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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
HI SAMZYN! | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
Serious conversation going on in here, I'm still catching up. From what I gathered is that Yell0w seems to be a suspicious character, he then cleared his name and is now back on the scum list? | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
My suspicion of Epishade and bunnies still stands though - They both seem overly aggressive/defensive, which may actually be a deliberate ploy to make each other both look like townies. As you can see sqrt has already cleared them form his list, and Yell0w too. I'd actually like some clarification on this please: On April 29 2014 12:18 Yell0w wrote: Well I am glad this issue got resolved rather peacefully, I now unfortunately have to sleep, but I will see you all tomorrow. Also I'm pretty convinced bunnies is town now, probably epishade too, the rest I don't know. | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
On April 30 2014 02:13 Amiko wrote: @yell0w and @dravernor if you are still in thread would you put a few comments on my points regarding Eden and Yell0w above? I won't be here as much this afternoon so would like to get some back and forth while I can. Hmm, I'm still not sure about Yell0w, he really doesn't seem too suspicious to me after the initial frenzy around his nonchalant post about being mafia, but I am not ruling him out, just watching carefully. He did contradict himself though, as bunnies pointed out. Also, you make a very good case about Eden - he did throw around a few votes. It definitely didn't go unnoticed that he voted dfs in the same post he said we should give the Euros a chance to wake up before accusing. I'm going to filter Eden's posts when I have a bit more time and try to figure this out. It turns out that I was still too sleepy to read the posts made before I woke up, so I am rereading through to make sure I understood things properly. | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
On April 30 2014 02:39 Yell0w wrote: And about the whole "why do I think bunnies is town" situation, it's just because Occam's razor, she might be mafia, and made a good play to make us think she's town, it's a possibility, but it's unlikely. But there is a red flag next to her name in my head. And I was never really suspicious of her, I kind of implied she might be mafia, it was mostly just to see her reaction to that, she pretty much just ignored it so I don't think I got anything from that, but overall I believe her, for now. Mostly because she kept pushing even though nobody seemed to really agree with her, it took a little bit before she unvoted me. And about Epishade, I think it's just because he was the first to defend me, which would make no sense as a mafia play, why wouldn't he just jump on the BW of an easy lynch? The possibility raised by dravernor that they're both mafia and made this plot so both of them would look town is, I think, unlikely, because, again, Occam's razor. But I'm not sure on either of them, it's just the most likely scenario is that they're both town, by a pretty wide margin, I think. And about Eden, I was asked, though I was planning on talking about it a little bit anyways, he was actually the person I thought was the most suspicious last night, I just don't think his behavior made sense. I didn't have time to analyse it fully though and I will probably talk about it some more, but I am glad someone brought it up. Okay I had to google Occam's razor for that to make any sense to me. Anyway, I just wanted to clear up that while it is unlikely that Epishade and bunnies are scum together on the basis that it is the first day and it seems unlikely that such an elaborate scheme was thought up and executed so quickly, it would indeed be clever and confusing play. I think it is more likely that it is one or the other, and my vote does swing more to Epishade because of his defensiveness early on. On another note, I really don't see anything wrong with assuming everyone to be scum until cleared as town. I guess I am perhaps brought up to see things differently, and possibly being from a third world country where everyone is seen as a potentially dangerous stranger doesn't help that viewpoint. Either way, I don't think it is a very strong reason to suspect someone. At least in my opinion. This being my first game I might be wrong, I don't know. | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
On April 30 2014 03:28 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Anyone still active? Anyone willing to give reads? I want to know what others think. I'm rereading the ENTIRE thread because I have been half asleep reading/at work reading all day. So will add some real input once I am done with that, because I think I might have misread some posts. | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
