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Newbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 64

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iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9642 Posts
May 11 2014 22:00 GMT
#1261
Day 5


MysteryMeat1 the The Helix Worshiper was killed

You have 48 hours you must vote
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
Amiko
Profile Joined February 2014
United States1725 Posts
May 11 2014 22:00 GMT
#1262
Valenius
Profile Joined September 2010
United Kingdom1266 Posts
May 11 2014 22:01 GMT
#1263
27ninjabunnies
Profile Joined April 2014
United States2486 Posts
May 11 2014 22:06 GMT
#1264
Yep, I figured he was going to die.

So I like Meat's reads.

My Votes were going to be between Eden, Ahs, and Epishade today anyway.
I suspect the secret of personal attraction is locked up in our unique imperfections, flaws and frailties.~Hugh Mackay
MysteryMeat1
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States3292 Posts
May 11 2014 22:14 GMT
#1265
Gg
"Cause ya know, Style before victory." -The greatest mafia player alive
27ninjabunnies
Profile Joined April 2014
United States2486 Posts
May 11 2014 22:20 GMT
#1266
So Ahs, why should I not vote you?

Or Why should I not vote you over Eden?
I suspect the secret of personal attraction is locked up in our unique imperfections, flaws and frailties.~Hugh Mackay
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
May 11 2014 22:32 GMT
#1267
##VOTE: Yell0w

Pretty sure Epishade is town. Bunnies also still seems town. Yell0w isn't even trying to find the mafia, ahs is at least making a token effort. Will switch to ahswtini if needed to prevent vote-splitting but I'm not willing to vote myself, Epishade or bunnies.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Epishade
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States2267 Posts
May 12 2014 00:42 GMT
#1268
##Vote: Ahs

Sorry if you're town Ahs. It's hard to pick any of the others at this point, they just feel more townie to me than you do.
Pinhead Larry in the streets, Dirty Dan in the sheets.
27ninjabunnies
Profile Joined April 2014
United States2486 Posts
May 12 2014 03:42 GMT
#1269
Okay, I refuse to vote until you all talk. I need to get more reads.

I want everyone to give their top 2 lynches for the day.

Yell0w, you were talking a lot the first couple of days, but have recently slacked off very much.
I've let you go this long without being lynched even though you claimed mafia, why should I continue doing so?

Ahs, meat had a super good read on the roleblocker, and thnks you are mafia, then Eden. Why should we not lynch you and lynch Eden instead?

Epishade: Why is Ahs more scummy tthan Eden?

Eden: You won't vte on either me or Epishade, but Why Yell0w over Ahs?

I suspect the secret of personal attraction is locked up in our unique imperfections, flaws and frailties.~Hugh Mackay
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
May 12 2014 03:50 GMT
#1270
Top two are yellow then ahswtini

as noted earlier ahs is at least making some effort to solve game, yellow isn't, see night post for tambo for deets

posting from phone please excuse brevity and lack of links
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
Epishade
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States2267 Posts
May 12 2014 04:46 GMT
#1271
I've looked through Drav's and dfs' filters and just about every time Eden is mentioned, I see that they are either questioning his actions, or placing him in their scumlists. Eden's filter also has him putting Drav and dfs in his scumread pile just about every time he makes a read. Either he's a really independent mafia (I've never heard of mafia that don't directly work with their partners - like free-for-all lol), or he's probably town.

I've made a case on Ahs a couple pages back that I'll repost. Basically Drav townreads him for most of the game, with one post that for some reason she places him in his scumpile (maybe she realizes that she's been townreading him all game long and that might look bad for him if she were to get lynched, idk?)

I've since looked through dfs' filter since he got lynched. He doesn't say all that much about Ahs, but he kind of has the same writing stance that he takes with Ahs that he does with Drav - not much to say.

Here are all the times that dfs mentions Drav.

