Newbie Mini Mafia LVII

On July 30 2014 09:18 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Biggest problem for me is that the jokes and filler are permeating this entire thread. Makes filter-diving a bitch, pls be mo' srs gaiz (now I want to request a feature to delete posts in a filter, I could probably reduce most filters down to <5 posts each). And quote stuff you're responding to for meh.

Anyways, quick skim through filters:


In all other sections, yes. In TL Mafia section, double/triple/multipost away (unless it's really fking obvious you're just post-count inflating or shitposting; condense if possible).

Outside of that, I like your posts. Seeya's been more or less serious throughout with his posts, and I agree with most of his points (lurker lynch policy, check, changing reads, check, properly interpreting my first null post as null, check).

GlowingBear: Started the srs talk, but hasn't been very active past that. My experience in my second TL mafia game (fuck if I remember the number) is that moving the game out of the joke phase is an easy way for mafia to pick up extra brownie points, so I don't give any major points for that. GB, why do you peg Jenny and Seeya as your initial scum reads? Curious about that.

meatpudding: lyncherino if no good posterino, or await the unfortunate modkill/sub in.

TehPoofter: Reads as strong town to me. Not sure why we have a bandwagon on him of all people. Pls explain, DCLXVI.

JennyHell: Why is Teemu (mayyyybeee) clear in your eyes exactly? Outside of a tea made of walruses being trustworthy, all he's done is asked questions with weak followup. His filter is too wafer-thin for me to make any judgements.

#Vote lilwade
Right now, all I know is that he agrees with JennyHell, and hasn't taken a stance on anything despite a 1.5 page filter, and I quite frankly find him more scummy than TehPoofter which is a pretty bad D1 lynch, I have to say since he's been pretty active and actually contributing to town.

I'll try to post more in-depth analysis later when I have the time to be more thorough, but these are my initial thoughts.

On July 31 2014 06:27 Lord Tolkien wrote:

Yes.

Rule 1: you do NOT talk about who you think are blues.

Rule 2: blues are just town with special powers, don't treat them as anything other than VT if you got that role, because the only thing shit like lurking does is give you away to mafia, and make you seem scummier to town.

Rule 3: you do NOT talk about who you think are blues.

On July 31 2014 12:51 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I'll post stuff after I finish catching back up.

On July 31 2014 13:50 GlowingBear wrote:


I'd like you to specifically filter dive 666 and bring your read on him.

On July 30 2014 10:33 Seeyalater wrote:
Oh my bad completely skipped over him. I'll be 100% honest, he's completely fallen off my radar since he talked earlier.
Actually had to go look at his previous posts in this thread, and have realized how little he's done in the game. His first read on GB seemed townie aligned, but him dropping off afterwards and the weird comment he made at teemu have made me put him on the leaning mafia side, though not someone I'd want to push on today.

On July 31 2014 13:56 Lord Tolkien wrote:
NVM forgot I had a dom4 turn to finish lol. Must script my armies of blood-sacrificing elves and werewolves to murder the undead hordes of the Romans, and gay Greek hoplites. Also Spanish Inquisition.


Anyways:

Poofter consolidated the bandwagons from the mishmash we had earlier; approve. He's pretty fucking townie atm. And in any event, I had no idea why we had votes on him in the first place as he was pretty faking active, which basically makes him a non-vote D1. Rule #1: never lynch an active player D1, because talking is good for town anyways.

But stop talking about who the medic should save. It's not even N1 yet.

Also,

As you wish.



On lilwade:
Still feels scummy to me, but eh, I think I need to start revising my opinion of him. His last few posts are better.

And in any event, it looks like he's not a viable bandwagon, so I'm not leaving a non-vote here.


On DC and the case against him:
His filter is shorter than mine lol. Warning sign #1.

His pushes onto TehPoofter and Teemu were late and hesitant, and only after suspicion was already cast onto them. He hasn't provided any new reads or interesting tidbits besides just trying to solidify behind a bandwagon. His filter...for lack of a better word, confusing and definitely scummy, but it may just be bad town play. Urgh.

I desperately want to hear more from him (and meat) so we get this right.



There a reason we shouldnt lynch you? I'm starting to like the case on DCvsMahvel, but I still want to kill you. Youre not playing anything like you did last game, where you took a (correct) read on mafia and stuck by it through thick and thin, so I'm trying to figure out the discrepancy here.



