TL 'Order' LXVI Mafia - Page 5

you are CR. you are doing exactly that. you should die for this post alone.

also, the white knighting thing doesnt apply. i thought it did but i dont have the word to describe what you did in regards to yesterday's lynch. someone else hit a nail on the head when you pretended to care about the 3 townies getting lynched after doing nothing, though.

Looks like we have a bit of a misunderstanding here. Ritoky asked me that if he hypothetically flipped town, what information can I gain from it. My answer was that his flip gave us some information, which is pretty much a given since everyone's flip gives us information. That was the best answer I could give because he asked me this on the spot and I haven't really considered this too much. Let me make it clear that I did not suggest at all that I want to lynch ritoky for information

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 21 2014 06:42 GMT

#5211

On June 21 2014 15:41 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
i dont believe a word coming out of your mouth.

die pls.

Ok seriously? Go through my filter and look through all my interaction with the ritoky case. I have no idea how you come up with the conclusion that I just want to lynch him for information.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 21 2014 06:47 GMT

#5214

On June 21 2014 15:45 batsnacks wrote:

Show nested quote +

It DOES matter because he told us he had a red check on her. Usually when you say you have a red check on someone you vote them?

I think it makes sense. Both a mafia or a town fakeclaiming cop may forget to place the vote, especially ritoky.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 21 2014 07:18 GMT

#5219

On June 21 2014 16:10 ExO_ wrote:
Been at a party, and I'm catching up. Skimming through it looks like ritoky is saying he's going to flip VT. That's vanilla town right? Am I missing something or does that make absolutely no sense, why the fake claim?

Also has anybody stepped up and claimed to have the role that Ritoky was fake claiming?

Chrom is the miller, which proved ritoky's claim false. Ritoky rescinded and claimed VT. Nobody has claimed cop yet, and unless he knows ritoky is town or someone else is mafia, there isn't a good reason to come out.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 21 2014 07:19 GMT

#5220

Also, I'm looking through ritoky's old games and finding the two times where he fakeclaimed against 27nb. Golden Sun is one of them, I can't find the other. Anyone know of it?

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 21 2014 10:24 GMT

#5234

Okay, I read through ritoky and 27nb's filter from Golden Sun.

Ritoky is not mafia. 27nb is.

If you want to read through the filter yourself, go ahead, if not, I'll give you the relevant key points.

In Golden Sun, Ritoky faked a claim against 27nb. He did it when 27nb wasn't around, and opened it off by discussing his claim with other people. In this game, Ritoky redclaimed against 27nb when 27nb wasn't on yet, and opened it off by discussing with Chrom.

In Golden Sun, Ritoky did not really put much consideration into the option that he might get counterclaimed. In this game, Ritoky got screwed over when Chrom turned out to be miller.

In Golden Sun, 27nb was not one of Ritoky's scumreads, but then he chose 27nb out of everyone to do the fakeclaim on. He didn't do the fakeclaim on someone he had as scum. In this game, 27nb was not one of Ritoky's scumreads, but then he just decided to fakeclaim on 27nb out of everyone.

Ritoky basically just did the exact same sequence for the claim. This is exactly what he does as town on the exact same person, for the third time. He approached it the exact same way, and the only difference really is that he got counterclaimed this time.

Does this mean that Ritoky is town? Not 100%, but it's likely, due to him performing his town strategy. He could also be faking it, but if that were the case, he would have probably said at some point that he's done this kind of thing before. He didn't say anything about doing this twice in previous games until I asked him specifically.

Now let's look at 27nb.

I would like to start off with this quote from Golden Sun, and a quote from this game

On May 27 2014 05:54 27ninjabunnies wrote:

Show nested quote +

Well you were freaking wrong... Like seriously...

On June 21 2014 14:13 27ninjabunnies wrote:

Show nested quote +

Nope.

Been town in both.

I would also like to reiterate that ritoky has fakeclaimed against 27nb in previous games as town twice.

From reading 27nb's filter, it reads as if this is the first time 27nb has ever been fakeclaimed against. 27nb is fully aware that ritoky does this kind of thing as town and is used to it by now, so why is she responding this way?

