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On May 30 2014 02:36 Amiko wrote:@HaruRH I have some additional concerns regarding your last few posts. Please respond since it'll help me read you. (1) Position on JWZ vs. Palmar Look at the parts of these two posts- Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 09:08 HaruRH wrote:
(snip)
You need to read all the points in context - I suggested for jabber to change topics, but his reply and subsequent posts were questionable or scummy. But he is not definitely scum, but more likely to be scum than others. I would give it a 30% probability he is scum, 50% shit play and 20% VT.
in fact, it is not surprising for people in this newbie game to get baited by this simple setup bait. Read the posts after this post, you should know what I mean.
Show nested quote +On May 29 2014 09:13 HaruRH wrote:On May 28 2014 22:37 Palmar wrote:
I don't think we know which setup was used. In fact, palmar seemed to have been baited. It is obvious to VT that we dont know the setup - but palmar is second guessing his own decision of not knowing the setup. A townie will not state 'I don't think', but use stronger words that indicate full understanding of the rules. Therefore, palmar is either scum or ignorant and I would go with scum. I will keep an eye out for more of his posts. It seems from these posts that you have a fairly weak read on JWZ as scum at the time of the posts (30% town, 20% mafia). You seemed to have a more certain scumread on Palmar. I'm confused why your vote stays on JWZ. Is Palmar currently your top scum? (2) Setup Comments No one in the game could know the setup at this point regardless of their alignment/role (unless they are somehow a genius and have determined the power roles). So why do you feel Palmar saying he's not sure about the setup is scummy since lack of knowledge would come from town or scum? I guess it does evidence that he didn't read the OP, but I have seen town and scum both do that (for example, one or two newbie games back a few players thought they had a cop when they had a parity cop).
Palmar's read came in less than 12 hours before the jwz lynch - nothing could be done at that point. However, I won't say palmar have a higher chance of being scum than jwz, it is just that his plays are scummy and garner a higher probability of scum from me. Pretty sure mafia knows the setup of A/B/C. It is stated on the op.
Lets rank some scumreads
1) palmar 30% scum 10% ignorance (can easily turn into scum if he is caught not being ignorant but scummy play) 60% VT
2) sqrt 20% scum ( his play is wishy washy) 80 % VT
3) mderg 20% scum ( reading off his filter makes me want to point things out, yet have nothing to point. Weird.) 80% VT
The rest have either a low scumread due to their post types (slam/sloosh) or because they presented their alignment quickly (Chrom/27)
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@haru
You didn't put people such as amiko or MZ. What is your take on them?
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After re-reading through mderg's filter, then through gooble and MZ's again, I seem to agree with mderg for his points against gooble. Jwz flipping town would mean that all 3 mafia voted for jwz - it is simply too risky to deviate from the bandwagon without risk. Just by this matter of fact, mderg have regained my trust in him. In fact, there is also no reason for the first 3 (27/me/chrom) to have a higher chance of being scum as chrom and I voted simply because we saw the case against jwz faster.
Rather, sqrt still have my suspicions. He was deviating from the beginning by switching targets instantly, from palmar, to bandwagon, then palmar again, bandwagon again then lastly fuba. I know that some people are pretty wishy washy when it comes to voting, but sqrt seems to be dodging and is not presenting any cases for now, but rather spectate the game for now.
Palmar - you still did not address my point of why did you initially strongly agree with the bandwagon, but fall off later? Stronger cases were put out against him at that point.
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On May 30 2014 08:01 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
@haru
You didn't put people such as amiko or MZ. What is your take on them?
MZ's play is indeed weird. Irrational to a certain degree. Sorry but phones dont let me multiquote so I would need to slowly quote, one by one.
Amiko is driving dicussion on different lynch targets. Could be scum ( the last person you would expect to be scum would be amiko, the discussion maker). Greater possibility of VT.
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On May 30 2014 08:07 HaruRH wrote:
Palmar - you still did not address my point of why did you initially strongly agree with the bandwagon, but fall off later? Stronger cases were put out against him at that point.
Uh cause first I thought he was mafia, then I wasn't as sure he was mafia.
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If I was mafia and wanted credit for not lynching him I wouldn't have been whipping people to stay with the lynch buddy. I have no idea where you're going with this.
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On May 30 2014 08:17 Palmar wrote:
If I was mafia and wanted credit for not lynching him I wouldn't have been whipping people to stay with the lynch buddy. I have no idea where you're going with this.
So are you saying that you think that all of the people who didn't vote on jwz is town?
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On May 30 2014 08:19 sqrtofneg1 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2014 08:17 Palmar wrote:
If I was mafia and wanted credit for not lynching him I wouldn't have been whipping people to stay with the lynch buddy. I have no idea where you're going with this. So are you saying that you think that all of the people who didn't vote on jwz is town?
