EPTI am wondering if you read people moving to M_Z or not -
i.e. did you consider going to M_Z and decide not to?
or did you not consider moving?
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I am wondering if you read people moving to M_Z or not - i.e. did you consider going to M_Z and decide not to? or did you not consider moving? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think the best evidence we have this game is the D2 votes. It’s certainly possible that mderg or Alakaslam are scum, but I think the odds are probably in favor voting into the people who wanted to lynch M_Z. Given that multiple people were switching from M_Z to slOosh, I think either player could have saved one of their own with relatively little exposure. So, in my opinion the pool of people to lynch out of is initially Palmar / fuba / sqrt / Haru. We can limit this a little further because I am cop. N1: slOosh N2: Haru is town and shouldn’t get lynched N3: ?????? (a secret for now) Short explanation: + Show Spoiler + N1: Sloosh was suspicious. My general attitude was that M_Z and slOosh were suspicious, with more pressure likely to go onto M_Z, so I could check slOosh and just let M_Z get lynched if slOosh was town. D2: I didn't want to claim cop because I figured doing so would probably cut off my chance to get any more checks (either die or get roleblocked). I pushed hard on slOosh and made a case that was so good I wanted to trade in my badge for a gun and vigi-shoot everyone who voted slOosh. N2: I checked Haru with thoughts similar to N1. Haru seemed very scummy to me, but not so much to other people. If he was scum, it's gg. If he isn't, I can keep questioning him him to make him look like a potential mislynch so he wouldn't get killed. I wasn't going to check M_Z since if he was town I was fine with him dying as he had been pretty useless and didn't seem likely to be a blue role. I won’t talk too much about Haru's play, but basically I keep questioning / doubting Haru even after the check because if he looks like someone I’m willing to mislynch, it means he probably won’t get night killed and it keeps a town in the game that I can confirm. - Most likely, only one other person will blue claim. In that situation, you can confirm me and that other player. - It’s also possible (though unlikely) we’ll have three blue claims – remember, scum knows which setup we are in, so scum can claim the role that is not in the game. This is a possibility only because it puts us in a lynch pool of the three blue claims rather than a direct counterclaim. In that case, as long as you are willing to trust that I am town/cop, we lynch the other two claims and win. - This is pretty much impossible, but if two people claim the same role, gg we win. Lynch one today and one tomorrow. If we go with the most likely situation (one other blue claim), it’ll come down to reads. I believe we should lynch in this order: (1) sqrt (2) Palmar (3) fuba (4) Alakaslam (5) mderg Why sqrt first? Well, two players moved from slOosh to M_Z. Haru, who is confirmed town by my check. The other player is sqrt. He was the last to swap, but at least one more person would be necessary for M_Z to die. So, it’s not as risky as it might seem for him to swap – if he’s wrong, M_Z still doesn’t die… one more person would have to swap, and that player can be a viable mislynch because they swapped onto killing town (they look even worse if slOosh is lynched). Why Palmar over fuba? Palmar’s gotten some criticism for his day 3 play. I’d suggest to you that his day 2 play is similarly awful. + Show Spoiler + I think we agree that Palmar’s d3 was more or less useless. He barely commented except some halfhearted remarks to M_Z to try to get information out of someone he claims he was basically certain was scum, yet ignores the conversation and comments through the rest of the day. But, his day 2 was awful too. Basically, he made a weak case on M_Z day 1. On day 2 he votes it and does nothing more. He doesn’t really followup with M_Z for reads. He doesn’t really encourage people to vote with him (until the very end of the day). He doesn’t really comment on the slOosh lynch in a substantial way. Basically, Palmar’s d2 is almost as bad as his d3. I think the only thing that is redeeming to Palmar is that slOosh and Palmar were the first two votes on M_Z. I just don’t think that’s enough to make me find Palmar useful, though. I certainly have suspicions on fuba too, but I have to go with my stronger reads. This game would be a lot better if people had played d3, so I am making do with what I have. If one of these players is killed or a confirmed town (as the only other blue claim), omit them from the list and continue. We probably lose if Alakaslam/mderg is mafia, but recognize that we probably would have lost anyway on d2 if either had moved their vote to M_Z. I think there are fair points for them, anyway- Mderg’s vote swap onto slOosh was written in such a way that makes it look really suspicious if he moves back to M_Z, which I think is a good reason to bank on the likelihood that he is town. Slam could be mafia, but he was semi active around the vote swap to M_Z so I am willing to put him lower on the list. In addition, he was the only one to discuss the defense I mentioned for M_Z which to me is a fair reason to give him townpoints. In sum, I feel lynching sqrt->Palmar gives us the best chance to win. If sqrt/Palmar claims blue and becomes confirmed town, Palmar is the remaining lynch. I can’t guarantee you anything, but I think this is the best route to take. Subject to modification from a check tonight :3 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