+ Show Spoiler +

ritoky, dravernor, ashwtini - can't say anything still. Too much other stuff to follow and they didn't really cought my attention yet.
----------------------------------------
dravernor - finally explained his thoughs. Some stuff of what he says makes sense to me, but some stuff look weird. The fact that there is not my of anything else from him to look into doesn't help. Again, there are better targets right now.
----------------------------------------
Yellow doesn't want to "waste" his vote on Eden (and the only suspicion he has on him is his "gut feeling") so he votes a dravernor who has the least interaction to anyone throughout the whole game, which makes him the easiest bw target right now (which is exactly what is happening as i see it). Then after Eden's post he immediately switches his vote back to Eden, because he calls you suspicios again. Suddenly not a waste of a vote anymore.

Still, the mafia who's hiding in plain sight is more dangerous, so:

##Vote: MysteryMeat1


Here are all the times that dfs mentions Ahs.

+ Show Spoiler +

I want to look at Epishade and ashwtini, but for now highest on my list are:
Yell0w, sqrt and Meat (mafia or sk) in no particular order.

I'll explain my thoughts on sqrt, Epishade and ashwtini later.
----------------------------------------
ahswtini - not much to look at with his posts. The only people he talked about were Yell0w ("on the fence", he said he didn't like him being not serious and that's all he said), mtamburini (agreed with Epishade on his 3 mafia theory and pointed mtamburini specificly, but, like most people, changed the read to town after the vigi claim) and Meat (i shared the same concerns with ahswtini here). That's it. Almost nothing. Although his suspicious for Meat D1 i understand, but he voted even though Meat was banned and there were other, better suspects, in my opinion. The lack of reads on anyone else and an "outer" vote looks really bad for him.
----------------------------------------
So, based on that, my list of highest suspects in descending order is:

Yell0w, sqrt, ahswtini, Meat and Epishade.


Here's my case on Ahs from before when Tamburini asked us who to shoot, after Drav had been lynched.

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 08 2014 10:45 mtamburini wrote:
I think shooting tonight to give us a ML tomorrow if I hit correctly might be the best idea. I would like everyone to build a case on why I shouldnt shoot them and 2 people I should shoot.


You're giving us HOMEWORK!?!

I'm doing a lot of digging here to figure out the game. My reads haven't always been the best, but I've retracted them whenever I admitted fault. I hope that's a good enough reason not to shoot me.

Here are my thoughts on the current situation though.

Eden really wants Yellow dead. I've looked up the interactions that Yellow and Drav have had so far and, from what I can tell, they don't look too well like mafia partners. I urge you to look through their filters too and come to your own conclusion. Yellow and Drav both have each other as suspicious, and Yellow also votes for Drav before switching his vote to Eden.

I think Yellow made a weak case to not vote for Drav just because he didn't like Eden, and it's being interpreted as him deflecting from his mafia partner. The only reason he didn't vote for Drav is because Eden voted for Drav and Yellow thinks that Eden is scum.

I don't think Yellow's suspicion on Eden is particularly warranted, but that's the reason he voted for dfs as I see it.

Apart from Yellow, there's Ahs, who I think is a better target.

I looked through the filter between Drav and Ahs and came up with some thoughts.

Ahs doesn't talk all that much about Drav in his filter. Every mention of Drav is either asking why Meat voted for her (Drav's a girl I guess?), and this:

On May 08 2014 01:44 ahswtini wrote:
Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online...


This is the only conversation that ahswtini attempts to initiate with Drav. I would think a mafia mistake is not having enough conversation with your partners, right? Since you know what your team is thinking, you don't really need to converse with each other to figure out their thought process. I think that's what happened here, is that ahswtini was attempting to talk a bit to Drav to add to the conversation between the two to make them seem less mafia-like.

Now, if you look at Drav's filter, and search through all the instances she mentions ahswtini, you can see that she's been kind of questioning his actions throughout the game, but still giving him a townread, except for one time where she lists him as scum in her reads for some reason idk.