If 27nb thinks ritoky is town, she will allude to previous games and mention that ritoky fakeclaims as town and is terrible at it. If 27nb thinks ritoky is mafia, she might look for subtle differences between this game and what she's used to.

But instead, we get responses like this:

On June 21 2014 14:54 27ninjabunnies wrote:

Show nested quote +

No, we are voting ritoky cause he fake claimed a red on a town, greened someone who claimed miller, and then when he realized it was going to shit, he rescinded and claimed VT. He will be a question mark from here on out unless a cop checked him, but even then he could be GF, so i think it's in town's best interest to get rid of him.

27nb is going strongly on Ritoky, but her reasonings are not that great. A lot of other people who voted Ritoky pointed to things that separate a town fakeclaiming to a mafia fakeclaiming. Tica's case is a good example. Even after everything, she concludes that Ritoky is just a question mark. Why does 27nb want to lynch Ritoky for being a question mark read, and even if cop checks him clean? That doesn't make any sense. I think I understand what OWS was talking about when he mentioned white-knighting. This seems to me like town is starting to think Ritoky might not be mafia, so the response from 27nb is to keep the lynch on Ritoky, regardless of his role or cop check. This is a really mafia thing to do, especially this close to mylo.

I'm gonna have to consider this a bit more in the morning, but I can't imagine 27nb's response to ritoky's fakeclaim being like this if she's well aware that ritoky does this kind of thing. She's being quite defensive and is pushing really hard for this lynch despite not having any reads on Ritoky's alignment. What really changed between this game and the previous ones? It makes sense if 27nb is mafia this time around.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 21 2014 10:34 GMT

#5235

##unvote
##vote: 27ninjabunnies

Going to bed now. Hopefully I'll be here tomorrow before the deadline. Please reconsider the case on ritoky.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 23 2014 06:11 GMT

#5496

Finally back, catching up

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 23 2014 08:24 GMT

#5531

Has everyone claimed already? We should also claim if we've been notified of an action performed on us.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 23 2014 08:48 GMT

#5533

I was under the impression that we were mass claiming?

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 23 2014 09:49 GMT

#5538

On June 23 2014 18:09 ObiWanShinobi wrote:

Show nested quote +

basically meaning youre trying to look for the jailkeeper, because youre mafia.

Fair enough, makes sense for jk targets to not claim since we're not claiming jk. I was thinking more of verifiying claims when they come.

Chairman Ray

United States11903 Posts

June 24 2014 02:20 GMT

#5631

Mafia team:

TheKingoftheCats
kushm4sta
strongandbig
27ninjabunnies
Holyflare
VayneAuthority

strongandbig - This is on top of the other cases on SnB that I have made. Today SnB made his first real case, and it was on Chrom:

On June 23 2014 23:45 strongandbig wrote:
Ok suppose chrom is town tracker and sinani is scum - the only way sinani guesses correctly who chrom visited is by random chance. He knows chrom was tracker so he would visit someone, but there was a very small chance he guesses correctly given that there's more than ten players still left. I'm comfortable saying sinani is actually tracker.

Then for chrom to have visited rainbows, he either would have to be actual tracker, or sergeant using his KP or roleblock.

The thing is, if chrome's scum why would be claim miller to the ritocky check? He would know that ritocky is fakeclaiming but why give up the green check? Answer: he would do this if ninja bunnies was also scum. He would have to do it, otherwise we lynch bunnies, get a red result, then ritocky reveals the fakeclaim and chrom doesn't even get the green check.

This makes way more sense as a justification for a fakeclaim than what slam did btw. In a game with a known number of blue roles, there's literally no reason for slam to fakeclaim when he did.

So we have a 50-50 chance of hitting mafia between slam and chrom, and I think there was way more scum motivation for chrom's fakeclaim than for slam's.