No.
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On May 30 2014 08:19 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2014 08:19 sqrtofneg1 wrote:On May 30 2014 08:17 Palmar wrote:
If I was mafia and wanted credit for not lynching him I wouldn't have been whipping people to stay with the lynch buddy. I have no idea where you're going with this. So are you saying that you think that all of the people who didn't vote on jwz is town? No.
Then explain what you mean please.
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On May 30 2014 08:20 sqrtofneg1 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2014 08:19 Palmar wrote:On May 30 2014 08:19 sqrtofneg1 wrote:On May 30 2014 08:17 Palmar wrote:
If I was mafia and wanted credit for not lynching him I wouldn't have been whipping people to stay with the lynch buddy. I have no idea where you're going with this. So are you saying that you think that all of the people who didn't vote on jwz is town? No. Then explain what you mean please.
Do I have to?
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On May 30 2014 08:21 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2014 08:20 sqrtofneg1 wrote:On May 30 2014 08:19 Palmar wrote:On May 30 2014 08:19 sqrtofneg1 wrote:On May 30 2014 08:17 Palmar wrote:
If I was mafia and wanted credit for not lynching him I wouldn't have been whipping people to stay with the lynch buddy. I have no idea where you're going with this. So are you saying that you think that all of the people who didn't vote on jwz is town? No. Then explain what you mean please. Do I have to?
I'm not forcing you to.
But I don't really get what you're saying.
You call yourself town b/c you didn't stay on the jwz wagon, and you say that not everyone who went off the jwz wagon is town?
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Ah screw it. Newbie game, be nice Palmar (pro-tip, normally I'd ignore you or worse). I'll explain:
Haru's question towards me is loaded, as you can see:
On May 30 2014 08:07 HaruRH wrote:
Palmar - you still did not address my point of why did you initially strongly agree with the bandwagon, but fall off later? Stronger cases were put out against him at that point.
Unless I'm dumb, he's worried that I had too much information (as mafia), and feels like I was backtracking out of the read as to not be seen responsible for what I would know is a mislynch if I'm mafia.
He is right on the facts, I did indeed slowly become less sure about the lynch. But I think I addressed the reasons for that very thoroughly in my "too scummy to be scum" explanations.
But in the end I pointed out to him that I was active in shutting down any attempts at counterwagons during the end of the day, so if I'm mafia my plan is very strange.
what I did: semi-back out of the read - protect the lynch.
mafia option 1: stick with the read - protect the lynch (this way I'm consistent with my thought process)
mafia option 2: back out of the read - support alternative wagons (this way I distance myself from a mislynch).
I went with a route that doesn't make too much sense as mafia, as it's sort of contradicting. Now this does in no way prove I'm not mafia, but I'm just pointing out that Haru's line of questioning is unlikely to reveal anything about my alignment. In fact I feel like because of precisely the fact that his line of questioning is so misdirected, that there's a chance he's mafia, which also fits because I was having trouble adding up numbers in my previous post with reads.
Like I want him to explain what he thinks he can get out of the answer from me, because to me I don't see anything valuable coming out of it, so I think the question is asked for showmanship, not for actual investigation.
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On May 30 2014 08:22 sqrtofneg1 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2014 08:21 Palmar wrote:On May 30 2014 08:20 sqrtofneg1 wrote:On May 30 2014 08:19 Palmar wrote:On May 30 2014 08:19 sqrtofneg1 wrote:On May 30 2014 08:17 Palmar wrote:
If I was mafia and wanted credit for not lynching him I wouldn't have been whipping people to stay with the lynch buddy. I have no idea where you're going with this. So are you saying that you think that all of the people who didn't vote on jwz is town? No. Then explain what you mean please. Do I have to? I'm not forcing you to. But I don't really get what you're saying. You call yourself town b/c you didn't stay on the jwz wagon, and you say that not everyone who went off the jwz wagon is town?
I stayed on the wagon so I have no idea what you're talking about.
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Okay, thanks for the reply.
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My one town point for Haru is his bait thing. It's so dumb that it might be a town move. But I'm not gonna hang my hat on it.
And I don't really care. MZ is the lynch tomorrow.
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Okay guys, I g2g, won't be back until tomorrow.
If I die:
You need to keep an eye on palmar, he needs to do more.
I like fuba, mderg, and amiko.
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why on earth do I need to do more I'm doing tons of work.
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okay I'm here on my phone now if anyone has anything
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out of the people I didn't mention, I would put them in order of decreasing scumminess
gobble
slam
haru
fuba
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On May 30 2014 09:42 Chromatically wrote:
out of the people I didn't mention, I would put them in order of decreasing scumminess
gobble
slam
haru
fuba
What about 27B? What are your thoughts and reads?
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EPT