On April 30 2014 03:37 dravernor wrote: I'm rereading the ENTIRE thread because I have been half asleep reading/at work reading all day. So will add some real input once I am done with that, because I think I might have misread some posts. Actually you know what, I am too tired to post my thoughts right now. I'll end up confusing myself even more. Goodnight folks | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
First off: @Amiko I think maybe my problem is that I am an easily persuaded person. If I think someone looks scummy, filter them, read other arguments against them, I can easily be convinced. When that person makes a good post in their own defense, I go back, read their filter and try to see it from their point of view. I then become uncertain. Hence getting back on the fence quite often. When I said everyone/no-one looks scummy, I meant that no-one was doing anything OBVIOUSLY scummy at the time but so early on in the game it is hard to get a read on people, and there were very small things like word choices here and there and phrasing that could be interpreted as scummy by almost every player. Which left that sort of conundrum of an 'everybody/nobody'. As for the overly aggressive/defensive quote, it was more that Epishade and Yell0w were very defensive, and bunnies was very aggressive. This too was early on in the game and before I got around to understanding how bunnies was just trying to put on pressure to get reactions and get the conversation flowing some more. Now I definitely appreciate that pressure as it has revealed a lot more about the players in question and given the rest of us a chance to look at them more in depth. Thus my read on bunnies has gone from a possible scum play to probably the most town. She really seems the most proactive in hunting right now. This however does backtrack on my initial possible theory of a clever Epishade/bunnies diversion. I had pretty much discarded this theory anyway in favour of only one of them being scum, and I am still swinging towards Epishade. On April 29 2014 12:47 Epishade wrote: I thought that your attacks on him were spot on, if not for the fact that what he made at first was in jest. I was thinking others would disregard this fact and bandwagon onto the first scummy looking person to lynch day1. Although this new post from Yellow I'll admit is kind of weird. This post is probably what set me off most. He then edited it to say *'would have been spot on'. Was his initial post his thought flow? The edit came two minutes after, which seems to me to be a short enough space of time for him to correct a genuine grammar mistake, rather than him reflecting on his wording. This post happens just before he starts defending Yell0w, which then of course raises the possibility that instead of an Epishade/bunnies mafia we could possibly be having an Epishade/Yell0w mafia - as a few of you have already pointed out, most notably in Eden's post: On April 30 2014 06:03 Eden1892 wrote: - Yell0w is scum. - Epishade still feels like he could be Yell0w's partner, but he's active and I think I read too much into his posts last night and saw something that wasn't actually there. The only major mark I have against him is that he's remaining noncommittal about Yell0w. It's weird that he says he's "not against the lynch yet" wrt Yell0w, but he was already actively defending him against the lynch last night. If Yell0w is town (and I don't think he is, but for sake of argument), then I'll move Epishade to my town pile. If Yell0w is scum then I can't ignore my intuition telling me "kill this guy." As Amiko said, I am quite a non-committal person and I know myself well enough to know that I am easily persuaded by good arguments. I'm well aware it is a flaw for this type of game, so I am going to do my best to stick to my convictions from here on in until the suspect player can prove themselves innocent. My thoughts on Eden - His initial willingness to vote random people for the smallest of reasons was what made me raise an eyebrow, especially as he voted for dfs in the same post he said to give the Euros a chance to post. This made no sense to me. It seemed as though he was willing to cast his vote in any direction for no apparent reason. I have since learned from Amiko that it is a way of getting people to talk about it and possibly force some conversation and defensiveness out of the person targeted. It still struck me as strange though. I am still on the fence on Eden, I think I need to reread his filter, and I will perhaps double post with my thoughts. I will just say that he provided a strong case against Yell0w in my opinion. Prior to that I had been very obviously on the fence about Yell0w. Which brings me to Yell0w. I don't mean to BW here, but my suspicions have since been raised. At first I thought it was pretty unfair that he was being targeted for a joke, but his comments afterwards made me wonder what the hell he was up to. He clearly didn't respond well to bunnies' pressure which made him a prime suspect (and lead to my interest in Epishade). I then thought perhaps I was reading too much into him and went back to my little fence to watch some more when Eden produced that case study