It'd be a pain to go through and quote everything because Drav's posts are very long, so I'm just going to paste everything I can find about ahswtini that Drav mentions (in chronological order):

+ Show Spoiler +
What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right?
--------------
I'm not sure what to think of tamb; ofc this is mostly because of what other people have already suspected of him - this hasn't changed, nor have my views on Epishade. ahswtini and MM1 have been laying it low this game, but I am not entirely convinced they're mafia. They may look suspicious but they haven't done enough to arouse my interest as possible mafia just yet. I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me.
--------------
Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini
--------------
I actually agree. I think Meat is town.
I think dfs is town.
I think bunnies might be town.
I think tamb is town.

I think Epishade is scum.
I think Eden might be scum.
I think ahs might be scum.
I think Yell0w might be scum.
--------------
ahswtini if you knew how long it took me to write my blogs you would know why it has taken me so long to post after getting home i don't really see what is so mafia about ahs (and myself either infact) - he hasn't been interacting a lot, sure, and he hasn't been putting pressure on anyone, but maybe he is busy too? I dunno, I only suspected him in the first place because a lot of you seemed to be making short cases against him, reading into them. But I'm still not entirely sure. 50:50.
--------------
On May 08 2014 05:16 dravernor wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 05:11 ahswtini wrote:
Ok I'm unvoting for now.

On May 08 2014 05:02 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
i explained already ahs, on why i switched my vote to drav....

The way lynch system works is that both drav and I are tied at 3 votes, drav is going to come online vote for me in order to save herself, even though she thinks im town. Then if i switch my vote to drav, i'll still be the one getting lynched. Also ahs, if you believe that both dfs and i are devo scum as you posted earlier, then switch your vote to dfs... Its pretty clear that i'm not going to get lynched.

Sorry I didn't notice you'd voted for drav, I just saw you place two town on that list.

Again, Mafia were certain that mtamburini was going to shoot yellow tonight. They let it go through because it would have lost us the game immediately if it had actually gone through. If yellow was Mafia, I don't see why his buddies would just let him die. If, as Mafia I wanted to keep scum yellow alive, I would have blocked and killed mtamburini last night.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Hmm.



Drav has that reply to Ahs at the end there (second to last post in the spoiler) based on what he was asking her from the above quote. This is their only interaction with each other and in it, Drav reaffirms his townieness.

I think Ahs is a better shot than Yellow.

Then, idk Meat I guess?

Try not to shoot Eden though.


Many of the lists that dfs and Drav place Ahs in are the same lists that they place each other in.

And, honestly, any one of you guys could be town to me. I feel that I'm making the best guess I can at this point. Out of anybody in here though, really. It was either Ahs, or you Bunny, as you've been consistently townread the entire game and are still alive, and that raises some concerns for me. You have your paranoias about me and Eden, I have mine about you. But I still think Ahs is a better pick over you right now, so he's getting my vote then.
Pinhead Larry in the streets, Dirty Dan in the sheets.
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 12 2014 09:23 GMT
#1272
RIP meat, I'm sorry I doubted you the entire game.
Ok going to post my own thoughts first before I respond to the case against me.

First, yellow is still top town for me. He leads the push to lynch dfs, when there could be an equally strong case made for me. I've been under so much suspicion that Mafia have no reason to bus one of their own so early on in the day. This is followed by Epishade who posts some sound reasoning for his vote against dfs.
On May 10 2014 05:44 Epishade wrote:
Nobody else do I really consider to be mafia right now other than him. I think Dfs is mafia at this point. Then, if Dfs flips scum, that clears Ahs for me, as well as Yellow and probably Meat too, as those guys have been his biggest scumreads all game so far. He's been in my potential mafia list the whole game too, and nothing has convinced me he's not so far.