##vote: chromatically

The voting does not make sense with this read. SnB believes that Chrom is mafia because he fakeclaimed to save 27nb. By this logic, SnB should vote on 27nb instead, because Chrom being mafia is dependent on 27nb being mafia, and 27nb can be mafia without Chrom being mafia. Even if both 27nb and Chrom are mafia, 27nb would be what a town would naturally vote, since there's already a wagon on her and nothing on Chrom.

I think this is a soft bus on a teammate. SnB is essentially giving a mafia associative read on two people, and choosing to start a brand new wagon on the one that makes less sense.

27ninjabunnies - My last case on 27nb still stands. Just to reiterate it, I think 27nb is mafia because of the way she reacted to the ritoky fakeclaim. If ritoky fakeclaimed on me twice in previous games as VT, and he did it again this game, then I would use those past experiences as a basis for my reads on ritoky. However if I was mafia and I want to get ritoky lynched, then I would only reveal past experiences if it were convenient. This seems like the case here.

I also find it fishy how she gave Holyflare a towncard without giving a case. She just said:

Holyflare has been trying to figure this out and not solely complaining on how this game has gone to shit.

I think that town can also give someone a townread from just an impression, but this case it is different. In this game, it is clear that mafia's main strategy is to get inactive people mislynched. Look at every lynch that's happened so far. Mafia are probably still in the mindset that pushing on inactives is the thing to do. At this stage of the game, it's probably mylo, and 27nb is already trying to figure out possible teams of 5. I find it very suspicious that she's completely disregarding holyflare in her mafia arrangements or individual reads:

On June 24 2014 05:33 27ninjabunnies wrote:

Show nested quote +

Oh I am definitely interested in scum.
And if you are town, you need to try and convince me and the other town why the other five are scum and which deserves a better lynch.

VA, Batsnacks, OWS, CR, and SNB would be the mafia outside of you if you believe all the claims, and then me and HF as town.

But if you have a better team of 5, please tell me

Holyflare - We've already discussed and we know that there is at least one super active player among the mafia team. Otherwise, why would mafia be shooting less active people during the night, and voting on inactive players during the day? That would be suicide. Marv flipped town, and round is pretty sure to be town now. That's why I'm investigating Holyflare.

Firstly, Holyflare could be mafia because of the association with 27nb. I don't think that when it's mylo, mafia will try to pocket unconfirmed town.

Secondly, mafia have been very good at making sure town lynches between inactive towns every day. Holyflare has had a great hand directing this, except for the first day. Makes sense because Holyflare wasn't here the first day because he had to study for exams. Looking at the activity of the other 5 people on my mafia list, it makes perfect sense why mafia was not able to save themselves on the first day.

Lastly, it also explains kushm4sta, and I have to credit marv for this read:

On June 16 2014 04:59 marvellosity wrote:
holy you are so fucking scummy with your tedious fucking tunnel.

On June 16 2014 06:16 marvellosity wrote:
then if kush flips scum we lynch holy because he always busses

On June 17 2014 04:59 Koshi wrote:
I shot Kush. Not many people scumreading him though. Dnu. I went Kush --> Gumshoe --> Kush

life sucks.

On June 17 2014 05:18 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Koshi the Whie Malreaux (Vigilante) has been slain!
kushm4sta the ?????? has been slain!

VayneAuthority - This read I'm not too sure on because there's so little to work off of. I checked everyone else and they are unlikely to be mafia associated with this team, but VA might be. The thing that sticks out with VA is that he finally became active today, but all his posts so far have been about numbers and mechanics, finally ending with a post to lynch me because I'm less active. It might be mylo right now, and suddenly everyone who was inactive before has become active. VA is still trying to push for lynching inactives, even though that's the exact strategy that mafia has pushed all game. Both events make perfect sense. In the group that is left, mafia can no longer sit back because there are no more ketomai's to lynch, so they have to be active. VA is suggesting to lynch me, showing that mafia still have the mindset to lynching inactives.

tl;dr
This mafia team explains why:
- Mafia couldn't get a mislynch on day 1
- Mafia have been great at mislynching into inactive towns every other day
- Why kushm4sta was janitored
- Why everyone is so active now that it is mylo
- Associations between all these players

##Vote: 27ninjabunnies