And thank you guys for bearing with me here. I probably won't be able to post as much as I would like until ~Sunday, so probably the tail-end/second half of D2 is when I can start flexing my muscle.

On July 31 2014 14:15 meatpudding wrote:


I would say Teemu. Most people seem to agree he is some way scummy. (I haven't seen everyone vote behind it though.) I think 666 and cya are both town and I would consolidate between me and Tea.

On July 31 2014 23:08 Lord Tolkien wrote:

I think it means TehPoofter is basically confirmed. Not sure about you here.

On July 31 2014 23:32 Lord Tolkien wrote:
His play is vaguely like what it was last game, the issue is I don't think having two identically poor playstyles is...good.

He may have just been lurking and trying to keep both himself and DC alive. What with their concerted push onto you...it's confusing to read him given his past meta. If I didn't play with him last game, I would read him scum partner to DC, and both scum were spotted D1, with DC being the sacrificial lamb.

On August 01 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote:

I'ma gonna shoot you for that.

>:-(

On August 01 2014 13:51 Lord Tolkien wrote:
What with him going on and on about another mafia partner on a mafia meatpudding. <_< wat

On August 01 2014 13:54 Lord Tolkien wrote:



This is...deeply flawed analysis.

On August 01 2014 13:58 Lord Tolkien wrote:



Again, assumes 3 mafia.

To that I say,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgbkN9vb__8

On August 01 2014 15:07 meatpudding wrote:


Gw on catching him btw. You only sheeped poof's vote but I'll bang you for that. I have a feeling about my MBK... but right now I'd like to see more from GB and lilwade.

On August 01 2014 15:12 Lord Tolkien wrote:

wat

On August 01 2014 15:15 Lord Tolkien wrote:

No, it was 4-3 on meat, then I swapped to DC, then DC voted meat.

Glowing made a last minute change in voting that didn't affect the outcome.

On August 01 2014 08:09 JennyHell wrote:
I'm almost ready for the wedding.

I have something old and something borrowed. Just missing one more piece.

(totally just said this to annoy Tolkien right now)

On August 02 2014 05:24 Lord Tolkien wrote:
First,


whelp, im clearly mafia gaiz, pls lynch



In all seriousness tho:

As meat's new list actually makes some cognizant sense, and GB is still inconsistent (and my vote analysis leaves him and me as most suspicious after the flop considering DC's non-defense [and I know I'm town]), I'm leaving a tentative vote on him right now as I review some filters, later today. For pressure, atm since I really want to see him post more and clear himself if he's town; again I doubt we stumbled across TWO mafia D1.

Good news is I can start posting more actively starting tomorrow gaiz! inc town hero :D

#vote: meatpudding


The case against you GB is largely that you were fairly non-contributive to town's success D1 in finding and lynching mafia, and some of your cases and shit was fucking insane. As I noted, your last minute vote swap was significantly weaker than . Now as I noted, I still think it's unlikely that you're mafia and would draw attention to yourself so flagrantly near the end of the game (I would think mafia would've realized that DC was the lynch candidate at the time, and wouldn't be acting like they were the hammer vote), but I do need to re-read your filter again. You weren't heavy town lean in my eyes, and you definitely still aren't.



@seeya: if there's one thing I've learned from forum mafia, while understanding the position, it's by no means solid. I'll be looking at meatpudding's viability as town based on his merits, not on what i see dead people say. He's appearing more townie to me, but I would still push him as a D2 bandwagon unless someone puts together a BETTER case.

On August 02 2014 05:26 Lord Tolkien wrote:
As I noted, your last minute vote swap was significantly weaker for town-alignment than staying on meatpudding given the circumstances*

On August 02 2014 07:52 Lord Tolkien wrote:

wat

I made it a 4-3 on DC comics, since I was ON meat at the time. Went from 4-3 on meat to 4-3 on DC. wat

are you high, we just talked about this last night lol


Also I heartily disagree about blue roles and the treatment thereof. From my experience, best not to talk about them at all unless you're hard claiming it. Difference in opinion I suppose.