Here, he clears me as well as Yellow who I'm certain is town, and meat who we now know is town. He's not pushing any of town as suspects. Although Epishade later retracts his clearing of me, that's reasonable if I consider it from his point of view.

And now I get to Eden, who has been pushing Yellow the entire game. He shows his concern about lynching dfs, and questions why I'm not being pushed for lynch. Now that dfs has flipped, this looks incredibly scummy. I know I expressed similar doubts and ended up voting for bunnies, but I know I'm innocent. Eden finally begrudgingly votes for dfs, but his reason for it is so weak.
On May 11 2014 01:54 Eden1892 wrote:
Well, if my options are dfs or bunnies then it's gotta be dfs. I really don't want that to be my options though, I have a horrible feeling about the fact that ahswtini is the only one besides me not on dfs right now.

##VOTE dfs

It sounds like his hands were forced. If he believed yellow was so scummy, why not vote for him? It's not like he can't start a new lynch wagon, unless he's scared of looking like an outlier. His vote on dfs was nothing more than a last minute bandwagon on his doomed comrade. Because of this, Eden is the most likely of the one or two remaining scum.

##Vote: Eden1892
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 12 2014 09:32 GMT
#1273
On May 12 2014 13:46 Epishade wrote:
I've looked through Drav's and dfs' filters and just about every time Eden is mentioned, I see that they are either questioning his actions, or placing him in their scumlists. Eden's filter also has him putting Drav and dfs in his scumread pile just about every time he makes a read. Either he's a really independent mafia (I've never heard of mafia that don't directly work with their partners - like free-for-all lol), or he's probably town.

I've made a case on Ahs a couple pages back that I'll repost. Basically Drav townreads him for most of the game, with one post that for some reason she places him in his scumpile (maybe she realizes that she's been townreading him all game long and that might look bad for him if she were to get lynched, idk?)

I've since looked through dfs' filter since he got lynched. He doesn't say all that much about Ahs, but he kind of has the same writing stance that he takes with Ahs that he does with Drav - not much to say.

Here are all the times that dfs mentions Drav.

+ Show Spoiler +

ritoky, dravernor, ashwtini - can't say anything still. Too much other stuff to follow and they didn't really cought my attention yet.
----------------------------------------
dravernor - finally explained his thoughs. Some stuff of what he says makes sense to me, but some stuff look weird. The fact that there is not my of anything else from him to look into doesn't help. Again, there are better targets right now.
----------------------------------------
Yellow doesn't want to "waste" his vote on Eden (and the only suspicion he has on him is his "gut feeling") so he votes a dravernor who has the least interaction to anyone throughout the whole game, which makes him the easiest bw target right now (which is exactly what is happening as i see it). Then after Eden's post he immediately switches his vote back to Eden, because he calls you suspicios again. Suddenly not a waste of a vote anymore.

Still, the mafia who's hiding in plain sight is more dangerous, so:

##Vote: MysteryMeat1


Here are all the times that dfs mentions Ahs.

+ Show Spoiler +

I want to look at Epishade and ashwtini, but for now highest on my list are:
Yell0w, sqrt and Meat (mafia or sk) in no particular order.

I'll explain my thoughts on sqrt, Epishade and ashwtini later.
----------------------------------------
ahswtini - not much to look at with his posts. The only people he talked about were Yell0w ("on the fence", he said he didn't like him being not serious and that's all he said), mtamburini (agreed with Epishade on his 3 mafia theory and pointed mtamburini specificly, but, like most people, changed the read to town after the vigi claim) and Meat (i shared the same concerns with ahswtini here). That's it. Almost nothing. Although his suspicious for Meat D1 i understand, but he voted even though Meat was banned and there were other, better suspects, in my opinion. The lack of reads on anyone else and an "outer" vote looks really bad for him.
----------------------------------------
So, based on that, my list of highest suspects in descending order is:

Yell0w, sqrt, ahswtini, Meat and Epishade.


