from the target's filter, call them scummy and call it a day.


Mafia and Sk probably play quite differently though and I think Hapa is Sk most likely.


Yeah I don't think Mafia Hapahauli would bus Robik like that. The similarity could be explained by (SK) Hapahauli just not caring who gets lynched all that much, similar to how Mafia Hapahauli wouldn't.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 27 2014 00:19 GMT
#2644
40min left.... Now we can only pray I guess.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 27 2014 00:19 GMT
#2645
For both Hapa+Onegu to flip anti-town.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 27 2014 00:20 GMT
#2646
Otherwise we're quite screwed.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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