On August 01 2014 15:18 GlowingBear wrote:


You're wrong. Check vote counts

On July 31 2014 13:15 HaruRH wrote:

Vote Count – Day 1

Teemursu (2): Glowingbear, DCLXVI, seeyalater , meatpudding
Tehpoofter (0): Glowingbear, Jennyhell, lilwade, DCLXVI, Teemursu
meatpudding (4): Glowingbear, seeyalater, JennyHell, Teemursu, Lord Tolkien
seeyalater (0): Tehpoofter, Teemursu
lilwade (0): Tehpoofter, Lord Tolkien, JennyHell
DCLXVI (3): Tehpoofter, lilwade, JennyHell

Not voting (0): none

---

Currently, Meatpudding is set to be lynched with 4 votes.

Please contact the mods if the vote count is incorrect. Thank you!

---

Day 1 will end in (14:00 GMT (+00:00)).

I apologise if the votecount comes late, it is nearly impossible to do votecount on mobile.

On July 31 2014 13:57 Lord Tolkien wrote:
And nevermind, meat has been talking. Hmm.

Alright, for now,

#vote DCLXVI

On August 03 2014 00:28 Seeyalater wrote:
If that's so, then mind explaining to us where you are currently in the game? Lets say MP gets lynched and he's not mafia, what is your plan after that happens?

On August 03 2014 08:32 Tehpoofter wrote:






::awkward::

On August 03 2014 10:21 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Alright, time for me to get active. Free time inc.


1) I'm starting to see posts from MP that are comforting me with my assumption he's townie.

#unvote Meatpudding

Continue this trend, plox. Additionally, what are your thoughts on Banks, and give me a detailed explanation why. Why do you think he is the most espoused town exactly?

Also, where is your push onto lilwade?



I see your case on GB and cya, but not on lilwade, and to continue to say you're eyeing him. Can I hear your suspicions?

2) GB: This is bad, very bad as you very well note.




FINE LETS MAKE A HYPOTHETICAL. Meatpudding gets lynched today and flips green. Who do you think is potential scum now? LET'S REMOVE MP FROM THE EQUATION HERE.


I'll be honest, I think meatpudding is more useful town than you are atm. I think you're both (stupid) town (you mostly because I don't think mafia would be stupid enough not to closely check the votelist before claiming to have brought the hammer down on his partner) btw, but if I had to choose, I'd much rather you die than meatpudding here since meatpudding is at least considering other options and thus strikes me as more town. IF YOU'RE TOWN, CONVINCE ME.

3) Seeya: why do you think Teemu is donkey town exactly?

4) lilwade: I understand RL issues, it's what's been keeping me all week. Now then, I want to hear much more from you right now. Why do you think meatpudding is more likely to be scum, when GB has been even more unhelpful D2 than MP (who has been entertaining alternate mafia possibilities, versus MP tunnelvision)?

I also really want to hear much more from you starting now (and you should all expect the same from me).

5) Teemu: what are your thoughts on lilwade and Banks.

6) TehPoofter wants to club baby seals. confirmed canuck, canadian mole, better lynch now


I'll be on the rest of the night if you guys want to establish a rapport, but these are some major questions I want answered now.

I'll give my vote and mafia case later.

On August 03 2014 08:29 Tehpoofter wrote:

Teh Bang Teh Marry and Teh Kills

Marry - I've decided not to remarry no one is really oozing town like Jenny was (and who could replace her anyways?) so I think I'm fine alone.

Bang - , Lilwayne, Teemu

Kill - GlowingBarn, MeatPansy, SeeYa, + Show Spoiler +

On August 03 2014 10:21 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Alright, time for me to get active. Free time inc.



3) Seeya: why do you think Teemu is donkey town exactly?

On August 05 2014 06:48 Lord Tolkien wrote:

It's rather frustrating for me since I want to read him more solidly, but his paucity of posts D2 onwards makes it nearly impossible for me to say anything. Was trying to see if I could coax more posts out of him D2 for a more solid D3 read, but nope.



1) Mafia rarely kills at random. There's usually some logic behind it.

However, you should NOT let night kills influence your decisions regarding who is scum, because of aforementioned wifom. It could be for any reason from Teemu starting to look town in everyone's eyes, they thought he was blue, "let's confuse town", to let's make town think XXX is town/scum.

Again, evaluate a case on it's merits, not on unknown speculation for now.


I continue to disagree about where the vote for mafia was D1 (hence why I was looking at lilwade as probably scum D2), but I'm kinda reluctantly going to have to agree that cya is the "best" case right now, though I really do not want us to have just one bandwagon.