Here's my case on Ahs from before when Tamburini asked us who to shoot, after Drav had been lynched.

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 08 2014 10:45 mtamburini wrote:
I think shooting tonight to give us a ML tomorrow if I hit correctly might be the best idea. I would like everyone to build a case on why I shouldnt shoot them and 2 people I should shoot.


You're giving us HOMEWORK!?!

I'm doing a lot of digging here to figure out the game. My reads haven't always been the best, but I've retracted them whenever I admitted fault. I hope that's a good enough reason not to shoot me.

Here are my thoughts on the current situation though.

Eden really wants Yellow dead. I've looked up the interactions that Yellow and Drav have had so far and, from what I can tell, they don't look too well like mafia partners. I urge you to look through their filters too and come to your own conclusion. Yellow and Drav both have each other as suspicious, and Yellow also votes for Drav before switching his vote to Eden.

I think Yellow made a weak case to not vote for Drav just because he didn't like Eden, and it's being interpreted as him deflecting from his mafia partner. The only reason he didn't vote for Drav is because Eden voted for Drav and Yellow thinks that Eden is scum.

I don't think Yellow's suspicion on Eden is particularly warranted, but that's the reason he voted for dfs as I see it.

Apart from Yellow, there's Ahs, who I think is a better target.

I looked through the filter between Drav and Ahs and came up with some thoughts.

Ahs doesn't talk all that much about Drav in his filter. Every mention of Drav is either asking why Meat voted for her (Drav's a girl I guess?), and this:

On May 08 2014 01:44 ahswtini wrote:
Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online...


This is the only conversation that ahswtini attempts to initiate with Drav. I would think a mafia mistake is not having enough conversation with your partners, right? Since you know what your team is thinking, you don't really need to converse with each other to figure out their thought process. I think that's what happened here, is that ahswtini was attempting to talk a bit to Drav to add to the conversation between the two to make them seem less mafia-like.

Now, if you look at Drav's filter, and search through all the instances she mentions ahswtini, you can see that she's been kind of questioning his actions throughout the game, but still giving him a townread, except for one time where she lists him as scum in her reads for some reason idk.

It'd be a pain to go through and quote everything because Drav's posts are very long, so I'm just going to paste everything I can find about ahswtini that Drav mentions (in chronological order):

+ Show Spoiler +
What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right?
--------------
I'm not sure what to think of tamb; ofc this is mostly because of what other people have already suspected of him - this hasn't changed, nor have my views on Epishade. ahswtini and MM1 have been laying it low this game, but I am not entirely convinced they're mafia. They may look suspicious but they haven't done enough to arouse my interest as possible mafia just yet. I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me.
--------------
Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini
--------------
I actually agree. I think Meat is town.
I think dfs is town.
I think bunnies might be town.
I think tamb is town.

I think Epishade is scum.
I think Eden might be scum.
I think ahs might be scum.
I think Yell0w might be scum.
--------------
ahswtini if you knew how long it took me to write my blogs you would know why it has taken me so long to post after getting home i don't really see what is so mafia about ahs (and myself either infact) - he hasn't been interacting a lot, sure, and he hasn't been putting pressure on anyone, but maybe he is busy too? I dunno, I only suspected him in the first place because a lot of you seemed to be making short cases against him, reading into them. But I'm still not entirely sure. 50:50.
--------------
On May 08 2014 05:16 dravernor wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 05:11 ahswtini wrote:
Ok I'm unvoting for now.

On May 08 2014 05:02 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
i explained already ahs, on why i switched my vote to drav....

The way lynch system works is that both drav and I are tied at 3 votes, drav is going to come online vote for me in order to save herself, even though she thinks im town. Then if i switch my vote to drav, i'll still be the one getting lynched. Also ahs, if you believe that both dfs and i are devo scum as you posted earlier, then switch your vote to dfs... Its pretty clear that i'm not going to get lynched.

