EPTDetention Mafia - Page 12
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On Day 1, you say that you suspect M_Z. At this time, the case is not a slam dunk. This is your excuse for not pushing M_Z on Day 1 as an alternative for jabber. On Night 1, you become certain that M_Z is scum. This suggests that something between your post Day 1 and your post Night 1 made you feel M_Z was confirmed scum. You can lie about your reasons now, so let's look at your actual post at the time: On May 30 2014 04:55 Palmar wrote: If I die tonight. MZ is like 95% mafia. His response to me here has nothing to do with what I was saying in the post. Like it's beyond obvious he's not reading the argument at all and all he wants to do is discredit me. What I was doing: Explaining why I thought MZ was mafia What MZ claims I was doing: Trying to back out of the read. The two are mutually exclusive damnit. I was explaining my read to someone who wasn't following it in hopes of convincing them, which is literally the opposite of trying to back out of a read. Your post here actually points to actions that happened earlier on Day 1 - things you already knew when you were not convinced. So, it looks suspicious to me because you are grounding your certainty in things you should have already known. Now, you are saying that M_Z became confirmed due to his inactivity. This explanation is suspect and scummy because you don't make any reference to this basis in your earlier post. (You also add in your most recent post that it was based on jabber and rereading M_Z, but neither of those points came up in your post, either). In other words, your case against M_Z did not raise the points that you claim convinced you he was mafia | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 01:52 Palmar wrote: It isn't new, I said "I gradually became convinced over n1" But hey, fit it to your insane story all you like. On June 06 2014 00:47 Palmar wrote: gradually over n1. He already made the posts that I wanted to lynch him for, but the inaction factor doesn't have an exact time on it, it's just a feeling that he isn't really trying. by the time I said he had a 95% chance of flipping mafia I was pretty damn sure | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 00:47 Palmar wrote: gradually over n1. He already made the posts that I wanted to lynch him for, but the inaction factor doesn't have an exact time on it, it's just a feeling that he isn't really trying. by the time I said he had a 95% chance of flipping mafia I was pretty damn sure On June 06 2014 01:46 Palmar wrote: Sort of. Jabber's flip and re-reading MZ's posting also helped. I had become pretty certain when I posted that 95% post, but it was mostly based on earlier evidence. And not inactivity precisely, but rather lack of commitment to solving the game. I don't care how much people post if they post the right things. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If you want to go AFK go for it, but I don't think it'll help you. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 02:26 Palmar wrote: From now on, assume every point I make could possibly be inspired by rethinking, rereading, observation, events, jesus or various other things I don't tell you about. It's 100% super clear what my thought process was. 1. jabber did super scummy things. 2. MZ did some scummy things 3. MZ did super scummy things. he still might contribute later 4. jabber is so scummy he might not be scum 5. we need to lynch him anyway, in case he's just bad mafia 6. can only lynch 1 person today. 8. jabber dies 10. Mz is still not contributing 11. shit day coming up, better post thoughts It's so clear you even skipped 7 and 9. (I don't care much about that but it is funny since it reflects you were reordering the 100% clear thoughts) Why would I assume someone has good reasons for their actions if they don't tell me the reasons? That's basically contrary to the game. I'm certainly not going to give you that benefit. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If are town and you get lynched today, there's a chance you'd see something in mderg or fuba that we didn't. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 02:34 HaruRH wrote: I think I might be crazy, but fuba should be the scum in the pond we are looking for. His activity and the way people are killed coincides. Using the kills on d2 and 3 as proof, we have: Bunnies - n2 Bunnies was active at n2 exactly after the lynch, where she said that she was catching up. Fuba was active at that time too. Mderg only came along 10 hours after all the fiasco. It could be right to assume that fuba sent in the name when bunnies was regarded as safe by amiko (amiko was asking bunnies about reads on others and never asked others on reads of her) and me and sqrt were suspected. This is a safe kill for fuba as it only causes trouble for everyone else to lose a 'confirmed' townie. Alakaslam - n3 On n3, both palmar and mderg