On August 06 2014 05:29 Lord Tolkien wrote:
cya: VT
Me: VT
lilwade: cop

On August 06 2014 06:30 Lord Tolkien wrote:

And you havent shot anyone yet?

lelelelel

Wait, are you being serious here? Because if you are, this changes EVERYTHING, everything, and means it's highly likely that the last scum is godfather, and for cya to be godfather. Which invalidates EVERYTHING. O_o

On August 06 2014 06:32 Lord Tolkien wrote:
if you're fake claiming, I'm going to fucking hate you forever.

On August 06 2014 07:11 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Everyone and their mother was pushing onto meatpudding. So...yeah no.

On August 06 2014 07:16 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Basically we should know tonight if lilwade IS ACTUALLY COP, so I see no reason to push onto him TODAY. If by some miracle he lives till LYLO, he becomes top scum candidate unless he gets a good check in (which is a 33-67% chance of happening), but until then, no.

It remains possible that cya is godfather, I'm not ruling that out. But honestly, I'm willing to risk it ATM since my gut has been telling me he's donkey town this entire game, and I have a cop check on him.

IN MY CURRENT TIER LIST OF PEOPLE TO LYNCH:

GB
Banks
Cya
lilwade (jumps to near first if he doesn't die tonight)

On August 06 2014 07:26 Lord Tolkien wrote:

1) why the fuck would they let him live when he has a 66% chance of checking someone in LYLO, and making the game that much harder for mafia.

2) who else would they shoot exactly; the only one who's "confirmed" town is cya if the check is correct, and there are 3 unconfirmed towns. IF WE LYNCH CYA and he's not mafia (which I currently believe), what then? Argh.

I suppose they'll shoot me or Banks if one of us isn't lynched tonight, but eh. It's a significantly weaker play I would think.


3) I wouldn't lynch lilwade immediately. It just puts him as prime lynch candidate. opinions *le gasp* change,

On July 31 2014 14:00 meatpudding wrote:




This quote from cya sums up how I feel on 666 so far. All this tells me is that cya is not scum if 666 is, because he would be too carful and not "accidentally" forget him.

On August 04 2014 12:59 Tehpoofter wrote:
I have to let you guys know.

The last mafia is SeeyaLater.

He will be dying tomorrow we will win. I filter dove him earlier and will explain everything completely. You're welcome for the free win.

On August 08 2014 09:32 Lord Tolkien wrote:

Hum, you're right. I missed that corollary post when I got sidetracked by GB's confusion about the D1 vote. All I remembered about Jenny was her last reads list that night.


wat. It was N1, how could she have more information D1/N1? I am confused.

Again, I hate NK analysis as it's 90% speculation, but if it floats your boat.


You are correct. I didn't see much of a reason to look at DC in my brief 1st half D1 lookthrough. Again, very limited time, and my filter D1 is wafer thin in terms of post count to reflect that. I at the time had a null read on him, and I didn't feel I had anything remarkable to say about him. Or Teemu at the time, I think.



I still don't know why that's important (like seriously)? But ok.


Why did you think I was solid town anyways? You and others were pegging me for it and I wouldn't have in your position.

In any event, the question you should be asking in LYLO is: 1) how does this make me scum, and 2) is Poofter scum?

I'm growing fairly certain Poofter is more likely scum than you for now, but I'll do my best to convince you that I'm town like I really am.

On August 06 2014 07:04 Lord Tolkien wrote:

If I have to choose between you and Banks right now, I'd vote on you. That's the issue. Who is more likely to be scum in my eyes? You.


If Banks is actually claiming vigi (if he's fakeclaiming, he's is stupid), then that opens up cya as mafia godfather, because with 2 blue roles it makes no sense otherwise. In which case the game gets harder.

Do I believe that cya is godfather? Not really no. My read on him has actually been the only one that's been consistent this entire game, and lilwade's claim corroborates it. If the possibility of godfather goes up, then cya's position as confirmed town is much weaker for me. But right now?

You're more likely scum.

And yes, I believe the cop claim for now. He'll die tonight if he's cop, because mafia won't let him live till tomorrow. He's likely not VT because he's not stupid enough to fake-claim (I HOPE), and I'm fairly certain mafia won't claim tonight; mafia would much rather claim LYLO.


The vigi claim is blowing my mind though. Like wat.

On August 08 2014 10:36 Seeyalater wrote:
Ok I have a question for you then. How are you so sure I'm the last town then? You said you were reevaluating, but what exactly led you to believe me over him?