Sorry I didn't notice you'd voted for drav, I just saw you place two town on that list.

Again, Mafia were certain that mtamburini was going to shoot yellow tonight. They let it go through because it would have lost us the game immediately if it had actually gone through. If yellow was Mafia, I don't see why his buddies would just let him die. If, as Mafia I wanted to keep scum yellow alive, I would have blocked and killed mtamburini last night.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Hmm.



Drav has that reply to Ahs at the end there (second to last post in the spoiler) based on what he was asking her from the above quote. This is their only interaction with each other and in it, Drav reaffirms his townieness.

I think Ahs is a better shot than Yellow.

Then, idk Meat I guess?

Try not to shoot Eden though.


Many of the lists that dfs and Drav place Ahs in are the same lists that they place each other in.

And, honestly, any one of you guys could be town to me. I feel that I'm making the best guess I can at this point. Out of anybody in here though, really. It was either Ahs, or you Bunny, as you've been consistently townread the entire game and are still alive, and that raises some concerns for me. You have your paranoias about me and Eden, I have mine about you. But I still think Ahs is a better pick over you right now, so he's getting my vote then.

Ok I'm sure we can all agree that out of the remaining potential scum (excluding me), drav and dfs were the most suspicious and (dare I say, weak) members of the team. The fact that dfs's allies abandoned him in his lynch vote shows to me that they were the scum who were most likely to die, and therefore should fix their reads and posts in the knowledge that their filters will be scrutinised after their flip.

Therefore, if the reasons for lynching me, and clearing Eden are based on what dfs and drav have written, then their set-up has worked.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
Yell0w
Profile Joined April 2014
120 Posts
May 12 2014 12:57 GMT
#1274
So to answer bunnies, top 2 lynches are I think clearly Eden and ahs, I would prefer lynching Eden right now though.

And you shouldn't lynch me because I'm town, so that's that.

So I want to lynch Eden now because first of all he was one of the 2 persons named by meat as being mafia before he died and now he's not even trying anymore to give reasons for lynching me, he wants to lynch me because I'm not trying to find mafia? I started the vote against the last mafia we killed and gave a case against him during the night, how is that not trying to find mafia? I know I didn't post much yesterday, but dfs was mafia and he was getting killed, there was nothing else to say. As ahs noted, Eden just voted for dfs because he didn't have any other good target and didn't want to be an outlier. He said being an outlier was a mafia trait, so obviously he would try not to be one no matter what. As for the fact he voted against dravernor, I can easily see that as dravernor wanting to die anyways, she didn't seem to be into the game much, and they saw it as a perfect way for Eden to clear himself as town, it's no like dravernor was a roleblocker or something, she was a godfather in a game where there doesn't seem to be a cop. Eden defended the roleblocker, dfs, pretty hard, but did end up voting for him because he didn't have a choice if he wanted to look town.

##Vote: Eden1892
LoneMeow
Profile Joined June 2013
Finland1396 Posts
May 12 2014 13:44 GMT
#1275
Vote (slave) count:

Eden1892 (2): ahswtini, Yell0w
ahswtini (1): Epishade
Yell0w (1): Eden1892

Not voting (1): 27ninjabunnies

Currently, Eden1892 is set to be lynched.
Deadline is Tuesday, May 13 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ).
Voting is mandatory!


+ Show Spoiler [Vote counter log] +

VOTE: Eden1892 voted Yell0w (post)
VOTE: Epishade voted Ahswtini (ahswtini) (post)
VOTE: ahswtini voted Eden1892 (post)
VOTE: Yell0w voted Eden1892 (post)
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
May 12 2014 23:03 GMT
#1276
Some more thoughts:

- I went back and looked at the dfs lynch. The only outlier at day's end aside from dfs himself was ahswtini voting for 27ninjabunnies. Check the votes today, and ahswtini, with a far better chance of getting bunnies lynched... is voting for me, and not commenting on bunnies at all. Please.