If it wasn't for the nights (If it wasn't for the nights I think that I could take it) if it wasn't for the nights (If it wasn't for the nights I think that I could make it) Even I could see a light if it wasn't for the nights (Even I could see a light I think that I could make it) Guess my future would look bright if it wasn't for the nights (If it wasn't for the nights I think that I could take it)  | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
 I was roleblocked. Claim up dudes. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I like Palmar into fuba assuming no counterclaims | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I felt the only suspicious thing he did was that he agrees with me a lot. But, his play is pretty good overall - I think he's a fairly reliable town pick, and it's tough for me to believe that scum would not use their roleblock on n2 knowing there is a cop in the game. Maaaan, I am disappointed there's no watcher, though. I really thought there was. x.x | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I felt sure scum would kill someone who voted for slOosh, and since I had been raising points on Haru I figured he would be a good target to mislynch (so wouldn't be killed) Maaaaan I died N2 things would be crazy :s | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Anyway sqrt, you and I should take a look at mderg too, I think we're in pretty good shape though. (Haru you too) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
##Vote: Palmar | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
1) Palmar's vote on ninjabunnies means nothing Mafia make cases they don't intend to push, and mafia talk to each other. Even if that were not true, I don't think Palmar gets any credit for this given that he didn't actually push or do anything with that case, anyway. Take a look at ninjabunnies' reaction - she's the one being "attacked" and she doesn't care because the case is so obviously meaningless http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=9#175 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/451317-detention-mafia?page=9#177 (2) Palmar hasn't actually bussed his team Palmar may have argued with gobble and said he would support a slOosh lynch. However, those words are not consistent with his action. On day 2, Palmar resisted a slOosh lynch in favor of M_Z. Further, look at his discussion that day. Even if Palmar thought M_Z was a better lynch, he doesn't weigh in on slOosh except to say that he would vote for him. He doesn't actually vote for him, doesn't really explain why M_Z is a better lynch. Although he says his lynch on M_Z is a slam dunk (despite it being weak) he doesn't even attempt to push his case. When he tries to convince people to move to M_Z, he doesn't discuss the merits (the "slam dunk") part at all, and only goes with the WIFOM "too easy" argument. Further, after telling people to vote for their top scumread on day 1, he tells people not to vote for the "too easy" lynch on day 2. To me, this all looks like someone who is eager to get votes off a scum partner. If Palmar was town and thought slOosh would be mafia, his day 2 should have spent trying to get reads to distinguish between the players and figure out which was more scummy. He should have at least weighed in on the slOosh case and provided some explanation. If Palmar actually thought the M_Z case was better, why was he so inactive day 2? Why didn't he try to get anyone to join the losing wagon he was so sure about? Why didn't he talk about the merits of slOosh at all? He doesn't even say anything like "If M_Z does flip town, slOosh dies next." He doesn't talk with anyone who begins to townread slOosh to try to convince him otherwise. Palmar may have said he doubted slOosh, but his play reflects a strong desire not to lynch slOosh. (3) Palmar defending fuba doesn't mean anything to me First off, Palmar's point here misreads the situation. On June 05 2014 18:50 Palmar wrote: I think fuba is town, I don't care if his play is weird. This sloosh lynch is going too easily. We should do MZ. If I'm mafia, why am I defending fuba, who is (at the time and still is) the most likely person for town to get behind lynching. It doesn't make any sense. [/Quote] At the time we were talking, the wagons were M_Z and slOosh. Fuba was not