were pretty active, figuring out the lylo situation. As scum, it would be wise to kill off slam since he could have been blue and was quite a confirmed townie by you all. Slam did not die on n2 since killing off bunnies would have been more beneficial, to deny her time to make claims. Thus, slam the confirmed town was killed off n3 instead. I'm still convinced its fuba. If Palmar is the scum, I'll. .. cry. Ok, but why does that make fuba more likely than Palmar? Just to explain, you can change who you decide to kill / check as long as you do it a while before deadline. Mafia can send in the check at the beginning of the night or toward the end of the night (usually about an hour beforehand is nice so hosts can prepare the day post). It seems to me that either mafia-Fuba or mafia-Palmar would see bunnies and slam as relatively confirmed town. I think this would even apply to mafia-mderg. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 06 2014 02:45 Palmar wrote: No, you're requesting more than reasons. You're requesting inspiration and timeline. Like that has never been a thing in mafia anywhere. You're stuck in your confirmation bias where if I don't have an exact post MZ posted that made me think he's mafia and I responded immediately to that I must be mafia. In that post I was explaining why I thought he was mafia. Yes I gradually became more convinced over time. I probably did some rereading and even more rethinking. I also noticed his activity wasn't keeping up and his content was very lackluster. You're going to have to accept not everyone plays mafia the same way. If you cannot comprehend that I don't think exactly like you, this conversation is pointless. You don't have to play mafia the same way as me. If I see behavior that looks scummy, I want to see an explanation. If the explanation doesn't seem to fit your play at the time, I'm more comfortable disregarding it. Timeline is absolutely a thing in mafia. Haven't you seen MS Paint? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I do want to give fuba & mderg some love also. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Do you think scum is likely to not use a roleblock on d2? Especially if scum used a roleblock on d1? When there is no watcher in the game, and there is a cop, it feels pretty unlikely. I can't deny it is possible, but it just seems like a stretch to me so I'd like to hear your explanation of that. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
So, for Palmar I think we talked through your motivations and I wasn’t really convinced, but maybe if you raise some points on mderg and fuba it’ll change my mind. Okay, so let's go through fuba's points on mderg- Fuba raises the point that mderg doesn’t actively push people on d1 and really just hard-defends jabber – when Chrom raises this point, Chrom dies the next day I think there is some legitimacy to the first part of this point, though mderg does raise some concerns on M_Z by the end of the day. But, rereading Chrom’s post, I feel that he is indicating more of a town-lean on mderg so I’m not sure the second part of the point pans out. Chrom’s post:+ Show Spoiler + On May 30 2014 06:35 Chromatically wrote: mderg just feels really genuine to me. I think it would be easy for scum to randomly throw out a scumread to push when I started pressuring him, but mderg didn't back down, which is a much townier position. Scum would be more aware of how strange it looks that they're not pushing a read and would invent one to push. Genuine doesn't necessarily mean town though (I'm very wary of calling mderg town for that one post Palmar liked, I think that could easily come from scum). But, I think his posts show a townie thought process about honestly wanting to defend jabber. 2) Regarding mderg’s move to slOosh from M_Z To me, I think mderg is town not only because his vote ended the day on slOosh (though that is a good sign) but also because of the timing of his switch. For context of when mderg switches to slOosh, check this - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=38#741 – Koshi did a vote count and mderg is the next post. So, when mderg switches, the votes are like this: On May 31 2014 20:55 Koshi wrote: Meapak_Ziphh (3) - slOosh(4) – Amiko, Alakaslam, HaruRH, sqrtofneg1 Sqrtofneg1(1) - fuba Not voting (3) : – 27ninjabunnies, Meapak_Ziphh, gobbledydook What is significant to me about this vote count is the split: sloosh at 4, M_Z at 3. I feel like at this point, the votes were split such that I don’t feel mderg would feel he has to vote for a mafia teammate. I think he could have stayed on M_Z without much suspicion if he really wanted to, or could have even waited until a few more people voted to decide whether to change his mind. I just feel like the changed vote on mderg feels really inconsistent with scum play due to its timing, as well as its result. (Still going through thread) | ||
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