- Aside from that, and assuming there is another mafia teammate out there, we know dfs's teammates bailed on him. Thus, what we should not be looking at is when people voted for dfs, but why. People who either built a decent case on dfs, or voted dfs after asking him some questions and trying to discern his alignment, or otherwise showed clear deliberation about the dfs lynch, are town. People who just parked a vote on dfs and peaced out are scum selling out their teammates. Here's a breakdown of everyone's thoughts on dfs last turn correlating to their vote:

Yell0w: Parks vote on dfs, only posts one more time in the thread to whine at me for finding him suspicious. He claims to have "already made a case on dfs," but I can only find posts here and here that even approach the level of "making a case," and in neither instance do they satisfy my understanding of what a case should be. The first post is "well no one will go on my REAL scumread, and I really don't want to lynch dravernor [editor's note: who was scum], so I'll vote for dfs instead." That's not a case. The second post is a decent point about the shady interactions between dravernor and dfs, but not exactly what I'd call a "case." Recall that at the time we only knew dravernor was scum, and dravernor didn't have significant interactions with anyone. If I were in Yell0w's shoes looking at the same data, I would be asking more questions or at least listening to others' posts on the matter; hell, Yell0w himself is incriminated by the same logic, since dravernor didn't significantly interact with anybody and Yell0w didn't significantly interact with dravernor except to do anything in his power not to vote for dravernor the day she was lynched. There's a pretty good case for Yell0w busing dfs for credit here, because he made an appeal to a by-no-means conclusive case against dfs and bailed on the thread for the day after that.

bunnies: More or less just followed Epishade's case onto dfs here. Also fits the bill for "busing teammate," though she stuck around afterward to talk to people and further develop her reads. Of the two I think it's obvious that Yell0w is the more likely scum candidate.

Epishade: Makes his case here. Self-explanatory, this is clearly the result of reasoned, deliberate detective work, not a bus.

Eden: Finally votes for dfs here after looking for reasons not to vote dfs here. If dfs was deliberately bused for town credit, this ain't it. Eden has no reason to do this, having already spearheaded the dravernor lynch, and being on the tail end of a scum lynch doesn't get you town credit anyway. I don't think this makes Eden more town, just that it makes him an invalid candidate for the whole "dfs's teammates sold him downriver" idea.

So the plausible candidates for a fourth mafia, to ahs's third, based on last turn are Yell0w or, less likely but still possible, bunnies. I think it's obviously Yell0w of those two.

- Yell0w's arguments against me are manipulative and wrong:

1) He says he wants to kill me because meat said so. He's ignoring -- and hoping you'll all ignore with him -- the fact that meat said to kill ahswtini first, and that ahswtini is voting for me and was voting for me when Yell0w put his vote down. This is the main thing that's driving me to think that Yell0w and ahswtini are partners and that we have four mafia. If Yell0w were really following meat's reads like he's insinuating he is, why isn't he going in the order that meat said? The obvious answer is that it's LYLO, he and ahs are teammates and he knows that he can win it this turn by getting me killed instead of his teammate. And if he's really town following meat's reads, why isn't he really skeptical about the fact that meat's top scumread is voting for me?

2) He says I'm "not even trying anymore to give reasons to lynching [him]" and then goes on to name the reason I voted to lynch him. Please. He's acting like "not trying to find the mafia" isn't a valid reason to kill someone at LYLO. It's completely valid, I've made the case nearly a week ago now for that and he still hasn't found the time to rebut it satisfactorily. He says he's not mafia because he lead the vote on dfs, when that's demonstrably not true; I've covered this earlier in this post. Most damning to me is the line after that: "I know I didn't post much yesterday, but dfs was mafia and he was getting killed, there was nothing else to say." You're kidding me, right? There's at least one mafia and very likely two mafia still out there, and this guy says there was nothing else to say. This proves to me that Yell0w was just busing dfs for credit. If he were actually town and sure about dfs getting lynched, he would spend the remaining time trying to find the other teammate(s) hiding out.