the most likely person for town to get behind lynching. Second, this isn't really defending fuba at all. It's just admitting someone's play is weird and still calling them town. If anything, it leaves the door open for Palmar to try to mislynch fuba later (because fuba's play is weird). (4) lol On June 05 2014 18:50 Palmar wrote: Regarding lazy on MZ lynch day I don't see how this has anything to do with my alignment. Hell, if I am mafia I would like to think I'd actually have continued playing on that day, mostly because I'd have known this was a mislynch and I needed some continuation strategy. What I did instead was to fuck off and leave no strategy for myself as mafia. So please, heads out of asses, I'm not the mafia we're looking for. I actually expected scum-Palmar to make this point. Even if it wasn't a terrible point (and it is) it doesn't actually matter because mderg and fuba were lazy too. It also doesn't explain your inactive play on d2, where you should have been quite active since two people you suspected were on the chopping block. More in a bit :3 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) They are almost certainly going to shoot someone who voted for slOosh over M_Z as these people are most towny (2) Slam is unlikely to get a medic save, whereas mderg and Amiko have a fair chance at being medic saved or WIFOM saved. And on the off chance Amiko is medic, he probably saves mderg. (3) Slam is a good kill because most people would expect him to get cop checked since he is tough to read and most people aren't calling him town outright. Palmar actually has more incentive to shoot Slam precisely because he called most people (besides Slam) town. By shooting someone he considers a suspect, Palmar must now "reevaluate" his reads because his suspect is dead. This gives Palmar some justification for changing his reads to whatever suits the situation - he doesn't know who he has to call scum yet, it depends on the blue claims. Now, he's in a position where he can seem to read anyone he has to as scum. (Btw sqrt, this is sort of like how scum-Eden killed town-Yellow in last game, even though he had been pushing to lynch Yellow the entire game. There were other reasons too, but I think that's one) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Mderg didn't just say he was willing to vote for slOosh, he actually did vote for slOosh (unlike Palmar). Mderg also wrote a post basically saying slOosh is the better lynch. This is important because it makes it look much worse for mderg if he switches back to slOosh. I'll also mention that I think it's more likely I would be roleblocked or killed D1 since I was playing pretty towny, yet I wasn't. I think townreading Palmar may have helped with that  | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
You should have been talking about both M_Z and slOosh since you claim you thought both were scum. You should have been questioning these players to decide which was the better lynch. Explain how you think your case on M_Z was a slam dunk. Explain why you didn't push your "slam dunk" case. Explain why you were not upset the "slam dunk" case was not getting traction. Explain why when you started asking people to move to M_Z, you didn't talk about the great case you had. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On June 05 2014 23:20 Palmar wrote: Amiko you're wrong. But you can kill me if you promise to agree to a written consent that you're just lynching me because my lynch list after the policy lynch on jabber went: 1. town 2. mafia 3. mafia instead of you who with the benefit of a cop check actually had mafia at no 1. Even if M_Z was lynched, you have a fair path to mislynch town the next day. You can come into the next day saying that although you doubted the other players, the late swaps onto M_Z are really suspicious and you'd rather lynch sqrt/haru. You can also try to work with my comments on Haru since I've shown suspicion of him. Basically, it doesn't matter to me who you want to lynch "tomorrow" because people can change their mind tomorrow. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) you are the scummiest of the three (2) mderg is the least scummy of the three, so it doesn't matter to me a whole lot whether you or fuba dies first. I'd rather kill you first though, since I think if we finish the game tonight probably I don't end the game dead :3 There is also the small possibility that if we leave you alive until tomorrow you will bamboozle Haru into voting for mderg for no good reason. On May 29 2014 09:07 Palmar wrote: I've seen some shit man, you wouldn't even believe. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Whether fuba or Palmar is more likely to be scum is only relevant if you are willing to vote off mderg as scum. I'm not and I don't see any adequate grounds to change my mind so that's what I need to see from Palmar/fuba before even considering moving my vote. | ||
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