that pushed me a little. Whilst I am still not 100% convinced that Yell0w is scum, he is going to remain high up on my watch list. I guess I am leaning more towards Epishade being scum and if I am right then Yell0w will be the next on my list, but until then I am going to reserve my opinion until I have a little more evidence for Yell0w. sqrt I really don't understand. He has been posting a lot, and most of them are short posts asking for information on other players. I'm not sure what to make of this at the moment, it could either be extremely town or extremely mafia. It is town in that he is pushing for conversation and wanting input from others (which is a good thing), but I think it could also be pro mafia strategy to avoid giving out too much information himself - the more he asks other people for info and their reads the less he has to talk about his own. I don't like this much. I also get the feeling he is very abrupt. He doesn't beat around the bush much, but when he does he is quite hazy on his views unless pushed to expand. Even then they are fairly short explanations and not really an explanation of his thought process. I actually just noticed that ritoky mentioned the same things and sqrt responded saying it was his posting style. I think that maintaining that posting style is going to keep him in a negative light for me because I won't get around to understanding him as much as I would like to. I have a lot more to say on the other players actually, but I don't have enough time right now. Will continue a bit later, and tomorrow is a holiday so I will have PLENTY of time to analyze and read cases. The players I am planning on covering in a bit more depth need a bit more research time for me. | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
##VOTE Epishade | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
I'm sorry I haven't been around recently. I have been having pretty bad (and unexpected) time management + internet access issues, which is why I haven't really had a chance to post much. I have a lot to catch up on it seems, but I am somewhat surprised that after all the heavy mtamburini talk that Sweetfrost got lynched in the end. Tbh Sweetfrost was never very high up on my list of possible scum, and that was probably because I ddin't get enough out of his posts to make a proper read. In short I am still confused as to why he seemed more suspicious than mtamburini, Yell0w or Epishade. I also noticed I was the only one who voted Epishade. I understandably didn't make a very strong case against him, as I was more contributing to other people's cases than making my own specific case, but I still think he is quite shady (i swear no pun was intended) and none of you seem to think so. Amiko, what are your thoughts on him? You seem to be trying to analyze people the most deeply, so I am interested to hear about why you don't consider him a likely suspect. Am I missing a few posts? It is possible I am given that I have been afk so much. sqrt: Yeah, you're in this one buddy  - my concern on your play is that although you have developed some players as potential scumreads, I don't see you strongly pushing on those players yet. However, you've been active in the game, and responsive. So, you are not a lynch for me day 1. That said, some of your reads are still weird to me.I thought someone asked this but rereading I was confused- @sqrt: How did you see meat as town? I feel like he posted next to nothing when you read him Epishade: Epishade is less town to me than sqrt or bunnies, but right now I don't think I would want to lynch him. I felt his early defense was reasonable... I feel he focused a little too much time on yell0w, but it seemed fine given that the thread has given so much attention to yell0w. Moving forward, I'd like to see epishade focus tamburini more if tamburini is his highest scumread, I may reevaluate based on how he goes.. Is this content still relevant? Are these still your current reads on these two players? What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right? Also, bunnies is coming across as so incredibly town that I am not sure it is genuine. Yes, this is a jump back on my previous decision about her, but only because she has been unfaltering recently to a degree that I am wondering if she is just REALLY good at blending in? Amiko too. No one seems to have questioned him much recently. Everyone just accepts the two of them as straight cut town. I don't think you're mafia just yet, but you also seem too on-the-ball to be vanilla town. You seem concerned about appearing as town too, which is what i read off of your constant posts regarding reads on people, but I do like that Amiko regularly contributes his thoughts (over sqrt who seems to post a lot but not say much) so much that is is possible for the rest of us to gain some perspective. However, I can't be sure that you're not feeding us bullshit. And yes, I did read this post and I do think it is very helpful that you have been helping so much with opinions and reads. I dunno though, maybe it comes across as you trying too hard? I am also suspicious because from what I am picking up, you seem to have the most influence here, more than our self-proclaimed leader and vigi, mtamburini. @all: Everyone looks up to Amiko and Eden and their reads. Is it good to be reliant on these two people? How do you know you can trust their reads? I'll admit that I am very persuaded by Eden's argument for tamb being sk, and I dislike being so easily persuaded. | ||