3) He says I just voted dfs because I didn't have a better target. Yup, after a lot of thinking about the game and finding myself unable to convince people to vote for my main suspects -- and I certainly tried; I thought the fact that the people everyone was scumreading just piled onto dfs was sketch and I pointed it out, no one responded to it -- I went on dfs over bunnies. I think that was an obvious choice regardless of my alignment. I'm not going to argue this makes me more townie, only that it's manipulative to say it makes me scummy. It's null. The choice was too clear no matter what.

4) He says I bused dravernor for town credit. Again, please. Where's the proof of this? Epishade's already addressed this point pretty well I think, you'd have to argue that dravernor was playing her entire game from D1 just to set herself up for me to bus her on D3 because we were scumreading each other the whole game. That argument that can only come from trying to make a retroactive justification for a conclusion you've already adopted. Any honest assessment of my interactions with dravernor and dfs has to conclude I'm obviously town.

tl;dr: read it

If I move off Yell0w, I'm only moving off of Yell0w to prevent vote-splitting. I'm the current lynch target which means all three of Epishade/bunnies/me need to unite our votes. If bunnies and Epishade won't vote Yell0w but will vote ahswtini, I'll move to ahswtini, because I think Yell0w and ahswtini are scum. If they won't vote either, we lose anyway. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
27ninjabunnies
Profile Joined April 2014
United States2486 Posts
May 13 2014 02:55 GMT
#1277
On May 13 2014 08:03 Eden1892 wrote:
Some more thoughts:

- I went back and looked at the dfs lynch. The only outlier at day's end aside from dfs himself was ahswtini voting for 27ninjabunnies. Check the votes today, and ahswtini, with a far better chance of getting bunnies lynched... is voting for me, and not commenting on bunnies at all. Please.


I'm not sure how he would have a better chance at getting me lynched over you. Please explain that.



But saying that, there is a high possibility that mafia voted for their partner(s).

I'd much rather lynch Eden this game than Ahs..
I suspect the secret of personal attraction is locked up in our unique imperfections, flaws and frailties.~Hugh Mackay
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
May 13 2014 03:02 GMT
#1278
"Far better" was bad wording, but ahs's odds certainly are better since he only has to convince two people instead of three. You're missing the point anyway if you're focusing on that. If ahs really thought you were the scummiest player yesterday, why is ahs not even talking about you today?
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
27ninjabunnies
Profile Joined April 2014
United States2486 Posts
May 13 2014 03:10 GMT
#1279
No I agree. I find it absolutely weird that ahs votes on me yesterday, and doesnt even attempt to push me today.
I suspect the secret of personal attraction is locked up in our unique imperfections, flaws and frailties.~Hugh Mackay
Eden1892
Profile Joined March 2014
United States5866 Posts
May 13 2014 03:19 GMT
#1280
The clearest explanation for ahswtini's sudden shift, in my opinion, is that the idea that we're lynching between ahs and me works out well for ahs. town!ahs, after having stated explicitly that bunnies is the top suspect, would be back to pushing on bunnies today instead of dropping it completely without any explanation, or at least would make some sort of effort to explain the change of heart on bunnies's guilt. scum!ahs, assuming I'm right and there are four mafia left, is quite content to make it a lynch between ahs and me, knowing only one more mislynch is necessary to get the win. scum!ahs is content with this because ahs's teammate will vote to kill me as well, and all the mafia need is one town player to misstep and vote me for it to be all over with.

I think the mafia team are clearly ahswtini and Yell0w. I don't think Epishade wants Yell0w today, so in order to make this work...

##UNVOTE
##VOTE ahswtini
“I like to see myself as the swim instructor that trows kids in the pool shouting at them they should try to not drink too much water.” - Koshi
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