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dravernor
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dravernor
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dravernor
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So both bunnies and tamb got roleblocked? Interesting. I mean, tamb wasn't very subtle about having a role, assuming he has one. Pretty clear target for anyone wanting to roleblock him. Otherwise it could all just be a clever ruse to draw us off his scent. In this scenario, let us assume tamb is actually vigi, like he claimed. Could bunnies be sk if she isn't mafia herself? I mean, she was so towny that we all just went with her, because she was providing so much information. Her, Amiko and Eden are our primary read sources this game, and one of them is already gone. I am still really lost with how to read everyone. Yell0w too, and from the looks of it ritoky feels the same way: Roller coaster: - yell0w - Null - basically for me fluctuates from town to mafia with every post. some I read and it is like, you're mafia; then others I read and he's town. my most recent read on him is that he is a townie who was just playing bad, but I am sure he will post again and that will change. maybe I just can't read this guy. This is exactly how I feel about him too. I don't really have any further contribution to that. sqrt also seems to have been gathering more suspicion from all of us too. Right from day 1 I had a weird feeling about him, and probably because of his posting style. There hasn't really been much development, and I am still left in the dark on most of the people here. dfs seems pretty town to me, also a bit quiet, but I don't disagree with his reads. ritoky also looks town to me, even though he hasn't brought any massive game changing reads or contributions, but he hasn't done anything overtly suspicious. I'm not sure what to think of tamb; ofc this is mostly because of what other people have already suspected of him - this hasn't changed, nor have my views on Epishade. ahswtini and MM1 have been laying it low this game, but I am not entirely convinced they're mafia. They may look suspicious but they haven't done enough to arouse my interest as possible mafia just yet. I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me. Anyway, it is getting pretty close to voting time and I am still not sure whether to vote for Epishade or sqrt, or the other maybe candidates. Eden is someone I have also considered, but I am not more than 50% convinced he is mafia, and since he is bringing info to us I am unwilling for him to go just yet in the scenario we lose another useful townie. I am well aware I am somewhat useless in contributing new information; it is not one of my strong points, but I at least explain my reasoning behind my thoughts and expand a bit on them. @Yell0w my vote against Epishade was based on other people's thoughts on him previously, and then my small section saying why I agreed with them, but I seemed to be the only one pushing to lynch him. I was then afk for a long time due to electricity and internet issues and came back to find I was the only one who voted him. Yes, it does look suspicious, but I suppose I shouldn't have expected any less after making a post barely pushing him. I still don't have a strong case, based on the fact that I find it very difficult to determine what does and doesn't look scummy in a forum based game. I also somehow thought playing mafia would be less time consuming than it really is. @everyone: Just consider my possible scenario in which bunnies is a non town role and tamb is sk after all. My 'most likely' scum list right now, as I said above : Epishade and/or sqrt. On the fence : bunnies, tamb, Yell0w, maaaaybe Eden Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini | ||
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dravernor
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dravernor
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On May 05 2014 02:55 MysteryMeat1 wrote: ##vote dravernor she hasn't posted in almost 3 days. Yesterday I was at work all day and then I climbed a mountain. Prior to that I either had no power at home or no internet access for a few days in my minimal free time. Pretty shitty filtering, reading, quoting and posting from a phone, hence my lack of activity. But yeah, I understand it is suspicious looking. Can't help my circumstances though. | ||
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dravernor
Netherlands6175 Posts
sqrt, please be mafia. ##VOTE: sqrtofneg1 | ||
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